You must be religious in your viewership of iBankCoin, otherwise you will only receive half of the story. As you readily know, I was a big advocate of energy stocks after the New Year. I bought lots of SLCA, DVN, OXY, PACD, EMES, FMSA, CHK and ECR–just to name a few. As prices rose, I started to sell, in order to lock in profits in what I deemed to be a damaged industry. My thesis was one of dead cat bounce. I never said anything about the fundamentals. The premise was “we should see a reflex rally off the lows, especially heading into driving season.” As such, I was positioned for this run higher.
But you know what happened on the way to the driving season?
THE FUCKING PRICE WENT LOWER, so I sold out.
You little shit-fuckers get me so fucking mad, always talking shit. How about this, pal? How about you pay attention to what I say, don’t disappear for three weeks, and keep track of my trades? The alternative is one of extreme annoyance, fielding questions all day long, such as “I though you were boolish on oil into the driving season?”
Well, fucked face, I was–but then the price tanked and I changed my mind. This isn’t a fascist country, last time I checked. I am permitted to change my mind, yes?
I am going to do you another favor now: adjust your risk profile immediately. Despite the market being flat for the year, biotechs are up 27%. This is fucking lunacy. What makes it worse is 90% of these companies do zero revenues. This is all a crap-shot. On the other hand, real pharmas, like JAZZ, probably have 20-30% upside left.
The gains are outrageous. Take for example, ESPR. I sold the damn fucker at $17 a few months ago; now it’s $100. FML.
It’s okay to have exposure to nut job sectors like this; but do so in moderation. For when this sector corrects, and believe you me it will, and you are heavily long at that time, you are going to regret the decision your mother made to conceive you many moons ago.
Botton line: The anti-oil trade reigns supreme. I like TA, MUSA, AAL, GRUB, DPZ, PZZA.
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Thanks for the AAL pick Senor Fly. i cashed it out w/ a 13.25% gain yesterday to have some cash on hand in case today is horrible. You sir, are doing God’s work.
I AM THE COCK OF THE NORTH!!!
Cock of the North! That was my nickname on the rowing team at Oxford
Just finished ‘Hedge Fund Market Wizards’. Can’t remember who, but one of the first interviews the manager went to a conference and said every prediction and target he made speaking there was wrong – yet he still made money over the course of the time it played out because of changing his thesis, and then stopped giving these kinds of predictions.
Great read btw.
Syber Security: PANW, FEYE, BLOX, FTNT, CUDA
Discount Retailer: BURL, TJX, COST, ROST
M is the best discount retailer, hands down.
I don’t get BURL.
What about Janet? Beware of chickenhawks, old cock.
What don’t you like? Too rich valuation? All time highs, but the trend is strong and company is executing. They beat on top and bottom line. Upgraded yesterday. I think will continue to capitalize on low gas environment. Thoughts?
The stores are complete shit. Have you ever been to one?
I’m not a china fan but check out YY. Low risk trade with price resting on support.
Yy is cheap, if the numbers are real.
Baba is the only China stock worth owning
I agree with you on BABA. It’s like FB at 20 now.
Only thing that matters is buyers and sellers. Looks like large scale selling is done. I like it’s relative strength over the last two days.
WNR is ready to deploy
I’m just over here with AMBA, cresting +40% YTD…
In it but wish I had those type of gains.
I sold yesterday because something feels fishy about the Fed this time. Feels like they might be wanting a little correction. Maybe we will finally get a real correction, driving out the bulls before blow off top into Sept?
Then again the options market is suggestion this is all a bottom, so we’ll find out shortly!
Guess the options markets were correct. Never doubt them?
http://imgur.com/N65hI0q
Dr. Fly, he of the mental flexibility, pray tell… My goal is to sell $GILD for a large profit 15-20 years from now. Would you suggest buying in increments opportunistically starting now, or setting the money aside and waiting for the eventual (potential?) biotech bubble burst to try and catch the proverbial baby on the way out with the bath water?
Wonder if sweat’s beading on Old Yellen’s brow worrying if she’ll be blamed for a real selloff for removing “patience”.Wealth effect is obviously the only criteria and she has been blessed with oil prices,lucky girl.
fresh powder on the glass table. break out your hundy’s and razor blades gents.