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Yearly Archives: 2015

I AM PERMANENTLY BULLISH

What a stupid thing to say, no? After all, how can one be so one directional in the face of overwhelming atrocities? Very simple.

Over the past 6 years, the markets, and western finance, have been tested more than in any other period in modern times. The results have been nothing less than stellar. We know, no matter how shallow the set back, central banks are here to bid. We understand that stocks might trade down for a period of time, but ultimately, the anonymous bidder comes to play.

So, as an allocator of assets, how in the world can I base present and future decisions around anything but higher stock prices?

Eventually the economy will recess and stocks might languish for a bit. Rest assured, when that time comes, the Fed will be there to ensure that stocks lift higher. This is all cotton candy, crayons in the ears, crazy talk; I realize that and know it’s all a game. But you’d be an idiot if you thought the Fed and central banks were going to lose control now, after what we saw in 2008 and 2011.

Sectors will overheat, like biotech is now. Corrections will come and go, like March of last year. All that being said, the stocked market is now mandated, by the powers vested in government, to trade higher, forever and ever and ever.

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The Biotech Bubble is Real

I don’t care how many cures for cancer there are in development. Nothing warrants this sort of run in biotech, with the sector now up 31% for the year. More than 15 biotechs are up double digits today, led by gains in JUNO, KITE and FOLD. Looking at the sector makes you want to go out and pick the next one, laggards. For example, AGIO was down for the year, until today. KITE and BLCM were lagging, not anymore.

I took this overzealousness to blow out of my NRDM position, a position that I managed to turn a 30% loss into a 20% profit through sheer hard headed averaging down. I got lucky and now I am hitting the bricks.

I will keep the other medicine man stocks in my portfolios because they are real companies, with real drugs, heading higher. SGEN, ICPT and JAZZ are my largest biotech holdings. GILD and AMGN are my largest drug holdings and quit calling them fucking biotechs. Their market caps are upwards of $100 billion. Sure, I’d love to grab one today and sell out with a 30% profit tomorrow. But The PPT Exodus hybrid chart is at the very top end of the range, a prelude of some selling to come.

One day this sector is going to blow up and kill a bunch of people. Don’t think it can’t happen to you–because it can and it will.

With some of the NRDM proceeds, I added to BABA and MUSA.

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Dabbling a Bit in the Orient

I had bought BABA much higher than present values. There isn’t much to like or “enjoy” about China. I am not particularly fond of its stupid history, government or its food. I do, however, like the company of American chinese people and favor American chinese food over the vegetable laden crap that some of you mentally ill liberals deem as “authentic chinese food” or “real.”

In other words, I do not like China. I feel it is a country wrought with systemic corruption, a cesspool of liars and thieves trying to outdo one another in order to attain absurd wealth. Nonetheless, there is one company that I feel will curry the favor of our investors over a period of time. This period of time might be 1 week or 1 year. But, eventually, Americans will buy the shit out of BABA.

Why?

Because it is the pure play on Chinese consumerism. It is the sole way to play the transformation from man in a coolie hat to man being driven about town in his brand new Buick. Yes, for some odd reason, the Chinese love a good Buick.

With immense scale, free cash flow, government clout, and a CEO with a head shaped like a football, there isn’t a way BABA doesn’t work higher, eventually.

As such, I added to my position here today, reducing my basis to $91. I will buy more on dips.

NOTE: To finance this trade, I booked profits on SKX.

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Gentlemen, A Discussion About Oil

Last night another OPEC official stated they could not and would not reduce production, in order to maintain market share. Clearly, these people, with over a trillion in cash reserves, mean business. Furthermore, he stated they’d be glad to discuss coordinated production cuts with non-OPEC members. In other words, they are going to bankrupt the Bakken Shale, no matter the cost.

This morning, T. Boone Pickens said oil would trade back to $90 within 12-18 months. Do not laugh at this man, for he’s accomplished more than most of us combined. There is something happening in the space now, something that is far and beyond what lies in your juvenile charts. Steer clear of the sector and avoid it altogether. There comes a point in a man’s life when he evolves and no longer commits mistakes of his former youth. I believe last year was a turning point in my career, one that blazoned a new path for Le Fly, one that elevated my investment acumen to levels you could only dream of attaining.

Remember, it’s important to respect your adversaries, just before killing them.

While it’s true, I am beating the S&P 500 this year like a wet dog in China, by 15%. It’s also true that I have ground to make up for last year’s chicanery. But listen to me now, ever so quietly: my methods have changed and so will my performance.

Early this morning, bloody murder is taking place in the crude pits. I like anti-crude plays and will update you on a need-to-know basis.

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THE CREAM IS RISING TO THE TOP

Now that we’ve established that the Fed is on the side of good, justice and a democratic society, it’s important that you die.

I’m not so much concerned with those of you who are short stocks. Even though, admittedly, I spend inordinate amounts of my time worrying about you–scheming ways to maim and/or permanently injure you. Mother always said “it’s not a real injury, unless you’re subjugated to a wheeled chair for life” (extra Norman Bates). Some call it paranoia. I like to think of it as planning ahead.

Back to the subject at hand.

