Mirror, Mirror On the Wall, Who is the Grossest of them All?

I added to my JNS position, in an effort to be ‘super-gross’ about my portfolio allocations. Aside from that, I am having a rather benign day, waiting and hoping and praying to the heavens above for olde testament judgement to be passed down from the Lord onto the heads of those betting against stocks today.

Amen.

This is the first year in many that I didn’t throw a St. Paddy’s Day party at Casa del Fly. It wasn’t in the cards this year, especially according to Mrs. Fly, who keeps herself very busy. ‘Tis is a day to drink lots of Guinness stout, setting aside that homosexual (no offense to gay guys of course) craft beer nonsense that you insist on getting fat with. And, because you’ll be so fucking wasted from the stout, the only method by which you will be able to cook is to boil some meat and potatoes. For your health, you can toss in a little cabbage with onions and carrots too.

If you’re cooking some corned beef, remember to properly dilute the brine that comes with the beef with copious amounts of water; otherwise, when you add in the starch and veggies, they’ll taste like you rubbed them about the surface of a fucking salt mine.

Futures are lower; but I don’t give a shit. I’ve been plagued by ‘night terrors’, hallunicinatory dreams of grave danger and horrors. I think someone might’ve spiked my tobacco pipe with some LSD. Nevertheless, “The Fly” remains committed towards the disembowelment of Rickard Santelli and his cabal. I don’t know why I have such pent up anger inside of me. Believe you me, it has nothing to do with some fucked up complex. I think this job makes me want to kill people. If I were to be a sanitation worker, or a goat herder, I’d probably be as happy as poor people on food stamps. Instead, I get to toil about the battlefield of capitalism, surveying the decaying corpses, dodging incoming scud missile attacks.

At any rate, on this day of drunken foolness, I’d like to offer a toast, an early one at that, to you, the bedraggled microbe reading this here blog. Without you, my life would be exponentially more interesting and enterprising. God only knows how much this site has set back my career. Oh, actually, I don’t need God to answer that for me. Let’s go ask Mrs. Fly what she thinks about all this?

One final note: I had an idea for a sitcom, one loosely based on my life. I wrote scene 1 and think it’s okay. I could probably do better; but I might share it with you soon to get some feedback.

Ciao

The number one trade in the hedge fund world now is to borrow in euros and get long US equities. This trade is working like a charm, but poses a significant future headwind–should the current trend reverse. For example: if the euro spikes higher, these riverboat gamblers are going to be forced to sell their JNJ and DIS, in order to pay back their loans. There are certain risk thresholds that will need to be adhered to.

Also, should US markets drop, precipitously, euro fuckers will find themselves in the unenviable position of being fucked.

But, for now, everything is working out, rather stupendously. After all, what could go wrong?

As it stands now, the fate of western finance, and all corridors of the civilized world, hangs in the balance. This is a balance that is very much interested in knowing if Janet Yellen is “patient” or not. If we find out this Wednesday that she is not, in fact, patient, hell will break loose and 66 seals of hell will be broken–paving way for actual centaurs to roam Wall–kicking people in the faces with their hooves.

On the other hand, if Janet is patient and says so, we’re all going to make an absurd amount of money.

To celebrate this future occurrence, I am prepared with corked bottles of champagne and jumping jacks. Upon my success in the capital markets, “The Fly” will travel down to Wall in his 1980’s style stretch limo, roll down the windows, and begin popping corks into the faces of pikers who pass by. After I am done, I will toss out a flaming cardboard box, with Blustar’s skull inside of it, wrapped in a dozen or so jumping jacks, for the kids. You know, they like to see the vibrant colors, and all.

Today was a crucifixion for bears, as they were thoroughly routed from the field of battle–forced to find refuge inside of fucked up cold caves. What makes matters exponentially worse, there is significant upside to this current run because the Fed will not remove the word “patience” from their idiotic message to the markets.

How do I know this?

Fucking time machine.

In the event that Biff grabs hold of my time machine and somehow changes the future, forcing Yellen to remove the word “patience”, you’d be wise to run for the hills–because there is ZERO rationale to hike interest rates, not now, not ever.

A new era of hedonism and cocaine highways is upon you.

I reallocated much of my cash today, reducing it to 7%– left aside for the rare occasion the market sells off post Fed. Bear in mind, the market is barely up for the year. We should all be enjoying the spoils of war by now, drinking pina coladas from the skulls of our enemies, whilst attending festivals at our harems! This back and forth nonsense is going to stop; and when it does, you’re going to regret the day you decided that stocks were “too risky” for your money.

Pussies.

Each and every year spring comes about, Mrs. Fly enters my office and demands that the landscaper “do without mulch” this year, for she doesn’t like the smell of it. My retort, as always, is “if you want to have beds you absolutely need mulch, otherwise it will be a wild, fucking, jungle out there.” This, naturally, falls upon deaf ears, especially since she has nothing to do with the landscaping and has absolutely no idea what a weed looks like. Alas, the conversation ended in another Fly victory, firmly declaring “domain over the brushes and shrubs yonder”; be gone woman and never speak of this silliness again!

