THE EBOLA RALLY IS COMING

Has there ever been a wall of worry this high, morbidly built upon the skulls of the ebola-stricken deceased? It has washed onto our shores, courtesy of some do-gooder who was likely trying to feed rice to small children in Liberia. The end result was he caught a deadly virus, and potentially killed numerous americans on the airplane he was traveling on– and in his small, stupid, town of Dallas.

Why isn’t there a fucking travel ban to west africa?

Now we have a reason to panic. We’ve all seen the zombie movies, apocalyptic endings that could only mean the complete destruction of the stock market. Aside from all of that, the dollar is strong, sending wheat and oil lower. Oh, how I pine for $4.50 gasoline and out of control corn prices.

This market will be served by obsequious traders, men prepared to buy dips and climb that skeleton’d wall of worry.

When was the last time buying oil above $100 worked? People always get the trade wrong, avoiding it at the lows and buying the highs.

These are the times of your lives, people. Embrace the never-ending story of extreme gluttony and unchecked hedonism. The occasional magnum of champagne and endless sea of shrimp cocktails will be funded by this market.

Be predatory and embrace the fear as cause to kill thy neighbors, weaponize your portfolios into blood seeking hounds, clamoring for bargains, opportunistic to the point of savagery.

My top picks are my top holdings. I reiterate EMES, BITA and PANW, with CLR a close fourth.

I don’t know what some of you are smoking because today sucked. 75% of stocks were lower, most aggressively. We just capped off the worst quarter for crude since 2012 and most of my stocks nailed me to a cross, with exception to my purchase of CYBR today. Boy is that stock nuts.

I had giant gains in EMES and BITA turn into mush, as momentum oriented stocks reversed and punished the faithful.

I do not walk away from this trading session, off by 1.1%, feeling good about myself. I walk away and spit at the ground behind me, wanting to forget it ever happened.

LOL @ the indices. Most stocks on my screen are down 3-5%, yet the Dow is barely changed. Despite the emotionally charged title of this post, I am trying to look at this decline in oil as something that will pass. Clearly, there has been some extensive damage in the commodity space, due to the strong dollar and good weather. Up until recently, this carnage escaped oil, thanks to the friendly cartel folks in the middle east. But now it’s all coming to a head and oil stocks are getting the business.

My raw commodity index is getting smashed to pieces. Very simply, you cannot be overweight any of these names. You can add them as part of an allocations–but that’s about it.

Some people say this is a good thing, as prices for commodities fall so do input costs. While this might’ve been true 20 years ago, this global economy is fueled on oil money. I’m afraid if that money dries up, so would liquidity.

Today is a very somber day, a day of extreme reversal. There were plenty of gains this morning and now it’s all turned to rust.

I wish I still owned my utilities.

I am very sorry to inform you of this, but my top 3 positions are higher this morning (EMES, PANW, BITA) and you wallow about the dirty rugs festooned with devil dog wrappers and stale cheesed doodles. Looking at the tape objectively, plainly, it sucks. Small caps are weak. Bonds are strong and there seems to be an overall sense of pessimism in the market.

Howsoever, we’re still in september and there is a large wall of worry to climb. I expect the rally to ensue, full fledged, within 7 business days from now.

It appears I’ve jinxed myself, even before publishing this, as PANW is now lower for the day.

Lots of red ink out there. Let’s hope for a firming of the tape.

UPDATE: I started a small position in CYBR

I do a lot of business with Paypal, through iBankCoin premium services. As many of you know, they completely suck and I wish them a poor ending to their story. I am glad that Ebay is spinning them off, as I am long Ebay. Without Ebay, paypal will suffer, for they suck and smarter innovators, like Stripe, are going to eat their lunch. Here at iBankCoin, we always marvel at the absurd incompetence of Paypal, with their low end tech support and ridiculously dated interface. It’s as if they didn’t give a fuck.

Futures are higher this morning and Europe is up.

Prepare to make some money.

When I was a boy, there was a mentally ill man who used to torment all of the kids as they made their way to school. He’d drop gallons of milk from the 7th floor of the stairwell I used (I was on the 2nd fl). He made a whistling sound to accompany the ‘milk bomb’, as he unleashed a milky hell onto us unsuspecting kids. After he was finished drenching us with milk, he’d scream out at the top of his lungs “MAYONNAISE”, then he proceeded to the roof where he’d balance himself on the ledge, whilst throwing whole watermelons onto the pavement below. I swear to you everything that I just said is a true story.

Well today the bears were those innocent school children, trying to be punctual and shit–making their way down the stairwell– until gallons of lemonade came screaming down onto their heads.

It’s all over people. Don’t even try to short this market, for it wants higher.

Top three positions: EMES, PANW, BITA

I added to ARWR

You’re a jackass for selling the market short, aren’t you? I want you to admit it. Leave a comment under this blog and embrace the stupidity that runs throughout your veins. If it means anything at all, find solace in the fact that you’re a genetically inferior specimen. You travel this world in a foreboding manner because you already know the result: loss ship. You’ve experienced this your whole life, always on the receiving end of knuckled sandwich.

Now an enterprising man, one of means, would know his limitations and simply outsource or delegate the task of proper money management to qualified professionals. See, you don’t have to be a market guru to bank coin. All you have to do is be honest with yourself and set limits. The problem with most people is that they are liars, mountebanks pretending to be professionals–when they are simply amateurs.

If you seek to uplift yourselves from the squalor of housing tenements and live a parvenu lifestyle, come to grips with your limitations and quit pissing me off.

Protests in Hong Kong are causing a disruption in the matrix. Agents are being dispatched to deal with these freedom fighters. The world has had enough cries for freedom. Next thing you know, someone is getting their head sawed off.

Futures are sharply lower; but there are plenty of deals to speak of.

The biggest one is ATHL being acquired by ECA. This is significant for all permian basin players. Expect to see some of these names bucking the trend today.

AMBI was acquired for a huge premium. DWA is said to be in talks with Softbank. TIBX was acquired by private equity. And AMAG did a deal, sending their shares soaring.

These are examples of why it’s hard to bet against this market. Sure, there are pockets of weakness and we may correct for a bit. But there is a bid to behold thanks to all of that corporate cash on the sidelines, burning a hole in executives pockets.

TLT is up this morning, as yields sink lower. The dollar is stronger, especially versus the NZ dollar and european markets are soft. I didn’t expect to see the market opening down 100 this morning. But there is nothing I can do about it now. I’ve made my bed, one built from dreams of fantastic stock market runs, and now I will lay in it.

What next?

What’s next is this: giant fucking melt up in October, mother llamas.

Let me explain.

I was nervous about a large drop in september–but it didn’t happen. Technically, it could still happen, but not very likely. Let me walk you though some history, son, grab your pencils.

Since 1999, the NASDAQ has been down in september on 6 previous occasions, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2011. Being that 9/11 occurred in 2001, it’s safe to say that was an outlier event. 2008 was also an outlier event, as the world was crumbling to pieces.

Here are the returns in september and october for the years mentioned above.

2000: -12.7%, -7.9% (dot come debacle)

2001: -21%, +17%

2002: -11.8%, +18.45%

2003: -2.9%, +8.5%

2008: -15.5%, -15.5%

2011: -4.5%, +10.4%

Which year is this market most like, if you were forced to choose, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008 or 2011? I know the circumstances were different and there is no perfect match, but entertain me.

I already know the answer: 2003

The returns were greater back then–because we were climbing out from the abyss. But the patterns, month by month, match.

My best guess: we run higher by 5% in October.