Hurricane Harvey was the optimal entry point for the beaten down oil sector. Over the past month, returns range in the ballpark of 20-40%, thanks to a surge in crude — pushing it to 8 month highs. The median return for the oil drillers, 1 month out, is +18%.
Although crude is at 8 month highs, it really has gone nowhere in the big scheme of things. Crude stocks were down ~40% YTD, before this run. After Harvey hit, WTI dropped because refineries went offline — creating a rich spread between Brent and WTI. Now that supply is back online, WTI has jumped — but the Brent spread remains. This, to me, is a mystery.
While the temptation to go long drillers is palpable, it makes more sense to buy the refiners, since they profit from the WTI-Brent and heightened crackspreads — thanks to supply disruptions.
My gut instinct has been wrong with crude, but seasonality suggests now is the very worst time to be long oil.
I had to fish for this for a few minutes — taking precious time away from my day of eating gateway meats.
China’s cyber watch down pressed its boot down on several tech firms for violating cyber laws — including BIDU, WB and Tencent.
The Cyberspace Administration of China said violators would receive ‘maximum penalty’ for failing to remove FAKE NEWS and porn. Plus, content that could be misconstrued for inciting ‘ethic tension’ and ‘social order’ were pressed upon an innocent, unsuspecting, Chinese public of dog eaters and plastic rice producers.
“The internet does not operate outside of the law… the CAC will seriously implement the new cybersecurity law and other regulations to increase territorial supervision and enforcement efforts regarding the internet,” said the CAC.
The subsequent result of this regulatory action is bloodshed, flowing freely throughout Wall Street.
Here are some of the losers in the China sector.
This pin action is way outside the ordinary trading action for Chicoms and has resulted in the Exodus oscillator swinging hard into oversold territory. The level of technical damage is so severe our overbought/oversold oscillator is at the lowest level since December 2016. This is crash tier pin action.
Admittedly, I was out sauntering while this ordeal happened. N. Korea’s foreign minister called for an impromptu press conference outside the UN in NYC, menacing to shoot down American bombers — saying Trump had all but declared war on them.
“North Korea has the right to shoot down U.S. warplanes as part of its right to self-defense under the United Nations charter.”
“all options are on the table for North Korean response…”
“The whole world should clearly remember it was the US who first declared war on our country,” Ri said to reporters in New York as quoted by Reuters.
For some odd reason, this had a profoundly negative effect on stocks, particularly those domiciled in Asia. Unfortunately, I happen to be long a sundry of Asian centric equities, one of which that promoted university in China. I cannot describe it any other way, so I’ll just say it. My ass is being bitten by pitbull — as I run away, indecorously, through a minefield. Scratch that, I haven’t sold anything yet, so I’m just getting chewed on — in a manner that is completely intolerable. There is a heavy rarefied air on Wall Street today — with the Nasdaq off by 60, WTI +2%, gold +1.1%, dollar +0.92% v euro, BTC +4.6% and bond yields dropping lower.
I have two totally different portfolios running at the same time in Exodus, one of which is quantitative, the other discretionary.
The discretionary portfolio is off by 2.8%, only buoyed by a monster gain in UAN. My BEDU, OLED, AAOI and SMI positions have been taken outside and beaten like a dirty rug.
My systematic portfolio, one that only depends on the AI in Exodus, is up 0.6%.
Now I can look at this two ways, one ashamed for being crushed by my own robots, or thrilled that my own testicular failures have prove that the future of investing lies within the boundaries and disciplines that man creates, managed by machines. Either way, I’m getting my balls jingled for me — hit aside with a baseball bat.
The stocks that rose the fastest are getting flushed with speed.
Amongst the losers are BEDU (-10%), EVTC (-10%), SFUN (-9%), TRIP (-8.8%).
You get the picture.
I’d like to see the bastards try an army draft to build up enough manpower to defeat the enemies they’re creating today. Who needs any of this shit? Who asked for it?
Good morning misfits, I hope you had a solid 3 years of shut eye last night. My health has made marked improvements over last night and I no longer feel as if laying on my deathbed. The President’s Twitter account is silent so far this morning, likely due to General Kelly chasing him around the White House this morning, hoping to stop The Donald from declaring war on the NFL.
