ALERT: DEFCON 10 MODE INITIATED

Admittedly, I am losing my mind today, as symbolized by the nonsensical title of this post. I am losing about $100,000 every 10 minutes. Whenever I refresh the screen, I get see my stocks knifing lower, as if rapists were chasing after them (how fortunate for me). So I deiced to INITIATE DEFCON 10 MODE, which is reserved–EXCLUSIVELY (ooh,fancy)–for shovel to the grave markets.

Protect the extremities (penis, heart, brain–in that order)

Assume the worst.

Whatever can go wrong, will.

Stop believing in fairy tales. In the real world, every one dies.

LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY.

My first act was to sell, mind you, that fucking bastard SALE and her ugly cousin EZPW. I am through with them. May they go higher for the next 10,000 years without me. With these sales, I am removed from margin and have buying power that can help me defend the stocks I own on the run from rapists.

I might sell more. Or, I might not. Ideally, I’d like to hold onto the crap that is tanking hardest, with a chance to “average in” like a lunatic. Remember, I just did that with FEYE the other day.

The other side of the mountain is always hard, especially when you are skidding down it without pants.

The ping action in the momo names is exactly how I remembered it in 2000. Before I knew it, those bastard devil of stocks were down 50% and I was urinating in my pants, the walls, everywhere. I am tempted to just call it a day, sell everything and really head off to an island where no one could ever reach me. I’d become a sugar cane farmer and no one will ever have known that I was, at one point, Le Fly, blogger extraordinaire, leader of the inter- webs.

There is nothing but terrible in front of me and I wish I could assuage you with calm tales of wisdom. I offer you nothing but frantic lessons in violence today, stark memories of black clouds and fire pits from hell. If you’re looking for something positive, you’ve come to the wrong blogging factory. I have three stocks that represent all that is wrong with the market, with a 4th to match as a bonus: FEYE, SPLK, WDAY and SALE.

Congratulations Le Fly, you’ve managed to position yourself at the very centre of the catastrophe, betting with historical trends and the like, momentum names into a Ben-less market.

God speed. No one shall be spared.

The Home Shopping Network is a disgusting organization. Earlier this morning, I accidentally turned to that channel and I literally couldn’t get off from it. I then pressed “ok” and it asked if I wanted to buy one of their stupid products, which would be added to my cable bill. Seriously? One click shopping via the television? How long has this been happening? I had to turn off the whole cable box, in order to turn on CNBC.

NUS got fined $524k by China for whatever. It’s important for you to understand that the only reason why NUS fell from $150 to $70 was because of fears they’d be banned from China, which comprises more than 30% of sales. Sadly, I sold NUS a short while ago (the story of my life). Nevertheless, the riskiest part of the trade is now over. If this pulls back for reasons beyond my comprehension, I will be a buyer, as I feel the stock heads back to $150 within 6 months or less.

Futures are higher this morning and we’re overdue for a serious minded bounce. Carl Icahn just snatched 3 seats on the HLF board and the bulls are feeling a little energetic this morning.

I was scarred back in 2000, during the dot bomb bubble. So almost every market pullback brings back those memories of being rutted out of the market, unceremoniously, by the forces of liquidity. As a side note to that era, just before the crash, my partner and I were re-negotiating our contracts, which included accelerated payouts and six figure retention bonuses. In other words, they were gonna pay us to keep our jobs, one of the many great things about being a producer on Wall St. However, due to the language of the contract, we stalled and took our time with it. We never did sign that contract, or received the “pay me or I leave money.” I ended up leaving in 2005 for good.

Back to the subject at hand. All of the high fliers are correcting, which is a common characteristic of any market top.

Have a look at some high growth losers, over the past week.

CSLT -26% (IPO)

CMGE -23%

BOFI -18%

YGE -16%

MUX -16%

CRTO -15%

MDXG -15%

HLF -15%

XLRN -14%

NMBL -12%

SCTY -12%

GEOS -11%

WUBA -11%

GWPH -10.5%

SFUN -10%

FEYE -8.5%

This Russian business is nonsense and will pass in time. Any sell off due to The Ukraine should be bought. However, I must admit there is a feeling of distinct vulnerability, now that Benjamin “blunt smoking” Bernanke isn’t at the helm. I wonder what he’s up to these days? Without the Fed, all we have are numbers and Obama, not exactly something to get excited about.

