iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,474 Blog Posts

Impossible to Short

Unless you had insider information on GPS, this market is almost impossible to short. There is too much cash on corporate balance sheets to sleep well at night holdings shorts. Look at BKS. That company was having all sorts of problems, yet here we are now with a $17 buyout offer.

Barring calamity, I expect the mergers and acquisitions to continue, which in turn keeps me honest with regards to short positions: I don’t have any.

Instead of shorting, I’ve opted for the easy lifestyle of buying dips. My super aggressive posture in treasuries is not all that dangerous, considering the low beta of TLT. Essentially, holdings treasuries is just like holdings cash, with an outside chance of making 5%.

As the clock ticks, futures are improving. We will likely run higher today, led by oil and gas stocks. Nevertheless, I am still not buying.

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58 comments

  1. ruggyup

    1st? Top 2? Top 3? Forget it.

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  2. J

    FLY’

    aren’t you a little concerned the bangstas aren’t participating.

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    • The Fly

      Yes. I am not all in, but half in.

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      • J

        Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I was just making a general comment about the state of the market.

        I think the market weakest link is the bangstas which are basically dribbling down almost every day now.

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  3. WTF

    Impossible to Short. Impossible to Long.

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  4. razorsedge

    still holdin tza, -4% at the moment. doin the woulda shoulda, coulda, dance.

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  5. The Fly

    M zsl is ripping

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  6. Dr Genius

    LOL We are not done dropping.

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  7. Dr Genius

    This is Obama punishment to the speculators for trying to sabotage his reelection campaign.

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    • A Monkey with a Political Science Kazoo Made from Pez Candy
      A Monkey with a Political Science Kazoo Made from Pez Candy

      Is it just me noticing that these demotard presidents all try the “mideast peace” route to re-election?

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  8. john

    I am 50% long but most of that is tied up in BKS. Market action once again looks rather stale. I’ll hold on to everything I have right now and will only peel everything off if things get hairy. Nothing to do today.

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    • panamaorange

      Buying BKS? based on what? They’re selling an outdated overpriced android tablet as their flagship product. And their stores are still complete, empty, ghost towns.

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      • john

        My BKS stake was made in full 2 days ago. The tape read accumulation and turned out to be true.

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        • john

          FYI. I am not buying anymore BKS. I am carrying as much of it as I would like.

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  9. Frog

    Fascinating video of one of those Rube Goldberg contraptions– largest scale and most colorful and varied I’ve ever seen. Quite a show.

    http://www.youtube.com:80/watch_popup?v=qybUFnY7Y8w

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  10. theedge111

    Short the Euro and happy:)

    Slightly short stocks.

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  11. theedge111

    Also,

    Cash on corporate balance sheets is also counterbalanced with massive debtloads that were ponzied up during the boom years.

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    • Blind Read Ant

      My EUR/CHF entry was untimely (15 hours ago). Are you trading futures or currency Edge? Do you see a long in said pair too?

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  12. Juiceyfruit

    Fly, does is concern you that TLT is not up while the market is taking one to the chin?

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  13. discoordinated

    i concur and so I bought some JNK today. It will pay me at the beginning of June.

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  14. Baron de Rothschild

    “As the clock ticks, futures are improving. We will likely run higher today, led by oil and gas stocks”

    DJIA $DJI
    12,506.33
    -98.99
    (-0.79%)
    NASDAQ $COMP
    2,805.01
    -18.30
    (-0.65%)
    S&P 500 $SPX
    1,333.87
    -9.73
    (-0.72%)
    NYSE $NYA
    8,343.69
    -84.26
    (-1.0%)

    Nice call

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  15. Quint

    What’s the cause of today’s selloff?

    1. Dollar Rally?
    2. Options expiration produced a low volume bounce the past two days and now it’s over?
    3. The leading sector, Retail, just broke its uptrend on bad news from GPS & ARO?

    Or all three?

    Feel free to add more reasons…

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    • razorsedge

      end of world tomarrow,. buy spam

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    • Frog

      Max Pain for options expiration day was lower than yesterday’s close.

      Max Pain doesn’t always work every month though. They did have a little help from GPS & ARO & Greece. Sometimes the dollar looks comparatively good– like when Europe is pissing all over itself about Greek debt.

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  16. john

    Peeled off my exploratory bets. Stocks weren’t acting the way I wanted them to. Market is weak overall. The leadership stocks are lagging. The hot industry: Oil is off today. Solars are taking a beating. Ugly small time issues are up. Volume to the upside is disappointing, Volume to the downside has great breadth and some depth.

