Reading the comments in the previous post, the hundreds of warm wishes on Twitter, alongside with the emails I’ve been getting– wishing me the best–I now know what it might feel like to be dead, yet live to see it–if you know what I mean.
Thanks for that. But we must move past this ugly business of harrowing stock market losses and get things back to normal around here: you throwing meat loaf at me, and I, in turn, bursting into a furious rage, threatening to do bodily harm to you and banning you from ever visiting the site again.
As for getting the money that was stolen from me back: I’ve already come up with a game plan for that. The fog of those bastard tech stocks had clouded my vision, as I was viewing things in a vacuum. Now that I’m out, I know exactly what needs to be done.
More on that tomorrow.
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Coming from the ashes to cut dicks off everywhere. I can’t wait to witness it.
HAHA. Yeaaaah
In a scant 19 hours time, the the hubris and incompetence that led to an epic blow up, has now “already come up with a game plan” to gain 50%, what he will need to break even.
Does anyone actually buy this? In 19 hours I now “have a plan” to make a 50% gain?
You haven’t learned anything clearly, as that type of assertion lets most readers know first hand how slapdash your work / methods are
Original don
Why is having a plan in such a short amount of time something unbelievable to behold? Is this my first go around on the rodeo? Do you honestly believe this business of stock trading to be so complicated that a plan cannot be hashed out in a day? Lastly, how do you know I haven’t been thinking ably this for the past month or it’s something that I’ve done before? Please…fuck off
It belies belief that a plan that is well thought out and actionable in a complex market with bigger smarter players can be formulated in such a short time.
IE the quality of the plan is low
It belies belief. Only douchebags talk like that.
It’s not complex. It’s rather simple actually. Does that make you mad? It should, simpleton
Is this how you talk to people in real life? Would explain a lot.
“You’re a douchebag” “You’re a simpleton”
Way to, ummm, make a persuasive argument
I am keeping it simple and writing from a phone. No need to be eloquent. If someone spoke to me in the manner that you are, we would not be having any words at all. You’d need to defend yourself.
How threatening.
Self defense is no problem for me. Though I’m surprised an “asset manager” would be so quick to desire a misdemeanor or felony assault/battery.
I think someone said I was just a blogger . Bloggers aren’t afraid of felony assaults.
Well there’s no right to carry in NJ, so that would be a good place to act out on your desires
simplicity is the ultimate sophistication
Dickguillotine2.0
Had very good moments myself and then things changed turning out so bad, ended up losing a lot more (%) than “The Fly”, so I think the despair is overblown.
However in that process, I was never ever even a bit tempted to be petulant as “The Fly”:
The moment you start feeling like a god, ala “The Fly”, the moment the market will show some humility
Fly 2014 predictions:
““The Fly” is going to win, again and again and again, as is customary for him to do so.”
“Biotech will continue to outperform, fueled by mergers and acquisitions.”
“The S&P 500 will rise by another 30%.. .”etc..etc
“The Fly” just top ticked the markets, that is something to really brag about.
You’re my hero Fly, deep bow
The previous 3 commenters are gay as AIDS
BEHOLD. Plutonium Petey is fully robed and sandaled, ready to partake in stock market winshippery. Well done.
– Much to the chagrin of the burlap and meatloaf crowd. Viz.
Before you fuckers declare me dictator of this island, let me at least kill some people.
Geez
lol. awesome.
Get ’em Fly. 🙂
Love your attitude fly! The market is nothing more than a series of battle in a constantly changing, never ending war. You lived to fight another day and your attitude shows just that. I’ll cheers General Le Fly to that!
I heard Fly sold iBC for $10B to $FB
20 billion. I demanded more than that stupid What’s App company.
I bet traffic on the site is through the roof
People love car accidents, especially when there’s lots of blood and brains all over the pavement.
As long as you took your losses before it destroyed your portfolio, past losses are irrelevant as far as finding the next big runners. There will always be runners out there, the trick is to focus on finding these runners instead of looking back.
Looking forward to witness your comeback.
Z
Dr. Fly, I’m very superstitious, and always seeing omens in everything. I can’t help but notice a correlation between the Black Swan pipe tobacco, and your misfortunes. It couldn’t possibly hurt to switch to a more bullish-themed blend, as you engage the new battle plan…?
Such fucking drivel. 32% drawdowns aren’t a mistake, they’re a personality disorder.
You shouldn’t be trading. You’re like the fund managers that claim to be so great when they road the bull market in the 90s. Any blind person could have made money in then past 5 years. It’s when environments change that reveal who the real professionals are.
You failed that test.
Noonipants
Failed? Yes
Why should I stop investing?
Going with your logic, I should stop because I lost money. That’s not a very logical course of action. It would be, if I have never enjoyed success. If I hadn’t made 60% in 2008 and 2009, and beaten the S&P every year but two over the past decade.
