Wednesday, December 7, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,857 Blog Posts


I remember back in 2000 how I just watched my assets shrink on a daily basis, stuck in disbelief as an unrelenting market did permanent damage to me. It would take me more than 3 years to rebuild my business and I never forgot those lessons, until about 8 weeks ago.

I sold almost everything today and now sit with 90% cash. Whether the market rallies from here, or if I marked the bottom in stocks, that is immaterial to me. This is a mountainous fuck up on my behalf and it will take me a long, long time to not only recover from this, but regain the confidence to make it back. As the saying goes, “scared money makes no money.”

My year to date losses were stopped out at about -32%, that’s another -13% for this week alone. Clearly, the beta was too high. It’s obvious that I should have sold long ago. Yes, I should have done a million things differently. I’ve managed around each and every market crises almost without flaw, until now. We all have our comeuppance, at some time or another. Today I got mines.

As an aside, I appreciate the words of encouragement by many of you out there. Some of you have truly proven to be my friends, and I thank you for that.

I doubt I will muster the balls to invest this cash anytime soon. I am sure I can find something to chat about until I regain my composure. Perhaps I’ll just talk shit all day, poking fun at the clowns on the teevee. Or maybe I’ll attack another blog and redesign the site to look like a fucking pirate ship–steal their bounty.

With regard to stocks, I have a semi-managed growth index inside of The PPT that is vastly outperforming the “other” growth stocks. I might delve into that a little bit.

It feels good to get the monkey off my back and I look forward to witnessing the end of civilization, as we know it, in the coming days and weeks to come.


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  1. hmm

    looks like the low is in here for FEYE

  2. AdHoc

    You will come back…sorry dude it feels like shit

  3. Scungelli


  4. jtizzle

    Best of luck to you! Always enjoy reading your blog and tweets.

  5. Astronaut Von S.D. Deluxe
    Astronaut Von S.D. Deluxe

    The Fly Is God!

    • The Zombie

      Indeud. Prediction: The Fly still finishes the year at His usual 20+% gains. And moar. His next move is His finest.

      The Fly is God.

  6. xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
    xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

    I’m sincerely sorry for this outcome….I was hoping you would get a meaningful bounce to exit on. -30% is a tough loss, but I do believe you are going to get the chance to get back in this market much lower.

    But do think of this — you will sleep well tonight for the first time in a while (at least, i would imagine).

  7. figesmalls

    Do not give up…you are a valuable resource to many people here who read your posts. I for one do not enjoy your losses and am certain your will recover nicely in due time.

  8. jb

    Nobody knows where the bottom is (today could be it potentially), but either way to make it back (which you will do soon enough), you need to have a clear mind and confidence. This is the first step in attaining that. Good luck Fly! I hope you continue to post and comment, because 9 times out of 10, your advice has been helpful and appreciated.

  9. Johnrotten

    You’ll be Ok soon, Bro. I’m going on a week long drinking trip to The Riviera Maya this Tuesday, coming back the day after Cinco De Mayo. You’re welcome to come drink tequila with me and yell “Areeeba”

  10. kelkun

    Eh…you’ll be back, I have no doubt. So you got a strikeout. Happens. Fact of the matter, since I’ve been coming to IBC, the homerun to strikeout ratio is insanely high. What makes it even more impressive is it was achieved with extreme transparency. Good on you, and good luck.

    • The Equalizer

      There’s a name I haven’t seen in a while. It’s been a rough month for a lot of people. I took a couple of weeks off during the chop, heavy cash, I’ll be back in the game eventually. Good to see you still around, hope all is well.

      Also, much respect to The Fly for integrity and transparency throughout a hellish drawdown. I have the option of walking away from the game for a few weeks; people who do it for a living don’t have that luxury.

      And just for the record, FIG.

  11. John Hager

    Fly, I believe you will recover from this. Your PPT over sold, over bought signal is the best I have ever see. Hang in there.

  12. figesmalls

    BTW, I hate my image….

  13. Bruce J Keller

    Well there is a case for a H&S on the NQ daily. I don’t believe it though. We still have the Fed at the printer. Although the sector you were betting on might be pretty hurt. I’ll just let my FEYE June 75 call become worthless. 😀

    • Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion
      Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion

      Nobody gives a shit about you and your dumb FEYE you half breed imbecile. Im sure the Stupidest Man in The Entire Fucking Galaxy has other things to do besides go on and on and on and on about his massive portfolio of 1 stock. Is there not an Imbecile convention missing its leader?

      • Bruce J Keller

        Lol, I got the FEYE call option for shits and giggles. Why would you assume me mentioning that one security denotes that it constitutes 100% of my positions? That’s silly Gary.

      • steve berg

        LOL Stop Gary. You still owe me Heat tickets!

    • LVS666

      you know what bruce? fuck you

  14. ToddinFL

    Square it up and reset; nothing wrong with that. Live to play another day. You’ll be fine in short order.

