18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,896 Blog Posts

Do Not Sell Short into Turkey Week

Interestingly, I am partaking in a mini Thanksgiving tonight, since my mother is visiting and leaving on Sunday. I will be presiding over affairs in the kitchen, cooking a turkey breast, stuffing, candied sweet potatoes, mashed potatoes, cranned berry sauce, and of course gravy. Wine will not be served, since House Fly is now dry town, bereft of alcoholic beverages until the summer.

The market did exactly what it was supposed to do this week, faking out the shorts every step of the way.

My last 5 trades.

SRPT +2.77%
CDLX +1.3%
NET +2.3%
GRUB +1.92%
MNK +3.2%

I’ve been harangued with small fish this month, beguiled by small winners and it’s a little frustrating. But life is frustrating and one cannot get flummoxed by the volatility of it — but instead I will weigh into it and apply pressure and push the envelope and create my own narrative thru brute force.

If you’re reading this and you had a bad week, betting it all on XYZ and got zeroed the fuck out — find solace in knowing there are men like me out there — perfectly willing to feed you fish. I do not pretend to want to teach you anything, nor will I make you a better trader — only a better follower. Life is simpler this way. Delegation thru competence is the fastest way to see results. Why, you wouldn’t try to redo your entire kitchen without having a lifetime of experience in the trade, would you? And if you did, you’d be embarrassed by the results — creating a rift between you and your wife, loved ones making fun of you during gatherings — leading to an unhappy life.

Spare yourself the humiliation and eventual divorce, join Exodus and eat the fish.

Enjoy your weekend.

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The Big Dogs Are Heavily Short the Market — What Does it Mean For You?

A few headlines for you.

The reported wager placed by Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates would pay off for the firm if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 (or both) decline.

The Wall Street Journal report says the bet uses put options assembled over months by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

“We have no positions that are intended to either hedge or bet on any potential political developments in the U.S.,” Bridgewater tells CNBC.

Activist investor Carl Icahn, likely the largest short seller of mall debt, stands to gain $400 million or more if mall owners can’t pay or service their debt, traders told The Wall Street Journal.

In 2019, more than 9,100 stores have closed across the country, according to Bank of America, which believes this year’s number is the highest of any single year.

Mall closures alone have reached 4,087 this year, a 140% increase year over year from the 1,696 closures in 2018, according to Bank of America.

If interest rates have bottomed and are heading back up, this could exacerbate things for mall owners, further helping Icahn’s trade.

I recall back in 2014 when I got smashed in SAAS stocks — Einhorn started a ‘Bubble Basket’ to bet against high valuation stocks. During that year, I believe at the SALT conference, David Tepper came out cautious on stocks and on that news — stocks got rocked. Since then the QQQ is +100% and Einhorn’s fund is in shambles. You should know the mindset of a billionaire — one of craven and indecorous narcissist, mostly unable to be amenable with society — stuck in the bubbles of their own making surrounded by sycophantic yes men who only serve to further delude their idealism and cast their minds further out into a sea of rabble. These people have noodles for brains, soft and weak from years of being coddled and no longer possess the qualities that made them billionaires in the first place.

They’re like the gangster rapper you loved during his first album, but lost that energy in the subsequent albums because he was no longer poor and couldn’t speak to your soul like he did before. Fuck billionaires (Extra Bernie Sanders).

Markets are soft because it’s a Friday and the government is Andrew Johnson’ing Trump. Plus anyway, we’ve risen quite a lot this year.

I sold the following stocks this morning.

CDLX +1.3%
NET +2.3%
GRUB +1.92%

The CDLX is especially fulfilling because it was a large loss that I doubled down on yesterday. It bounced immediately after I bought it and it continued higher today — making the trade a winner. There are few things as satisfying as turning a bad trade good.

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Mixed Bag — Spent the Day Discussing 90s Fashion

I sold SRPT for a 2.7% gain, and I also bought 5 more stocks — one of which was an average down. Other than that, I had a pretty meaningless day, both listless and moribund. Inside the Pelican Room, we discussed important topics, such as 90s styles in garments, from giant polo logos to cross colors clown jeans. I am ashamed at how I used to dress myself, clad in the gaudiest of colors and fabrics. These days I simply walk my halls in a robe and slippers, pipe clenched between my teeth, yelling at people online.