You would be right if I had no idea what I was doing. But I do and I don’t accept your criticism as being valid. I see it for what it is: one man’s opinion from a misinformed fucked face who’d be better off on the receiving end of my combat boots, than here, talking shit in these fine halls.
Are you a trader or investor? Figure that out first.
And using relative performance to justify your ego is crap. You manage a personal account. You should be able to crush the market if you had any idea what you were doing. North of 100% returns, I’m talking.
But taking a drawdown of that size is just not reflective of a professional. And your liquidity and ability to be nimble should almost guarantee avoiding a 32% loss.
It’s not like you have to shuffle billions of dollars around to exit these losers. It’s a pure lack of discipline. And if you don’t have discipline, you shouldn’t be trading.
Or are you an investor?
Figure it out.
Noonipants
You are talking in circles, truly trying to fit your reality of the situation to my own. You obviously haven’t been here very long. If you care to understand whom you are talking shit to, stay awhile, peruse the archives and learn. Go back to the darkest days of 2008 and 2009 and see how I handled it then.
Like I said, this was an outlier event and will never happen again. Instead of being that guy, the so called trading expert, I suggest taking a wait and see approach to how I dig myself out of this. I always do.
Oh, and I’m not trading a 5 fig personal acct at Zeeco. I’ve been in this industry since the 90’s.
My reality? It’s your fucking reality, pal.
And it’s facts that you provided. No circles here.
You’re talking nonsense. Investor vs trader.
All that matters are the results. Don’t preach pal, no one knows you from a hole in the wall.
Wow. Investor vs. trader is nonsense?
I don’t even know how to respond to that. Maybe I gave you too much credit.
I’m speechless.
And yes, it’s your reality if you willingly choose to ignore the facts about my career doing this, judging me only by this recent event.
The reality is that you just took a 32% drawdown. Not me.
The reality is that 2008-09 are history. They don’t matter any more.
It does matter, Noonipants. That was the single most difficult time to trade ever and The Fly was in and out of TNA/TZA and FAZ like the Space Alien Magician He is to huge profits. If you were here, you too would have witnessed legendary trading in horrifying conditions. You cannot discount that.
The trading environment in 08-09 was epic. For investors it was a nightmare. People made a ton of money from the long and short side when the world was collapsing. Only lemming buy and hold bag holders fail to recognize that.
Bottom line is he is a blogger. No serious trader has any time to run a blog and successfully trade consistently.
To the guy who keeps talking trash
Your original point was that I should stop trading because I lost money. My rebuttal pointed to a rich history of success and I didn’t feel like quitting. Let’s leave it there, ok?
See that’s the beauty of it, Noonipants. He takes time out of His busy schedule to help schmucks like us succeed. Do I have to take you through the 2008 timeline? Market’s crashing on a random Monday and everyone’s thinking 1987. Then they ban shorting of financial stocks. In a split second, you had to get out of your FAZmobile and into the FAS. There were MANY days like this; you just never knew when intervention would completely reverse 300-400 point declines. I’m sure you made it through that insane period unscathed without help.
You’re going to a fucking blog for help?
Just listen to what your saying.
Nobody should ever trade stocks part time. Or listen to anybody online, on TV, or selling anything. If they knew what they were doing they wouldn’t need to promote themselves.
Perhaps it’s your total lack on understanding markets that makes you think Fly Guy is so smart. But you’re not smart enough to figure that out.
I’m done. How can I argue with anyone named Noonipants.
Nooinfucktard
Fuck off. You’ve become more than a simple nuisance. You now are a troll and must be extinguished.
Banned
You sound like an old man who doesn’t know how to use a remote control. There are highly competent and intelligent people online who trade and share ideas. Dismissing all people who talk stocks online or the teevee is equal to not believing the radio is real, but a person talking inside of the box. It’s funny that you don’t realize how stupid you sound, smug, arrogant bastard
So, you’ve been in the biz for twenty years, you live in NYC/NJ the financial hub for the fucking planet earth, have beaten the index every year by a large amount….and you claim to be an asset manager?
Where are fucking assets? That’s how you know the story is BS, bc you run like 25m, which is nothing if anything else you say is even close to true.
Don
What is your point?
Yes I have a fucking plan. Yes I know exactly how to execute it. Talk shit after it fails, not now
?
Ok. Well looks like we are already in plan failed mode.
1. “Rode” not “road” (homonym)
2. “Trader or investor?”… ‘Are you a power hitter or do you hit for average?’…
…Who the hell cares?! The how-to school of stock market operating is such oversimplistic dribble. “Have a strategy & stick to it” is the worst strategy — naively idealistic. The market is a series of arbitrage opportunities, mispricings, and fleeting anomalies (e.g. momentum, value, etc.). Some last for minutes; others for years.