  15. Kurt

    I look forward to the comeback. You’ve done it before, you’ll do it again.

    • Poppin' Off

      You also have a flute. Dare I say I am a better flute-player? I am certainly more attractive than you.

  16. Tony

    “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”

  17. AdHoc

    People prob need to quit saying “the low is in here for $FEYE”, unless they just hate their money. Yes it has filled the gap but the way these names are being taken to the woodshed I doubt “the low” is in. I’ve seen that statement on this board every day for weeks and it keeps going lower. Maybe if it consolidates and bases for a week or so and holds after its “earnings” the low may be in. Good luck just my thoughts

    • hmm

      the low is in for FEYE here. just stating the facts

      • Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion
        Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion

        you are a moron. your wife should not trust you with money. If the market is just starting to crumble, that low is about to go much lower.Much.Fucking.Lower.

        What the fuck is it w the retards on this site and that piece of garbage company and shit sho of a stock.

  18. johnny joker

    that took an incredible amount of courage. you are a fighter. you’ll be back with a vengeance. i have no doubt.

  19. paradox

    Congratulations on biting the bullet. It sucks but anyone who has invested long enough has been there. Even if they go up immediately (which is dubious), they weren’t showing good relative strength at all. Clean slate now – yeah!

  20. Jesus

    Bless you my son. The casino is now closed.

  21. Mightybillfuji

    You should not forget that the Fed is not out of here. Civilization is going to prove harder to end especially if the Fed stays in the system Japan-like which I suspect. Those who are shorting now, especially crowding into every nook and cranny of the high beta space, should be careful of such new “sure things”

    Yellen need to show she has the whip hand, and just a slow down of the taper to 5 billion a meeting at the next meeting would cause quite a release of this compressed spring. I don’t really trade those high beta names you do/did…but I see way to much confidence now in the bears not for a speed bump to appear.

    Good luck in your recovery. I’m sure you will achieve it, in an immodest time, and with an impeccable top hat.

  22. sam

    thanks for the honesty.

    valuable lesson for new investor.

  23. THE_WOLF

    it should read
    “down, but not out”

    We learn something about ourselves when we are up against the wall, and we do most certainly come out stronger.
    a quitter never wins,
    and a winner never quits,
    we all know which one you are professor fly,
    you will rise from the ashes,
    like a phoenix

    • Mogulhound

      As they say pride cometh b4 the fall. Now that you’ve had to bite the bullet, you’ll be back, very tough mkt. been trading smaller than small lately and survived. Fly IS NOT GOD! and don’t forget it. You’ve done some great work and I’m absolutely sure we’ll see a newer and better version of “The FLY” after a some chill time. We’ll see you when your easy in your saddle again. It’ll always be here. Begging u to jump in.

      • The Zombie

        Mogulhound– The Fly IS God. Don’t YOU forget it. I’m sure He appreciates your reassuring pat on the shoulder, but He doesn’t need advice, proverbs, cliches, or any assistance from newbs/trolls. He shall return 20%+ this year once again.

  24. SCJ

    Best wishes. Thank you for your time.

  25. chub

    @FLY, always appreciate your honesty. one true quality that separates you from other bloggers. Best of luck

  26. TheGameTheorist

    Hang in there, I just joined 12631 days ago and have benefited immensely already….
    If for anything, think about how many young guys you have helped grow and become better traders through your blog, all while being hilarious at the same time! Even with -32% losses, you’ve got more money than I’ll likely ever see in my lifetime.

    bclund had a good blog post to keep perspective. I’m sure you’ve seen it.

    • Bruce J Keller

      34 years ago? Jesus.

      • Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion
        Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion

        What no mention of your dumb stock? Fucking hell boy, go on and tell us about how the low is in or your brilliant option play. Maybe put a smiley face at the end of it because you are a grown man and thats what MEN do.

        I just noticed something- it has been almost 10 minutes since you have said something profoundly stupid. My diary of Impressively-Stupid-Things-Said-By-Anonymous-Internet-Ass-Clowns needs a line entry and I know you need to blabber. Go on, go for it – we know you’ll impress.

        • Cascadian

          The real Gary K is less cruel.

        • Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion
          Gary Kaultbaums Absurd Notion

          Here, I fix for you.

          The real Gary K is less…

        • alf44

          … cut tha guy some fuckin’ slack !!!

          Is he somewhat laughable ?

          Probably !!!


          But, is it REALLY necessary for YOU to be SO blatantly “wheels off” ?

          Gotta tell ya … between tha two of you … “Gary” … YOU are the clear “NUTJOB” here …

          Not even a hard decision to make !!!

          You need to STFU !!!


