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Monthly Archives: May 2012

Get Out Your Vomit Bags; The EU Will Play Hardball With Greece

Earlier we wrote up a note from BNP Paribas discussing the dramatic economic collapse that would happen in Greece (on top of what’s happened already!) were Greece to quit the Euro.

But before Greece gets to that state, something else has to happen first: basically, the mother of all games of Chicken.
Full article

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How Bad is the Red Rain in Spain?

Spain is said to be underestimating the problems in their banking system. The recent requirement to set aside funds is only good for half the losses that could be realized. Will they go the way of Ireland ? Find out more in this descriptive article.

Full article

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Market Update: Chartology

Are you confused about the markets ? Down’t worry since most investors are on the sidelines and the robots have taken over.

Given the European close and our markets not really responding, i have a tendency to think that there is no gas left in today’s rally. Would not be surprised if we close flat.

One common theme that many charts display is the 20 day sma has fallen through the 50 day. Take a look here

Both the bulls and the bears can make an argument for why this is good. Bulls can say we need a rest while bears will say this is the beginning of the unavoidable.

Looking at the S&P we would be safer to place our bets, (on the long side,) if we see a close above 1378. Otherwise imo we are in no mans land waiting to see which way the markets will go.  On the downside a close below 1354 would not be good for the bulls.

I will continue to day trade the volatility as i find this the best environment to make money.  Otherwise this market is perfect for a ….

GLT

Market Update

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEEzbFxEbB8&feature=related 450 300]

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The Growing Cult of Amazon Prime: Will it Make the Company, or Sink it?

via Jeff Bailey at ycharts.com

love free shipping as much as the next person, and also find the level of service at Amazon to be fabulous, so I read with great interest Jason Calacanis’ latest post on the Launch blog, “The Cult of Amazon Prime.”

“There are two types of people in the world: those with Amazon (AMZN) Prime and those without,” Calacanis begins. He has it and loves it, estimating it saves him 250 hours a year by keeping him out of stores and also lets him avoid “the most horrifying experience of all: retail employees.” He adds: “One of the greatest joys of the cult membership is never again having to deal with an apathetic teenager or bitter baby boomer forced to work retail.”

READ THE REST HERE 

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Carly Fiorina’s Open Letter to Mark Zuckerberg: $FB

Dear Mark,

Congratulations!

Through vision, grit, persistence and brilliance, you are about to launch the largest IPO in American history.

You have understood our needs and desires for connection and communication better than we understood them ourselves.

You have gathered a great management team around you, hired the brightest and most motivated employees, and maneuvered through a competitive landscape that is unprecedented in its complexity and pace of change. You are a great entrepreneur who will now define and personify our ideal of American innovation. You have made history and changed history, not just on Wall Street but on streets around the world. You have altered everything from teenagers’ social lives to tyrants political calculations.

None of us can imagine what it feels like to be you, which is one reason the cameras are ever-present and there will be more books and movies.

However, some of us can imagine the transition Facebook must now go through as the company rushes, with huge fanfare, headlong into the world of publicly traded stocks. (In 1995, I helped lead what was then the largest-ever IPO, spinning out Lucent Technologies from AT&T On the day of our New York roadshow, the WSJ headline read: “It’s The Rolling Stones, it’s Barbra Streisand, no it’s the Lucent roadshow”.)

Whatever the ultimate valuation of Facebook, it will be one of the most sought-after equities in the world.

It is in that spirit that I humbly offer three tips:

1) Do not change your focus on the creation of long-term value or deviate from your strategic ambitions.

While this may seem simple and obvious, it will become increasingly difficult. The majority of investors now hold stock for an average of four months. Most money-managers are rated annually on their performance against benchmark indices. While you are focused on the longer-term, those who buy your stock are focused on the shorter-term. And because your stock has received so much hype, these short-term investors will be very impatient. While you, your team and your Board know that their impatience cannot drive company strategy, their pressure will be real.

Do not establish the precedent of providing quarterly earnings guidance. While you must of course protect competitively sensitive information, communicate as proactively and transparently as possible about your strategic goals and operational performance metrics as well as how you track your own progress and performance against both.