The only strategy that succeeds is an ever-evolving one, because the opportunities shift continually, and every cycle is different than those preceding it, which all means that the most opportunistic of operators will err repeatedly over every timeframe en route to repeated successes.
Perhaps the most naive of all the commentariat in the blogosphere are those of you who have come out of your mothers’ basements to ridicule The Fly. You’re likely more naive than he is drawn-down, because The Fly at least seems to know that 32% drawdowns come with his territory (although we all may try to prevent them). Why do you tell him what he “should’ve” done, as you stuck to your own “strategy” through everymarket, of which he kicked-ass repeatedly? 9 of the first 10 times you told him he was “wrong,” he was proven right, but now he should’ve listened to you? He’s still ahead-of-the-game methinks.
PS- I already had this written for The Fly’s eulogy one day; seems an appropriate time to share.
Investors take 32% drawdowns but don’t sell. They are buy and hold.
Traders don’t get even close to that.
You can’t be both a trader and investor, or shit like this happens. Typically, things start as trades, and then become “investments” when you are too stubborn to take a loss (5-10%).
Selling 32% down is retarded. Plain and simple.
Selling down 32% is retarded!? Really!?
So what’s better, cutting the loss, resetting, or riding it down to -55%?
Unless you have a magic Chrystal ball, shhhhh, shut up; you’re embarrassing yourself with these cow eyed claims of being an expert in trading. You are a jokester
It is fucking retarded.
It never should get that bad. Losses should be cut at 10%, if not less.
If you worked for a hedge fund, you’d be fired. No questions asked.
Noonipants–
I mean this in the politest way, so address it constructively if you address it at all…
A 10% drawdown stop loss is a hallmark of a paper or amateur trader. Rules like that are idealistic, academic trading. It’s like someone with sociological book smarts getting thrown onto the streets (or, in this case, “The Street”).
To The Fly’s point, nobody has a crystal ball to show that his 10% drawdown won’t reverse higher tomorrow. That’s what academics with hindsight bias don’t realize: the psychology and uncertainty of actual operation.
Actually study bull markets, bear markets, and corrections. Look at how many rallies you would’ve missed and the opportunity cost of missing them: http://thebuttonwoodtree.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/fear-the-crash-a-definitive-guide-to-corrections-bull-bear-markets/
And that assumes you capitulate after a 10% drawdown on a closing basis. Many more markets dipped < 10% intraday, then recovered immediately.
Another funny thing about academic, armchair operators is that they have an irrational bias toward loss aversion. They evaluate something like a -10% drawdown as a static datapoint, without holistically considering the subsequent opportunity cost foregone ("static, single variable analysis").
You have zero credibility to say who knows what after what we all just witnessed.
Know your place egg
Don
So losing 30% equates to zero credibility? What about the 70% from 2013, all done here too. Does that get forgotten because of this loss?
The manner in which you lost it removes your credibility.
Sort of like Bill Miller. He beat the index for 16 years, and yet, the complete incompetence he displayed destroyed his credibility.
In fact, you’ve made several mentions of this if I recall
Don
Bill miller was up 60% last year. Come on, son, this is stupid. You’re talking trash just to argue. I don’t owe you anything . I don’t have to show percentages, size, or anything. I don’t lie. You might be used to liars, maybe you’re a liar yourself . You don’t like it, leave. No one is forcing you to stay.
I don’t expect you to. But don’t claim that you are “transparent” when all you do is a loose projection of moves you do them.
My picks are transparent. I talk about when I buy them, how I but them etc. short of showing my acct statements, I don’t see how I could be more transparent.
And as long as we’re correcting typos.
It’s “drivel” not “dribble”. Except yours wasn’t a typo.
you are useless naive fuck
Actually, “dribble” works too, as in the drool or diarrhea leaking from your mouth.
Mine works, but yours was not even a typo — just misusing a homonym, which is ok, because you’re not a professional writer.
Can’t help but notice the correlation between the Naysayers here and the Guru FuckTards that spam My mailbox daily boasting Wins of 3000% even on a closed Market Day
And money wasn’t stolen from you.
You gave it away.
No, it was stolen–because it is rightfully mines and I will get it back.
Now fuck off, coffin stuffer.
The bottom is IN , YES !!!
I don’t think it is
I’m thing TZA for the summer. Any thoughts?
Thinking…
Bubble Basket
Everyone is an expert when things go bad. While it’s true, bad markets wash out the weak hands from the strong, the people who manage risk and those who don’t. I’ve always prided myself on the former. Those who know me can attest to that.
This is a unique experience for me, an outlier event, as I’ve been vert upfront with the circumstances surrounding my “draw down.”
Hindsight is always 20/20 and the people who never had the balls to ante up over the past 6 years and make a bundle of cash should just refrain from passing judgement, as anyone in this business knows this happen to everyone, if you’re going for beta. That’s what I do and it has worked for me since 1998.
