I can’t seem to shake the feeling of impending doom. Twice this week I’ve dreamt about walking around in the snow, only to be surprised attacked by a polar bear. I mean, a polar bear? Really? My dreams must be relaying some sort of deep message to me, from the future, which is an undeniable truth: I am a psychopath.
Who cares anyway? We’re all pissing in the wind, hoping that it doesn’t turn back on us.
Futures are up around 6 S&P “handles” right now, as the prescient men in the futures pits declare “the bull market is back.” As long as Russia keeps their stupid tanks out of the Ukraine, we should rock back to new highs. The level of carnage imposed onto the shareholders of growth stocks will take some time to unwind. I expect people will keep selling into rallies, until we get a fresh class of investors into these names. My best guess: you’re gonna have to hold these names into earnings and hope for the best.
If FEYE smashes earnings, you will get a 15 point gap up.
For now, that’s all I have for you: a familiar feeling of doom coupled with the sort of carelessness that just might allow me to escape the latest drawdown unscathed.
You will be surprised by what I have to say. After watching my good fortune laid to waste by bastards, I’ve come to the conclusion that this can only be purposeful. It’s important to remember the bigger picture here: The Fed is your friend. They aren’t interested in deflation because the stock market is the only thing worth saving in America, that and iBankCoin. Rates cannot go higher and shall not be permitted to go higher, as long as the government wants to service their $20 trillion debt load.
What lies in front of us is nothing more than a giant snare, a trap set by diabolical people, greedily positioning to buy your liquidation. Hell, by the way SPLK, FEYE, WDAY and YELP are trading, they want my liquidation too.
All of a sudden, a great many global hawks are telecasting their dire predictions for the market, reactionary folks who move with the wind. You will become scared and might sell because the pain is too severe. It’s not rational to accept pain and to know there is more on the way and still, willingly, sit there and accept it. That is what I’ve been doing, violating all of the basic principles of money management because I’ve been conditioned (pavlov) to not capitulate.
Maybe I’m wrong. Perhaps the government is filled with a bunch of bumblers who have zero control of this $17 trillion economy. But after the near collapse of 2008 and scare of 2011, it is my opinion, as well as the opinion of many others, that it is in the best interest for us to keep the status quo going. While the patient might have cancer and will eventually die, there’s no upside to killing it now, unless you had something to inherit.
It’s funny how I go through radical, irrational, mood swings, regarding the status of my job. Most people that I know would literally saw off one of their arms to make the type of money that I do in a given year, yet I feel as if it’s the stupidest job on the face of the planet, monotonous rabble in a world up to its ears in feces. I get to listen to all sorts of sub-humans discuss their brilliant ideas, day in and day out, ad nauseam, until I almost start believing in them. I’m getting stockholm syndrome sitting at this desk all these years and I’m not better for it.
Let us gawk at the market, every second of it of every day, with hopes of picking the right set of stocks at the right time, before all hell breaks loose, so that we might finance ourselves with the aims of self-aggrandizement.
When the trend breaks down, instead of being constructive about the price action, let us surrender to base human instinct and run for cover, letting fear dominate our emotions–leading to catastrophic losses. When prices rip higher, let us allow greed, envy, and gluttony replace reason, taking outsized risks, not because we need to, but because we want to.
While you’re doing all of that, take a selfie and post it on Facebook so that all of your non-friend friends can like it and tell you how awesome you look.
You are looking at the charts all wrong–because you don’t know what you’re doing. Neither do I. Actually, do any of us really know anything at all? I’m a better dart thrower than most, plain and simple. But at the end of the day, I will get my comeuppance. We all do. Maybe it’s beginning now, or next year, or in ten years. Rest assured, it will happen, as long as I am invested the way I am in stocks.
If I dialed it down and put myself out to pasture in old man stocks, I’d be fine. I’d retain the wealth I’ve accumulated and be able to sustain my way of life. That’s the word I don’t like: sustain. I don’t want to sustain anything. If I am not moving up, I’d rather not be moving at all–a dreadful fatalistic way of thinking, especially for a family man. We can’t change who we are. We can only pretend until the truth is revealed, one way or another.
Today’s action was constructive, but not exactly what I had in mind. The charts look bad, even horrid, because stocks are going straight down the toilet. They will look better once we bounce and base out. Then you’ll say “here is the support line, where bounced on March 28th of 2014.”
Fair enough. The rally that should have been didn’t happen. It was a classic doomsday opening, followed by a miraculous comeback. Now we’re just milquetoasting it into the close.
There isn’t any firing power in the bulls’ arsenal, not due to an active IPO market (that’s just silly); but because they let devils infect their minds with lies. What are we scared of? Is there a credit bubble, dramatic slowdown in the economy or the specter of war?