  27. djmarcus

    Only a matter of time before you’re back on top, slapping your enemies in the face with hot slices of pizza whilst cruising in your stretch 80s limo…

  28. jules

    I got stuck in the growth stocks too and am down quite a bit, but I am taking this as a learning experience (this is the first time I’ve been through something like this). Your blog is truly insightful and I appreciate the real advice and theses you provide. Keep at it, your thoughts have really inspired me. Cheers.

    • Blang

      Much love on the avatar Jules. Named my dog the same in honer of the great character / performance.

  29. Gary

    being bullish in a bull market (which it still is) is a correct stance, the only mistake was you were to focus on one sector….

  30. xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
    xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M


  31. dae42

    Head up…eyes forward. Take a deep breath and drink some scotch. Then get back to the (research) grind soon and uncover the next batch of opportunities. Winship will return. Just my $0.02. P.S. Kudos for the consistent transparency and willingness to communicate frankly about losing positions.

  32. drake sucks


  33. TheGameTheorist

    Here’s the link for you and anyone else:
    It’s helped me to reread in the past when I have poor performance and get tunnel visioned on it.

    Hope this helps someone.

    • chrismark

      worthwhile read for sure – thanks

      • TheGameTheorist

        yeah i think i lost 4 % of my port in a day or something and i was pretty shook up. stumbled upon this and helped a lot. like wow…. life can just flip you the fuck upside down when you least expect it.

  34. BreakingOutBad

    I appreciate your humor in this frustrating time for bio and momo tech stocks. Having a rules based system and sticking to it is what separates one from the pack of slaughtered retail sheep and professional mistraders alike. Also appreciate your transparency despite these losses. It takes a big person to be honest about this type of stuff which is why you see so few losers on Twitter.

    To future success Fly.

  35. Fidel Cash Grow

    Sorry Fly. Looking forward to you doing more PPT based trading in the future.

  36. Biggranddaddy

    This not a funeral…..and a lesson to never follow blindly

  37. Rexicus

    What are your gains over the last 10 years? What will it be in the next 10? This is likely nothing more than a hiccup in the grand scheme of your life. Back in 2001 I sold my web hosting business when I was 28. Suddenly had my hands on 1.2 million dollars and thought I was the biggest and smartest guy on the friggin planet. Nothing could stop me. I invested most of that cash in and LOL. was gonna replace the friggin post office. What a moron I was. Took some time and effort to get my mind right again but stuff happens and you move on. Good luck.

  38. MSPM

    Spend time with family for they are the most important thing and forget about this market and these people for at least the weekend. Take piece of mind that you been here before and survived-which you will do again.

  39. Gates

    Fly – we’ve all blown up accounts before, it took me 3 before I went to cash (slow fucking learner I am). Take some time off and formulate a new game plan, smell the roses – gotta say “fuck it – it’s only money” when this happens – you know how to make it back.

  40. xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
    xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

    Where the fuck is Mr. Jennifer….thats what i want to know.

  41. og

    Is this what capitulation feels like? Fuck….

    • xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
      xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

      Not at all. We haven’t even broken support of the new high breakout.

      Just getting started friend.

      • it is showtime

        Has been building quite a while

        Indexes kept up either
        1) appearance everything’s fine
        2) actually suck people in

        Hasn’t just snuck up for those paying attention

  42. dishobgyn

    you are the greatest and my idol.
    no homo

  43. surplusdroids

    I have read this blog for a lonnng time.

    The Fly ALWAYS comes back.
    Keep punching Fly. Always pulling for you.

    In quo confidis IBC.
    (In IBC we trust.)

  44. Mooseasaurus

    you’ll be back and better than before.

  45. Trading_Nymph

    Can we go play with the Faz Mobile? I want shotgun.

    • TheGameTheorist

      maybe FAZ instead 😛 3x short financials

      • Trading_Nymph

        That is the nickname for FAZ here. It is an amazing car which is totally pimped out. Cocaine Central Bankers have been keeping it locked in the garage for years now.

  46. maximus

    I knew a man once who said, “Death smiles at us all. All a man can do is smile back.”

  47. oldmantrader

    nothing like a large dose of cash to cure an ailing portfolio – a fresh start without the clouded vision of the day after day beatings

  48. zach

    FLY finally pukes it out. there is more selling to come, but the low is very near my friends. within the next couple weeks

  49. Genghis Khan

    Sorry to hear this happen to you Fly, I feel personally sad because I have read your blog every day now since the old site. I recently made a lot when buying COG, and then lost all of it (no loss though) last quarter when they reported, only to find it today nearly where it was before the decline to $32. Trading is hard for us small plebs, and harder still when we see a Space Alien Magician make such losses. My sincerest apologies to you. I just hope you find a way to come back, and soon. ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU AND YOURS.

  50. alf44


    Apologies for this re-post :


    Well, I guess the 
 “NetSuite (N) is the Holy Grail” thesis is being seriously tested here !


    Been taken to the woodshed since the “Holy Grail” post of 1 month ago (-15%) !!!

    Earnings on Monday !