It should be noted, my German counterpart is working tirelessly on Exodus 2.0, aka Stocklabs. He had promised me a working beta by 12/1, but I seriously doubt it could be done. If he fails to produce a working beta, he promised to saw off both of his arms, terms that I gratefully accepted.

Click onto the link above and sign up for the beta trial. The more people who sign up the greater pressure he’s under.

Markets were soft — but I’m not concerned. Tomorrow is a Friday and it’s possible we can slide lower. But even if we did, no way I am shorting into National Festival week. As we speak, large mouthed Americans are preparing to ingest massive amounts of sweet potatoes and greened beans and pecan pies. There is little in the way of wanton degeneracy and feel good increases in share prices.

Off to take an afternoon shower.

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This Sell Off is All Wrong; America Isn’t Ripe For Collapse Just Yet

So stocks are lower, but oil is up? Also, bond yields are up — and gold is lower? No, that is not the way sell offs happen and I cannot, for the life of me, take this seriously — just one week before Thanksgiving. For the love of God, stuffing will soon be consumed at an industrial rate. Pecan pies and larger than life goblets of wine poured down the gullets of millions of Americans — all fat and stupid, watching the ballgame on the television. You’d have to be a supreme moron to believe, mind you, that stocks pose any significant danger from now until then.

HOWEVER, the day after is Black Friday, which has nothing to do with African Americans — but instead it means that people black out fighting for toasters and microwave ovens — in order to secure discounts at large chain stores. To secure these savings, people live outside these stores for a week, live in tents on the street — just so they can barge in first into Best Buy or Walmart and earn the right to grab that very first toaster. This of course is the result of decades of eugenics, which has presided over the decrease of IQ inside of America. We’ve gone from a competent people, sporting IQs in the range of 100-110 to something in the order of 90-99. This might seem like a small difference to the average pleb, but it means the difference between waiting online for a week outside in the cold and instead buying it online from the comforts of one’s home.

With the lowering of the national IQ, the tale end of the subjects now sport most heinous IQs, so low it makes them practically invalids who only know self-aggrandizement thru sex, drugs, and booze. As the next decades press on, we could expect even more of the same, as America becomes so stupid — it literally fucks itself into a jambox that deserves no extrication. It is at this point when the true collapse will come and the stock market will spiral all the way to zero. What you see in front of your eyes is an Empire in decline — the latter days of greatness now wearing away like the leather on an old steering wheel.

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The Devils At $SCHW in Talks to Acquire $AMTD

Let’s analyze the timeline of events that led us here.

SCHW reduces their commissions to zero, the first real online brokerage firm to do so (Robinhood doesn’t count) — BOGGING competitors like AMTD who rely heavily on commissions for their bottom line. Desperate to retain customers, AMTD follows suit and their stock gets fucking hammered as a result.

With the stocks down from its highs and the company scrambling to replace 25% of its revenues, SCHW steps in and bids to acquire AMTD.

Machiavellian plan complete.

AMTD is up ~30% in the pre-market.

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Falling for the Trade War News Is a Rookie Move

I have to head out now, still entertaining my mother who is here for a duration of 3 weeks. I bought a slew of stocks today, mostly in biotech — without reservations or thirst to hedge, mainly because I do not believe Americans should sell short her stocks ahead of National Festival. Frankly, and this goes without saying, it is unpatriotic, seditious, and the acts of barbarous men.

I will not lower my standards for the sake of profit. My motives are clear, to make money at all times — but I do draw a line in the sand barreling into Turkey and cranned berry sauce day. Only the mind of a child would surmise it to be a ‘good idea’ to sell short now. Let it be noted, “The Fly” is the adult in the room.

Stocks are rebounding sharply after FAKE NEWS reports of another ‘snag’ in the US-China trade deal negotiations. As such, I expect a full recovery, and so much more.

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The fuck out of here with this news flow already. We win the war, we lose the war — over and over again until our brains are mush and we believe nothing on the teevee.