2) Whatever the ultimate valuation of Facebook, it will be one of the most sought after equities in the world.

A lot of people are now counting on your performance. Beyond risk-tolerant venture capitalists, risk-averse pension funds and 401ks will now own your stock. Expect a lot more questions about how you make decisions.

Many of these questions will be driven by current headlines and conventional wisdom, but they are nevertheless legitimate. Your new owners want to understand how you lead and how you evaluate choices.

Answering them will encourage longer-term holdings.

3) Be patient.

No one knows more about Facebook, or has more riding on its performance, than you. That won’t stop what will quickly seem to be endless commentary, scrutiny, suggestions, questions and sometimes, criticisms. Some of it will be thoughtful, some ignorant, some well-intended and some malicious. Be open to what makes sense and try to ignore the rest.

You have come very far, very fast and the sky is still the limit.

You represent all that is right about our economy, our markets, our nation. In the midst of all the pressure and expectations, hold onto who you are and what you do best. We are all rooting for you.

Carly Fiorina

source: CNBC

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European Markets Remain Strong Into the Closing Bell

Into the close of European markets the indices seem to be sticking their gains.

Indices watch

European markets were happy to hear that attempts are being made to form a coalition government in Greece; but the main topic of concern was Spain. Spanish authorities nationalized  the 4th largest bank sending the Spanish stock market up 3%.

Full article

 

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50 Year Study: Democrats Preside Over Better Private Job Growth Despite Less Time in Oval Office

“They have spent less time in the Oval Office than their conservative counterparts over the last five decades, but Democratic presidents have presided over better private sector job growth than Republicans.

Bob Drummond at Bloomberg analyzed 50 years worth of statistics from the Department of Labor and found that non-government payrolls increased by about 42 million jobs under Democrats, compared with 24 million for Republican presidents.”

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52 Week Highs and Lows

NYSE

New Highs 32 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Airgas Inc                    ARG         92.60               15,910 
Aspen Ins Hldgs Perp Pfd      AHLpB       25.14               54,421 
WR Berkley                    WRB         39.05               31,872 
BlkRk MuniHldgs CA Qlty       MUC         15.96               17,525 
BlkRk MuniHldgs Quality       MUS         15.07                8,686 
BlkRk MuniYld CA Quality      MCA         15.69                9,579 
Chesapeake Lodging Tr         CHSP        18.64                2,400 
Coca-Cola Femsa               KOF         109.14               3,100 
Family Dollar                 FDO         70.00               73,652 
FirstEnergy                   FE          47.60            1,760,121 
FleetCor Technologies         FLT         41.30               66,891 
Hershey                       HSY         68.45               83,216 
Invesco CA Qty Tr             IQC         14.69                1,667 
Invesco VnKmCAInc             VCV         14.34               16,168 
Kimberly-Clark                KMB         79.93              150,836 
M/I Homes                     MHO         14.46               20,557 
MarriottVacations             VAC         31.02               33,187 
McCormick & Co                MKC         56.84               20,964 
Monmouth Real Es Inv Cl A     MNR         10.55                6,953 
Nuveen NJ Investment Qual     NQJ         15.39                1,018 
Nuveen NJ Premium Income      NNJ         16.06                  836 
Nuveen Sel 3                  NXR         14.87                1,422 
Post Properties               PPS         50.62               55,934 
Putnam Muni Opportunities     PMO         12.91               17,054 
Scripps Netwrks Inter A       SNI         55.35               50,402 
Sherwin-Williams              SHW         125.20              99,955 
Tanger Factory Outlet Ctr     SKT         32.75              104,560 
Toll Brothers                 TOL         27.50              527,582 
Weingarten Realty Inv         WRI         27.47               33,859 
Wstrn Asset Muni Ptnrs Fd     MNP         16.51                1,443 
Wstrn Asset Worldwide Inc     SBW         14.89                5,906 
White Mountains Insur         WTM         545.00                 414 