  51. UncleBuccs

    Dr. Fly, 100% Respect from down this way. One of the things I’ve admired about you is your ability to quickly react & adjust the gameplan, sometimes within minutes of your previous one. I’ve witnessed commenters try to call you out on this, only to be met with the seemingly flippant response of “I changed my mind”. Not being stuck to something that isn’t working is easier said than done.

    I look forward to following along for the next chapter. One day, while scribing from your throne, you’ll reflect back on this, most likely with a headline that begins “On The Important Matter Of….”

  52. Rebuild

    Fly, reading your blog over the years has provided immense insight and enjoyment.

    You’re a fine investor; you will recover by recommitting to the rules that have brought about all your former successes. This is a large bump, for sure, but if you won’t climb back, what hope do we plebs with six-figure accounts have?

    Look at Montauk Bill, with his terrible long JCP/short HLF trade. He sold JCP at the lows then only to have it drift even lower into oblivion. He had to cover HLF and lose hundreds of millions. Now, he’s making it back with AGN. You’ll recover too.

    Few people have the honest balls to publicly discuss their losses. Much respect.

  53. Train Wreck

    I feel your pain, sorry to hear about this

    Appreciate the honesty and humility you’ve shown on this blog – and you are one of the most talented writers I’ve read…

    These are dark days for me as well, but take a deep breath, spend time with family, reflect on the good in life — and keep writing and blogging

  54. matt_bear

    hat tip sir. i talk shit to you a lot and I also give props. I try to stay real, and no matter the person on this site, I never wish financial losses on fellow iBC traders. Clearly the weight on your mind was too much. You made the right call. Congrats on coming out of the financial closet.

  55. Mr. President

    The grande piano is off your shoulders now. My advice, for what it’s worth, is to close your browser now, and go enjoy your family. Get some peace in that brain.

  56. Woj

    Hang in there Fly. I’ve learned a lot from you over the years. Locking in losses always feels horrible, but at least you have a clear head now. The start of the rest of 2014 on Monday, good luck.

  57. vendeburras

    everyone loves you, fly. That’s gotta be worth something. Good Luck. I went long DATA yesterday and I’m barely underwater GILD. Vey small. If they both go to zero I don’t really care. Thats how much risk I am willing to take.

  58. chiefton15

    Tough run. Your one of best and honest traders out there and happen to run the best financial site around. This shit will make you a better trader when it’s all said and done.

  59. mark

    best of luck fly. way to clean the decks. the market’s open every day.

  60. matt_bear

    sugar ray pic is very classy.

  61. The margin dude


  62. Anton

    Hey, Le Fly,

    As a reader from just about the beginning of your online adventure, I’m sorry for your loss. Have always appreciated how you not only perform the magic tricks here, but explain how they’re done.

    I hope you can take some time away from trading and look forward to your next moves and subsequent bloggery.

  63. Juice

    appreciate the candor, forthrightness, honesty … good values Senor T.

    you’ll figure it all out

  64. byhiselo

    every single one of us will leave this place with nothing…so we got nothing to lose:

  65. Mr. Partrdige

    You do what you have to, period.

  66. Stockthrust

    its ok Fly. For now daytrade, dont position trade unless you want to go short. And if you do, take it easy, go with index etfs. Screw stocks.

  67. Cygod

    Having read your blog for years, this is the first time I have to say “Fly is God”!

    You went all IN and you’ve come all OUT. It really takes brass ones to push the envelope like you do and live to tell the tale!
    But remember, what doesn’t break you only makes you stronger!

  68. Novie

    Hang in there, Fly. You’ll be back better than ever in due time.

  69. Jennifer

    “Where the fuck is Mr. Jennifer
.thats what i want to know.”

    Mrs. Jennifer is still here. Long Solars and biotechs since 2 weeks ago. Up 16% YTD.

    How’s EWZ?

  70. juiceman

    The fix is in. This market is gonna crash.

  71. Poppin' Off

    It’s more than possible to end the year up from there. It’s clear you can do it too. Just take a breather for as long as you need. One day you will be shaving in front of the shower mirror and you will stop shaving and slap the whipped cream off your face and realise you need to go to Teavana, or some other such outlet I’ve never been to, a Yankee Candle “store.”

  72. SK

    Yeah Fly you got this. Back to even with vigor and tenacity and then only winship from there.

  73. Hugh Hendry

    Fly, with last year’s 70% and this year’s -32% you’re at the equivalent of making about 16% last year, which is not too shabby in itself. Get back in the trading turret, son, you’ve recovered from worse before.

  74. J Livermore

    You’re a great man Fly. This isn’t a fucking funeral.

  75. it is showtime

    Top. Held.

    It was substantial enough to proclaim (again)

    Have top.
    Now. A.
    Lower High!
    (uh oh)

  76. Greg

    i felt the need here to crawl out of lurk mode and thank you, sir, for this blog. i started trading a couple of years ago and have been reading your blog for the better part of that time. its helped me understand our market and how to stomach the game. your humor has been reconfirming on the worst and best days (no homo). so take some time off if you need to, get some fresh air.. but come back weilding a katana! looking forward to it.

