08-01-2014 Trading Journal

The market took another tumble albeit a relatively small one compared to yesterday.

Looking at the chart, you can see for formation of a doji bar right on the 79 & 89 MA lines.  In a normal circumstance, a doji at any support or resistance has a better than 50% chance of reversing from current momentum.  Without resistance or support nearby the doji, it is more of a pause of existing trend.  Notice I stated “better than 50%”; not necessary in the high percentile of 70% and up.  However, if I’m a betting man, I’ll bet it is going to bounce next week.

While I got away yesterday from bigger losses, market found a way to hand it back to me today.

First, I sold my whole lot of $KGJI simply ’cause I was annoyed by the withdrawal of the cash dividend that was posted to my account.  Since I used the cash dividend to add more $AMRN, the withdrawal put me in a deficit cash situation (remember, I’m 100% invested in a non-margin account) and I received a debit call from my broker this morning.  I’ve never experienced a retraction of cash dividend ever after being posted to my account by any company.  This retraction was a red flag no matter how you spin it.  Waiting for approval from provincial government?  What if the provincial government denies approval?  Does that mean, “Sorry folks, we tried to give you dividend, but the big boss says no.” 

Anyway, to relieve my cash deficit, I sold some $KGJI to balance it back.  Then before I knew it, I sold the whole lot ’cause I just didn’t like the red flag that was handed to me in a silver platter.  With the add’l cash, I added more $HYGS.  Yes, I am a big believer in the emergent relevancy of fuel cell technology.

The irony of the day is that $HYGS is the only stock in my port that went up today while the other five stocks were down.

Take a look at the weekly chart above. This week was an up bar that continued from last week up bar while the $SPY had a big down weekly bar this week.  The counter-trend against the falling general market makes $HYGS a very bullish stock when general market turns bullish. Imagine seeing the beginning of the 3rd wave of the five wave Elliott Wave Theory on the weekly chart.  I can see $100+ when the 3rd wave complete its run.  Pardon my excitement here.

$DMRC continued to disappoint but I’ve resigned to wait this one out.  A sudden turn-around can be expected if a deal can be struck with any big name retailers.

$AMRN gave back was expected as I had stated yesterday.  Without FDA response today, no one wanted to hold thru the weekend.  However, giving the volume yesterday compared to today’s, I suspected a lot more people are holding for the FDA decision.

Today damage was 2.7% against my port and YTD losses is 4.1%.

Current holdings… and then there is six…

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, STV, AMRN, ORBC (100% invested/speculated)

Notice that $HYGS is now my 2nd largest position.  $DMRC will have to earn its place back by climbing back up in the near future.

From my other account:

I bought $KNDI for the bounce and bounced it did; but it also took out my breakeven stop later on.

My 2 cents.

 

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The bear finally found the bull weak spot and pushed its advantage.  As a result, the market fell hard.

However, price is approaching the 79 & 89 MA support lines.  I’m anticipating a bounce from here since it is near the support MAs.  As seen from the daily chart above,although today was down big, it is still within the context of the bull market.  In other words, the major uptrend line has not been violated yet.  If it bounces from here, the bull is still on.

While five of my seven stocks were down, $AMRN rallied hard thanks to Adam Feuerstein, who foresaw the collapse of $AMRN before it actually happened, wrote a somewhat bullish thesis in that $AMRN is a good bet with good risk/reward ratio.. Thus, $AMRN singlehandedly stopped my port from taking a big hit in today market avalanche.

See how price took out the high of $1.78 established in July 1st?  This confirmed a more bullish stance ’cause the two previous pivot highs (May 2nd and July 1st) had been taken out.  Now, if price can only stay above the $1.78 for the time being while waiting for the FDA decision.  In reality, despite my up day on $AMRN, the gain was on borrowed time ’cause if FDA voted no again, down it goes.  However, if FDA votes yes, it will make my day as well as my year.

Another stock worth mentioning is $HYGS.

Despite being down more than a buck during the day, it had enough buyers to push it back to close at 46 cents lower.  Being a small float stock, it was a strong performance in a down day.  If I had spare cash, i will see any price below $22 a good bargain to buy more.  I guess I wasn’t the only one thinking this way.

I was surprised to see $STV closed higher for the day.

It did trade lower but it came back to close higher.

I had a strange incident today with my $KGJI cash dividend.  I saw the money in my account as promised by previous dividend declaration news from $KGJI.  Then I found out later that $KGJI actually was postponing issuing the dividend until August 28th.  What’s up with that?  Since I already got my dividend in my account, I thought I lucked out with a premature slip.  I used the proceed to buy more $AMRN.

Lo and behold, when I looked at the online statement just now, I found that $KGJI actually pulled the cash dividend out of my account!  What bug me was that $KGJI had a whole month after announcement of dividend declaration to seek approval from their government, why now?  Anyway, I’ve to revisit my conviction in staying with this stock.

If $KGJI had not pulled out the cash dividend, I would have a positive day.  Instead, my port suffered a small 0.5% losses thanks to $AMRN for saving the day.  YTD losses is now 1.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, AMRN, ORBC (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

I placed a breakeven stop on $KNDI and was promptly stopped out in the morning.  Oh well…

My 2 cents.

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