Stocks see modest downtick on latest report suggesting the phase one trade deal between the US & China (ETF: FXI) may not be completed this year

Stocks are almost down 200 and I don’t give a fuck. I’m 35% cash and all of my stocks are up. I cannot and will not cede to the weakness inherent in the hearts of traders. We are long overdue a vicious sell off. But will such a tragedy befall us ahead of National Festival Day? I think not.

Nevertheless, a good mind is a strong one and a strong one knows it’s best to have cash reserves during periods of uncertainty, as is the case now — judging from all of the headlines — Trump to the stump and China is filled with liars.

Top picks: Gold, drugs.

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Biotech is the Only Game in Town

Aside from the provincial bounce in crude stocks today, there’s nothing else working except Biotech. Truthfully, that was a lie — there are other sectors worth perusing, namely SAAS, but it wouldn’t make for a strong headline. But it is true, biotechs are leading the fray, in spite of an overall weak market.

So do you chase into the melee and hope to make it out okay?

Yes, absolutely.

However, bear in mind there are insidious forces pushing these stocks higher. Typically only a few dozen trade with any reasonable volume; but now the whole sector is liquid. By the book, you should sell now if you’ve been holding onto them. If you’re buying now, understand that you are a bag holder and might end up in a vapor-lock trap, where only pikes could escape. When this sector stops rallying, the volume would have dried up and you will be CANG-banged with merciless sentimentalities.

I sold ALNY for a +5.2% gain. My best loss was taking PDD out yesterday for a 5% loss. Seeing it down 22% today makes my heart warm and reminds me to never trade into earning, lest I am privy to insider info.

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Biotech Lottery Tickets; Which is the Next One to Go?

Big fucking move out of KRTX the past two days. Basically the stock 10x and even went higher after a secondary offering was announced. Surreal shit. It all has the feel of end of cycle garbagio high stakes gambling from the last two guys at the table. Nevertheless, I am one of those guys and partook in a little chicanery into the close.
BIG FUCKING MOVERS in healthcare today. Some of them are recent IPO’s, thinly traded piece of shits — totally and unequivocally lottery tickets. Am I right?

Here are some that crossed my radar today.
MYOV +120%, ATNX +37%, FULC +30%, CABA +29%, MDCO +19%, CRSP +18%, CYAD +16%, CALA +16%, MGTA +16%, SRRK +14%, ODT +13%, ETNB +13%, PRVL +12%, DRNA +12%, WVE +12%, OSMT +12%, AXLA +12%, MTEM +12%, SDC+11%, XBIT +11%, ARQL +11%, LVGO +11%, AXSM +11%, CLVS +11%, TBIO +10%, BCYC +10%, NTLS +10%, EVEN +10%, ARDX +10%, GOSS +8%, NERV +8%.
Understand something, faggots, this is NOT normal trading behavior. This is arch- degenerate end of days final hurrah — fuck you — you’re dead shorts trading — designed to fuck shorts so hard — they’ll be motivated to build time machines, go back to their date of conception and abort themselves.

Choose your poison.

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A Few Random Notes on Life

We’re living in a post-modernist world, where men are women and women are men. No one knows what the fuck is going on, other than the all tranny hockey team is really strong and beats the shit out of the all girls. It should be noted here regularly that I am a firm believer in humanity, the good in people will always shine through. When I had hard times, there were friends and family who helped me — sometimes even strangers. Deep down we all know something is wrong, but we go along for the ride — because the calm equanimity is just fine and our lives are relatively acceptable.

Depression is running rampant amongst the younger generations because they’re getting fucking zapped with different algorithms, which are designed to confuse and weaken the backbone. Steel yourselves from this men and understand that you are the backbone and can never break, else everything will collapse. Trading is fun to me, but living is what I enjoy and I try to do it well. I was noticing too many alcoholic beverages around me, so I stopped drinking entirely. I said I’ll sustain from booze thru summer, but maybe longer. I don’t need it. I don’t need anything but air, food, and warmth.

My whole life I’ve been searching for truth, clarity in business, relationships, my role in this big mess. The truth is easier to find than you think. Do the right thing, not the thing you want to do because it feels good. If you’re living a life absent from regret then you’re living a good life. This will transfer over into ever facet of your life — even trading.

Got to head out now — I’ll continue this later.

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