Beta can cut both ways.
Yes it can. I didn’t lose money because of beta, however. I lost money because of a thesis gone awry.
Been watching you for five years. You are one of the best traders I have had the privilege to learn from. And the fact that you are honest about your trades is another reason you are top dog. God bless, we all know your story is not finished.
Another (in)famous “19 hour” thesis?
Long live the Fly. Down but never out. Glad to hear it.
After this year is over I will tell my grandchildren I knew of the Lazarus of Wall Street.
you made it onto business insider??? http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fly-out-2014-4
Thank You for the link.
The comments on that article are pretty apropos
Shocked you would think so
Fly has been spot on the market since I started here/ This is actually spot on “The Fly has always been a great blogger, and it’s refreshing that someone so public is so forthright. You should check out his whole site because the last several posts cover multiple facets of the market from a trader/momentum perspective.”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fly-out-2014-4#ixzz302waPEIY
I couldn’t agree more with the comments made by both Trading Nymph and Zombie!
It really goes to show you that when someone appears to be down and out, there is no shortage of jerks out there who actually get a high from trying to bash them down even more! I sincerely feel bad about all the negative comments coming from so many people hiding behind the anonymity of the internets.
I have traded alongside the Fly many times and have been rewarded on many occasions over the past several years. I don’t always agree with all his picks but he has always presented many great ideas that deserve attention.
I have never come across anyone on the internet in the investment world that I admire and respect more for his honesty.
I can’t wait for you to make your comeback Fly and to get all these MF’s to shut the fuck up!
Cheers!
Just saw this. I’m all over those fuckers.
It’s good to see Fly recognized. I have been around since the early days and no one does it better on the Internets.
I got murdered in 2008, down almost 30%
If I’d just quit then, I would have missed out on getting back 6x that loss in 2009/2010 which mostly paid for my early retirement
It’s how you deal with defeat not success that defines a winner…
Blah blah blah…this is einhorn and I just made a bundle shorting cool kids silicon valley stock. Now, when I walk around silicon valley, its a bit quieting..not some 20yrs old kids whining about that he only gets 4-5 millions from SPLK or FEYE or IMPV…
Einhorn
Wouldn’t the proper vernacular be ‘meated loaf’?
Some of us caught the four horsemen blades based on your exuberant endorsements. Likewise, we, with bloodied fingers, were dismayed to hear within weeks the same names were overhyped money losers that were going to single digits and watched the hoorays from the peanut gallery for your capitulation. As a PPT subscriber and a fan, I am confused. Please, do share the plan.
Db strings
I think I’ve been as transparent as can be.
I try to help and always have an open door for a ppt member, but it’s not a newsletter. It’s an investment tool.
I do not charge for my advice here and win or lose offer it for free
Your pitch for the PPT says “See Fly’s Picks in Real Time” or something to that effect
That is bullshit, projecting moves in real time is commendable, but you don’t put any size, or actual metric that allows for scorekeeping.
And don’t claim you don’t want scorekeeping and also hold onto this notion of “I am transparent, because I say what I made”
No one here knows what percent of your port were the various horseman, what amount was allocated to buys on the way down, etc etc
Don
I stated the percentages here.
Way after the fact and post hoc
Way after what fact?
You disn’t say any percentages as you go, so say it after the fact.
Example: DATA. The post when you bought it says you started a position in it, something along those lines.
What does that actually mean?
Again don, I’ve stated size. I don’t do it all the time because frankly I don’t have to.
I know you don’t have to.
Just don’t claim you are doing something that you are not.
Don
You are a very difficult person
You don’t post size because if this whole scam was revealed, it would be absolutely pathetic to see the numbers involved.
Goose
How would you have me respond to that? How would you respond? So I am a fraud, because…
Go
Its all ANGI fault, she will pay dearly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVBZNMRTLTA
Why don’t you throw Adsense ads up on here? If your traffics what I’d think you could be making nice cash flow from that. And no I don’t work for Google, I’m a humble blogger…..
So maybe I can finally see that Stupid AA at 11.90 which it deserved after earnings. I am so tired of reading these conf calls and seeing all the One Off charges they are using to hide their crummy results. You know what the irony is, after seeing this bubble form in April of 2009 (when the BDI spiked up with China Govt buying up copper in massive amounts), When it is clear the bubble is finally popping, So many Pros are going to come out and say “I told you so”. But I will remember this moment, (if this is the top) so many pros are not talking about it and there is a strange need for people to gloat over others taking a loss (maybe because they feel so superior cuz they made a profit in this bubble and think it is because they truly understand all of this?, Anyone going long in a Bubble makes money, being smart isn’t important.). Investor vs Trader is Bullshit. Since 1982ish it appears there is only Bubble Forming Time and Bubble Bursting Time. When I read San Fran FOMC Member Williams talk about the fact we are not in a bubble , I realize the lesson that very few really can see bubbles, let alone being able to watch them form. But for this Nymph, I know, in the end, there is only one true rule in this game, BUBBLES ALWAYS Burst.,,and we will always reform another one once it does. FLY LOVE YOUR SHOUT OUT AT BIZ INSIDER. You are the best, but you know that….yum, Veggie Meatloaf. Stupid Bubble.
