The Bottom is Going to Drop Out

I made over 240% on my TZA July 33 calls today and more than 11% in my GSVC position. I am mostly out of the market now, including WNR. I will close out today +15% with a 85% cash position. In my personal, I am loaded with TZA calls and GSVC. I am still long MWW, if only for one more day. And, I am in no rush to buy this dip.

TLT is rising, alongside UUP. Volatility is on the rise and risk aversion is back, BIG TIME. Unlike the Greek problem, I cannot foresee any short term resolution for Italy or Spain. This is the big one that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Naturally, the market is full of surprises and “they” always find a way to mark up prices. However, the Dow is still at 12,500. If I might be so bold, there is clear and smooth sailing room to 12,000, maybe even lower. This issue will not take a backseat to WORSE THAN EXPECTED Alcoa earnings, which are sure to be revealed after today’s close. If you have learned anything from iBankCoin over the past 4 years it is “The Fly” is always right, even when he appears to purport exact falsehoods. I want you to understand what is at stake, prior to delving into dips, like some sort of doped up monkey playing an accordion in Brazil.

My winship is about to get largess. Wait and see.

I rolled over my TZA 33 calls to August and started a new position in EDZ. And, I bought another 25,000 shares of GSVC.

In an effort to lure some of you into permanent banning, I’ve enacted the following rules.

1. PPT OVERSOLD flags may no longer be shared on iBC, unless granted permission.

2. PPT OVERBOUGHT scores may no longer be shared on iBC, unless granted permission.

Out of respect for the hundreds of paying members, these valuable signals will no longer be shared on iBC, until after the fact. I hope you understand there is no such thing as free lunches, particularly when it pertains to sublime harmony of mathematical precision (SHOMP).

A final look for some of you cellar dwelling internet leeches.

On a side note: GSVC, bitches.

Poof! Your bullshit market rally is over.

-Merlin

Clearing the shelves. Going to 85% cash.

I am trimming my WNR position, full disclosure. Right now, I am heavily long WNR, AXU and MWW. That’s about it, aside from the myriad of other stocks in my portfolios. I am mostly cash, chilling, while your blood is inexplicably spilling.

Spanish, Portuguese and Italian bond yields are blowing out. However, the market is manipulated. The only trade, as of now, is cash. As an aside, I am also emphatic about GSVC, such a small float, such a great story. The current valuation of GSVC indicates their portfolio of privately held companies is only worth 55 million. They raised 50 million. Do you mean to tell me the private internet market is dead? PFFFFFFFFFFF.

GSVC trades up from here.

Additionally, I still like ULTA, DECK, DVR and PFCB. I own all of these stocks and will not sell them until the shadows near my favorite urinal give me the nod. You must understand, I am never scared. Volatility is my friend and I yearn for market losses, so that I can make it all back and more. However, I am opting to remove myself from the fire, due to the severity of the situation. The worst case scenario is a full blown market calamity. Instead of playing with all of my chips, I am fucking around with a handful, while the lion-share of my assets are in the safe.

Let’s be clear about Italy. Their debt is 120% of GDP, but owned domestically. They are not like Greece, but then again, who is? However, I want you to notice a pattern here. The bond vigilantes are not going to stop until they kill someone. They tried Ireland: didn’t work. They took a shot with Greece: close but no cigar. Cleverly, instead of going after Portugal, they went after a large EU country, in the hopes of overwhelming the IMF/ECB.The result, thus far, is a spiraling Italian stock market and rising Italian yields. Being a trader in Italy must feel like someone is throwing meatballs at you all day long. Fucking ridiculous.

To make matters worse, Italy is now demanding short sellers who own more than 0.2% of a companies market cap file papers. With every 0.1% increase in short sale representation, you have to file more papers (office space, TPS reports style). In other words, they are getting desperate. In my experience, when agencies start going after short sellers, they are scared that the truth will cut their dicks off. For me, this is a no brainer trade: stay the fuck out.

This doesn’t end with Italy. It ends with us in a pineapple coffin.

Right now, I am 65% cash and 20% of my 35% equity exposure is in WNR. I am all WNR, basically. I am not buying into this shit storm and strongly advise many of you ham and eggers out there sit this one out.

GSVC is the next CMGI of this generation of degenerate internet stocks. With 3 million shares in the float, and a high profile investment in Facebook, as well as others sure to come, I can see this stock raping clowns for months.

Granted, the valuation is a bit whacky. But, you cannot assign traditional valuations to something that cannot be replicated. This is the best way, in my opinion, to play the burgeoning IPO market. Don’t be surprised if the stock goes to $10 or $50. Just know and understand, as this story gets out, people will be trading the shit out of this stock, for better or for worse.

So you know, I took a position in the stock today and feel it trades much higher than today’s price.

I sold out of my ERY hedge. I am seeing a lot of strength building throughout the day. I much rather be cautious in cash, then in a losing position. Also, I just bought both ULTA and DECK. I am in DECK for the $100 roll, nothing more.

WNR continues to defy gravity. It may be time to take a look at other refiners. Spreads are so wide even an imbecilic moron can bank coin in the refinery business. I like ALJ, CVI, HFC and DK.

The banks are for shit. I sold out of ETFC.

I am up more than 15% for the year with nearly 60% cash. My main concern now is growing my gains without having to chase stocks. Should we get another down day or two, I will be actively shopping. So you know, the new PPT algo in development is spitting out hundreds of OVERSOLD names today. And, it is flagging OVERBOUGHT on some inverse ETF’s, like DRV and DPK. This makes me want to sit on the sidelines, instead of trying to play “Roubini the Great Guru” with assaholic short positions.

In true manic depressive fashion, I bought both ERY and GSVC.

NOTE: GSVC is the only publicly traded company, aside from GS, with an equity stake in Facebook. It comprises more than 15% of its portfolio.