After I penned my first blog of the day, I said to myself “Fly, why don’t you partake in a game of opposites?” I then answered myself, saying “asshole, what the fuck are you talking about? How does one partake in opposites?” I then retorted “whatever you think you’re going to do with all that money, just lying there, do the opposite. In this case, specifically, you would permit me to buy something instead of you.”
“Oh, so you want to wear the pants, tough guy? I’ll tell you what: I’ll give you 50% of the money to invest. After you make a complete jackass out of yourself, I get to kick you down a flight of stairs, laced with jumping jacks and mustard. Do we have a deal?”
“Done.”
With 50% of my cash, I bulked up on my utilities, buying size in both ETR and EXC.
The market looks very good this morning, doesn’t it? Apparently, all of you are ignoring the ominous HINDENBURG OMEN and have taken to the market like drone on ISIS. This is the part of the story when the hero takes a bold stand, only to be ambushed and held captive in a Siberian work camp for the next 6 months, before escaping and then finally defeating his enemies.
I am very pleased to see my stocks trade higher. I was going to buy some SLCA this morning, following Cramer’s inane comments, but opted to wait it out. I think the NASDAQ can run a quick 20 points from here and all will appear to be good again–until tomorrow when death itself calls upon you.
Be patient and remember the good days and the bad, when forming opinions on where to place your hard earned dollars. The last part of that sentence is important for you to acknowledge. These aren’t digits and numbers we’re playing with, but a lifetime’s worth of labor.
At any rate, my cash position is so high I might be forced to put a little money to work here.
Like a bat roaming through the wintry night, Le Fly is out for blood. He seeks the total and complete destruction of the retail investor, for selfish reasons of course. As luck has it, you happen to know this website address and might’ve found it through nefarious methods. Nonetheless, you are here now and get to glean information, knowledge and wisdom, from the very best in the business.
I will now present to you, the internet troll, deformed men too grotesque to be seen in public so they seek refuge and comforts from a computer screen, my watch list–sorted by sector.
Basic Materials: SLCA
Consumer Goods: POST
Financial: BCS
Healthcare: ARWR, GILD
Industrials: n/a
Services: BID
Tech: YY, YELP
Bear in mind, this list will evolve, as the selling deepens. The further the canaille falls into disrepair, the more emboldened Count Fly will become.
I sold out of GAS to raise more cash. I am going to keep an open mind here and not allow my bias to get in the way of buying a hardy dip.
Rich men are born in the pits of hell, not the clouds of elysiam. What’s important to know is that I lost less than the average folk today. I have a war chest of cash and many holdings in treasuries and utility shares. I have a heart to buy this decline, but my brain is telling me to slow my roll.
Tonight, over a few cups of black coffee and roasted beef sandwiches, I will build my ‘buy the dip list’ and share it with those of you who aren’t lunatics.
^^^that was me back in April, so yeah I called it.
So what I was right? Did you listen to my warnings, or venture off to be a cross-eyed gambler? Your first instinct was to be skeptical of the skeptics, which made you a buyer. You figured to yourself, “everyone is bearish, therefore, ergo, I shall be long.” But you were forming an opinion in a vacuum. Like it or not, the people that you view on a daily basis, even the folks on Stocktwits and Twitter, are fairly sophisticated investors. Their so called ‘sixth sense’ about the market topping out after BABA and in September is 100% foreign to the corn farmer getting his teeth kicked out in Nebraska.
Your second instinct will be to buy this dip now. It has all of the hallmarks of an oversold decline and you are a very greedy, fat, man. But that’ll be a mistake too.
See here, pal, this isn’t your garden variety sell off. This is Armageddon, the sort of decline you will one day tell your grandchildren about.
“I remember that fucking dip in 2014. It nearly took me eyebrows clear off me head.”
“Oooh, tell me more grandpa. Tell me more.”
“It all started after that evil chinese Rumpelstiltskin entered the US markets and stole everyone’s money. I was a wee lad on the internets and had an idea or two about buying dips. Boy was I wrong…”
There’s always a lot of noise in the markets. Back in the late 90’s, the sole driver of stocks was the internet. You weren’t grabbing beta unless you played a dot com. It was literally insane. Companies would change there name from Joe’s Water Coolers to JoesWaterCoolers.com and the fucking stock would go goat crazy to the upside. I remember another interested fad, which was to play the stocks that Joe Kernan from CNBC would mention in a piece 10 minutes before the close. It was easy to game, since he usually mentioned stocks that changed their names to .com. My friends and I would be on the bloomberg all afternoon, trying to narrow down the list. When we nailed one, we would sometimes make 100% in less than 10 minutes.