New Lows 8 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Ares Commercial Real Est      ACRE        16.26               23,588 
Banco Bradesco ADS            BBDO        12.94                  200 
Buckeye Partners              BPL         51.80               25,023 
Kaydon Corp                   KDN         22.96               35,980 
Memc Elec Materials           WFR         2.99             1,861,432 
NTT DOCOMO Inc                DCM         16.31               23,327 
Sinopec Shanghai Petro        SHI         32.19                4,004 
U.S. Silica Holdings          SLCA        14.58               27,710

NASDAQ

New Highs 28 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
AMERISAFE                     AMSF        27.88                8,091 
Astrotech                     ASTC        1.32                25,079 
BSB Bancorp                   BLMT        12.90                  700 
Beacon Roofing Supply         BECN        27.60              329,517 
Bona Film Group ADS           BONA        6.20                33,700 
Bridgeline Digital            BLIN        1.42                 9,318 
CalAmp                        CAMP        6.43                12,410 
Casey's General Stores        CASY        60.22                9,556 
Charter Communications        CHTR        68.06               31,037 
First Merchants               FRME        12.82                3,806 
Franklin Financial            FRNK        15.00               15,039 
Hain Celestial Group          HAIN        52.62               40,406 
ICU Medical                   ICUI        53.79               12,708 
Inventure Foods               SNAK        6.74                 9,149 
iSh Barclays GNMA Bd Fd       GNMA        55.00                  300 
iShs FTSE EPRA/NAREIT NA      IFNA        48.76                  439 
LKQ                           LKQX        35.17               52,678 
Linktone   (ADS)              LTON        1.72                 1,910 
Liquidity Services            LQDT        66.23               29,573 
MutualFirst Fincl             MFSF        11.43                  100 
NewsCorp A                    NWSA        20.45            3,788,950 
Penford                       PENX        9.65                 1,300 
PhotoMedex                    PHMD        18.05                9,050 
Quest Software                QSFT        25.32              160,019 
Retail Opp Inv wt             ROICW       1.75                 3,750 
Saia                          SAIA        20.84                4,513 
Susser Hldgs                  SUSS        30.44               10,510 
21st Century Hldg             TCHC        5.17                 3,801 

New Lows 13 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Advocat Inc                   AVCA        4.01                 5,960 
Cavium                        CAVM        24.08              205,341 
EnerNOC                       ENOC        5.60                23,983 
GT Advanced Technologies      GTAT        5.89                96,399 
Green Plains Renew Engy       GPRE        6.96                25,678 
NeurogesX                     NGSX        0.31                66,879 
Peerless Manufacturing Co     PMFG        11.66               12,083 
Quality Systems               QSII        28.82              593,996 
SMART Technologies            SMT         2.24                 8,500 
Silicon Graphics Intl         SGI         6.90               926,049 
Telestone Techs               TSTC        2.50                 7,998 
Utd Online                    UNTD        3.95                62,601 
Windstream                    WIN         10.13            4,939,088

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Bernanke Makes Positive comments on Lending and Banking in General

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that many businesses and consumers are finding it easier to borrow as banks shore up their balance sheets.

Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Speaking by teleconference from Washington, he noted that the capital and liquidity positions of banks have been strengthened but he also said home mortgage lending continues to be very tight.

Bernanke said home mortgage credit outstanding with banks has contracted about 13 percent from its peak.

In response to criticism that regulators have made it difficult to lend, Bernanke said the Fed is taking a “balanced approach” in supervising banks.”

Full article

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CEOs to Geithner: Don’t Raise Dividend, Capital Gains Taxes

“A group of 18 CEOs have sent an open letter to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner urging the continuation of favorable tax treatment for dividends and capital gains.

The CEOs come from blue-chip companies such as Verizon and Duke Energy. They posted the letter on Politico.

Long-term capital gains and most stock dividends are currently taxed at a 15 percent rate. ”

Full article

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49% Of Americans Are Not Saving For Retirement

America has a serious problem saving for retirement.

About 49% of Americans say they aren’t contributing to any retirement plan, according to a new survey conducted by LIMRA, a trade association for the financial services industry.

“The findings from this survey were disturbing, given that people will increasingly need to rely on their personal savings to make ends meet in retirement,” said Matthew Drinkwater, associate managing director at LIMRA’s retirement research division.

