18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,972 Blog Posts

Stocks Rise; Fly Loses (For Now)

I started off the day entreated to QLYS knifing lower by 14%. I booked that loss and then scurried about my day, to and fro. After I fro’d, I to’d some more.

Gold was REJECTED at 1320 and is now fishing lower. I envy those with the luxury of being a luddite, simply FANG banging and going about the course of their days, totally inept and without a stratagem.

Having said that, I am down in my trading account, up 35bps in my Quant account, and generally ribald in my opinions of all of you — caitiffs and malefactors — siphoning all that is good and intelligent from me without even a nod of the top hat. To think that I spend inordinate sums of my time blogging into the wind — an easterly wind that is both cold and venomous, is somewhat ridiculous and amazing. Twenty years ago, I had BIG ASS DREAMS (BAD) of being Gordon Gekko — kicking fuckers like Bud Fox out of my office for offering me dog shit stock ideas. I’d smoke cigars at the desk and take dielectic measurements of my blood pressure to save me a visit to the doctor, both efficient and cost effective. I’d have my head trader actively raping others in the open market and I’d commit to grave acts of hostile actions against any company that is vulnerable to my hegemony.

Instead of all that shit…here I am dicking away on the olde computer — trading amidst my enemies — having a grande olde fucking time.

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Bill ‘Montauk’ Ackman is Back; Pershing Square +25% YTD

What the fuck is Bill up to these days? He’s up to destroying the market and crushing every single faggot investment advisor, salty fuckers, who’ve been dragging him thru the mud the past decade: that’s what he’s up to, pal.

So what Bill has been dogged for the past decade — losing high key televised battles with the geriatric Icahn.

But now he’s back and even though +25% in a little more than a month might seem insane to some of you — like ‘how the fuck does a $10b fund move so much in a single month anyway?’ — SHUT THE FUCK UP — you needn’t concern yourselves with the games that big money fund managers play. Their sand box is their oyster and their oyster is their cocks.

Allegedly, Bill made most of his money in MDLZ, CMG and SBUX — but it doesn’t matter what he owns. The only thing that matters is +25% and your stupid fund is barely up and not domiciled in a beautiful self owned new building in Hell’s Kitchen.

Sure, Bill is probably still salty AF at his fellow hedge funders for the now infamous ill fated cycle drive to Montauk. But that shit is behind him now and he’s making power moves — pissing and shitting on the competition — making investment advisors with shit AUM feel like the pissants they truly are.

Now with Bill’s resurgence back into the winners circle, we should expect more media appearances, lectures, and wonderful high drama stakes to be announced — stocks to bet for and against — battles to be won. Gone are the days of getting balls roasted in Mexican protein shake companies or old lady department stores led by Apple leftovers.

This is 2019, a new era of gilded returns and decadent abundance.

Congratulations to William Albert Ackman on your success and I’m very sorry for having been forced by my ill tempered humor that caused me to make fun of you a few dozen times the past decade or so.

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Damned If You Do; Damned If You Don’t

Earnings season, the quintessential fuckery of all investing fuckeries. The temptation to ride thru one of these calls — because God loves us specifically and because our genius demands reward, is always present and palpable.

Case in point, I sold PYX the just before earnings — because it was the right thing to do for me, at the time. I was in PYX for a trade, not earnings, and didn’t feel like gambling.

The result?

PYX beat and shot higher by 30% the next day.

Seeing this beat, I demurred my cautiousness and decided to hold another one of my holdings into earnings last night. That stock was QLYS.

I didn’t have an edge, or even an affinity for the stock. It was a trade, but because it was my stock, and my genius, I felt, well, if PYX could do it — why can’t QLYS?

The result?

QLYS is shooting lower by 16% in the pre-market.


I’ll be selling out at the loss this morning.

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Futures are up more than 100. I’m keeping an eye on Bitcoin and cryptos here, believing they might be bottoming out and fixing to lick higher. On the issue of gold — this shit is coiling. Consider the fact the dollar has been strong AF, yet gold is vacillating near the highs.

This level, right here and right now, has been resistance for 6 mother-fucking years. Do you hear me you fucking faggots?

The bull case?


Watch the TIPs for evidence of big money hedging against the specter of it. Consider wage growth now is strongest in a decade and we’re not coming off a trough, as was the case in 2009. We’re in a bull market, an extended one, yet wage growth is only now busting loose.

Following this train of thought, also considering demographic, millennial faggots will be fast approaching family age and they can’t afford shit in the city. So they’ll opt for some grass and large square footage.

What am I suggesting?

For the bull market in housing to extend to the suburbs next, helping shares of TOL, BZH, and material plays like EXP, MAS, and TREX. Why the fuck not?

Tell me why the homies can’t run too?

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If You’re Short Now — Prepare to Lose MOAR

Listen to me as if I was screaming into your face.

You have no basis to be short here. Markets have all but told you it’s going higher, even after today’s big cocked move to the upside. As a point in fact, often times larger runs occur in esoteric names after massive melt ups. Today advertises to the normies that money is being made and they’ll follow in like lemmings tomorrow.

I told you earlier, big ass cash positions await on the sidelines. I’d like to highlight some of my ideas, but feel increasingly restricted due to my Capstone obligations. Nevertheless, I can readily advise you to be long and in stocks that correlate with the market.

It’s worth noting, FUCKTARDS are still on Twitter talking about topping out and those people will have their faces punched off soon, and strongly. It’s one thing to be a bear, a whole other thing to walk down your portfolio.

My largest position are still gold and it’s not participating today, which is fine. The melt up in stocks is causing defensive positions to be liquidated; but the bull case in gold has never been stronger, literally — when taking into account the record level of wage growth in the country now and the idea that inflation might, finally, be something to worry about.