SHIT!! to think I bought AA at the lows about 5.50 KILLS ME!! I could have had a double
Sloop, You can have your chance again to buy at 5.50.
It’s a bull market … next major correction (Primary Wave IV) as soon as Primary Wave III ends later this year … Here’s a wave update for those interested …
“The current pullback should be Minor wave 2 of Int. wave iii. When it concludes the market should reach all time new highs during a Minor wave 3, and the uptrend should be confirmed. However, when taking into consideration the NDX/NAZ count, (two more uptrends to complete Primary III), and the seasonality characteristics of this bull market, (sideways to down in the spring), we can not totally rule out a diagonal Major wave 5 forming in the SPX too. We will see how this unfolds in the months ahead. Medium term support at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots.”
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/04/26/weekend-update-445/
So, we could either go to new highs later this year or not, but stated in a much more complex fashion. Highly actionable.
we are going to new highs … if you read the link provided you wouldn’t make such an ignorant comment.
fly, i told to get the HELL OUT when your losses were -20%-ish range as 20% loss is not bad at all.
even 30% is not bad and you can make it back.
trade solid companies like $hd or $dis or $wfc or $qcom etc and you can recoup.
btw, will you care to put dollar amount on how much you ‘invested’/traded and how much you lost with the -32% loss you are noting down?
Fly, I am not blaming you. I am a grown up with 20 years experience investing. I rather empathize having swung through a lot of emotion myself. I don’t fault you for cashing out. It was the smart move. I was surprised at how dramatically your opinion of the horsemen changed. They can be good potential trades gone bad or mistimed, but I felt that going from great growers to overhyped money losers was a pretty big swing in short order. We have all felt suckered by analysts. Some of them try to do their jobs well. Some, it seems play shill for the house account or the institutional clients. I am sure you mean well and I enjoy the site. Last Thursday, felt like the betrayal scene from “Braveheart” riding into battle with FB and AAPL numbers to be ambushed 10 minutes in. I am still reeling from that. So, seriously what is the plan?
Regards and Cheers
I love the horsemen, but no one else does
Or what about all the other years of being up since 2006, transparent here. Is that forgotten too?
Fucked up- yes
Zero credibility: not while I’m alive
Sorry chap, but you have lost credibility. How can you lecture someone about what they may or may not know when you’ve publicly demonstrated
1.) no risk management
2.) throwing good $ after bad
3.) hubris to the point of self immolation
4.) risk management
5.) breaking every rule in the book
Let go of the transparency meme.
You project moves in real time, bravo, but there is nothing transparent about how the sausage is made.
As mentioned above,
“You don’t put any size, or actual metric that allows for scorekeeping.
And don’t claim you don’t want scorekeeping and also hold onto this notion of “I am transparent, because I say what I made”
No one here knows what percent of your port were the various horseman, what amount was allocated to buys on the way down, etc etc”
That info would actual be useful. Saying “I bought X and FB friday” then sometime later saying “I sold” is pathetic is transparency if your goal.
Maybe he will start. Its a bit frustrating not knowing the details of the trade.
I think it would be incredibly valuable, not to audit his claims but to greater allow the claimed “genius at work” to shine.
Everyone knows that the nuts of bolts of the decisions of when/size/risk etc are what’s difficult
I liked the horsemen as well and at some point they will be remarkable buys. I have to remind myself that we ride coattails of big money who drive the market. The trend is your friend until it isn’t
funeral famous,very touching and funny all at the same time. so the eulogy goes…. he wore his heart on his sleeve to help thankless fucks in the stock market,only to get shit flung at him by the very monkeys who he’s tried to help. fucking golden,just golden.
Let’s wrap this up, don. I don’t want to be on this phone all day.
You believe me to lack credibility and that any plan I might have is absurd, since it didn’t take months to plan. Any knowledge about portfolio management that has been learned over the past 20 years doesn’t apply to my skills here, since the nature of my blow up means that I am unable to ever invest again. All past gains mean nothing because , well, it doesn’t. And , lastly, if I am not scanning my acct statements for you to audit, I am hiding secrets. Got it. Now move on
If that’s what you took away from my comments, then I suppose that’s all there is to say.
One shouldn’t have to be in the business of trading for 20 years if he is good at it.
Let alone blogging.
Goose
Ibankcoin js one of my most widely read finance sites in the country. I built it from scratch. I’ve been managing money my whole life and intend to do it until I die.