Like I said, it was insane.
Nowadays, the moves are less intense, but still meaningful. There isn’t that energy in the market, fueled by runaway growth. Instead, there are pockets of strength, small fads, and then the real avenues for long term growth.
You have to remember what I am about to tell you, for it is the only thing that matters.
In today’s market, 3-d stocks are bullshit. The only avenues for sustainable growth are in energy, social media and healthcare. That’s it.
There isn’t any hardware makers worth talking about or restaurant chains on the come up. This economy is stagnant and the consumer is fixated on super high end stuff. The shopping mall wares are simply too cheap for the wealthy to pay attention to any longer. Find a good oil company in the permian basin, a social media stock that is improving life for degenerate humans, and a company who is on the verge of curing a disease, and you will have a prosperous time in this market.
The celebratory hang over of another all time high is in full effect this morning. After all, the stock market has never been better. All of the bad news is good and the good news is great. There isn’t any great news–but that’s okay. The Federal Reserve, and more importantly, the savage swine out of the ECB, have been busy making sure social disorder doesn’t become a reality. All of you beer swillers and sockdolagers of this era of unprecedented decadence have left the upper middle class in a state of permanent bohemia, hipsters with an indelible appetite for perversion.
All the while, the internals of the market speak to another truth.
Over the past quarter, 131 stocks were up 30% or more, while 172 were down more than 30%. When you lower the threshold, the results are even more damning. Two hundred and fifty eight stocks, god damn it, were up more than 20% over the past quarter, while a mind numbing 433 were down 20% or more.
For the average Joe, the guy eating donuts out of a greasy paper bag, this is detrimental–yet harmonious to the algorithmic based demons who man the trading turrets at Goldman Sachs.
Ove the past six months, The PPT oversold signal has proven to be right 6 out of 7 times for an average return of 1.35%. The overbought signal has been even more impressive, with the market going down 5 out of 5 occurrences for an average market loss of 0.86%.
Without question, we are in a period of hidden volatility, all the while that stupid garish VXX instrument, which was created inside of Darwin’s seventh level of hell, is at new lows. It’s a stock pickers market and I intend to take an ax to the faces of anyone who gets in my way.
The drifters and the wastrels have been dispatched over the past 3 months and come here to my blog to vent frustration. Back in April, when I displayed a certain air of mortality, these parasitic roads slobs left countless messages, which spelled out foreboding doom and an ending to the era known as Fly. You sold my bottom and now I am dancing atop your skinless skulls.
Yields raced lower today, as high valuation stocks took right hooks to the ribs. Over 370 stocks dropped by more than 3%, otherwise known as distribution. I did not, however, escape unscathed–losing 0.2% for the day–miserable for being long SOL, ARWR and a myriad of other momentum names.
TLT is King now. All other securities are simply inferior.
As of this second, just 28% of stocks are heading higher. You might feel lucky in your little birds nest because you happen to have one of those stocks. But you haven’t thought it through. You haven’t thought about your mother and her two stupid sisters who are getting their eyebrows kicked off today, as more than 310 stocks decline more than 3% for the session.
Every action has a reaction. Wait it out. Go bird watching and buy your wife a bouquet of flowers. Quit being such a bedraggled microbe.
Utilities and REITs are the biggest winners today. Don’t play yourself, homie. Go eat a sandwich.
I’m a little upset at myself for falling for the old huckle buck the other day, buying SOL ahead of BABA. It was as clear as the day was long: this bastard IPO was going to suck every single last penny out of the market, then kick it down a flight of stairs. Mind you, I knew about this well in advance, all the way back in April. Meticulously, I positioned myself in a myriad of utilities and made TLT my largest and boldest position in years. Thus far, everything I planned for came true, with two minor distractions.
I bought ARWR and SOL ahead of BABA, as a way to drink the Koolaid with all of the cool kids roaming the exchange halls. It wasn’t desirable to be long just bonds and electricity companies and it was hard for me to get a date for prom night.
Nevertheless, I will manage my way out. I always do. Now that I am down 10% in SOL, I will either sell it or double down. I’d rather do nothing today.
For the remainder of the day, I’d rather watch as the prophecy reveals itself to be true and all of the clowns in all of the clown vans fall perilously off the side of the mountain.
