I bet you expected some negative bearshit out of me today. Well, you’re wrong. To throw a wet towel on such a jubilant day is simply sour grapes. There is much to dislike about the EFSF deal and the euro-land economy; but how is that going to make me money today?
Mea culpa: I was not positioned correctly for this rally due to my disbelief in momentum. This was not a surprise. As a matter of fact, the news was out before it was out and the market was running ahead of the news that we already knew. So what is this all about?
Answer: momentum.
Money managers are throwing the kitchen sink at this market in an effort to win back their losses. Apparently, they won. The market is all the way back, AND MORE. Granted, some names, like X, are still deep in the hole. But, generally speaking, any broadly diversified fund made his/her year over the past 3 weeks.
I stand to lose today. The damage will be limited only because of my over-cautious positioning. I was stuck in the amber of extreme negativity to the point that putting on short positions made no sense to me. My exposure is VXX @10%, EXH short @5%, TLT @ 10%, long WNR @ 5%, long EXK @10%, GSVC @ 5% and 55% cash.
France is up 6 fucking percent today. To fathom the mechanics of how that is possible is simply too unachievable– so early in the morning.
If I was to believe in this reflation story, taking into consideration that enormous +2.5% GDP number, I’d buy Iron Ore stocks, like X. Iron Ore is down 30% over the past month and iron stocks have been murdered. My most likely path is towards food and beverage. I am very keen on TEA and intend to give you a thesis soon.
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HOOK?
Im buying EWZ or Brazilian stocks…Index is down 17% YTD…heavy material centric. Market is very momentum driven…lots of catching up with rest of world market.
BTW, CDS and Euro yields coming down too.
i like that idea
Still short CMG at 338…not too late…
Europe is still fucked, but they have leadership. Leaders who put together a plan of action and then speak positively about it to their populace. America used to have leaders like that.
your describing hank paulson no. he had a lie, i mean a plan,he took it to the peeps,and said “if we dont give the banks all your money” we will collapse. and spoke positively about it. now thats leadership.rof
I wasn’t even thinking of Hank P. That’s old news.
not the day to fling bearshit.
Short XLP etf (foods,beverage,consumer staples- sorry Fly) etf profitable day trade thus far.
INTC setting up for a nice SMH short in and out Homosexual Opera style (not that there is anything wrong with that).
Alf, are you there?
… alive and kickin’ !
.
So pissed i sold my international exposure on monday….bah
I bought both EEM and VWO etfs (emerging markets) yesterday on the intra day rebound yesterday but I am a daytrading fool so I sold late in day.
I never second guess (well, most of the time) because the market could have gapped down.
Always looking for the opposite on a gap at open.
XLP etf short was profitable.
long TVIX at 65…. mea culpa… or should I say mea funera.
FLY, are you covering any shorts? How about the TZA in your personal accounts?
He will not manage your account. Silly.
Feel the burn…oh by the way
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in new CNN/Time polls of the first four states on the Republican presidential nominating calendar — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida — though in Iowa and South Carolina, Herman Cain runs a close second.
Cain, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, runs second in each of the four states, and in three of the four states, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, runs third.
Thank you for taking time away from your kingdom to report on our plebian’s voting realms.
I will go ahead and say I am looking for places to get short today and I won’t be shocked if I get stopped out this afternoon.
Watch AAPL,INTC for a sign to short Q’s
I am on board with that. Also I do like how controlled GOOG is so far. I may get long GOOG as a day trade.
just got long GOOG by shorting OTM puts.
filled out my GOOG long while it was trading around 593.5
and out of GOOG long right now
Next week our debt:gdp goes over 100 (%)
And btw europe: still entering recession
Enjoy this short lived party. short…
3 strongest sectors ( XRT retail, XLY discretionary,and JNK junk bonds) are ALL stumbling back below there highs from a few days ago .
But the bigger question is, how the hell is printing the equivalent of 1 trillion euros going to send the euro up nonstop?
Simon Hobbs just moved up a notch in my book.
Then again, ironically you don’t have to be “right” to make money in the market.
I agree. Simon is slowly becoming one of the more interesting and opinionated group of the bunch. His healthy dose of skepticism is Mark Haines reminiscent…
So all problems solved right? As per this plan Greece will successfully be able to lower their debt to 120% by 2012. Hooray! GDP up 2.5%! Hooray! I see fireworks, champaign… time to celebrate. Even VIX is falling, including VIX futures…
Did I say hooray?
This market discounted the news starting several weeks ago.
I saw (sound is off)the CNBC headline “How To Play The Rally.”
Too late in the short term.
Watch AAPL for a sign.
Made the easy $$ fading the open- now heading to North rim Grand Canyon for a bad ass hike. This market isn’t worth spending more than an hour a day on.
Occupy anything other than wall street.
just curious did the credit default swaps trigger default event?
Contest to see when AAPL breaks $400.00.
I say 10:49 AM.
I think you might be spot on, but in the spirit of competition pencil me in for 11:04
I lose.
Unless there is a flash crash in the next 3 minutes.
Anything is possible with TradeBots and Governments running the markets.
Shanghai property value has dropped 25-30% this last month. My inside source (which told me this a week ago) was right!: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/shanghai-property-values-plunge-recent-buyers-protest.html
On another note: I bought yesterday and depending on how flat tomorrow is I plan on selling. If not, then the day after that, maybe even next month. It really depends how quickly the market goes up. The slower, the higher in the end, the faster, the lower the high is.
Sold all GLW, 20 % of FCX and 50 % of CLF to raise 5% cash today.
Crack spreads have gone positive!
That’s a positive!