If you were good, you wouldn’t need to manage anybody’s money but your own.
End. Of. Story.
The only people managing other people’s money are those who can sell to the lemmings who have no clue wtf is going on.
Ridiculous
Goose you talk like a poor man. Just go
Fly, I noticed you’ve replied to a lot of questions related to transparency. Would it be fair to say that only PPT members know exactly how much you invest (how many shares)? For example, when you say you bought FEYE, or doubled down on the name, non-PPT readers don’t know how many shares you own. My point is that you could buy 500 shares and then double down with another 500. -32% of such small trades would not dent a large cash position. Which leads me to another question, when you say -32%, is that total assets or just what’s invested?
Khan
I used to mention the amount of shares back in the old days, but stopped because it risked revealing my identity. I don’t want to talk about this anymore
Fair enough. All the very best, can’t wait to see you win again.
FWIW, this is a highly read site, I’m sure many people know your real identity.
I’ll add though that the desire for privacy is perfectly respectful
Don
Very few do and I’d like to keep it that way. I used to operate under my real identity in a diff genre and received death threats, calls to my house. Lots of crazies
I would love to find out that the different genre is really something like “European Literature” or “Latin American Labor Relations” or something way out there
Telling people your trading size risked revealing your identity? Gimme a fucking break.
I can’t believe people buy into this crap.
Happy to be trading against these fools.
Goose
Of course it does. If I am buying 100,000 shares of a stock that traded 300,000 shares per day, it’d be very easy to track me. Stop thinking with your own pockets
Based on what you own, that’s pretty much never the case.
Ha ha!
Actually, I recall a post in the very early days (Broker A?), which implied that someone had somehow knew your exact positions – to which, though shocked, you still had a suitably hilarious response.
Personally, I have no need to know who The Fly really is, how big his line is or whether his trades are fictitious! Common sense tells me his clients wouldn’t be too amused to learn about his ‘playful’ sideline. The insite his blog provides is more than enought!
More surprising from all the fly-swats is the reproach that pros should be more vigilant about drawdowns than us retail chaff. Surely, the opposite should be the case? At least for those who have a decent line!
the gathering of the trolls….I liked this site better when I was not lured into reading the comments, kind of like a childish seeking alpha
You can say that I suck and that I lack credibility. I can accept your opinion. However, I will not be called a fraud. I don’t lie about my positions and if I was trying to pull a fast one on you, I could’ve obscured my losses long ago
Well, the credibility issue a personal opinion based on the perception that you have created for yourself.
That you are occasionally glib, “know everything”, impulsive, and that the actual research into your ideas is hurried at best.
But about the other stuff, no one is saying that, you are clear about what you are doing wrt this position or that. That is commendable.
That said, many dispute the accountability because it’s self-reported and devoid of the actual details that make trading hard.
Like I got long FB. Ok how much size? How am I adding? 1k shares a day for two weeks until I have 10k position? Or just all at once? Etc etc etc etc.
Those are the real questions, not just simply “started a position in FB”
And again, the purpose wouldn’t be to audit you though some surely would, it would be to actually show the skill involved in such an endeavor
All you need to know is that I bought xyz at 30 and then sold it at 36. I am not your advisor. That’s where I draw the line. I do not sell my services here
And the true reason why I blog and do it often is because I love to write.
And it shows. Excellent writing. Smooth as mayonnaise.
This is like cockroach infestation here lol somebody call exterminator please.
I am not sure why you are responding to all this crap, if that as me I would block every single ass 🙂 after all I have almost 6K blocked noise making cockroaches on ST, block feature is a wonderful thing – they are nothing, let them be what they really are – nothing..
Morons, he doesn’t owe you anything – transparency, ideas, trades, size, advise, expertise…. you don’t need to be here, you don’t have to read this, follow this or argue…. crawl back to that hole you came from.
what the fuck is going on with all the Fly haters ???
Jose
I always told you guy of my enemies. My winshippery kept them at bay all these years. Now that I am down, they are attempting to dance on my grave. Very soon I will zombify myself and eat their brains.
Fly, you are not God, you are Jesus, and so you will rise from the dead !!!
can’t wait to see you prove all the Fly haters wrong again !!!
can’t wait to see you display your winshippery !!!
How fucking hard is it to realize the Fly does sell a real time every detail service? The premium products offered thru IBC are exactly what they claim to be. Honesty is the hallmark of IBC and good luck trying to find it anywhere else.
*not sell. Horrible A game fuck up.
shit, who gave me such a retarded avatar, fuck !!!
Unlike many others, The Fly has no set methodology and certainly no rules for trading that don’t eventually get broken.
There is no way to duplicate The Fly – his greatest strength is what @Dasan calls Idea Velocity, constant stream of new thesis’s and high conviction ideas.
