Fly Buy: CIS

I nibbled at CIS.

I bought both, fully intending to profit from the dollars immediate demise.

I sold out of my TZA position at a tragic loss (personal) in order to clean the slate. Theoretically, I should be buying TZA here. But I needed to sideline my personal aggressive account in order to dedicate my full attention to managed.

On the managed side, things are much better, just 1.25% off annual and all-time highs. I know, had I participated in the current rally, I’d be +30%. Thinking about shit like that pisses me the fuck off, so stop reminding me. Anyway, I sold 50% of my VXX position to clear the air. The current environment doesn’t call for a 10% VXX weighting, while my cash is 55%. Since I am unwilling to buy here, my only option is to reduce downside exposure. In this case, VXX.

I really like silver here, specifically EXK and AG; but they are overbought, just like everything else. Nevertheless, I might buy some silver anyway. Let me think about it.

You don’t buy into +250 days. This market can go 1,000 points higher from here; but I promise you, it’s not going to happen today. There will be pullback and better entry points. Should I buy here and be proven wrong, I will double my fuckery on both ends of the trade. It’s bad enough missing out on “suchness.” I’m not about to Homey the Clown myself into a double ended pinless hand grenade party.

I bet you expected some negative bearshit out of me today. Well, you’re wrong. To throw a wet towel on such a jubilant day is simply sour grapes. There is much to dislike about the EFSF deal and the euro-land economy; but how is that going to make me money today?

Mea culpa: I was not positioned correctly for this rally due to my disbelief in momentum. This was not a surprise. As a matter of fact, the news was out before it was out and the market was running ahead of the news that we already knew. So what is this all about?

Answer: momentum.

Money managers are throwing the kitchen sink at this market in an effort to win back their losses. Apparently, they won. The market is all the way back, AND MORE. Granted, some names, like X, are still deep in the hole. But, generally speaking, any broadly diversified fund made his/her year over the past 3 weeks.

I stand to lose today. The damage will be limited only because of my over-cautious positioning. I was stuck in the amber of extreme negativity to the point that putting on short positions made no sense to me. My exposure is VXX @10%, EXH short @5%, TLT @ 10%, long WNR @ 5%, long EXK @10%, GSVC @ 5% and 55% cash.

France is up 6 fucking percent today. To fathom the mechanics of how that is possible is simply too unachievable– so early in the morning.

If I was to believe in this reflation story, taking into consideration that enormous +2.5% GDP number, I’d buy Iron Ore stocks, like X. Iron Ore is down 30% over the past month and iron stocks have been murdered. My most likely path is towards food and beverage. I am very keen on TEA and intend to give you a thesis soon.

Okay, news is coming fast, but it appears the EFSF deal has been reached. As expected, it will be 1.4 trilly, by using 400-500% leverage on cash. Haircuts on Greek debt will be 50% and that does NOT include ECB holdings. In other words, they are openly committing accounting fraud. The fund must be set up by next month and Italy swears on a stack of King James bibles they will get their shit together. Lastly, like TARP, Euro banks will be funded with 30 billion for recapitalization. No word on how many banks and which banks need the funding. My guess they reside in Germany and France.

What does this mean?

Well, it means gold and silver will soar. On this repeated news, stocks should not go higher. However, they’re going higher anyway. People want a reason to go long and this puts visions of QE3 in the minds of people. Ultimately, the debasement of the money supply will lead to artificial inflation, readily seen in oil, copper, gold, silver etc.

Under normal circumstances, we should sell off on this news. You know, buy the rumor, sell the news sort of thing. But it’s too early to judge, especially with futures up 14.

Either way, I will be getting my JAKEGINT on tomorrow via additional purchases of EXK and AG.

Vagrancy. That’s the word best used to describe the west today. Forget about the lies of American “exceptionalism.” The old whigs in Europe have managed to denigrate their finances to the point of asking for handouts from the Chinese. All western nations are fat, bloated pigs, suffocated by corrupt bureaucracies.

Since when is everyone entitled to a nice comfortable life?

We all have opinions and derive said beliefs into market positions in order to profit. I take nothing away from those of you who want the charade to continue for the benefit of your portfolios. I am made from the same cloth. However, investments aside, this is devastatingly tragic, seeing once proud nations diminished to nothing more than 1st class subways beggars.

The Chinese will gladly keep the music playing, in order to further fleece the west. Our western leaders have presided over the greatest transfer of wealth, from west to east, in the history of mankind. The only somewhat responsible party, Germany, is being choked into submission, to further denigrate their populace for the benefit of degenerate oyster shuckers in Greece. After this EFSF business is complete, artificial, self induced inflation may return, further expediting the transfer of wealth, from us to the oil barrons in the middle east.

Our leaders say we need “green energy” in order to keep the charade going. If they were serious about helping Americans, they’d permit oil exploration on an unprecedented scale. Instead, they give tax breaks for fucking solar panels that no one can afford. What’s next, windmills on cars?

