You are enjoying a morphine shot right now. Before you know it, the market will be knifing lower again, as 0bamanomics kicks in and strips wealth from the land. Obamanomics will salt the earth and set flames to your hospitals.
Over the past 6 days, we’ve rallied 13%. Do you remember when I told you the bears who were betting on the eventual collapse wouldn’t profit from it because of their lack of patience? Well, this is what I was referring to. Bear market rallies are fucking insane and they make you feel like “we’re back.” The reality is, none of this is real. I am sorry to inform you of this, as you are young, stupid and naively bullish on the prospects of fucking nothing at all. The systemic dangers are more relevant now than ever before.
Look how low interest rates are and ask yourself “why is the housing market still in depression?” The top 4 banks are cartels and will not refinance the mortgages of millions of people in need because they desire the old, high coupon, debt. With the government fucking the banks with “The Volcker Rule” and Dodd-Frank, we are, essentially, a bankless nation.
Having said that, short squeezes are infectious. We can easily rally another 2-4%, defying all of the laws of reason and democracy– in true asshole fashion. My goal here is to remove beta and grind my volatility down to nil. Yesterday’s purchases pushed my long exposure up, so I will need to sell or add to shorts to achieve my goals. The point is, I am patient. I know exactly where this market is going, but not so sure when it’s going to get there.
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Indeud and well said.
If I lurked near your urinal would you tell me which way the market is going to go?
I’d wager you might get damp in the process.
unless you are long for the golden shower …
“The top 4 banks are cartels and will not refinance the mortgages of millions of people in need because they desire the old, high coupon, debt.”
I’d appreciate informative links on Dodd-Frank / Volcker.
With a myriad of designs herein, I’ve not read, with alacrity, the pyramid’s signs in re “suchness.”
Merci Grand.
p.s. yes, restrictions on foreign accounts (us v. “foreign” domiciliary stati – this much I get).
Off with the Brits heads!
Problem solved…
Thanks for the chuckle.
and even if we have seen the low for 2011 it does not mean the hammer wont drop in 2012.
i assume they will push aapl to 500 by years end..
we are due for a pullback now before the next move higher
I thought you were a flaming bull … Appreciate the poetics of reason & realism as I think you have a lot of prudent points…the flip side of me sees the technicals and this is just perfectly ripe for a pullback. NOT A CORRECTION but a pullback.
I’m 80% sure the bottom is on this market. We’ll get are general oscillation fucks of ups & downs…a few close to dramatic pullbacks that make you flash trauma panic again …but it will all kick off in the fashion of a bull hill north.
Watch GOOG today after the bell for earnings. I think if the big boys want to get this rally going and really kick off the bull market they’ll exploit GOOG’s earnings call to commence the party…well obviously assuming that they beat numbers…(nothing is free) . But the incentive is there. Nobody want’s to liquidate/sell at lower prices so rewarding GOOGs premium could theoretically be a strong market driver. Just like Oct 2010….GOOG popped hard ($60+) and the bull market was confirmed. GOOG’s pop was a litmus test that showed you Companies were making a helluva of cash. That quarter, 8 out of 10 companies was popping on earnings. It was insane! Even QCOM was up like $4, LULU up like $11, LVS up like $5. APKT, NFLX CMG CRM SINA BIDU most all balled to new heights.
This is more of a psychological angle of consideration but it has value. No one wants to sell at lower prices…
I am 100% sure the bottom is not in. S&P will go below 1,000 before the year ends.
agreed. all you need to do is look at 75 week MA chart over past decade for guidance. we still have at least 2 more legs lower over the next 2-4 months.
I think you’re theoretically & intellectually brilliant…but your technical skills need polishing. Either that or you’re drinking coffee & reading the IBD’s big picture segment & then lacing it with your cerebral benchmarks.
Hey let’s just leave it at GOOG today…if Goog drops today…then this market is fuqed this quarter. I’d come back on here & formally pay homage with my concession.
I think they’ll cocaine the Streets all up and party like it was October 2010 all over again. If they don’t …then this market will just continue to get more and more on the sidelines and they would have lost their chance to dupe us with the hard fakeout. They need our participation if they wanna get out alive…by alive I mean decent prices. THIS IS A GAME …they’re not interested in selling cheaper.
Institutions will try to get the best exit price they can for their liquidation and so it’s in their best interest to foment an impression as best as they can. A week ago every prop/bounce was fallacious: guilty till proven innocent. The trend was still down until and we were all just looking for reliable setups to show us a damn bottom. We got it on October 4th …and again a another near retest of that low on the Oct 5th. There is your 2nd leg down. So lets fucking Party. Show me the money and I’ll show you the money …they know that and they know this is their season to get all the moron longs back in the game. + american companies are cheap so the value proposition is actually looking pretty damn good
check out sec report, larry page selling shares past few days. goog misses, mkt continues down. http://1.usa.gov/qvXC9q
S&P below 1000?…if we should be so lucky.
If any one can do it…N0bama can.
FLY WE DID IT DOOD!!! BULL MARKET FULLY ON COCAINE AND BACK!!!!
