FATHER YIELD CURVE: PREPARE FOR RECESSION

The Father of the Yield Curve is warning Americans to batten down the hatches and prepare for recession.

Duke University professor Campbell Harvey says the bond yield curve is “flashing code red” for a recession.

Harvey encourages investors, business executives and consumers to prepare now.

How does one prep for a sharp economic downturn? Should one collect evidence against his employer to blackmail him/her in the event of a firing? If one were to gather some strong evidence, one could certainly protect one’s job against termination.

What does it mean to be in recession?

I bet you millennial and zoomer retards haven’t the slightest idea what it would entail. Well imagine a world that behaved like Bitcoin in 2018, or perhaps an avocado toast that has already browned and gone bad. Would you eat said toast? Probably not. Or how about a pineapple that looks nice on the outside, but after cutting into it you find out the pineapple is in fact bad. This is a recession, small people of the internets.

Then you get the panics, people freaking out that the recession can turn into something worse and dreadful — a depression. During a depression there aren’t any avocados left in the store, because the dust bowls wiped out the crop. The only White Claw flavor left is grapefruit and the pineapples are only in canned form. As a matter of fact, during a depression, organic foods will become extinct and beef will be laden, mind you, with harmful chemicals — as ranchers “treat” the meat to last longer. The halcyon days of grass fed beef would be nothing short of a wistful memory of better days.

Markets will descend into the pits of hell, festooned with margin calls and financial advisors overseeing their businesses destroyed from the fires.

The way we would extricate ourselves from said depression would be war. The blood of the many will be used to nourish the tree of capitalism, paving the way for a new era of crony capitalism and grift.

In short, prepare young lads, prepare for the worst of times.

I should’ve listened to my inside voice and stayed in a larger cash position. Now I stand to get BOGGED the fuck out in an array of new longs, thanks to a China trade deal that was never going to happen in the first place.

Now for the headlines.

Chinese state television CCTV said it was suspending the current broadcast arrangements for the NBA’s pre-season games in China.

S&P Futures down 21 points; Bloomberg now reporting that the Trump administration is considering limiting China stocks in US government pension funds

Let me help you put that frown upside down. No one likes waking up to bad news and the specter of losing money. I bring you entertainment on an industrial scale now. I bring you Hillary vs Donald, Deathmatch — part 2. Loser goes to jail edition.

BREAKING: Hillary Clinton ‘thinking about’ running for President in 2020, according to multiple sources

— BNL NEWS (@BreakingNLive) October 7, 2019

Well well well, color me surprised. The good folks in our ‘scientific community’ have just revealed something that no one saw coming: VAPING CAUSES FUCKING CANCER!

This business pivot will be studied in Universities around the world for the next millennia. The timeline works wonderfully. Bear with me as I assemble my marbles.

Early 2000s, young stockbroker Fly sops up juicy tobacco settlement bonds by NY State and other states, who settled with BIG TOBACCO for fucking billions upon billions. States took the money and ran, and issued bonds secured by these payments. Everyone got rich, me, the state, BIG TOBACCO, except Joe Cancer who could no longer sue BIG TOBACCO because the case had been settled.

Cigarettes get BTFO in NYC and other places around the country, followed by a groundswell of health moments in America surrounded by the idea that organic food and doing without harsh chemicals might improve quality of life.

This movement led to a greater awareness of human health and total rejection of the cigarette. By 2010, only fucking retards and loser boomers smoked.

ENTER BANANA FLAVORED VAPES/E-CIGS.

BIG TOBACCO couldn’t just make money by giving Europeans cancer anymore, so they invested in new nicotine products, one’s with banana and rainbow flavors that appealed to Johnny Hop Scotch around the schoolyard. They made it look like a cool electronic device, like a fucking iPhone, permitted you to charge it and everything. Johnny Hop Scotch and Sally Snow Blower sopped it up and gave it to their friends and they all become cool in school. A few years later, the government, desperate for cash, LEGALIZED POT — while heavily promoting the health benefits of cannabis, a drug that had led to the incarceration of thousands for decades. By 2014, pot + e-cigs became the coolest shit in the world, attracting scores of zoomers to share inside the schoolyard and urinals.