  77. soupbone

    Our greatest financial asset is our own skills (motherhood statement but true for many). The Fly has many skills: look at this website and how entertaining it is, as investor look at how nimble The Fly has been (not just now?? but in 2009), and then that jesus-talent in written English (no offense intended), and all the other stuff we can only imagine.

  78. Tom

    I do joke around with you on Twitter but I’m sorry for this rough patch you’re going through. I have been there too–more than once–and anyone who has been in this game for any length of time has also.

    It starts with taking the time you need to regain a perspective which you can’t help but lose during a period of tough losses. Well you know that.

    I wish you the best Fly.

  79. john

    my inheritance 100k went into the nasdaq 100 in 1999 and came out in 2002 at 15k, everyone said stay in, always comes back, i’m not comparing to you, i didn’t have a clue about the market

  80. Mister Jinx

    You’ll be back and will make more money than ever.

  81. bombarq

    Been a trader over 13 years and started reading you maybe for the last 5-6 months. The best site i have where i am always curious when the next post is. Who knows if you can recover your losses or not, but definitely you have been an inspiration . Feel sorry for the loss, but also feel relieved at least it is finally done and out. Appreciate all the posts and the environment you created.

  82. Mister Jinx

    Want to say that I have incredible respect for how open you are on this. It makes me want to keep reading what you have to say, and I’m sure it has that effect on many others as well.

    So many of those on Twitter, StockTwits, and elsewhere would just obfuscate what’s going on. You haven’t done that and deserve a ton of credit for it.

  83. alf44


    MAN !!!

    These NEW avatars are like watching an episode of Sponge Bob … after dropping a hit of Acid !


    At least, that’s what I would “think” it would be like !

    I certainly have no prior experience in such things !


  84. i bank ponderances
    i bank ponderances

    I have not business being in these stocks, but I felt it appropriate to dip my toes into a little bit of FEYE, YELP & DATA a few minutes after this capitulation post was made. I will certainly pull these early next week if the bloodbath continues. Good luck, all.

  85. xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
    xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

    Let’s close this one ugly, boys. Send em to the canvas!

    • ironbird

      You are fighting the machine thinking the SPY aka EBT Card, Pension Fund piggy bank is going to crater. It is now a socialist policy tool.

      • ironbird

        And if that sounds similar to “it is different this time”. It was supposed too.

      • it is showtime

        I’ll make the rubberband analogy. Can only stretch it so far. Cratering or not. Remember, faith in Fed and Fed’s own view, 6 years ago, lulled into bubble.

  86. Bozo on a bus

    Fly, I can honestly say I learn something from every single post you write.
    I think too many people are quick to blame this drop on Ukraine, or some Fed speech, and think it’s temporary. I see more fundamental issues at work. Guess we’ll find out.

  87. gatorsun

    Fly you have officially become a loser shameful

  88. anon

    my prediction is, you will be buying stocks on monday. you are addicted, like the rest of us.

  89. YEY


  90. growly

    It’s good to know that even traders like Fly can experience the kind of losses I thought only I had (like in VHC
although ironically, it was actually up today.)
    This is a tough tape to trade, long or short. I appreciate your honesty in posting your thoughts here so publicly. This too shall pass.

    There sure are a lot of anonymous douche bags who post vile trash here and seem to feed off others misfortunes. Gotta love the internets. Glad bannings were reinstated.

  91. jeff

    FEYE was my biggest loser in many years and I got out 20% higher from today’s close. My total losses were 23% for that one stock. The bottom line is momentum trading is dead right now and stocks aren’t responding at key support levels or to earnings. This is a warning sign.

  92. Bart Smith

    That fat greek chick on twitter Mella is telling everyone. “Fly blew up his account”
    What a worthless POS.

  93. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Sorry to hear. I was hoping you would be gifted a V shape to cash out into. Just a brutal development

    • it is showtime

      Consequences of bubbles. Ok juiced pumped forced easymoney sector, at the least

      It’s not brutal. Everything thinks “things are so good” because things are going up.

      Maybe this time “we” will learn

  94. alf44


    FWIW, my FAZ Long is sittin’ @ a bit over + 2.5% with today’s Close !

    Needs to get above it’s 55 EMA (~ 20.88) !


  95. ironbird

    Watching the little girls talk with Howard as a closing bell on retard teevee. Is proof the tape is doomed.

  96. incometrader

    I said this before, we’re 4-5 months into a major topping process – the 2007 one took 7 months to complete.

    High beta goes first and then everyone follows but it takes time.