People ages 18 to 34 are the least likely to be saving, with 56% reporting that they are not currently contributing to a retirement plan like an IRA or a 401(k).

“In order to have the adequate savings necessary to meet their financial needs in retirement — which could last 20 or more years — it is critical that these individuals begin saving systematically early in their working years,” Drinkwater said.

Read the rest here:

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Most Active Options Trades

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        5/11/12           8.0000        1999            0.0300      dn 0.0100 
AMZN       6/16/12         225.0000         214            9.2000      up 0.3000 
CSCO       10/20/12         19.0000         125            0.5500      dn 0.7200 
GLD        5/19/12         155.0000         103            1.5900      up 0.0700 
CSCO       5/11/12          18.0000         100            0.0200      dn 0.9600 
AAPL       5/19/12         570.0000          99           11.5600      up 0.8600 
AAPL       5/11/12         565.0000          97            9.8700      up 2.5400 
AAPL       5/11/12         580.0000          97            1.2000      dn 0.1000 
FCX        5/19/12          36.0000          84            0.8100      up 0.0600 
GLD        6/16/12         160.0000          77            1.3100      dn 0.0100 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
WIN        5/19/12          10.0000         150            0.1800      up 0.1400 
BAC        5/11/12           8.0000         137            0.1900      dn 0.1200 
AAPL       5/11/12         570.0000         107            2.0500      dn 2.6500 
JCP        6/16/12          30.0000          93            0.9400      up 0.0300 
AAPL       5/11/12         575.0000          82            4.1500      dn 3.3200 
CSCO       5/11/12          16.0000          71            0.0100      up 0.0000 
GLD        5/19/12         155.0000          69            1.4600      dn 0.5600 
AAPL       5/11/12         580.0000          67            8.0700      dn 3.0800 
TM         5/19/12          77.5000          66            0.3000      dn 0.5600 
CSCO       5/11/12          18.0000          63            0.8300      up 0.6200 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
17867    15769        33636
-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
CSCO       10/20/12         19.0000       13177            0.5500      dn 0.7200 
BAC        5/11/12           8.0000       12571            0.0200      dn 0.0200 
PBR        5/19/12          22.0000        8303            0.3300      up 0.1000 
SPY        5/11/12         139.0000        2886            0.0500      up 0.0000 
SPY        6/16/12         143.0000        2200            0.4700      up 0.1100 
SPY        5/11/12         138.0000        2141            0.2000      up 0.0800 
PANL       5/19/12          45.0000        2003            0.1000      dn 0.8000 
ELN        7/21/12          13.0000        2000            1.3000      up 0.1000 
ELN        7/21/12          17.0000        2000            0.4000      up 0.0000 
INTC       6/16/12          28.0000        1870            0.4500      dn 0.0200 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
CSCO       10/20/12         16.0000       13491            0.7600      up 0.2300 
SPY        5/19/12         130.0000       10051            0.1500      dn 0.1700 
SPY        5/19/12         132.0000        5272            0.3100      dn 0.2600 
SPY        5/11/12         132.0000        2515            0.0300      dn 0.0700 
SPY        12/22/12        117.0000        2500            3.5900      dn 0.2200 
SPY        6/16/12         134.0000        2215            2.2400      dn 0.5400 
CSCO       5/11/12          17.0000        2138            0.0700      dn 0.0100 
SPY        5/19/12         136.0000        1943            1.1500      dn 0.6200 
SPY        6/16/12         135.0000        1752            2.5200      dn 0.6100 
SPY        5/19/12         137.0000        1615            1.6000      dn 0.7400 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
286958    273093        560051

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FL Supreme Court to Decide Over a Case That Could Undo Hundreds of Thousands of Foreclosures; Banks Should Be Worried

“(Reuters) – The Florida Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments Thursday in a lawsuit that could undo hundreds of thousands of foreclosures and open up banks to severe financial liabilities in the state where they face the bulk of their foreclosure-fraud litigation.

The court is deciding whether banks who used fraudulent documents to file foreclosure lawsuits can dismiss the cases and refile them later with different paperwork.”

Full article

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