.@CNBC: E-cigarette vapor causes lung cancer and potentially bladder cancer in mice, damaging their DNA and leading researchers at New York University to conclude that vaping is likely “very harmful” to humans as well. "E-cigarettes are bad news,” according to the lead researcher

— Bill Griffeth (@BillGriffeth) October 7, 2019

Last year if you weren’t vaping THC — you simply were a fucking boomer retard who deserved to die of lung cancer. Vaping THC was going to increase cock sizes, cure cancer, baldness, and turn incels into irresistible sex maniacs.

Until people started getting sick in 2019. Anyone with a basic science background would tell you there was no way of knowing if vaping was healthy or not, since humans were the ultimate guinea pig and it’d take years to find out. Well, it took about 7 years to find out vaping causes cancer — and could kill you a lot fucking quicker than the slow burn of lung cancer, by way of filterless Pall Malls.

So now, with upwards of 75% of gen Z zoomers smoking e-cigs, and a burgeoning health crisis crashing into the lungs of America, these little shitheads are quickly switching for the safest option to ingest nicotine, and of course the coolest one — smoking cigarettes.

Phillip Morris wins again.

This is not a market for the faint of heart. Two minutes before the following news was released, I had gone long stock. I am of course troubled by this minor disruption and naturally perturbed by the downward trend, but I fight on — backs against the current.

FOX: CHINESE COMMERCE MINISTRY SAYS WHAT IS NOT IN THE TABLE AND NEVER WILL BE IS CHANGES TO THEIR LAWS TO PROTECT INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY. THE COMMERCE MINISTRY TELLING US THAT THE CHINESE WILL DEAL WITH INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY THEFT THROUGH ADMINISTRATIVE REGULATIONS

My original assumption was for a horrible tape, based upon my logical conclusion that Pelosi and Co. were retarded and malevolent in attempting to remove the Orange Lunatic from office — by any means necessary. Then I woke up in a better mood and went long stocks. Truthfully, I am second and third guessing almost everything. I do not have a firm handle on the near term direction and would caution you from thinking you know this tape — because you don’t. Its florid display of inequity is somewhat jarring for the uninitiated. But veterans of this shit-show understand, this is just par for the course.

The President may be heading to jail and China into the dumpster, but the market doesn’t want to trade lower. As such, one with a keen eye for preservation of capital should steer clear of selling short. This is a tape for gentlemen with cash only. If you’re the type of person to get nervous or unable to trade in rapid succession — you would be wise to avoid this tape altogether.

If you see rates moving higher, avoid gold — believe me. Also, and this is just be speaking now — fuck oil. If you want to make money trading, reduce the risk and just buy some tech.

As for me, fucking exhausted and just woke up from a nap. I have 45% cash in my trading and will buy something shortly.

Morning lads.

As you well know, I have my car back from the shop driving wonderfully. It feels like a brand new car. So, as nature would have it, now my dog is broken.

Over the past few days, after a brief noshing of some BBQ meat, my fucking dog has been shitting the stairs, late at night — a morning treat if you will — for yours truly. It’s liquid shit and always on the 2nd step of each landing, perhaps some fibonacci level she found to be of great interest. Last night I walked her outside for more than an hour, here and there — I walked her everywhere. Nothing.

At 4am, she entered my room, pacing back and forth, so, begrudgingly, at the vampire time of night — I took her for a walk around the neighborhood and she went — obviously an upset stomach. In my head, I hated her and hoped a larger mammal would appear and eat her — but how mad could I get at a sick animal. What am I if not a generous, empathetic, kind individual.

So then I tucked her onto the end of daughter’s bed and said “Au Revoir Shoshanna!” and attempted sleep, only to be rapidly awoken by my fire alarm system chirping without cause.