COME ON MAN YOU KNEW I’D BE BACK ;~)
Fly –
Have you read this? Any thoughts about the proposal for a massive infrastructure, jobs & spending program? Maybe the trigger for a 10,000 point rally?
http://www.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/NAF–The_Way_Forward–Alpert_Hockett_Roubini.pdf
Thanks to Scott for re-tweeting, btw.
More top down social engineering we do not need.
Listen, experienced structural engineers are already in scant supply, and all that grand plan will do is further increase their cost, without increasing their supply (at least in the short term). The economy needs to be able to make rational choices as to where to best allocate scarce resources. The gov’t has NO BUSINESS exacerbating that problem.
Roubini is just another statist, despite his being right once. Now he approaches stopped clock status, and his “new” ideas are nothing more than warmed over Galbraithian nostrums.
Why should the world’s largest economy fetter itself to “one plan” when we can choose amongst millions and millions in a freed up economy?
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Jake –
Not sure of your definition of a freed up economy, but thinking that there will be a sudden repeal of every social welfare program in this country in order to provide more capital for business doesn’t seem very realistic to me.
Was developing a national highway system a good idea to begin with? Would millions and millions of plans developed by individual businesses working in their own enlightened self interest have rendered a similar result? Is much of the taxpayer-owned infrastructure in this country falling apart? Should we let the country turn into Detroit? Will millions and millions of plans coalesce to fix what’s broken?
Whether Roubini is a “statist” or Groucho Marxist or a vulgarian or any other label in your view is immaterial. We’re talking about an idea, or a series of them, and you’re too fucking smart to keep resorting to sloppy debating games, like tarring a guy with a label so as to more conveniently dismiss anything they say. So stop fucking doing that. If you want to put the man down, do it the mature way and point out that he sounds like Dracula and Zsa Zsa Gabor had a baby and Hans Landa was his nanny.
Your point about there being a shortage of structural engineers is probably a good one. And no, I don’t believe big gov’t or social engineering programs should be embraced.
But we are on the edge of losing the better part of a generation to unemployment or underemployment. The trajectory of their lives, and the life of this country, is going to look like a Mexican moon shot on our current course. Not every one of these kids are going to go pick fruit and vegetables like a migrant for a while, or start their own software companies, or become life coaches, or just have the decency to starve to death to improve our employment picture. But many will do stupid stuff, like block your access to your bank with their moldy sleeping bags and tambourines for lack of anything better to do.
Roubini’s is no 9-9-9, but it might help to fix a lot of broken stuff we already paid for, help to make us more competitive in the future, give some people some real job experience and keep a little bit of our frayed social fabric together over this period of global suckage.
But if you’ve got another idea, I’d love to hear it, my friend. And that is not sarcasm.
That’s what all the outperforming fund managers are doing…trying to run out the clock.
But a straight up 4th quarter rally will force your hand soon enough…and then the panic buying starts.
Why do people on CNBC talk about Jamie Dimon like he can walk on water when JPM was a $36 stock 10 years ago????
Because CNBC panders to these CEO’s to get exclusive interviews.
Plus JD is diddling half the anchorettes over there.
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It’s a hormone thing with the cast members. Y O
It has outperformed B of A and Citi even at that.
Nauseating, isn’t it? The way Erin Burnett used to gush over him was as if she was his mistress. In a journalistic way, she was….
I guessing another leg lower. We still have 15 months until the next presidential inauguration, Euro-land in an austerity mess, and just overall worldwide yukniess.
The infamous “yukiness” barometer.
Grandpappy Wille used to say to me…”Beware the yukniess [sic], junior. It’s a dirty sumbitch and it’ll punch you in the testicles.”
Dimon’s bearish forecast is obviously because he is short bank stocks.
I just love this blog! making me laugh everytime
oooo. 20 & 60 sma about to take gloves off.
FLY ARE YOU HOLDING WNR
Were coming you FLY so far I spent the last two days ripping bongs in Jamie Dimons winehouse with his family tied up like guinea pigs for an execution, were coming for you next your corporate thug of the man… WERE TAKING THE PROTEST ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK BABY TAKING TO THE BIG DOGS
Watch this…The Market is going to go positive by 1:45pm
All Hail!
QQQ is EVEN for the day. I’m covering some short rentals here.
QLD green, lol.
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I was a long time subsciber to Thestreet.com. Today they billed me and tried to tell me i could not cancel.I think they are going to refund me after i got pissed off but man,business is so bad they are adopting bucket shop tactics. coming over here when i don’t have to be a piker.
Looks like today was another buy the Dip!
glad I kept VXX and TZA
“We can easily rally another 2-4%, defying all of the laws of reason and democracy– in true asshole fashion.”
Hope we do melt up a little more. Will make the short entry into TZA calls more favorable.
We should be getting the wealth from Oprah, Clooney, Lady Gaga and Tiger Woods. At least the bankers run businesses. Financiers finance businesses. Dimon says it costs $300/yr to service a checking account, but Durbin takes away their debit card fees. This kind of populist shit is not sustainable.
You’re obviously a racist…
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