iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,296 Blog Posts

OBSERVE THE CARNAGE

First of all let me just say — Stocklabs is now flagging oversold for the overall markets. Although the recent data isn’t all that encouraging, I’d be remiss after using these OS signals, quite successfully might I add, if I did not use them and position for a bounce. Some will argue “this time is different” but I rarely find that to ever be true or a valid argument to deviate from a planned path. Whilst there have been missed oversold signals in the past, usually at a time when things break in the world or the market, again, I’d be doing myself a disservice if I did not at least try the long side at this juncture.

Also, and this is purely anecdotal, the website traffic on Friday was +245% over last year, +96% for the week. I typically only see traffic spikes like this during periods of duress and it almost always leads to a bottoming process in markets.

That being said, I was doing some research and wanted to share some beaten down ideas.


Hardest Hit Industries, 1Mo

The next bit of data are hardest hit stocks the past month with a minimum dividend yield of 2.5%

Next are hardest hit stocks, min cap of $5b, no divvy filter.

I find little reason to play individual stocks now, unless of course the aim is to hedge in some way or attempt to play some sector that might greatly outperform, such as oil and gas. In my experience, the first move is usually a false one, so expect the initial rally to fade and then disappoint — which will lead to a true bottom where larger returns might be enjoyed.

Although stocks have sharply decreased in value the past month, fear has largely been absent due to the spoiled rotten nature of participants, who have been programmed to believe the Fed will save them. This time around, no one is coming to save you and the only way out is through the fires.

Once we get through this oversold condition and markets bounce, I will once again take on a bearish disposition — which will hopefully coincide with the complete destruction of western finance as we know it.

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BLACK MONDAY LOOMS *

Early this morning rumors of President Xi being placed under house arrest made the tin foilers on Twitter go fucking nuts. Then we had rumors of war and Blinken meddling in Iranian affairs — providing “INTERNET ACCESS” for those who wish to overthrow the Iranian govt. It’s an endless stream of fuckery and on par with crisis.

At the core of this current squall is DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, best seen in FX market crosses in Europe. The dollar is at 37 year highs against the pound and drilling the Euro on a daily basis. We also saw USD/CNY cross at 2015 crisis lows.

Let’s not forget SHMITA.

I had 65% cash into this absolute carnage and had been adding to just 3 stocks: TNA, BTU, DK. I got drilled to the tune of 2.8% today and I took a 10% UVIX position at the close, in order to prevent a truly horrible Monday crash opening. If God is great, American stocks will crater on Monday to the tune of 25%. Under the present conditions, the VIX will skyrocket and my losses will be manageable. I am most keenly interested in buying and drinking the blood of those letting out. At my core, I am a Vampire and hail from Transylvania when markets careen lower. It’s important to never panic and always keep composure. But most importantly, it’s imperative to NOT be fooled and go all in for some final battle as if this were a fucking movie.

LISTEN TO ME: PAX AMERICAN IS OVER. You will have plenty of time to SHORT THIS SHIT DOWN TO THE 2009 lows, 82% down from here. But before that happens, we’ll have a symphony of true believers, late empire shills, running out into the hills to pick strawberries for their villagers. On their way back with baskets of fruit and cream, their arms will be cut off.

The hills will bleed.

HAGW!

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STOCKLABS HAS THE OILS MOST OVERSOLD SINCE COVID LOWS

Remember when oil was negative $37 per barrel? The price action isn’t as bad — but algorithmically today’s pin action is on par.

I do not ascribe to the fact that “this time is different.” I am hammered for -2.8% with 63% cash. My stratagem is of the Martingale Varietal. I shall endeavor to AVERAGE DOWN into the maelstrom and continue to buy as we circle lower into the sewers. I understand and acknowledge that President Biden is the biggest piece of shit to have ever been born — but mean reversion and markets sing to a different tune and right now PANIC is setting in and plebs are RUNNING for cover.