Regrettably, I sold PYX yesterday, ahead of earnings — because I had no edge. The stock is up 30% today and sometimes that’s how it goes. That stock, in my opinion, will continue higher, at least until tomorrow, as momo traders try to catch a glimpse of greatness and sojourn into profit.

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Investors Are Cashed Up and Assed Out

Anyone over the age of 35 remembers the market crashes of yesteryear — the malevolent crashes of a comical nature that ruined so many people and their households. Kids getting tossed out of their lambos — because they’ve been repossessed. Wives being told her Hermes collection needed to be sold on Ebay, in order to pay for the boat. Husbands being told the boat had to go in order to pay for the mortgage. The bank telling everyone to GTFO because the house was being foreclosed and they intended to sell it.

It was bad.

The recent downturn forced many people my age and older to cash up. Now, according to Bank of America, those same people are assed out.

source: CNBC

Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch’s latest fund manager survey, which gauges where global pros are positioning, showed the biggest net overweight position in cash since January 2009, just two months before the market bottomed and set up the longest bull run in Wall Street history.

Sentiment moving to extremes has been a reliable contrarian indicator for market historically. The January stock market rally coincided with a cash allocation of 4.8 percent, which is above the 4.5 percent threshold that Bank of America considers a bullish sign.

Markets are spinning higher and nothing can stop it. Oil is up. Junk bonds are up. Industrials are leading the way, optimistic about a China deal.

I have no warnings for you and only happy tidings. Go correlate with the market and make some money.

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It appears the morons in Congress have agreed to not do much for Trump’s great big beautiful wall — only lending the President a morsel of money from which to play with. Instead of the pittance $5.7b he requested, which would pay for about 15 feet of wall, Congress might permit $1.4b to escape from their clutches.

Trump, naturally, will agree to these terms — because building a wall now is a stupid thing to do. He’d much rather drag it out for the 2020 campaigns, using it as a lightening rod to stoke up fanaticism in the trailer park neighborhoods of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional negotiators announced an agreement late Monday to prevent a government shutdown and finance construction of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, overcoming a late-stage hang-up over immigration enforcement issues that had threatened to scuttle the talks.

Republicans were desperate to avoid another bruising shutdown. They tentatively agreed to far less money for President Donald Trump’s border wall than the White House’s $5.7 billion wish list, settling for a figure of about $1.4 billion, according to a senior congressional aide.

“We reached an agreement in principle between us on all the homeland security and the other six bills,” said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.).

On this news, Nasdaq futures are +24.

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Market Proved Nothing Today — Bored to Death in Jack-Shit Session

Good news for those of you keeping track.

Over at Casa Del Fly — the house is now brimming with the hottest and the best water money could buy. The coldest water can be found here — freely flowing from the disgusting Mercer County reservoir, which is laden heavily with lead and other toxic materials. As a point in fact, the Mercer County water is so bad — it’s poisonous. More than that, it destroys all of the copper pipes in the walls, causing floods throughout the county. The plumbers love the water — because it keeps them busy. I hate the water — because it causes a sundry of problems and also because it’s poisonous.

The house is now screaming with the tunes of Stan Getz, arguably the best jazz musician of all time.

I didn’t do much today, other than sell PYX for breakeven. I’m going thru a spate of bad trades again, mostly small and non-eventful — but that’s the point — uneventful. In the big scheme of things, unless you’re turning over your portfolio on a constant basis, expect to make little whilst the market consolidates and trades sideways.

It’s my belief markets will remain held down thru March. In the meantime, gold is in the bull market and poised to break higher. Today was a down day — but those down days, at least recently, have proven to be excellent entry points.

UPDATE: Smartphone foundry — AMRK warned.

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.04 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.08; revenues fell 5.8% year/year to $1.08 bln vs the $1.06 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Reports gross margin of 16.9%.

Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of ($0.27)-($0.07) vs. $0.03 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $840-$920 mln vs. $1.02 bln two analyst estimate. Sees gross margin of 9-13%.

Commentary: “Our first quarter revenue guidance reflects the inventory correction currently underway in the smartphone market.”

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Not Doing Shit Until Gold Starts Popping Off

Day 3 at Cade de Fly and still no water to speak of. Well, technically speaking, I can enjoy the comforts of only cold water — but then I need to go downstairs into the grim cellar and fish the water out of the run off pan. I do this with a white plastic cup into a red bucket, and then dump it into the sink. The new water heater has been delivered and very soon the plumber will sashay into the house, fantastically, and pull out his wrench and tighten all of the bolts, fasten all of the wires, and connect all of the pipes to provide House Fly with an endless flow of contaminated water, heavy with minerals and lead — because the Trenton Water Works board is heavy with cromagnons who don’t know the first thing about managing a water supply.

As I wait, the sounds of Glen Gray echo throughout the house and my fucking dogs bark, intermittently at random objects seen in the distance. Nothing today has encouraged me to make changes, so I’m sitting pat — on my hands, waiting for gold to bust loose higher — cracking jaws and spines clean off the bodies of bears.

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WTI Leads Stocks By the Nose Lower

This is a very simple thing to understand — even a moron can do it.

Markets are subservient to WTI. Presently, WTI is going lower, now down by 2%. This has caused slight weakness in the junk bond markets and of course stocks. Conversely, gold is firming. One cannot take a solid gold bar punch to the face and say it didn’t hurt.

Everything is too small for it to count. This is like taking the opinions of children, or millennials, seriously. The markets are flat. Basing an opinion off a flat bland nothing is more than stupid; bog standard it is cravenous!

As my trading account does nothing, my Quant is +35bps. How and why is it outperforming? Because it’s programmed to do so. Join Exodus you rotten louses and I will teach you.

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