In between all of that, I added to my JNS position–because I’m really Gross.

This is precisely the sort of fucked up snap back rally that literally decapitates short sellers. I prefer to be long during markets like this, overtly violent and onerous to those who bet against it. It’s like that Jack in the Box you played with as a wee lad, only this time Jack pops up and stabs you in the face.

Into courage, I exhibited a bit of wisdom and added to my SGEN, MUSA and JNS positions.

I give up: I really do. Long ago I stopped complaining and explaining. People do not deserve my complaints, nor explanations for my actions. Seeing everything as plain as day, I know exactly what the markets wants and that is not higher interest rates. Since 2008, these gold ghouls have been a plague to these markets, always disparaging the economy and our King Dollars. They’ve been proven to be exactly wrong and now they’ve returned to jockey for higher interest rates.

Delusional and without a moral compass, these blue-beards are drunk off the moonshine, televising their opinions in front of a national audience, embarrassing themselves and their families. It’s almost as if the facts on the ground mean nothing. The CRB index is at 1998 lows. All commodities are down deep double digits over the past 3 years. Rates are negative in 12 European countries and the dollar is hitting new highs.

For the love of God, please, shut the fuck up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsLA9Q3JNmc

Who would’ve guessed that King Dollars would rise 30% vs the euro in just one year? Who would’ve guessed that oil would keep going lower, after a 60% decline? Gentlemen, we are in a different market now, one that is adjusting to a new paradigm of cheap oil and strong King Dollars.

On the surface, this spells doom for oil and gas companies, as well as all of those bozo companies who prided themselves on international growth. To be domestic, depending on fuel to run your business, is now a net positive.

Fuck The Habit; but this is very boolish for any restaurant play, or companies who deliver things. FDX, UPS, DPZ, PZZA and GRUB come to mind. Small companies, like air freight plays, rails who do not deliver crude, airlines who aren’t hedged, automobile companies with favorable forex dynamics (FCAU!) and rubber for the win too.

Nevertheless, a fresh move lower in crude, coupled with a continued move higher in the dollar, will eventually jar markets and result in lower prices. At 15% cash, long quality free cash flow generating machines, I am in a good spot to defend my 13% year to date returns. If you aren’t cash heavy, still long oil and other high beta names, I strongly advise you to play a little defense until the oil barrels and king dollars stabilize.

This could’ve been a great movie, had it not been for the studio taking over and chopping it up to pieces. After Citizen Kane, Orson was in hot water, due to the lack of commercial success of the film, considering its sky-hot budget, and also for going after William Randolph Hearst, whom the movie was based on. When given the green light to do The Magnificent Amberson’s, a movie Orson did not star in other than some eloquent narration, he was also commissioned to do some bullshit movie down in the jungles of Brazil, called It’s All True.

The Magnificent Amberson’s is a movie about change, a change that happened at the end of the Victorian era. It’s about a family who had it all and then lost it. They were unable to change with the times.That sense of entitlement, infamous traits of fuckheads who come into large inheritances, was their ultimate downfall.

It’s a movie about comeuppance.

Truth is, Orson got distracted, left before final edit was done, and the studio fucked him by nearly ruining the film–removing 45 minutes from the film because ‘it was too downbeat.’ Nevertheless, it has a lot of the magic that made Kane such a good movie and is worth a view.

Here’s a little background on the movie, from the man himself

I am boolish on financials here, long LAZ, SBNY, BX and BCS. I added a little something to that cocktail, getting long JNS. In this environment of bond market fuckery, I cannot think of a better play than JNS, with William H. “SHUT THE FUCK UP WHEN YOU’RE IN MY BOARDROOM” Gross at the helm. If you were a helpless institution and needed bond management, who would you trust, some punk left over at Pimco or Bill?

Exactly.

For the day, I sold 75% of my HABT position, because insiders are fucking greedy bastard motherfuckers. I have no patience for this sort of trickery. I also sold WYN. With some of the proceeds, I bought JNS and GRUB (twice). Yesterday I added LVLT and SKX to the mix. I intend on adding to both stocks next week.

I had a nice winner in TA today, who crushed numbers by 88 cents thanks to higher gross margins for their gasoline sales. I love that stock, and MUSA, into weaker gasoline. Bear in mind, gas is only up due to exogenous factors in the northeast, due to snow. Crack spreads blew out to new highs in recent weeks; but that is dissipating now that the snow is melting.

Hands down, my favorite stock here is GRUB, the perfect play off cheaper gasoline/restaurants seeking ways to increase sales.

All in all, it was a good week; but the past few days were fucked up thanks to HABT. But that is almost behind me now and I am super-focused on maintaining a winning strategy, which entails cutting out losers quick before they metastasize into something deadly.

My cash position is 15%.

NOTE: Be sure to visit tomorrow, as I am on my Orsen Welles kick.