    Down to 25% Long. I don’t short since I’ve never been good at it. The market is once again looking dreary and I guess it is once again time to pack it in and wait for better days.

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    • Former Braniff Airlines Pilot Who Then Went to Work for Eastern Airlines...
      Former Braniff Airlines Pilot Who Then Went to Work for Eastern Airlines...

      The hot industry: Oil is off today

      Welcome to 1Q.

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  17. Prospectus

    I bought a tiny bit of DATE yesterday at 11.80. Indeud

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  18. razorsedge

    date is smokin

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  19. discoordinated

    I just finally bought my first shares of EXK

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  20. Dr Genius

    If we break 1315 SPX, there is no support for this market until 1250-1260. We might even dip a little lower in order to bring in more fear. This is good in order to create several conditions that will give us a prolong rally of 3-4 months.

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  21. john

    Just put on a sizable bet on ZLC. It’s ripping tits up. Can’t put a finger on a good reason for the move, but I’m looking for at least 20 percent on my money. It’s trading 1/2 Book. Perhaps another potential buyout candidate. Anyways, I think I’m getting good odds to my money. Will size up more if the move shows me it got some legs to it.

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  22. go2mars

    http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/mark-carney-frets-about-us-debt-woes/article2028318/?service=mobile

    I’m going to allocate my trading account 40% cash, 40% silver, and 20% energy over the summer. If silver slips under $25, I’ll go back to 80% silver.

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  23. J. Cramer

    The market is in correction and the dollar inverse correlation is high – dollar UUP. and market down. TZA and EUO show me some green – the rest of my crap is mostly red. Interesting that Silver may not have been driven up by speculators but by short covering? This would bode better for the future, no?

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    • panamaorange

      Market isn’t in correction. Nasdaq has been sideways for months. Emerging markets EEM sector is finding key support. This is just churn and sector rotation.

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  24. J. Cramer

    Does “Roll 100” work for $50?…….or any other interger? Does “Roll 100” work multiple times for the same stock – like OXY?……….or just one time only?

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  25. The_Real_Hmmm

    I’m so sick of this volatility, despite there being no “volatility.” It is quite dishonorable. Since when is KFT the market leader???

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      No kidding, Hmmm. Massive 4% swings sort of cease to be volatility and start being the markets trend.

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    • drummerboy

      them and dltr. i been messin wit dltr for sometime now. not in it now, but that mofo has wmt real worried. kraft, all i have to say is ,i’m impressed since they spun off. these 2 are nice “drawer”stocks.

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  26. Frog

    Good defensive stock. Relatively cheap processed food that poor people buy with their last few pennies, even if the economy sucks.

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  27. razorsedge

    im buying mos here, heard it on cnbc

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  28. JakeGint

    Thanks to a computer glitch, I get to do a “time machine” look on this morning’s action, and come up with a couple of useful (if arguable) conclusions…

    ___________

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  29. Raule

    LVLT …anyone in for the $2.00 roll?

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    • A Monkey with a Buy Low Sell High Strategy
      A Monkey with a Buy Low Sell High Strategy

      WNR the daily $16 daily?

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  30. Frog

    Wow. Looks like Fly was right. Impossible to short.

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  31. Trading Nymph

    Your telling me, lol. ACTUALLY this a big KEY MOMENT for the World imho, we are hitting the level in the China Stock Piles of Ore that have brought in buying since 2006…YET, as all of you know, China is going to do this crazy “Energy Savings ala Factory slowdowns” this summer…so why would they want to load up on Ore? But everyone that is playing the historical action is expecting buying..and this Nymph that watches it, just isn’t seeing it yet at all, today spot India Ore to China fell to early April price levels with not much interest by mills even with Monsoon weather coming…….SO will China restock?

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  32. razorsedge

    lng on frickin fire,,,,

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    • ruggyup

      Sure it is, right area, right product(LNG), right time but my tummy has bad vibes about management. Like others for international longer term play.

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      • john

        Just came across this. I am going to wait and see how this stock runs in the interim. Too risky to try and jump in now.

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  33. Dirk Diggler

    RIP Randy Savage

    http://www.popeater.com/2011/05/20/macho-man-randy-savage-dead-car-accident-heart-attack/?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk1|64440

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  34. Prospectus

    Op Ex Pin action in effect

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    • Trading Nymph

      POMO and pop in Gold over Greece fears. That popped the Oil price over Gold/Dollar ratio Bots use. But BOTTOMLINE my US Dollar is staying over 75.00, which last night I got a bit worried about.

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      • razorsedge

        hard to play today, just sold out of tza, but comds up, dollar up? playin should i stay or should i go..

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