18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,615 Blog Posts


Thank you Mr. Wonderful!

What the fuck is going on here? Cramer is shitting on western press to talk shit about China? Has he been cloned and replaced?


In other news, Fly had THREE BIG WINS in the after hour’s today: SEDG, HUBS, MTCH.

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Solid Day — Look For a Gap Fill on the Nasdaq

If you walked away like me and only observed the end of day price action — you’ve got to be bullish on this close. The Nasdaq, barring another Trump tweet, is likely to gap fill a bit higher from here and offer some upside to long dicked bulls now. Weak longs got pressed the fuck out of their positions today, with the whipsaw action scaring Junior at the trading turret until he shit his pants.

I booked a profit in DRIP and also averaged down in ZEN.

Solid as fuck close, one worth betting on.

That’s all I have, other than watch out for Trump’s revenge on President Xi. Anything can happen out there — wild times.

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THE FUCKERY: Trump’s Navarro Calling for 100bps Fed Cut

I don’t know what to make of this — but I am not adding to any positions until after 3:30. I suggest you wait for a clear direction before starting anything new.

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Futures reversed course after China said the Yuan wouldn’t keep going lower. Now everyone is jerking off to the tape. Some of you out there, evil malevolent people, probably thought Le Fly would take an L. Those people are wrong. As a point in fact, the last thing I did yesterday was buy DRIP — because I knew oil could serve as an outlier to the markets — down while up and that sort of thing.

On this very morning, that’s EXACTLY what transpired.

See pal, that’s who I am.

Fuck you go home and play with your kids.

I booked an easy as pie win on DRIP today, “a minor jaunt” if what we call it in the northeast — for the express purposes of profit. While some of you might try to duplicate the swashbuckling of Le Fly, I do not recommend it for rookies — for it is both dangerous and absurd for you to compete with me.

Going forward, I bought stock in a SAAS name this morning and will add to the market, or subtract from it — as I deem necessary.

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There’s always a different narrative driving prices. It changes all the time and if you’re not paying attention to the latest flavor — you’ll be out of the loop. Because of the US-China trade war, traders are looking for signs of Chinese retaliation — which is most easily seen in the USD/CNY cross. When the yuan depreciates, it’s viewed as a manipulated affront in the trade war — which is not exactly true — but oh well.

Starting out the evening, Dow futures were -500. Now we’re barely down 100 and trending up. Truth is, whenever you get these really dire overnight sessions — they always rebound.

If Yuan drops, so will futures. For now, I’d expect markets to drift into European trade. I do not think this move is overtly bullish, however. These overnight jerk off sessions are filled with retards playing from their pajamas. We could fucking tank thru the god damned floor boards tomorrow morning after another Trump tweet. Kyle Bass is suggesting Trump is going to seize assets from members of the CCP. Who knows what could happen next?

All I know is that the trend is now lower. This might change — but we should respect it. Just because futures battled off the ground does not mean we’re going to have a gangbuster session tomorrow. Be careful of the misdirection.

In other news, I just got back from NYC — walking my kids and wife around — dining and shopping like fools. I bumped into iBC’s VINCENZO ILLUMINATI in the Sky-Walk and had a pleasant talk amidst some perfect weather happy moods. Incidentally, I used to host iBC employee dinners in NYC around this time each and every year, up until 2015. We used to eat well and drink heartily and cap off the night with cigars.

On the Lyme front, BIG ASS rash has developed. I’ll be going for a blood test tomorrow morning. I do not need the test, for I already know that I am cursed and have the most debilitating form of Lyme in existence.

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Never Be Envious of “The Fly”, For His Plight is Hard and Filled with Terrors

It’s real easy to come to iBankCoin and hate on the caretaker here, since this Fly fellow is always winning in the market and talking shit. He must be lying. I bet he lives in his mother’s basement. I’ve heard them all. But what’s important for you to know, aside from all of these grandiose stock market victories, such as being 60% weighted gold and 15% inverse ETFs into today’s calamity, I am plagued in a hardened way by other maladies.

