I made over 240% on my TZA July 33 calls today and more than 11% in my GSVC position. I am mostly out of the market now, including WNR. I will close out today +15% with a 85% cash position. In my personal, I am loaded with TZA calls and GSVC. I am still long MWW, if only for one more day. And, I am in no rush to buy this dip.
TLT is rising, alongside UUP. Volatility is on the rise and risk aversion is back, BIG TIME. Unlike the Greek problem, I cannot foresee any short term resolution for Italy or Spain. This is the big one that shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Naturally, the market is full of surprises and “they” always find a way to mark up prices. However, the Dow is still at 12,500. If I might be so bold, there is clear and smooth sailing room to 12,000, maybe even lower. This issue will not take a backseat to WORSE THAN EXPECTED Alcoa earnings, which are sure to be revealed after today’s close. If you have learned anything from iBankCoin over the past 4 years it is “The Fly” is always right, even when he appears to purport exact falsehoods. I want you to understand what is at stake, prior to delving into dips, like some sort of doped up monkey playing an accordion in Brazil.
My winship is about to get largess. Wait and see.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWQhQtPIC9Q 616 500]
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Always first
AXU?
sold
Permit me to say again…
CRUDE TO FUCKING $60
You might want to stop and check with Hugo and the Ayatollah on that insane target.
Iran, Venezuela, and their 4 other allies now run Opec. Oil isn’t printing in the 70’s anytime soon, let alone 60.
I said , wednesday of last week, I was only looking for a 2% pullback or so in the QQQ . Unless UGA gas prices go surging upwards, and barbarians retake italy, this could be the end of the pullback.
But, I still suspect we MAY get a surprise surge in oil above 130 next in 5 months. Then, even anticipation of Romney wouldn’t save the Dow.
OPEC has control of production targets (when they aren’t cheating their own quotas), not price.
Problem is, right now, Syria , Yemen, and Bahrain are all on fire
And all seem to be adding more political capital and allies to the Iranian side.
The Israelis can barely hold their checkpoints down, and The Saudi’s are getting afraid of outright revolution. The republicans and dems in the Us lack the political capital to push sanctions, or come close to threatening military action on Iran,Venezuela , etc.
In short, we are on the ropes, and on the verge of losing most of the mideast. Im not sure Oil has priced this in properly
I’m never completely out of oil exposure for that reason. Even if I feel very sure that its price movement is down.
Then up to $160 as the USofA Dollar becomes nearly worthless.
I trade crude oil futures every single day and I doubt it. Even today, crude wasn’t that weak given the massacre in equities.
No VXX position?
Nice music pick. I’ve been digging the album. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDTZ7iX4vTQ
““The Fly” is always right, even when he appears to purport exact falsehoods.”
Lol. So treu.
Fly skirted/averted Flydämmerung and sluffed off to someone else the old maids he was holding to end the game with a winning hand. took his doses of flack commentary well too. kudos.
CLNE moving
how can u give a thumbs down to a statement that is just fact and no opinion?
lol
Cash and gold until we get the washout?
Silver and Gold.
Silver looked like shit today trading like a commodity while gold traded like a safe haven/currency.
i think someone said that last week..
I just gave u a thumbs down on that….can’t help myself its too funny.
Lol.. Just piling on.
didnt hear bad on the cc from aa
Picked up some EPV this morning.
I wish Fly would tell us why he’s so bearish all of a sudden. As the market sold off starting with the death of OBL, he stayed bullish, and now all of a sudden, the end of the world is here.
Sorry, but I don’t get it.
He just said
“TLT is rising, alongside UUP. Volatility is on the rise and risk aversion is back, BIG TIME. Unlike the Greek problem, I cannot foresee any short term resolution for Italy or Spain. This is the big one that shouldn’t be taken lightly.”
YOU DON’T NEED TO GET IT. JUST OBSERVE.
90% cash today. this isnt good
Like a eunuch in the sack, Alcoa always disappoints.
aa beats by a penny, sells off, aa misses by a penny sells off,,,
its a game of spades. you guess your books right, you win even if you do poorly. if not, you may lose even if you do well.
ive been waiting for dis
Does “the bottom is going to drop out” mean FAS near the close was a bad idea?
Bullish! You`re always Bullish! What do you think?
Is the bottom about to drop out?
.
I think I will bank some coin. That’s what I think! Buy the dips – sell the rips. This is a meat grinder people.
Going with the ChessNWine scenario here
So what does that bring you to YTD?
ITALY, talk about a boot in the ass…just sayin
Mssr Fly,
Why sell all of your WNR on the b/o of that 5 month channel? Isn’t holding 25-50% of it a prudent move?
Reappearance of Merlin… cashing out on WNR… “bottoms dropping out”… i think i just shat my pants.
I don’t want to be missing the run like 2008… Fly, you just got a new subscriber to the PPT and 12631.
Extremely bullish one week to extremely bearish the next week. This is why this blog is only good for entertainment value. I’ll continue to listen Chessnwine’s analysis and ignore this noise.
the mkt changes every second, so should u,,,
your being biased.
Is Chess being biased as well?
no he’s not. shedder, RC,goldfinger, AB,mr.thaler,scotty,what are they, chopped liver. the noise you hear is that of rain drops,by the rain maker………..THE FLY
One word: INTERBANK.
This is a fucking nightmare that is too big to be bailed.
This one could take down the whole system.
The Fly is right. Watch the fuck out. Great fucking day for the shorts and being long USD.
