OH NO! THE NASDAQ IS DOWN FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER

What next?

What’s next is this: giant fucking melt up in October, mother llamas.

Let me explain.

I was nervous about a large drop in september–but it didn’t happen. Technically, it could still happen, but not very likely. Let me walk you though some history, son, grab your pencils.

Since 1999, the NASDAQ has been down in september on 6 previous occasions, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2011. Being that 9/11 occurred in 2001, it’s safe to say that was an outlier event. 2008 was also an outlier event, as the world was crumbling to pieces.

Here are the returns in september and october for the years mentioned above.

2000: -12.7%, -7.9% (dot come debacle)

2001: -21%, +17%

2002: -11.8%, +18.45%

2003: -2.9%, +8.5%

2008: -15.5%, -15.5%

2011: -4.5%, +10.4%

Which year is this market most like, if you were forced to choose, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008 or 2011? I know the circumstances were different and there is no perfect match, but entertain me.

I already know the answer: 2003

The returns were greater back then–because we were climbing out from the abyss. But the patterns, month by month, match.

My best guess: we run higher by 5% in October.

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