Futures are slightly lower and the dollar is ripping to the upside, higher by 0.67% v the euro — a forlorn development for S&P bulls. S&P futs are -2, BTC +2.7%, and WTI/Gold essentially flat.
This is a do-nothing but bitch and moan about the rent type of morning.
Over in the analyst community, a craven place of ill repute — filled with spinsters and grifters, it’s quite the busy morning.
Who’s in charge of doling out such titles anyway? Is there a chance, perhaps, someone in the media could title me “The Blogging Emperor” — enabling me to make wide sweeping proclamations about the future of online media?
The craven vultures from CNBC are out with a fresh story this evening, discussing “The Commodity King’s” stance on gold and how it’s heading ‘demonstrably’ higher.
“A year from now, gold will be demonstrably higher than it is right now,” The Gartman Letter’s founder told “Futures Now” in a recent interview. “I would certainly think we could see $1400 [an ounce] in dollar terms.”
“This is a correction but let’s understand the last rally that we had took off from $1200 to $1370. The fact that we’ve fallen back below $1300 I think is relatively inconsequential,” he added.
“I am not a gold bug. I don’t believe the world is going to come to an end. I don’t think you own gold because you think governments are going to be collapsing around the world,” he said.
His reason to own gold: Central banks and easy money.
“The monetary authorities are all still remaining expansionary,” noted Gartman, given that easy central bank policy tends to undermine major currencies like the dollar and euro. “In that instance, the one currency that will probably do the best of all is gold.”
He doesn’t believe the Federal Reserve’s intention to start reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October will be a headwind for gold. The unwinding of the Fed’s crisis-era policy “is going to take five or six years. This is not something that will occur overnight,” he said.
I’m so glad that I sold the last of my gold position on Friday. There isn’t any reason to be on the same side of a Dennis Gartman trade, not now, not ever. This whole Commodity King business is awfully tiresome. It reminds me of boiler room tactics, where some brokers would declare themselves to be child prodigies in investing — born geniuses, sent to a phone bank inside of a third rate firm to save the average investor from the dreadful underperformance of white shoe firms.
Even still, a 7% move from current levels isn’t exactly something to beat off to. The idea that gold is set to trade ‘demonstrably’ higher because the Fed is set to tighten their balance sheet by $4.5 trillion over 5 years is nonsensical, inane, and tragically stupid.
I had a rather uneventful afternoon of meetings, bookended by snacks. I started off the day with the darkest, most thickest, coffee you’ve ever seen in your life. I dubbed it ‘the most evil cup of Joe these northern lands have ever seen’ before sipping it.
I had an early lunch, which consisted of a dozen veggie sushi rolls — and then it dawned on me: I really, truly, don’t care about dietary restrictions, animals, or even debilitating illnesses. Then why on earth am I punishing myself to fetter out my days as a lowly weak vegan? Already I am able to see the effects of a meatless diet. My bench has been halved, my gut doubled, and my overall health is very meek and meager — a ham and egger lifestyle if I’ve ever seen one. I shot over to the local grocer, being all rebellious and shit, and purchased a gateway meat: tuna steaks and some smoked salmon.
When I got home, I ate half the package of salmon, which was marinated in herbs and vodka. I then made myself a faggot milkshake of chocolate almond milk, banana, and a spoonful of peanut butter.
I saw Dunkirk for the first time in theaters the other day and was dumbfounded by it. As many of you know, I consider myself to be a foremost expert in the cinema arts, having dedicated two full years of frantic viewership of all the greats — consuming information on a scale that could only be described as ‘industrial.’
Dunkirk was, by far, the finest war film ever made.
What it lacked in gripping dialogue, it made up for, and more, in an atmospheric setting which is without peer.
I am heading out to see it again soon, just to confirm what I thought I had witnessed the other night: a once in a generation display of cinematic greatness.
The futures are opening soon. I’m expecting MOAR gains and have a general idea what I’ll be doing next week. My health is still poor, and my head is whirring with a drunken dizziness that only stops when I sleep.
No one cares about the national anthem, unless you live down south — where true patriotism lives. The ironic part about southern patriotism is that they’re loyal to a flag and a nation that laid waste to their people during the civil war.
