Let’s be clear about Italy. Their debt is 120% of GDP, but owned domestically. They are not like Greece, but then again, who is? However, I want you to notice a pattern here. The bond vigilantes are not going to stop until they kill someone. They tried Ireland: didn’t work. They took a shot with Greece: close but no cigar. Cleverly, instead of going after Portugal, they went after a large EU country, in the hopes of overwhelming the IMF/ECB.The result, thus far, is a spiraling Italian stock market and rising Italian yields. Being a trader in Italy must feel like someone is throwing meatballs at you all day long. Fucking ridiculous.
To make matters worse, Italy is now demanding short sellers who own more than 0.2% of a companies market cap file papers. With every 0.1% increase in short sale representation, you have to file more papers (office space, TPS reports style). In other words, they are getting desperate. In my experience, when agencies start going after short sellers, they are scared that the truth will cut their dicks off. For me, this is a no brainer trade: stay the fuck out.
This doesn’t end with Italy. It ends with us in a pineapple coffin.
Right now, I am 65% cash and 20% of my 35% equity exposure is in WNR. I am all WNR, basically. I am not buying into this shit storm and strongly advise many of you ham and eggers out there sit this one out.
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WHat about EXK, cochese?
Still room to run, methinks…
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Gold and silver should be ok.
Let me scream this on the highest hilltop:
IT IS GEORGE SOROS.
He has spent millions trying to “influence” power and shape opinion. I’m NOT channelling Glen Beck when I say that everything he has said or done–and everything that he will do in the near-term future–is designed to CRASH THE EURO. So far the fundamentals have belied his position as the EURO has mostly risen and he has–at times–sounded desperate with his public “Jawboning”.
Make no mistake, he and his minions are working feverishly to make the Euro a “Terminal Short”.
Good, the Euro sucks,it is only strong because China and other Asia and Middle East Players have been bailing them out. Which reminds me, all those they said China was having such a soft landing, did you see the CPI data…food prices are killing them. This whole thing is a mess caused by the Clam and the other global leaders…I with George on the short euro bandwagon. Hey US Dollar should finally take out the 76 handle this week I bet. IMHO Strong US Dollar is actually healthy for us.
“I am with George”…wish we had a edit button in these post.
did you see that local chinese bond auction go bad?
YES, I did see their 3 year tonight. Which BTW, a lot of this is to raise money for that “Low Cost Housing” that they are planning to build. Central Govt ala 2009/2010 was handing out money like crazy. Now, central Govt annouces plans to build all these new homes for the poor…but says, screw you, you local Govts have to raise the cash for the project. Also, did you see them hinting around that they are going to be cutting stimulus spending in High Speed rails, solar, etc last week. China has such a corruption problem, esp at the local Govt…way to many bad loans to them.
I’m new to this George Soros game. Can you give me a few links to educate myself? Thanks.
nice Scott ; blame the JEW ! 😉
It’s more than Soros. The other hedgies learned the game from Soros. This is a dangerous game. Governments can squash the hedge funds if they are a threat.
No FAZmobiles?
We are on the same side here Fly
The emergency ECB meetings tomorrow remind me of the Lehman weekend where someone had to die. There are talks of letting greek some bonds default as well. I don’t see how they think they can control that process. Have a feeling the market will shove that idea up their ass.
Short the Euro seems like the call here.
This week could be a shit show marketwise.
Fly, will you short or just stay in cash
cash.
Maybe do the Hugh, via TLT.
Thanks for the heads up Master Fly.
The ultimate goal of the bond vigilanties is Germany. If they can get to German CDS’s, how can anything else (corporates/other sovereigns) trade better.
In 2008, the US guaranteed FNM debt, yet CDS’s continued to blow out which really freaked folks out. How could GE (or any other corporate) trade tighter than something that had a US guarantee?
The same thing is playing out in Europe, albeit with slightly different chess pieces. Get to German CDS’s, and its checkmate on the rest of the credit markets.
French CDs have been blowing out too
EUR/USD 1.50.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Timing’s key. AUD, NZD and CHF should all rise in the short term.
I don’t see significant PM increase as this is far from material relative to previous 2011’s events, despite news op..
As mentioned, I’m out of equities but for monthly income trades. E.g. $SLV condor winding down Tuesday to plan.
Coal companies could be an interesting downside give the season and overall bearish slide. Particularly $ACI given lower lows and probable fifth wave down.
ahhh blind Eur/USD at 1.4152 right now.
I become more the contrarian by the day. I’m almost never wrong in Fx. Timing and leverage is always the issue because equities volume is puny compared with Fx quantity.
GBP/USD short is more reliable than EUR/USD. Wait for confirmation though as last week’s USD/CHF long stop[ed out on Jupiter-level gravity suction. Ugh.
Your betting on a strong FOMC. Clam Powers are weak.
GDP, government driven ponsi….
hey fly, did u see the citi report about the wti/brent spread to blow to $40 before next summer? refiners will be good for some time i suppose….
Yes. Report posted in ppt
Saw the Citi sell volume last week, looks like it’s finally playing out.
Stayed away after last two quarters where bank’s / financial’s earnings not reflected in the share price.
Some retorted there were so many “shadow-write-offs”; right, that was so last year or two years ago now. Resets, hybrids, that’s history.
Cash on cash sales are the game. I should know.
It’s all my fault though, I was taught banks were “lenders”, I’ve learned the business sector is a misnomer. Can’t really blame them, then again. I won’t go further into that bramble bush.
stead boys, longs get traped like rats. will be buying as others leave today…greese will default, whos next?
Are you saying that you are not buying anything on today’s pullback?
Nothing
@the fly , the ppt hybrid and all the info inside the ppt are my most valuable source of market intelligence. they hybrid has been very accurate in predicting oversold bottoms . Probably the most important idea is all the different particapants giving views of how they use it, and being challanged by others. this is not some “follow me blindly” newsletter. all of your bloggers offer independant ideas. they do no “tow the party line” on trading style or stocks they trade. this is a very helpful/unselfish bunch.
Anybody could prosper from reading and joining the ppt. but they need to also invest some time to get results. No spoon feeding here. the algorithm is limitless, and the humour is first class.
the sooner you join, the sooner you’ll KNOW.