For example, just yesterday, as I was about to hop into the shower, I caught a glimpse of my olympian styled body and bore witness to a GIGANTIC FUCKING TICK sucking the life out of my body. I quickly ripped it off and threw it into the toilet. Now I have a giant rash and most likely Lyme disease. Since I have multiple errands to attend to today, none of which have anything to do with things that I want to do, I am unable to see a doctor to get the proper medicine that might save my life.

As I am attempting to leave the state of NJ for warmer climes down south, things keep breaking inside of House Fly, costing thousands in repair. Gigantic trees collapsing in my yard, snapping fences in half, severing irrigation lines, pipes flying in the air in need of immediate repair.

My life is one gigantic struggle filled with wanton stress and liabilities that can only be paid by me. My sole outlet from this chaotic world of crass malovolence is my stock market prowess and my writing. Without any of those I am merely a pleb eating Italian ices, just like the lot of you, on a hot summer’s night.

In short, be grateful a person, such as “The Fly” exists, and instead of being envious of him, just know that your lives are most likely happier and better, so pity him and offer words of fantastic encouragement.

In other news, stocks are fucking crashing thru the floor boards today and I intend to be on the road for the final hours of trade. I am leaning towards a long directional bet, for various reasons. If you’re in Exodus, I’ll likely pop into the Pelican Room to relay by findings. Trade alerts will not be going out today.


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China Escalates Trade War : “On 1-10 Scale, It’s An 11”

Random shots post.

Trump is accusing China of manipulating their currency.

The Yuan is down 1.6% v the dollar today.

The US 10yr is down 10bps to 1.75%!

Gold +1.5% to $1,480

The Euro is +0.8% vs the dollar because the assumption is more Fed cuts.

BTC is +11% because people fear capital flight out of China.

A view from Wall Street.

Cowen, Chris Krueger

Krueger called China’s retaliation “massive,” adding that “on a scale of 1-10, it’s an 11.” He cited the Chinese government calling on state buyers to halt U.S. agricultural purchases, while there’s “increased anecdotal evidence that the Chinese government is tightening its overview of foreign firms.”

“While there were measures that could have been chosen with larger direct effects on supply chains, the announcements from Beijing represent a direct shot at the White House and seem designed for maximum political impact,” Krueger said. “ We expect a quick (and possibly intemperate) response from the White House, and consequently expect a more rapid escalation of trade tensions.”

“There now will be increased expectations that the Fed will cut again in September to offset the drag caused by this escalation in the trade war,” he added. “Such moves will only be a partial, lagged offset to the recessionary headwinds a cycle of retaliation would cause.”

BMO, Ian Lyngen

“The wait is over for those wondering how Beijing would respond to Trump’s recent tariff announcement,” BMO said. “The result: the yuan was allowed to depreciate well beyond 7.0.”

Instructing state-owned Chinese firms to halt U.S. crop purchases triggered “the obligatory flight-to-quality,” which pushed 10-year yields to 1.74%, with two-year yields keeping pace. That was “an impressive move that suggests August will not experience the traditional summer doldrums. Who needs vacation anyway?”

“The most significant unknown at this moment,” Lyngen added, “is how much further the yuan will be allowed to fall given that it’s already the weakest since 2008.”

Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck (bank analyst)

Bank investors’ eyes were “glued to the yield curve last week,” with Trump’s tariff tweet on Thursday, Graseck wrote in a note. They’re now asking about Morgan Stanley’s net interest margin (NIM), outlook.

Graseck didn’t change her NIM assumptions — yet. “We bake one additional cut of 25 basis points in 2019 in-line with our economist, and bake in the 10-year at 1.75% by mid 2020,” she wrote. She’ll update NIM and earnings per share estimates “if it looks like these trade tariffs are going through as September approaches.”