Over the last 6yrs I’ve been reading this, the sheer amount of profitable ideas has been astounding. This blog is not a trading service, take the idea and manage the trade yourself, that’s all there is.
The Fly is full of intolerable hubris and crazy mood swings often but there is no more transparent trader out there, the comments here are simply ridiculous.
I have enjoyed reading The Fly for a while and find it fascinating to see how this trading debacle came about after so many years of success. IMHO, Dr. Brett at TraderFeed is a must read for understanding the psychology of a Trader and his post way back on 6/12/08 seems on the money with regard to this recent trading upset, particularly this paragraph:
“I didn’t necessarily want to be right and make money on the trade, just minimize losses.” So there it is: our trader is trying to avoid loss by averaging down. This is his way of fighting against failure, falling short.
In a subsequent communication, the trader revealed to me, “Each of these bigger losses occurred after a period of very good trading. I didn’t feel cocky, but my actions were. I cannot increase my relative risk tolerance after a period of success.” This is a very good observation. The problem pattern is NOT triggered by a losing trade. It is triggered by success! After a winning period, our trader becomes emotionally attached to winning: he wants to eradicate losses. This has him resisting taking normal losses at his stop points and instead averaging down to minimize the loss. It’s not that he’s trying for a home run trade: he doesn’t want to stop winning.
So there’s the trap. Once the trader hits a winning streak, he wants to keep winning. This makes even normal losses feel threatening. So what can he do?
Check out Dr. Brett’s work, perhaps it holds clues to your next success?
Some good points. I think Mean Reversion is what sums up the best. One good trader can win big but would lead to losing big as well at times; on the other hand, another good trader would win small and lose small most of the time. Conceivably both trades can average to the same exact returns over time.
common ‘son – even when the fly is loosing, he’s winning
I view iBC as a modern day trading floor. Especially the user notes in the PPT.
Anyone that is going to come here are hate troll Le Fly is a toolbox and nothing else. You take shots when in fact nobody knows who you are and you have no track record. Where as Le Fly has a long prodigious track record on the Internets.
I am no home trader. I am a professional who runs money and iBC is more reputable and realistic than anything on the Internets. The products they provide are what they say there. Tools for YOU to make decisions.
Magicians don’t sell their secrets (if they work).
There is no reason to do so unless you can’t make enough money on your own.
Magicians?
Enough money?
We have a lost kid 🙁
Not in the business if becoming rich
Then they asked Rothschild how much is enough money.. his answer was: ‘ a little bit more’..
“You take shots when in fact nobody knows who you are and you have no track record”
This actually does describe the Fly to many, albeit inadvertently.
The thing with the track record is that yes he has 7 years of blogging ideas in real time. That counts for something absolutely. Let’s not take that away from him.
However, as an investment professional yourself, there is NO WAY that if someone stepped in your office on a job offer to PM that you would accept that bullshit as credentials or indicative of success alone on the merits.
Just curious why a couple of gentlemen here would love to know Fly size?
This is becoming a serious obsession of yours I see..
Fly’s size is ~25m, which is smaller than small in the world of finance.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that, before we get into some e-penis measuring contest.
http://oi60.tinypic.com/2gwcr5y.jpg
says lost 1.5m on a down 6% day = 25m AUM
I am sorry for the confusion Don, I thought you interested in his penis size.. Why would you want to know his account size? Planning to marry him, he is already married dear.
You character changed a lot in the past few months.. is it only online persona change or have you changed in your real life?
I want the mean Gary guy to be around Monday. The momo tech stocks were ironically the horsemen, but I think we have a little higher to go, IMO. (Not for MOMO though, at least probably so.)
I am not a ppt member, but i love this site..FLY is one of best trader out there.. Been following him for almost 5 years!!
I don’t know his history, but I’m assuming not everyone here is full of shit. I’m not so impressed with doing well Mar 2009 – Present, but if the 2008-Mar 2009 stuff is true and if he’s done blinding himself from Fed money flying in his face for 5 years, he probably does know how to play a volatile market pretty well and should shit on Gary daily. 😛
With that logic we’d all starve because farmers would only make food for themselves
Lol who are you replying to?
Glad you are back. I depend on this site. This is my social life.
You guys are naive if you think you never can lose 30%
Fly said it. IF he was trying to pull one over on you why wouldn’t he pull a Gartman and tell everyone he’s long the 4 horsemen in Rubles.
For fuck sake, he slipped and did a major face plant. He manned up called what it ism and he’ll be back. And when he does he rip your heads off and shit down your necks.
Original Don, you talk a good game, where are your stats, or any record thereof?
Shit, now i look like ALF !!
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In The Land Of The Blind … The One Eyed Man Is King !