    • it is showtime

      I’m hoping

      4-5 months is correct though. Amazing how the characteristics are ignored, even though they are the same characteristics

  97. gorby

    Make like a Quaker except you have dough.
    You just arrived in America and the world-well at least New York- is your Oyster.What would you do.First hook
    up with friends and drink apple cider till
    you’re drunk.Then give the wife the time
    of her life.Then appreciate all the love around you.Then you’ll get an idea and
    you will be back.

  98. Rong Xu

    The Honorable Mr. Fly:

    I feel for your losses as much as my own.


    Rong Xu

  99. Gravestonedoji


    That is all.

  100. incometrader

    This comment section feels like a memorial and everyone is paying their respects to the departed.

    The Fly is still up 16% since Jan 2013 and there’s 7 months left in the year.

  101. reasonableguy

    Mr. Fly, the experience and expertise that repeatedly brought you to the heights will certainly bring you right back there, and much sooner than you think. This I know.

  102. Zach

    Sweet baby Jesus, thank god you finally let go! GL in the future

  103. Schizo168

    Thanks FLY!! You are finally FUCKIN OUT.. I just went all in on yelp today ..see ya $65 next week when yellen comes out

  104. 2wolfgangs

    Awesome photo. (I see what you did there!) Your blogging is always impeccable even if the trading hasn’t been for the last few weeks.

    Rest up before your next big win.

  105. soupbone

    Double trouble: bereavement and exorcism at the same time. It will take time

  106. Jack Mungo

    I’ve been at this since I began trading commodities in Chicago in 1965. I’ve never seen anything like “OUT”. No traders, and very few human beings, are capable of that kind of honesty. Best wishes for speedy recovery.

  107. alf44


    alf44’s Five Stages of Grieving a Stock Trading Drawdown

    1. Denial
    Against the better judgment of everyone around us, we can’t help but entertain fantasies of things somehow working out. We see hidden glimmers of hope buried in clear indications that … it’s over !

    2. Anger
    Anger can manifest in many different ways … anger at God or the universe … anger at people or situations … anger that your “stocks” have lost their MoMo and anger at other people who don’t agree or stand with your anger !

    3. Bargaining
    Bargaining often goes hand in hand with denial.  Bargaining can be looking for any possible way to make the “position” work.  Many people bargain with The Powers That Be, promising to be a better “trader” …  if only your “stocks” will come back.  During this stage, you may take a new interest in astrology, tarot cards or any type of voodoo that will forecast your recovery !

    4. Depression
    Depression, like anger, also surfaces in many different forms, for example feeling tired all the time … trouble sleeping or sleeping too much … loss of appetite or overeating … increase in drug or alcohol use and, hopelessness !  Hopelessness makes it feel like you will never move on and that nothing will ever work out for you in the future !

    5. Acceptance
    Finally, this is the phase in which we are able to make peace with the “stock loss”.   It doesn’t always come on suddenly; it often happens gradually, little bit by little bit,  interspersed with some of the other phases.  Acceptance doesn’t always involve harmony and flowers – there is almost certain to be lingering sadness and regrets.  Acceptance entails making peace with the “stock loss” …  letting go of the “stock loss” and slowly moving forward with your “trading career”. Sometimes it feels like this phase will never come, which usually means you’re still struggling in an earlier phase.


     Knowing your phases of grief can help normalize your “blow-up” experience. It’s also important to know that there are no time limits and no rushing the process. Grieving is like digestion: there is nothing you can do to hurry it along. It takes time and the only thing you can do is try to get through it. 

    But take heart in the fact that this, like everything else, will eventually pass !!!


  108. AJ

    Greetings Dr. Fly, I read all the posts above and the amount of love and respect the people have for you is amazing. I have been reading you since broker A and B days. One thing is clear you are a very talented writer as well as trader. There is no way you will be beaten by the recent events. Once you feel your head is clear, you will be back twice as strong. That is a fact not an opinion. In the unlikely event you chose not to trade, you have a future as an author. I really appreciate what you have done for all of the followers of this site. You have put together an amazing collection of talented traders/writers/teachers here. Also the PPT algorithms are pure genius. There is no way you will be beaten by this. Stay well my friend.

  109. SailorBoy

    Good grief, man. Pull it together. You are far from being ‘done,’ but you need to keep fixing.

    Bless you, first step taken. You cut your losers. Yes, all of them are going higher by 100%. On Monday. Deal with it.

    Now clear your head. Turn the whole site over to minions. Go read a Clavell book or two. Start with Shogun or Taipan, and definitely not King Rat or Whirlwind. Don’t come back for at least 7days, 10days is best. Don’t even look at a chart.

    Next, get back on that horse. You are only done if you continue to do nothing. Get back to what you do best and make money starting in May. Then in Q2, then in Q3. Forget about Q1, it sucks and you need to answer those questions later. Don’t make it Q1 and Q2 that you need to answer questions about.

    Man up. Know thyself. Fix things and move on. It is not too late.