Morgan Stanley, Michael Zezas (policy strategist)

“The dynamics of U.S.-China negotiation and macro conditions mean the next round of tariffs will likely be enacted, and investors are likely to behave as if further escalation will follow in 2019 until markets price in impacts,” Zezas wrote. “This supports our core view of weaker growth and skews the Fed dovish.”

Zezas sees incentives for the U.S. to escalate quickly. If the administration “understands the Fed’s trade policy reaction function, then it may also perceive that a more rapid escalation could deliver one or more of three beneficial points ahead of the 2020 election: 1) A quicker, potentially more aggressive Fed stimulus response that could help the economy heading into the election; 2) More time to re-frame the potential economic downside; and 3) A major concession by China (not our base case, but it is, of course, a possibility).”

Veda, Henrietta Treyz

“The U.S. and China are moving into one of their most aggressive phases yet in the year-plus long trade war and we fully expect things to escalate from here,” Treyz wrote in a note.

Treyz added that China’s ability to quickly adjust their currency is an advantage they have over the U.S. that “goes to the heart of the issue for the Trump administration.” The administration may view China’s communist regime as a “systemic advantage” versus “free markets and democracy” in the U.S., as the Chinese can “subsidize domestic industry, quickly, enact lower tax rates and provide stimulus.”

Furthermore, her conversations with Republicans point to the belief that “China’s economy is on the brink of collapse,” she said, with turmoil in Hong Kong “considered evidence of an organic domestic uprising that many believe the Chinese government cannot contain.” Republicans may also believe Trump will “galvanize” his base behind him, while attracting “anti-trade and union Democrats in the Rust Belt as he takes on the mantle of a war time president going into 2020 by engaging in this trade war.”

(Updates shares in 2nd paragraph. Adds analyst comment from Veda.)

–With assistance from Ryan Vlastelica.

Markets are -2.5%, terrible, but not end of days decline. This could very well be the beginning of an extended drop too, however, so be on guard for another leg lower into the close.

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“The Fly” Profits While You Wallow in Wanton Misery

Painful open for longs. I was supremely positioned in a sundry of gold and inverse ETFs and decided to take the profits, in order to lock in gains and/or avoid any intra-day chicanery that might develop as I run my chores.

DRIP +11%
SOXS +8%
HL +7%
PAAS +22%
IAG +20%

It’s worth noting, I will have 15% miner exposure (I had 30%) and cash is now 55%.

Why am I taking profits if stocks are heading lower and gold is heading higher?

One in the hand is always better than two in the bush. I can buy all of this shit back towards the end of the day, if so inclined.

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Far be it from me to offer any advice outside the world of where my expertise resides. But as a leader here on the internets — I’d be remiss not to remind you to ignore everything you cannot control. My opinions on politics and how you should live are meaningless, as I am powerless to enact control. I am, however, powerful in the field of finance and can easily sway public opinion to shit or salute markets. The way a domino effect works is simple and easy to do. I’m not avoiding news here, but instead purposely choosing to discuss issues that can make your life better.

As I get older I realize my previous errors, most of which having to do with wasting time. I am not here to fuck around and dick-off with jackasses to discuss the democratic debates or gun control. “The Fly” is a blunt instrument of financial winship, sovereign in the field of financial blogging, and couldn’t give a fuck about what a fellow financial advisor thinks about social issues.

I am here to tell you, rather directly, that in precisely 12 hours from now — your portfolios will be under direct fire and immersed in flames — ruined by junior at the trading turrets, sending you comically seaworthy into a wave of misery.

I, on the other had, find myself hedged heavily in SOXS, TZA and DRIP. I didn’t tell you that on Friday — because picks are for closers only — members of the Exodus platform.

Good night and good day.

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Here Are the Top Rated ETFs in Exodus Now

Will markets get destroyed tomorrow or will we bounce? Whatever might happen, the top rated ETFs are now defensive or bearish, indicative of the late week squall which overtook Wall.

Did you hedge, raise cash or short — or did you buy the dip?

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