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Fund managers take on monumental risk that no retail account with serious money should ever replicate. Just check the monthly returns of any big fund. I’m reminded of Hawksbill’s futures fund, http://bit.ly/9U2SaQ, who had their worst drawdown (62%) in their 4th year (1991) following a blockbuster year where they’d made 252%!
The only manager I knew who could trade without drawdowns was Madoff.
As retail, I always reduce size so as to never reach 33% – at which point I will have to throw in the towel. For good.
But if I managed money, I would certainly take on more risk – and probably only finally close shop at a 50% drawdown!
Stocks are like golf. Nobody owns the game. No matter how good you are at it, some days things are just going to fuck up.
Hey Fly, about disclosing the size of your trades, maybe that’s something you should consider inside the PPT only, not in $ amount but in 1/10th parts, quarters, or whatever blocks you use, just so you can give your subscribers some edge, and also keep your privacy.
I’ve been in and out of PPT, now back in, mostly to have access to you trades real time as well as to the PPT signals. However, all your trades are announced in the blog a few minutes later, and the oversold PPT signals are publicly displayed at the end of the day. That makes it hard to justify the paid subscription.
Bruno, after you bought it, then the rest of us pile in, which would drive up the price and your share, I think this totally justify the paid subscription, NO ???
Fly…I don’t how you put up with these rude people? I have had conversations with you about my beliefs in God which you disagreed, but you still treated me with respect. The respect in trading should also apply here but people want to pound you for a loss. I lost half of my account 16 months ago only to make it all back plus some in the last 7 months. You will be ok and I wish you all the best! Stay strong and disregard all the negative comments. You have a lot of good people pulling for you!
goose, give me the link to your website …
Fly,awesome place to see social dynamics and trading acumen.cannot believe the vitriol.people don’t have to follow you in and probably should not from the blog.for me a humorous, sometimes fall on the floor hilarious site like this essential to keep my trading sanity.Can’t wait to see the next move.Make sure you maintain your anonymity from the fuckheads.
Bruno
I only started sharing ppt signals here lately due to bad market. I will not do that anymore
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… the thing is NONE … NONE of the bloggers on the site post the “SIZE” of any trade they write about in their blog posts ! (correct me if I’m wrong)
I don’t see anyone ranting and raving, demanding “transparency” and posting personal attacks directed at them … nor should they be !
You don’t see Adami, Terranova, Grasso, the Najarians etc …etc … on the teevee spillin’ their guts about share size and position size !
Not really sure why some here expect MORE of “Fly” !!!
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Seems MORE than unrealistic !!!
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Alf
They see something in me that they wished they had, save the -32% for the year of course
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… it’s like some crazy misguided “birther movement” … gone horribly awry !!!
SHOW US A VALID MONTHLY BROKERAGE STATEMENT !!!
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BTW, you DO have a U.S. Birth Certificate don’t you ?
Never mind !
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How about we will disclose our account size first …
I think mine is between 32-33K, is that too small ???
Fly, Why are you even explaining yourself to these douchebags? You’re history as a gentleman is above all this dreck.
No wonder I crush this market. The comments in this section show the appitude of the deformed apes I’m betting against. Fly – c’mon 30% drawdown ain’t a death spiral. These comments are a joke – I see a lot of pansy over reactions from people who obviously only use their lunch money to trade.
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… ah hem … I’m afraid we’re gonna need you to go ahead and …
SHOW US A VALID MONTHLY BROKERAGE STATEMENT !!!
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Thank you in advance !
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Claw, what is your account size ???
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Claw … boxers or briefs ?
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Rest my case. Like I’m going to post a statement here – where some weirdo with a one eye avatar will probably track me down and try and bum me.
Jose – my account size is bigger than the national savings of what ever backwater Latino country shithole you’re from.
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… lighten up, “claw” … It was a fuckin’ joke !
Get yourself a sense of humor, pal !
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Alf, I think Claw goes commando …
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… not goin’ near that line !
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That is the idea of going commando, there will be no tan line …
You defentely bite the pillow Jose. I suppose you’ve moved to Cali where you can marry Big Bubba!
I have commented here more in the last week than…well, ever. I feel bad for you Fly. I just wanted to vent a little. Nothing personal as I was just shell shocked from a really bad week to be long. I just wanted to feel a little encouragement and maybe get a little glimmer of hope that the worst us over and the shit storm does not spread to the broader market.. I note you have been on here most of the day fielding questions and taking a lot of abuse. The PPT is an excellent tool. Your site is quite entertaining. The market will turn. Sentiment is very fickle and fleeting and can turn on a dime when the big money has loaded up and begins to cover. Despite the online persona bravado, I sense that you are a decent guy. Hang in there. The trolls will always be at the gates with pitchforks.
Death threats! I blog about the Mafia — I get em all the time! I also have in my cellphone some Feds’ home phone numbers. They hit you like lemmings fly. I’m broke don’t know WTF I’m even doing here!