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It’s Options Expiration Friday, and there’s all kinds of odd schtuff going on. Interestingly, I marked up the dollar chart last night, and again could only get the title to “save” to the site. I don’t know if this is a time of day issue connected to WordPress, or if it’s something going on with my home laptop (which is fine in all other respects), but it’s beginning to wear on me bones.
That said,that glitch allowed me to get some 20/20 hindsite on my review of last night, and that may be helpful to us all. Note how I was looking for further dollar destruction, at least to the 20-day EMA yesterday evening:
Well, what really happened, then? Instead of breaking down to the 20-day, the dollar soared (relatively, of course), starting at about 4:30 am (EDT) this morning, from a break-down below $75.00 all the way to $75.76 at approximately 10:45 am, before burning out like an dynamite-filled white Bronco headed to the sun and dumping 25 basis points in about an hour.
Was that all for the dollar today? I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes, and attribute this morning’s chicanery to folks interesting in goosing certain options positions.
I say that because the price of gold ($GOLD) made a curiously similar — but opposite! — dump and go at the exact same time that the dollar did. It dropped over $18 dollars starting at 4:30 this morning as well, from $1504/0z to $1486/oz, just as the dollar made it’s mystery march, only to viciously bounce back over $29 to $1515/oz in little more than an hour and half…
We currently stand at a nickel over $1513/0z as the dollar tries to work back over $75.50, but my “tell” that the ruse if over lies over in my pile of Jacksonian miner stocks, which continue to strengthen and all show “highs of the day” as of this typing.
Let’s see if my little prediction above doesn’t come true after all, despite early morning chicanery on the the part of Les Grand Shacqueurs du Monde.
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Meanwhile, if you want something more exotic than PM’s, I think you may have an opportunity in the Rare Earth Metals today, and particularly in one of my faves, QSURF:
I think this morning’s brief sell-off, which stayed above the 20-day EMA, may offer some entry opportunity for the less risk averse among you. Best to all.
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kool monkey,all thats needed is a shot of jack for the little guy.
Is that a Newport he is smoking?
So what’s your conclusion…is dollar going back below $75?
Oh yes, at least.
I think it tests the 20 day, and then the recent lows….
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Can’t come soon enough for me
Jake, how much do you attribute to your technical analysis for your returns? Do you know of any money managers using similar work? Maybe some big hedge fund would want to hire you for a trial?
LOL.
I gots me a job, but thanks.
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Why do people assume that someone with the passion, talent, and work ethic to make millions independently would want to go work for and make some asshole rich?
Reminds me of the guy who made the game Minecraft all by himself, making $350k a day selling it himself, and then game companies like Valve and Bungie offer him a job as a developer.
I thought it was the Fitch downgrade of Greek debt that caused the dollar and gold to rise at the same time. We had a fade in the mining ETFs EOD but looking at a 2-year weekly of GDX, it has not broken the lower trendline that dates back to July 2009. For now, the $53 range looks like short-term support. I’m not saying to buy the miners hand over fist – as a veteran gold bug has said seasonality favors buying gold in July. Also, $HUI was now above resistance on the weekly chart last time I looked.
Now that’s some rare earth PM indiedo.
@Jake: What is the basis for your $QSURF bullishness? Is it the fact that they are uplisting? Technical analysis? Do you like all rare earths because of the shortage? Do you have Canadian Miner friends who know what lies beneath? Others are MCP, REE, AVL but why QSURF? I bought a 1000 shares this morning and may add monday on the uplisting but I value your insight and so far you haven’t explained your thesis.
So Sorry. I am not your advisor.
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@Russ – 3 words: Strange Lake & HREE’s.
Thx JG!
Picked up some NUGT too!
[/hair smoldering]
@MOTV8: Thank you. I will checkout Strange Lake & HREE.
@Jakegint: Sorry.
In some “QRM” today….hey Jake, what do you know or think of Ucore? Wouldn’t they fill a huge need for MCP?
Side note: look at gold, gettin’ all uppity, flipping off the dollar! Afternoon rally?
But why do like this stock? You said it was one of your favorite stocks.
It’s only natural to ask why. And I was asking the same thing.
We know you are not our stock advisor, but you are putting this shit out there for people to read. I am so sick of seeing people be rude to someone who asks a question in a polite manner. Or who shares their thoughts in a polite manner.
WTF. Never mind. I don’t even care I can do my own research.
I’m sure your brothers will be along to kick my ass shortly.
@Jake: What is the basis for your $QSURF bullishness? Is it the fact that they are uplisting? Technical analysis? Do you like all rare earths because of the shortage? Do you have Canadian Miner friends who know what lies beneath? Others are MCP, REE, AVL but why QSURF? I bought a 1000 shares this morning and may add monday on the uplisting but I value your insight and would love for you to elaborate on your favorable view of QSURF.
Is that a high tight flag? I was reading the definition from Wood’s thread and I’m thinking it fits.
100% gain in four weeks, followed by a descreet pullback for three weeks. I don’t know if the pullback was exactly descreet, but it is a HTF, right?
The only reason I can think you are in a pink is because they must be going to be listed on the AMEX soon.
I did some research and understand that in the REE space this is one of the best, but I had the same questions russ has.
I sold my AAU at a loss, one of the few producers I have done that with in the last while, but I just finally decided that I don’t get that company. I might jump into this one with some of that cash now, though.
Correction: one of the few non producers. They describe themself as a project generator.
Jake, Any thoughts on AAU? Last 7 sessions have been brutal. Realistically, does it have the ability to perform like XG? Or, do you think one can do without holding it short term.
Looks like the 200 day is providing support. This would not be the place to sell, imho, but if it’s paining you, by all means, let some go.
This is the way the markets work on you, btw. Do you think I’ve been through a couple of these? 😉
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As always, thanks for the input.
I am not a fan of holding stocks, but am training myself to do so in certain situations.
Yes. You exude experience with trading PM’s.
added to QRM today.
PZG holding its own on nice volume.
Honorable Senator Gint,
Even after uplisting QRM (nee QSURF) can’t get no love. MCP weathered the unlock and is running, hell even little UURAF is up after their trip to the Hill. QRM needs some VOLUME!
Happy Belated B-day Sir, and enjoy the holiday!