Ah, you believe war is on the horizon. Why, because of The Ukraine? Do you really think we are going to go to war with Russia? You have to be kidding me.
Like all of the other corrections of the past, this too shall pass. The only distinct difference between this correction, and all the others, is that this one is based upon absolutely nothing. Therefore, being the reasonable person that I am, I can only conclude we will recover and reach new highs.
Whether I like it or not, stocks are dying again. The rout in high multiple stocks continues and the margin clerks are lighting their cigars, readying for a fun filled day of liquidation. The futures guys were showing gains for the NASDAQ since yesterday’s close, yet here were are and it is down 30. Who would’ve thought those alcoholics would be wrong, again?
YELP was upgraded to a price target of $105; therefore the stock is sharply lower.
SPLK, WDAY and FEYE are setting up for another 4-6 to the downside and everything else is positioned as it should be, in a Ben-less market. Speaking of which, I am sure Grandma Yellen is up and about this morning, heading off to a knitting class or something awesome like that.
Also, with the market sucking like this, WHY AREN’T THESE BASTARD IPOs withdrawing? Am I in the twilight zone or what? Withdraw your offering you idiot! Can’t you see no one is interested in more supply now?
This is the problem with VCs. They are the greediest people on the face of the planet, always looking to “cash in” and get liquid on people. At the moment, I wish them nothing but hardship and rough sledding.
So I’ve been spending the last few hours trying to find a stock that embodied this sell off. It had to have a track record of at least 5 years, relatively large capped, high growth, cloud based business model, and generally a great company. We look at FEYE and SPLK and get confused because there isn’t a reference point. They’re too new.
BEHOLD: I’ve found the holy grail, the one stock that is the skeleton key to this market, one singular ticker symbol that for reasons unbeknownst to me refuses to be analyzed by The PPT engines (it is the only stock out of 5,000 stocks that refuses to be analyzed). It has been a terrific outperformer and now resides in the woodshed, with the rats and the cheese.
Here it is:
I am going out on a limb here and suggesting this is NOT 2008. There isn’t a dire financial bubble about to burst and if there is one, paint me green. I’ve analyzed all instances of monthly underperformance from the letter N, since 2009, and this is what I found.
Jan 2009: -17%
Feb 2009: +31.4%
Feb 2010: -21.7%
March 2010: +17.6%
March 2014: -20.4%
April 2014: ?
April 2012: -11.75%
May 2012: +5.75%
May 2009: -17.3%
June 2009: +2.1%
June 2010: -10.2%
July 2010: +17.4%
August 2011: -18%
Sept 2011: -16%
Oct 2011: +40.1%
Oct 2010: -13.11%
Sept 2010: +21.1%
Nov 2012: -6.1%
Dec 2012: +12.8%
Do you notice a fucking trend? There was only 1 time when N went down for the month and stood down the next month and that was during the Euro crisis of 2011, which ended up in a gargantuan +40% return the very next month. History may not repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme. I use precedent and price patterns all the time in my investment decisions. Right now it looks scary, especially since the overall market has held up fairly well. Plus, we haven’t even gone through earnings yet.
I am willing to bet we are at the bottom, or at least very close to it with exceptional confidence behind this call. I realize I’ve been caught holding the bag in a number of names; but that was a different market and I was sucker punched at a time when market’s aren’t even supposed to be throwing punches (March).
I like to analyze price action like a rubber band. That’s how I designed the algorithms of The PPT. When price action gets overheated, prices always correct or at least consolidate. During ordinary market’s, one’s without a fundamental crisis, extraordinary market declines in the heart of the market, which is always growth, will be met with recovery, 9 out of 10 times.
You can short here, or go to cash. The first mistake was buying too high. The worst mistake will be locking in losses and not catching the snap-back rally by selling too low.
Now that we’ve established the margin clerks are in charge, people are confused. I see the talking heads on my television recalling 2011, 2008 and even 2000. They cite PE similarities between now, and of course 1929. All of this theatre, this song and pony show, is a prerequisite to find a market bottom.
The next phase of this market will be to establish, as fact, that we cannot go higher, as it is physically impossible, before getting a “final flush.” Cramer is sure to come on the television and request one for his buddies who are short WDAY.
“We need a final flush. We need a final flush. We need a final flush.”
We need it, so that we can buy cheaper stocks, only to run them back up to all-time highs again. In a sane world, people would dismiss such frantic cat calls as “foolish” or even “manipulative.” I won’t drive this point into the ground anymore, as the market has always been this way and will continue to be this way for as long as it trades.
Just make sure you have enough staying power, which means NO MARGIN and a lot of patience, in order to wade through the mud.
