It appears the euphoria, post QE3 announcement, is over. Too many people went long, thinking it was straight up without pause. I do believe the market has 20% higher from here, a bull market of sorts for another 6 months. However, there will be set-backs, tricks along the way.
Some of you might view this weakness as a opening salvo into what might become an “October surprise”, whereby the markets plunge despite government intervention. Being a pragmatic man of reason and justice, I am open to all ideas, good and bad. But if there’s one thing we’ve been taught over and over again, no matter how much we may want to believe “this time is different,” asset prices will be propped up–by hook or crook.
Having said that, I detected some cynicism in the tape yesterday, which is why I sold my largest position, MCK, and a top 5 holding, AKS. Although I did buy some OSG, crazy for boats and such, my cash levels have been tripled to nearly 25%. Even with all that cash, I’m still giving back some serious coin this morning.
Remember boys and girls: losses are part of the process. For all I know, we may be in for a 1 month malaise, a seasonal beat down for the ages.
Nevertheless, my only conviction lies in the untenable fact that the Fed is going to increase money supply, denigrate the dollar, and, ultimately, make stocks go higher–emphasis on “make.”
NOTE: A fascinating story that has played out for more than 10 years with SCMR is over. SCMR is one of the few survivors of the dot com crash, having been lucky enough to price a secondary just before the crash; they were buoyed with over a billion dollars in cash for over a decade. Well, they just gave it back to shareholders with a special $10 divvy. Bravo.
26 Responses to Quantitative Fatigue
Will you consider doubling down on DDD or OSG?
“tricks along the way” – that is ALWAYS how the street works, no? After all, who would’ve thought Gold would basically just pause here? If it’s obvious, it’s usually wrong. Nevertheless I am of the opinion that eventually reality wins. I followed you into SVU and OSG with hope for hi beta stx should we go higher…
DDD is almost at a decision point for me. And OSG is brand new, so no opinion yet.
What about PPC, have you considered cutting losses on these
No way will I sell PPC. Q1 of 2013 will be nirvana for chicken companies.
I am “The Chicken Man”
Obama is letting the tape sink a bit .. he knows how to pace himself to victory
As crazy as this sounds, it’s probably the truth.
Dude is God!
The real question to ask yourselves is how far are the Republicans willing to take the Fiscal Cliff situation? Romney trailing in the poles tells me they will take it as far as they can. Remember the debt ceiling debacle and subsequent credit downgrade? Why would you remain net long in front of it?
That’s polls. I think the poles actually like him.
- only the ‘non-crack-dealing-rapper’ ones…
With the debt ceiling fiasco, gold went parabolic. Gold and miners could be a good way to be long either way.
Fly, nice call on NAK by the way.
Hey DMG what do you think of the BREAKING NEWS feature I just added over on the V.Kingdom Blog??
VKing, I salute your efforts.
Rigged, there are men speaking here. Please take juice, tea house and the rest of the women and children and get back in the kitchen.
Yeah. The “Competitive Enterprise Institue” = export our jobs and make the rich richer.
If business would pay fair wages, provide a clean and safe working environment, not pollute our environment, and provide safe an useful products- they would not NEED regulations.
My solution to environmental regulation:
One simple law. The plant stack gases shall vented directly into the CEO and Plant Manager’s offices; and these two individuals must drink 12 ounces of plant liquid effluent every day.
rigged get back on the sewing machine…no more smoke breaks for you…
An IMPORTANT video on the truth of the mainstream media:
In my opinio it seems like OSG and SVU are in a battle between large short positions and longs and depending on who breaks first…
Today is a buying opportunity. Buy some $NG and hold it till the end of the year. 50-100%.
Fly, Is $SVU strictly a play on a possible short squeeze?
P is in play…
Listen carefully…the Fly has just given us all a gift to celebrate these glorious times.. SCMR… trading at cash… and giving it back…wow.
SCMR raked in well over $1B on their secondary back on Feb/2000.
Now they are giving back $290M via their special divvy.
Pennies on the dollar, shareholders still got fleeced
They gave back $285M in a special divvy in 2009 ($10per) and $185M in 2010 ($6.50 per)…and with a 29% increase in quarterly revs YOY, at current price at $15 and change, you get to play the bandwidth throttling on mobile networks lottery for pennies per share… that is a gift.