I got to sleep an hour and woke up for the kids, only to be entreated to a 2nd step filled with shit again, obviously a great emergency the whole hour my dog had alone, which I just rapaciously cleaned up and addressed.

F.M.L.

Let’s be frank. There is zero chance of Trump landing a trade deal with China with his Presidency on the ropes. And maybe that’s the 3D chess Pelosi is playing — fucking America’s economy — leaving no survivors.  With Trump big titted bull market getting grabbed by the pussy, he’s a fucking goner.

The catamites at BBG are picking up on this narrative this evening.

You’re gonna want to throw an audible out there and sell short stocks and soon. With the China trade deal dead, and whistleblowers coming out from the fucking woodworks, markets are about to get REAL interesting and volatile. Unlike Nixon, Trump is old and very rich and doesn’t like to be told what to do. I’m pretty sure he’d burn the entire country down in order to prevent his presidency being ended abruptly by people out to get him.

Futures are down 35 Nasdaqs, but that should accelerate to the downside this week and also gold should catch a sharp bid.

This is the type of informercial you like to watch at 3am. I went to walk my dogs this morning and they shot out the house like madmen, lunging on their extended leashes at some poor women and her fluffy dog. My coyote was fucking howling at them, drooling and attempting to eat both the owner and her stuffed animal. It was a woefully embarrassing situation for Le Fly, who is this go around attempting to be kind towards his neighbors, Southern Gent style. Alas, my fucking dogs have brought with them a malevolent evil that was inherent and always present in NJ.

I got my Benz out from the dealership, cost me $10k for a brake job and the old CAM SHAFT fix. No big deal.

On the issue of Exodus 2.0, we have data now going back decades, streaming in real time, and our algorithms auto-fixed to charts. Major win.

The Exodus Intelligence will be applied to portfolio functionality and every stock and ETF in the system, in order to present historical context. In other words, we will show you what your stock had done from 1 to 10 trading days while trading at the real time algorithmic rank Exodus applies. If AAPL is given a technical score of 3.55 now, we will be able to show you in real time what Apple had done in its history from a 1-10 day time frame. This is important, because, as I’ve shown you in numerous posts, history rhymes and human behavior is repeatable and as such predictable.

For example.

I just sold out from JNUG for a 3.9% gain. This is what I do, every single day — feeding the masses fish because they’re hungry, clamoring for sustenance.

Here are my last 10 trades.

TVIX +2.2%,
TVIX +6.6%
TVIX +4.7%
TVIX +8.22%
TZA +4.7%
(YANG -5.1%)
TQQQ +1.85%
(ROKU -3.5%)
MU +2.3%
JNUG +3.9%

Now post yours.

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

Moving on, I bought a bunch of stocks into the bell, 45% cash, winning all the fucking time.

HAGW.

We were oversold, as indicated by Exodus on Wednesday and now we’re working off that. Typically the oversold condition lasts about 10 days, so one should expect to make even more coin next week.

I ran into a buzzsaw with a ROKU trade gone awry yesterday and booked a 3.5% loss today. I do not have patience for down stocks on big up days. I also took profits on MU, bought yesterday, for a gain of 2.3%.

Honestly, I do not have an appetite for a lot of risk here. I feel the market can run and it should — but there is so much fucking news out there that could go wrong, I’d rather err on the side of caution. Bear in mind, I am fully long in my Quant, hedged by a 15% weighting in GLD — constituting 75% of my liquid assets. The other 25% is what I trade with and that’s what I have mostly in cash. I might buy a few stocks into the bell, but I doubt I’ll have less than 50% cash after it’s all said and done.

Big weekend planned at House Fly. My son is flying in from school and I got my fucking car back from the dealership, $10k in total. Fucking shit. I’m having a fine day, albeit a little lethargic. Lots of scrubbing to partake in later on today. Lots of toil and industry.

If I don’t update this blog later, have a nice weekend and be sure to avoid fucking yourselves into the close.