My best guess is for a CRASHING OF THE CLOSE, followed by a CRASHING OF THE MARKET ON MONDAY, at which point I would have likely tossed in another 15% of my assets into the fires.

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NUMEROLOGY INDUCED PANIC UNDERWAY

I always marvel at the grande stupidity of numerology fags, placing credence into numbers like 33 or heaven’s forbid 66. The year of 2022 happens to be a very important year for these psychos and it’s part of the SHMITA cycle.

All that aside, we inside Stocklabs were given ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE of today’s crash a month ago. The end of the crash will culminate on Monday, at which point your portfolios will be entirely dead.

Fun facts in regards to the Stocklabs mean reversion algos.

We are most oversold since 2008-2009. The percent of large cap stocks bullish reading is the second lowest on record.

The Chinese Yuan is down 0.85% v the dollar, the lowest since 2015. We have a true and palpable crisis underway. The US 1yr is now yielding 4.10%.

It says “it’s over” is a gross understatement. I’m only buying here because we are in panic mode. But after this panic subsides and we have the economy to observe, it’s gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

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THE END IS NOW

Inside the Pelican Room we were given advanced knowledge of the specific day markets would crash: 9/23-9/26 — all to do with SHMITA. On this news we are buying the blood and attempting to extricate a win from this, on the long side — which is retarded.

I added to my TNA holdings this morning at the open and now bore witness to a horrible blood letting in both markets and specifically energy. We have a full fledged rout underway in oil (-5%) and the euro is down another 0.7% vs the dollar.

We are pricing in something awful and the June lows loom.

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BRACE FOR IMPACT

I netted out +18bps today because I am a professional. See pal, that’s who I am and you’re a piece of shit.

On the matter of stocks, we have respites found in risk averse names like CL, CPB, SJM and TR. We have quality monies barreling into BIG COAL: BTU. We have a widening spread in Brent-WTI helping refiners mint money. I am long DK.

There are a billion reasons to panic, only one reason to buy: greed. There is no fundamental reason to own stocks now and I expect this sentiment to crest tomorrow, possibly Monday. Today’s dabble into fear is only the beginning. BRACE YOURSELVES for a deleterious heart stopping decline into what will be described as an 8 year market cycle calamity.

SHMITS is here lads. It’s almost over.


COLLAPSED CLOSE

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DISLOCATIONS ABOUND: ADDING INTO THE BLOOD

This is precisely the type of tape I want to buy into. When traders who were formally permanently bullish give up hope and acquiesce to market forces, I buy their blood and drink it up. We have FX dislocations, market pricing shenanigans and most importantly the treasury market is in flux, with bonds PLUNGING in price. This will have a deleterious effect on our under-funded pensions, such as the States of NJ and CA.

But that’s for a later discussion.

When we are talking the end of Pax Americana, our timeframe is a decade — but it’s happening now and has been happening for over a decade. Our influence is waning and China is ascendent. But nothing goes up or down in a straight line and we are approaching levels of apathy that make for an appealing buy the dip moment.

I usually buy at 5% increments, but will now reduce that to 2.5% in order to achieve flexibility.

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NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO PANIC

Congratulations plebs, we are finally oversold. Markets have been twisted into pieces and the yield curve is completely fucked. The US 10YR is +17BPS to 3.68%. This is a crisis styled move and I’m here for the blood.

However, and this is really non negotiable, I will not be selling short over the next week.

I’m 100% cash, +36bps, waiting for an entry on the long side.

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FULL COLLAPSE: YIELD CURVE MOST INVERTED SINCE 2000

We are already down 30%, but we have a lot more to go. I propose we hit the COVID lows, perhaps a sojourn of -40% lower from here to really place in a hard bottom.

Oh you don’t like those prices? You scum will pay for your insolence via sharply lower prices.

How does it feel to know your career as a “trader” is over?

I was not fooled today, not even once. I closed at session highs +57bps smartly positioned for the fires to come.

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