I’m past the stage of buying into schemes. Therefore, I am protesting this rally through inaction.

The biggest standout for October, with regards to seasonality, was FFIV. I bought and sold the stock in September, but never played in October, regrettably. Like many of you, I am skeptical of seasonality and use it as a form of entertainment, instead of something tangible.

With today’s move in FFIV, it is within 1% of its historical average gain in October, a staggering +26%. Other top names for October that have done well include MSTR, HS, RNOW, SYNA, DGII, just to name a few.

What’s in store for November? A comprehensive seasonality toolset is available via The PPT and I will be posting a few screens worth member perusal soon. There are many ways to look at the data, stemming from average % gains to average win rate. A few that stand out are RMBS, CCOI, EXK, FSM, CCBG (flawless), MTD (flawless) and UPS. The overall prevailing theme is gold and silver. Aside from individual seasonality data, we provide information for over 200 sectors.

During the month of November, silver stocks had an average win rate of 60% for an average return of +6.35%. For the month of October, the average loss for silver stocks was 7.21%, by far the worst month of the year for silver.

All in all, over the past 17 years, the S&P has been up in the month of November 70% of the time, for an average return of 1.75%. Knowing this information, it’s important to position into the right sectors to take full advantage of a possible run. That entails buying into sectors that do well during November, in addition to all of the other things you may do to pick stocks. For example, a wide array of solar stocks do poorly in November. This is definitely something you want to know ahead of initiating a long position.

As an aside, be careful about bottom fishing in these high multiple momo stocks getting smashed. Names like HANS, AMZN, NFLX and GMCR may be tempting. However, more often than not, pikers like you get blown out in these names, due to lack of liquidity.

Avoid.

Let’s be realistic here. Germany represents just 27% of the EU GDP. Moreover, Italy and Spain represents a combined 29% of EU GDP. So, please tell me, how in the world do you expect the Germans to bail them out? Mathematically, it is impossible.

The only way out, sadly enough, is to print euros and legalize accounting fraud, just like we did in America. Here in America, our banks are allowed to lie about their balance sheets and our Fed are serial money printers, of the worst kind. Eventually, the chickens will come home to roost. This is bullshit, all of it.

The only thing I intend on buying is EXK, but not now. I am hoping for lower prices, in order to position myself for a November surge.

Just know this, whatever deal concocted out of Europe will be fallacious. Anything short of default is legalized accounting fraud.  They are asking for a “voluntary” 50% haircut from Greek bond holders in order to prevent CDS from triggering. Tell me, how the fuck is that possible?

artwork done by a certain Henry Fool 

Okay, in all seriousness, I had to literally torture and threaten to commit heinous acts of arson in order to get this done for you guys. The IT department at iBC is dedicated towards refining trading algorithms– this side of retail has never seen before, for absurdly affordable prices. If you consider that for a moment, then consider how expensive it is to hire IT talent these days, you know that “Dr. Fly” is a regular FOXCONN slave-camp Overlord.

Having said that, we’ve been working on this project for months and it is a great addition  to the site, a gift from me to you.

What the fuck is it, you ask?

It is your own blog, jackass. Honestly, I felt bad for you Peanut Gallery contributors. You were like orphans sleeping on a cardboard box on top of a lukewarm radiator.

Let’s get down to business.

SIGN UP HERE.

This is what you get:

Your own blog.
Free hosting.
Free IT support.
Exposure to iBankCoin’s 1.5 million page views.
All blogs will auto-tweet on iBankCoin’s corporate Twitter account that has over 18,700 followers, in addition to the iBC Blogger Network account.
Last but not least, you get to blog alongside the BlogFather aka “The Fly” aka “The Baddest Fucking Blogger in the Western Hemisphere” (the Eastern Hemisphere isn’t worth shit).

Without a doubt, this is going to be a huge success for iBankCoin and the financial blogosphere as a whole. Moreover, if you have a blog elsewhere and desperately seek readers, feel free to share your content here and link back to your blog. “The Fly” is benevolent that way.

In summary, consider every blog coming out of The iBC Blogger Network a punch in the face to the degenerates over at Seeking Alpha and other untoward internet sites.

NOTE: Readers will be able to sort by page views, comments, stars, tweets etc. In other words, the cream will rise to the top, whilst the miscreants get laser beamed to the fucking face. Also, once per month, similar to the KOPG title, the executive committee for proper blogging at iBC will honor one of you with a “Featured Blogger of the Month” title, which will come with isolated front page exposure on iBC (this is an excessively great honor).

BEHOLD: The iBC Blogger Network

To a default party, featuring “the original butt-fuckers” Greece, with guest stars “The Idiots from Italy”, “The Pricks from Portugal” and the “Seahorses from Spain.” This party will be hosted by “The Fucking French” and “Gregarious Grenading Germans.”

If you care to attend this party, please buy Greek, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese 10 yr bonds.

Refreshments will be provided by those dogs, the Americans.