Quantitative Fatigue

It appears the euphoria, post QE3 announcement, is over. Too many people went long, thinking it was straight up without pause. I do believe the market has 20% higher from here, a bull market of sorts for another 6 months. However, there will be set-backs, tricks along the way.

Some of you might view this weakness as a opening salvo into what might become an “October surprise”, whereby the markets plunge despite government intervention. Being a pragmatic man of reason and justice, I am open to all ideas, good and bad. But if there’s one thing we’ve been taught over and over again, no matter how much we may want to believe “this time is different,” asset prices will be propped up–by hook or crook.

Having said that, I detected some cynicism in the tape yesterday, which is why I sold my largest position, MCK, and a top 5 holding, AKS. Although I did buy some OSG, crazy for boats and such, my cash levels have been tripled to nearly 25%. Even with all that cash, I’m still giving back some serious coin this morning.

Remember boys and girls: losses are part of the process. For all I know, we may be in for a 1 month malaise, a seasonal beat down for the ages.

Nevertheless, my only conviction lies in the untenable fact that the Fed is going to increase money supply, denigrate the dollar, and, ultimately, make stocks go higher–emphasis on “make.”

NOTE: A fascinating story that has played out for more than 10 years with SCMR is over. SCMR is one of the few survivors of the dot com crash, having been lucky enough to price a secondary just before the crash; they were buoyed with over a billion dollars in cash for over a decade. Well, they just gave it back to shareholders with a special $10 divvy. Bravo.