Psyops had a profound effect on them.
Post President Trump’s public shaming of those NFL players ‘taking the knee’ during the anthem — now everyone is taking the knee. There’s some MLB player who was born inside of a base taking the knee, as well as the entire Pittsburgh Steelers team opting out of the whole business.
I’m sure there’s more — but I really don’t care that much about it.
Let’s craft a new anthem, and hire Hans Zimmer to write it. I favor this score, haunting tunes juxtaposed with a little time bomb ticking action.
You’re eating dinner with your lovely family. There’s a giant turkey in the middle of the table, perfectly brown, adorned with edible flowers. The incandescent light bulbs warmly light the room at dusk, setting a pleasant mood in an otherwise normal late Sunday afternoon.
“Margaret, will you please pass the dairy free butter?”
“Certainly, dear. Is there anything else that I could do for you?”
You hear a subtle, yet distinctive, knock on the front door — almost like little birds pecking away at the heavy teak. You place your dinner napkin on the right side of your plate, and walk towards the front door. Almost reaching the doorknob, you look back at your wife for a moment who has an oddly blank look upon her face, as if she was frozen in time — when the entire door is kicked off its hinges, with the force of a Rhinosaurus, crashing into your 14th century Chinese pottery that was once the mantle piece of your entrance foyer.
In comes a man of extreme bulk and brawn, a terrible looking visage is scribbled upon his face by a maker who could only emanate from hell itself.
Your wife, scared for her life and the kids, makes a quick escape with little Johnny and Gretchen, out the back door — leaving you all alone with this beast.
He grabs you by the collar, points his colt 45 pistol right into your nose. You could smell the gunpowder distinctly and get the sense the gun had recently been used to kill.
He says, “listen to me very quietly.”
“Yes, what is it, anything. Do you want money? I have some upstairs in the safe.”
“I don’t want your money, or your fancy things.”
“Well, what do you want? Name it.”
“I want your best stock pick and I want it right now.”
The problem with American politics is that the people demand to be entertained, as they feverishly engorge themselves with Nando, cheesed doodles, along with any number of strong narcotics and booze. More or less, much of America is populated by varmints, both new and old, perverted, slobbish people who festoon their living quarters with degeneracy and live out villainous lives.
Here’s Trump weighing in on NFL kneelers and how owners should deal with them.
The President has now entered the red zone in politics, messing with her favorite pastime — fool’s ball. Will this latest gambit pay off? Or, will an assault on the CIA’s favorite deflection be his downfall?
My personal opinion, not that it should mean more than anyone else’s, is that the President shouldn’t get up on stages, stumping for people with the last name ‘Strange’ — calling for multi-millionaire fools-ball players to be fired for kneeling during the anthem. Instead, he should’ve dispatched an Anthony Scaramucci type figure onto the public, cursing, using terms like ‘fughetiboutit’, to discuss this very important matter. This jester could’ve said all of the things Trump said, AND MORE, without sapping the office of the Presidency from whatever semblance of dignity it had left in it. For the sake of the nation, and for our cherished institutions, being back the court jester. We’ve already brought back other fine institutions, like family monarch and the aristocracy, feudal lords, and clandestine forms of slavery — why not this?
It feels good being back in the saddle, throwing bowling balls at you misfits in the alley, blocking the pastoral backdrop. I booked the gains in XIV, segued them over to BEDU — because the Chinese are good at school. By the end of the trading session, my gains redoubled and redoubled again.
You can try to stop this train that I’ve created for myself — but it will only get you killed. Like a frozen rope dangling from a broken crane — you’re entirely useless.
I’ve had good times around these parts for a decade plus. During that time I’ve been gracious to all of my readers, offering treats and special stories for their entertainment. All of that has ended today. From now on, you’re my entertainment. I will now watch you make fools out of yourselves trying to stop me — a train traveling at speeds that defy the laws of physics.
You saw the markets march higher throughout the session. Bears are about to get their dicks cut off again, for the third time over the past year. They keep getting their penises reattached, only to be grabbed up and mugged again, placed inside the dick guillotine for expeditious chopping.
“The Fly” is heading out now — with money bags in tow.