  110. getoutofstocks


    I sold out of all my longs today. Thanks for giving me company. I am done losing money to WallStreet.


  111. Dale Bailey

    I’ve been reading your blog since the original design. In all the ensuing years I have never read anyone who was as openly honest about their performance in the markets, be it up or down. For that alone I trust your idea and respect your thoughts. Plus, you are the best writer bar none.
    While you are getting your mojo back, remember the Yoda quote, “Long the war is, only by surviving it will you prevail”.

  112. xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
    xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M


    I hope you are like the famous fund manager i read about, when someone got a glance at their personal investments, were 100% in municipal bonds.

    I can only assume thats the case.. I bet you are in granma yellen investments across the board.


  113. hook

    nice move getting out fly, fyi i think writing about your positions could play a role in making you believe in them more than you maybe should. I had a boss who was an asshole and thought the best way to manage people was to be a devils advocate and question any risk a trader put on, thus forcing traders to constantly defend their positions to him. in a sense it made me more committed to the positions than i should have been b.c i loved to prove him wrong

  114. Masterpain

    I heard the Fly got bitchslaped . I had to come over . How dare you ban me 15 times. Now pick yourself up tough guy and get cracking some nuts. You are the FLY! Need I say more.

  115. Stockthrust

    its time to make it back Fly. But first take a few weeks to create.a business plan and vow not to take the drawdown you did. Vow to close account if more than 15% drawdown. You need that as a business rule.

    • The Fly

      I always sell at -10%.

      • xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
        xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

        It happened so quickly, and across every single holding. That’s what made it special. Plus, to your earlier point, rarely does a bounce not occur in such situations.

        It was basically a 4-sigma event, you played the odds, and the outlier played out.

        I have made riskier bets on worse odds and pretty much always had them turn out ok. This is a lesson that if you play long enough, those long-shot odds eventual get you. And it only takes once. (for most people, not money managers).

  116. JHiner

    As any serious long term trader knows capital preservation is as important as trading. Its a tough emotional period but is critical for long term success. Rip the bandaid off, take some time to detach then get back to what made you successful. If managed improperly one bad trade can destroy a lifetime of good work.

  117. Sloop

    Mr. Fly,
    Making -32% up will be a cake walk for you sir. God bless.

  118. Engedi

    Fly is not GOD and Pride goes before the Fall, hopefully he has learned that lesson. If not he will learn it again and again

  119. Jennifer

    -32% requires a 50% gain to be even. Wait for a bounce into months end then pile into your favorite leveraged short

  120. Trading_Nymph

    Nymph’s Shanghai Copper Bubble maybe finally popping? Since 2009 we have had huge global liquidity from Central Banks and the Chinese stockpiling commodities in bonded warehouses and taking loans from the huge amount of Hot Money/liquidity that the central banks provided. In late Feb, we had a bond default threat in China. The default on a bond payment by China’s Chaori Solar signalled a reassessment of credit risk in a market where before even high-yielding debt had been seen as carrying an implicit state guarantee on it. Which stoked fears in the metals markets that the default was a sign of tighter credit to come for users of metals and for financiers that have used the metal as collateral for borrowing. At that point, the China Govt came in and bought up about 200,000 tons of Copper to stable it. But, with QE tapering, Abe on hold until Sept and Draghi just all talk and no action, the market is coming to grips that loans from the bonded warehouses may not be renewed and financing deals may start to unravel pretty fast. Plus, at 1755 on the SPX we hit the last major Fibo level until the 2200ish area. Perfect Storm …but I am a Bear.

  121. Jennifer

    I expected new highs into the fed meeting then a big drop. I’m flexible and have been since early march.

    • xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
      xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

      Fair enough, but you were clowning me yesterday for calling for a bloodbath.

      Its all guesswork, but point to HB on this one.

      Also, this coming week will not be kind to markets. And it has nothing to do with Ukraine.

      Economic weakness will be revealed in earnest.

      Those in the “know”, they already know. Thats why the “leaders” have been getting crushed. Thats why solid companies with great earnings are reacting negatively.

      Are you going to wait for it all to be “public knowledge?” Or read the tea leaves?

  122. Jennifer

    That is I sold 2/3 of longs today and am in a good chunk of cash

  123. xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
    xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

    But we can’t go to war with Russia. That is an apocalypse. Unwinnable.

  124. Jennifer

    Huggie I’ve said it for 2 months I don’t know of a single economist calling for a recession. That’s odd. Maybe everyone is right for first time in history. For now though weakness is still contained. I don’t know how but I’m up 16% thus far after epiic yr last yr. I’m playing small ball now. Btw you were long ewz going into today right? That actually underperformed spy for what it’s worth

    • xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M
      xxxHuggieBearxxx D.P.M

      If you’re up 16%, bully for you. I’m down 1/2% for the year. I’ve had a good year but my system led me into a bad trade in EWY and FXI a couple of months ago.

