I am playing probabilities. It’s the single best way to predict the market’s direction. If you can get the macro right, the micro is profoundly easier. I don’t know if WDAY, SPLK and FEYE have bottomed and will make me money over the next month or so. However, I do know my history. For example, I know the market hasn’t gone down more than 2% in March since 2001. In the month of April, the market hasn’t gone down more than 2% since 2002.
We’ve only had one down year for March since 2005 and I like my chances long here. Plain and simple, if I turn out to be wrong, I’d rather be wrong through an outlier event. The odds are forever in my favour. All I have to do is diversify my positions and make human sacrifices to the stock Gods, with the hopes that they grant me a few wins.
I am nothing but a humble servant of coin.
Now if we’re talking about fear, I am scared to death to be long May-June, which have been dreadful months for stocks in recent years.
Know your history, boy, and play your position wisely. With a little luck and a whole lot of money, we might end up making some coin from here until the end of April.
Then we can position defensively.
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Remember when your client made you sell your gun stock a whiles back, did you shoot that client or just charge him/her double in fees the next year?
I actually let him go recently. Funny you should ask.
That was probably the easiest buy call of 2013. Better off without that kind of baggage.
yes it was
It wasn’t easy because of the emotion that accompanied the decision to trade gun stocks after New Town. Very few people can operate apart from emotion.
I’m having a look at PCTY, when will the options start trading I wonder…
In both support of, and dissent from, Fly’s opinions, I sold a big batch of the FEYE June 65 puts for $7.60.
Worst case I have to take the stock at net 67.40.
We are a couple of days into the ending of the FEYE “lockup” period, so many sellers have sold (which has driven the price down). FEYE is due for a breather.
Net 57.40
Last year when you bought FSLR in the 40s you said it would be an $80 stock. I bought in the 50s months after you sold it. Once again, a hat tip to Senor Fly for all you do for pikers like me.
BTW, SPCB is gaining steam. that was my pick a while back when everyone was dumping it in December. You sold way too fast!
I still like SOL here too and how about that Chinese burrito SVA today? I know you sold RPTP but it looks very tempting here, what do you think Fly?
I. Love. This.
so has FEYE bottomed yet? Im waiting for you to give up and take the L before I want to buy
So the day after Mr Toad crashes, the real sanctions come for Mother Russia, right on cue. Is there a trade here? Or at least one setting up?