1.5 quadrillion in derivatives. The banks are fixing to BUY up Europe…. that’s the bailout.
Tomorrow is another day. I predict we open higher and then slowly drip lower as the day progresses. Yes, Fly is right about the market being in trouble. I, however, don’t believe a major crash is imminent.
We should revisit the lows of 2 weeks ago sometime over the next month, and maybe even go a bit lower. Not a reason to panic though. The real trouble won’t start till this fall, if it’s going to happen this year.
” I predict we open higher” doesn’t seem to be true…
ROFL, what was that on Fast Money. Some dude talking about the speed of light and HFT. He pretty much had a Jeff Macke moment.
“My winship is about to get largess” ?!? That doesn’t even mean anything!
But, hey, “it’s the big one” I can understand. The only problem is that the time needed for Spain and Italy to collapse exceeds the maximum duration of any Fly (or wall street) trading outlook – by a factor of 30 or 40…
Hence, I conclude that Fly will be buying -when Boehner and Obama shake hands – while appearing to be purporting to be portending that euro-people are just silly and Italy hasn’t mattered since Rome fell. Just wait.
I put the over under on +/- 5 years.
It would be MUCH shorter, but the devaluation of the dollar will probably help the Euro
Once again the music has started, and it’s time to do the “Hugh”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-io-kZKl_BI
(for those unfamiliar with how to “do” the “Hugh”)
LIAR! This is the REAL Hugh Hendry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iz1FsGSjgy8
thanks for the ppt fly.your uncanny-ness for recognizing calamity of the highest order is alien phenom.
Yaaawn.
Let me guess, more austerity and more bailouts…BTFD.
The Fly’s pun suggests you have too few chips and not enough dip.
My winship is about to get largess (sic).
But, but, but…. “largesse” is a NOUN!
____________
its hard to be heavily bearish after today’s move in europe
Look at charts of EWI VGK STD EWP EWG DB AIB NBG UBS EWG IXG CS
If they simply stabilize, the EURUSD should find support. Alot of parabolic panic moves in the euro space right now. Aren’t they likely to have at least a dead cat bounce, before the next downleg?
Does anyone follow Peter Yastrow’s blog. always interesting stuff….
http://www.peteryastrow.com/
tks
TVIX BABY!!!!! VXX CALLS BABY!!!! CHA CHING!!!
Have they trotted out Dr. Doom yet? How about Modius and Hugh?
Not the end of the world peoplez. Get ready to buy the dip. Fly has an eye for the market action, and I think he has this one pegged right.
-Tom
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWutAX3CQcE&feature=autoplay&list=PL40B2F4B93BD7DF64&index=9&playnext=2
Tom is right, this is not the end of the world yet. It is one more step toward that end, however. There will be an end to this madness, and when it nears, everyone will know it is coming. The entire situation will look very similar to 2008. The big difference is that this time it will not be private banks going belly up, but entire countries and their currencies. As with 2008, the smaller, less capable entities go down first. Everyone will claim that there are no problems in the rest of the world, and then as Fall nears, reality will rear its ugly head.
I believe now is the time to start raising your investment in gold, from 10% to 20%.
In 2008, gold went down due to massive deflation. This time, it will be the opposite.
You are dropping out, and shilling a $60m market cap company cuz they GOT Facebook shares? WTF? Total societal meltdown is here.
Hyping a $60m market cap and bragging about it…………………
Let us know if your hype moves it to $80m………….developing
u make a good point, however if u look at this bs mkt you will see that jva also defied gravity, and clne and gene, so what r u sayin.. the world is over? except for pump n dump?
My hype? Excuse me but it fits my risk profile perfectly, as I am in a position to speculate. I am 85% cash and up 15% for the year. This is a shot. Don’t ever speak to the man in the space capsule like that again, else you’re a goner.
Gsvc will announce new deals and blow your head off.
Dr. Fly,
Can of Whoop Ass confronts you with a challenge of one can of whoop ass: winner of 1-stock, $250-million market cap, for 3-months? Are you on – or do you play on your rules only? Bring it….I think you are a fraud who can take pictures of man’s watches…..
….developing….
Don’t bring a paper football to a street cannon fight.
Shut up about GSVC too. Their management is not fucking around.
You’re an idiot.
Do any hardcore republicans really believe we shouldn’t increase the debt ceiling? If so, will you be willing to take your own garbage to the landfill site?
Heck YA! When I was a pup, we used to have a blast(pun intended) taking the weekly garbage to the township dump. The place was infested with rats, mice, skunks and vermin of every sort. All of which needed desperately to be shot. Of course, we obliged in the most egregious fashion possible given the meager supplies our limited ammo budget could conjure up. 300-400 rounds was considered an average evenings work.
Not an American,
Still…. Fuck Yes!
If you can’t afford something (garbage men) you shouldn’t buy them.
Where do you go for a hedge against the downward spiral?
Physical precious metal, arable land, production capacity of useful things.
try $sds
Fly,
You said you don’t envision any resolution to the Italy problem. Wouldn’t the resolution come in the form of QEuroTrash? Everyone else has been monetizing like a mother fucker. Wouldn’t a coordinated QE3/European QE sufficiently kick the Italian boot down the road?
Also, what are your thoughts on Alcoa’s earnings?
Everybody is against spending on government programs– except the ones that they themselves benefit from. That’s why Tea Party candidates seem to always turn out to have received a million dollars in farms subsidies or some other form of government handouts. Practicing what one preaches is not something that is done politically in this country.