You ham and eggers, the donut hole punchers of the world, have had it good for too long now. I’m gonna start destroying you, methodically, for all that you’ve done to society, afflicting others with your warped sense of entitlement, and above all, misguided refuse.

“The Fly” is The Cock of the North, residing in a section of the country that was built for gentlemen of the first cloth, colonials who know the difference between right or wrong, bad from the inane. It’s because of the Northeast corridor of the United States that the rest of you enjoy the freedoms that you take for granted each and every day, smoking marijuna cigarettes inside of crack-dens. Always remember, if it wasn’t for us, the hard-working masters of the North, the lot of you would be sucking the dirt off the British crown.

Like I was saying, the market is in rare bull form. Its been teeming up until now, waiting for an opportune moment to break arms to the upside. Listen to me good and clear: if you get in its way now, as it’s breaking out to new highs, your wife and kids will leave you for ruining their future. Don’t do it to yourselves. Don’t ruin your lives betting against the essence of man, which is to forge ahead and receive capital gains.

NOTE: This is day 6 following The PPT‘s OVERSOLD signal. Chalk up another W for “The Fly’s” calculator like brain.
PPT

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We Need MOAR Cowbell

Despite the indices roaring higher, many stocks sat out the rally. With breadth at 72%, it’s fair to say a great many of you didn’t make money today. Most of the gains were found in commodity related sectors, and utes. Yields crashed lower again, the dollar cratered, and gold lifted a bit too. It makes no sense for commodities, including gold, to lift with bonds–all the while the dollar gets smashed to pieces.

Bonds should be going lower, since a rate hike isn’t in the cards. Nonetheless, this is the hand we’ve been dealt.

Look, the market is barely up for the year. We need MOAR cowbell to get this fucker going again. I am talking about scorched earth tactics, unrelenting buy programs to punch off the faces of anyone fading stocks. Everyone must invest in stocks again, even my dry cleaner.

Into the close, I added to my LVLT position. I made 0.74% for the day.

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THE CITY SQUARE IS BUSTLING WITH NEWLY MINTED EUNUCHS

Ladies and gentlemen,

This isn’t supposed to make sense. The market was down 120 before the Fed meeting and stocks were sucking dick. Then, the statement came out, which removed the word patient, and for reasons unbeknownst to anyone, the market took off like a fucking raging bull out from hell.

We can hem and haw all day, thinking of reasons for this glorious occurrence. But anything that we say will get condensed to one simple, unalienable fact: there’s a conspiracy to induce malcontents of our society to sell short stocks. Once those malcontents are firmly embedded in their shorts, government goons arrest them and usher them into the city square, for immediate and irreversible penis decapitation.

The city square is bustling with dismembered lads, running about the boulevard with Rickard Santelli autographed head-shots, tucked neatly inside of today’s issue of The Zerohedge.

As fate would have it, oil and gold are leading the way higher. Resist the temptation of buying those sectors. Stick to what’s working.

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A Funny Thing Happened On the Way to the Driving Season

You must be religious in your viewership of iBankCoin, otherwise you will only receive half of the story. As you readily know, I was a big advocate of energy stocks after the New Year. I bought lots of SLCA, DVN, OXY, PACD, EMES, FMSA, CHK and ECR–just to name a few. As prices rose, I started to sell, in order to lock in profits in what I deemed to be a damaged industry. My thesis was one of dead cat bounce. I never said anything about the fundamentals. The premise was “we should see a reflex rally off the lows, especially heading into driving season.” As such, I was positioned for this run higher.

But you know what happened on the way to the driving season?

THE FUCKING PRICE WENT LOWER, so I sold out.

You little shit-fuckers get me so fucking mad, always talking shit. How about this, pal? How about you pay attention to what I say, don’t disappear for three weeks, and keep track of my trades? The alternative is one of extreme annoyance, fielding questions all day long, such as “I though you were boolish on oil into the driving season?”

Well, fucked face, I was–but then the price tanked and I changed my mind. This isn’t a fascist country, last time I checked. I am permitted to change my mind, yes?

I am going to do you another favor now: adjust your risk profile immediately. Despite the market being flat for the year, biotechs are up 27%. This is fucking lunacy. What makes it worse is 90% of these companies do zero revenues. This is all a crap-shot. On the other hand, real pharmas, like JAZZ, probably have 20-30% upside left.

The gains are outrageous. Take for example, ESPR. I sold the damn fucker at $17 a few months ago; now it’s $100. FML.

It’s okay to have exposure to nut job sectors like this; but do so in moderation. For when this sector corrects, and believe you me it will, and you are heavily long at that time, you are going to regret the decision your mother made to conceive you many moons ago.

Botton line: The anti-oil trade reigns supreme. I like TA, MUSA, AAL, GRUB, DPZ, PZZA.

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Off to See About a Few Beers

I’m not even going to say “red on a green day” or something corny like that. All that I can say is to eat hardy and sleep well tonight, for tomorrow you dine in hell, should Yellen lose her patience with you.

For the day, I lost a smidgen, 0.2%, buoyed by my two largest positions, GRUB, JNS, being up for the day.

I’m so gross, it’s almost sickening.

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