Nonetheless, markets don’t correct during March and April, so you might as well prepare for a quick reversal to the upside–now that the tone is decidedly negative.

Biotech stocks, as an index, were down more than 4% today. The market was up 125 this morning, reversed, and closed at the lows of the session.

This is hell, young prince. Prepare to lose all of you money, AND MORE.

I am staying the course, leveraged into what seems to be an apocalypse.  There are devils all around me, whispering in my ear, trying to get me to lose money. Having EZPW as my largest position has its advantages, in that it’s as boring as a bag of nails.

My other positions are all under 10% in size, a stark contrast to Le Fly of old. Just to paint a vivid picture, in the past, my top holding has equaled more than 20, sometimes 30% of my holdings. In the case of YELP and WNR, it went as high as 40%. I am playing a subtle game, bleeding out slower than usual, still in the game, readying to play my position with precision.

For the day, I was almost exactly flat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3uTLHEGm-M

Splunk you!

I love when markets hit new highs and everyone I know is losing money. We all got caught in the cool kid stocks, when in fact: IT’S NERD TIME.

Today’s action is abysmal, thanks in large part of Fed Fischer and his god damned big mouth. But the wheels were turning this way for a while now. We might as well get this over with.

I ran a screen of stocks up more than 10% over the past 6 months, but down 10% over the past two weeks, sporting 20%+ growth rates. Here you will find the heart of the rotation. Have a look.

Aside from this list, we have some new losers today–hot stocks under the knife of Mr. Rotation.

DDD, SCTY, GILD, ICPT, VEEV, BIIB, LL, GWPH, ACAD, QUNR, PWRD, WUBA. I can go on for days.

The fun is over, until it starts again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=9d3qFZdGnwo#t=178

When you were a baby and said your first words, you were a stupid idiot, unable to understand what you had just said. Ah, but when you first logged onto Twitter and typed your first tweet, you were fully aware of your words, broadcasting out the inner voice of your souls.

BEHOLD: To commemorate Twitter’s 8th anniversary, here are your favorite financial bloggers’ (old and new) first words.

The Fly

ChessnWine

RaginCajun

The Option Addict

Cain Thaler

Raul

Woodshedder

Scott Bleier

Jakegint

Dubz

Cronkite

Our corporate accounts

iBankCoin

iBC News

Feel free to lookup your first tweet and share it in the comments section.

I thought SALE was the worst company in the world, until FEYE came along. Apparently, they give cancer to people and then treat them with radiation that kills them almost instantly. They charge gigantic sums of money for this luxury and even have a funeral home business that encases your dead corpse, for a small fee.

At the FireEye funeral parlour, they secretly put cancer in the light bulbs, water and furniture, so that grieving visitors become clients. Once ill, you go to the FEYE HQ and they treat you with “life saving radiation therapy” for $10,000 per treatment. The only side effect is death.

Business is booming. However, people are wising up to their derelict ways and have begun to sell them short. Also, the lock-up period has expired, which is good news for all of the felons who own the stock. I am sure they will sell every single share over the next few weeks. Nothing will stop these savages from taking the money and running. Their cost basis is in the pennies and they couldn’t care less if their selling drove the shares back down to single digits.

After all, the company is a merchant in death. What did you expect?

I am playing probabilities. It’s the single best way to predict the market’s direction. If you can get the macro right, the micro is profoundly easier. I don’t know if WDAY, SPLK and FEYE have bottomed and will make me money over the next month or so. However, I do know my history. For example, I know the market hasn’t gone down more than 2% in March since 2001. In the month of April, the market hasn’t gone down more than 2% since 2002.

We’ve only had one down year for March since 2005 and I like my chances long here. Plain and simple, if I turn out to be wrong, I’d rather be wrong through an outlier event. The odds are forever in my favour. All I have to do is diversify my positions and make human sacrifices to the stock Gods, with the hopes that they grant me a few wins.

I am nothing but a humble servant of coin.

Now if we’re talking about fear, I am scared to death to be long May-June, which have been dreadful months for stocks in recent years.

Know your history, boy, and play your position wisely. With a little luck and a whole lot of money, we might end up making some coin from here until the end of April.

Then we can position defensively.

I increased my position by 40% on this morning’s dip in FEYE. It’s now my second largest position, with an average cost of $75.4