      EWZ underperformed today, but from my entry point I’m up substantially, and I believe it is one of the best performing country ETFs this year.

      Anyway, i’m not calling for a recession….I am expecting more or less a natural contraction in multiples in a low-growth environment with a less friendly fed. -15% from here wouldn’t mean a recession, just a normalization.

      But great for you if you are up 15%….thats impressive. I got headfaked on the china breakout earlier this year and am lucky to be back to nearly breakeven.

      BY the way, my EWZ is fully hedged at 45 on a cost neutral basis through May, so i have little if any downside over the next month. Currently also short about 20% of my portfolio value in ES futures at the moment. So 100% invested in EWZ, hedged at $45, with 20% short on the ES (on leverage obvs.).

      I plan to ramp up dramatically my ES short exposure next week if the econ reports come in negative, in particular the jobs report.

  125. bonobo smores

    Le Fly will be back with swagger. He works it, doesn’t twerk it.

  126. payshunt

    Hilarious stuff. And real as it gets. I’m a very recent reader. I began to think you were short these high flyers. Especially when you closed WDAY and picked DATA. Been there done it. Can’t stomach the volatility. Never could.

  127. Noni Kavuri

    Peter Lynch and Ben Graham win

  128. Raise Taxes, Raise Spending
    Raise Taxes, Raise Spending

    It’s just the fucking HFT’s chasing each other down.
    They don’t add liquidity, they just sell everything and bail.

  129. mojo

    Write a book about what you know…the stock market and being a stock trader.

    Funny and brutally honest. What you have seen and learned in your career. All the ups and downs. People in the trade you have known. Rules, commandments, techniques. Señor Tropicana, Horatio Clawhammer, Plutonium Petey. Fuckery and trickery and robbery. The nature of the market today.

    Pour it all out. Read or re-read ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ and use it as a guide. It doesn’t have to be ‘War and Peace’. Write your own reminiscences as a stock trader, updated for the 21st century.

    The new investor is hungry for that book right now. With your gift as a writer, you are in the catbird seat.

  130. James Caravel

    You are a great man fly…and great men always rise from the ashes….

  131. Hideous fibs

    Still the best information and opinions Fly, these Trolls must have left the Political blog out of sheer boredom
    Pay no attention

  132. Jose Mann

    Are you okay, sir fly ???

  133. davidmarkblack

    Popular Online Trader Reveals He’s Been Obliterated In The Market Lately

    Read more:

  134. MX2101

    This Oklahoma Sentinel auto-translated send-up is tasteless, intolerant and good for A laugh. The question is… will it re-publish a hip-hop lingo story in the King’s English?

  135. css1

    well, here’s my best guess

    a. nasdaq at a 15 yr double top
    b. banks are loaded up on japan, hey, it worked for usa, Europe, and when abe went all in, u got an immediate 40% in six months, problem, imho, zero followers to japan
    c. Russian fuckery, well 6 mini fuckeries in last 4-5 years did bupkas, yet, these guys are major world players with money all over the place, so risk this risk that is getting hammered
    c. housing negative
    d. we ran 60 months almost exactly from low to high in usa
    e. tightening free money only a tad
    f. the foolery came with commodity run ups from October lows that everyone yelled, here comes global growth
    g. all in all question is is it leveraged to the hilt at this point
    h. overall companies are same place last 3 years, good earnings, growth ehhh
    j. my personal savings grace was hmc in jan., bought a smide on the 21st low, and next day it didn’t react right and it’s own personal sell off started
    my account has swung from plus 15 to zero in last 4-6 months….thus my room for error was decreasing each month….and since i’m no longer a full timer….after a decade….cabin fever crazeee…when I was in…I was nervous and watched every tick for 3-5 days running between vxx and solars

    in conclusion if you follow pomo schedule imho it has even gotten to the point that schedule is timed to juice the market to perfection….now that they have less money, it was mid and backloaded in april…..we shall see

  136. EinMHorny

    Mr Fly, my little grasshopper, see what happen when you played with the big boys!

  137. trader stewie

    Everyone’s gets his ass kicked by mother market at some time or another. I think senor Fly did the right thing to cut his losses even at -30%. Its still very do-able to come back. Especially the Fly. It will take time of course but I have no doubt it can be done !

  138. ForgetAlpha

    When you lever up, pile into one sector, which was widely held by momentum traders and hedge funds…what do you expect to happen to your portfolio? Incredibly levered high beta is the definition of high risk high reward. If you make that bet long enough you’re bound to blow up eventually, especially if your risk management is based off your belief that “you always win.” But you’ll bounce back Fly, just don’t let these series of events scar you enough so you miss out on the upside.

  139. Kenny Powers

    the runner up for cover picture was Kenny Powers, saying his tag line ” Your F*ckin’ Out !”

  140. Paul Pertusi

    That’s the most real thing I’ve read in like 20 years. Monstrous balls to write it.