TODAY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FED DAY SINCE 2008

The market is optimistic heading into what is arguably the most important policy day for the Fed since the financial crisis of 2008. The expectation is for +75bps and astoundingly the market seems to want even more.

Gone are the days when the Fed helped markets. Traders now only require inflation be defeated, at all costs.

Best case scenario: Fed jacks rates by 75bps and leaves a hint that if inflation abated — they’d be done.

Considering the oversold nature of the market, it’s hard to see how the market would flop after a Fed day like today, but never count out the margin call liquidatoors from ruining an otherwise fine party.

This is where we are in the cycle.

We want the Fed to purposely hike rates so fucking high — that is literally destroys Americans and causes rampant unemployment in order to stave off the inflationary pressures that their own policies caused.

And yes, 100 bps tomorrow, in July and thereafter would be better. The sooner the @federalreserve can get to a terminal FF rate and thereafter can begin to ease, the sooner the markets can recover. https://t.co/lFDNvLl3oU

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) June 14, 2022

The net result would be — a deflationary vortex of economic dislocation — but the leeway for the Fed to start, at some point, QE part 100 again. This is where it all ends — MOAR QE.

Until we get there, we must first ruin Joe Crabshack and ensure his home is foreclosed. Bill Ackman will sop up his entrails and the cycle will continue until we can print no more.

I traded poorly, down 115bps for the session with a slight bias short into tomorrow.

Hourly seasonality in Stocklabs points to bearish afternoons. Couple that with the looming Fed meeting, I flipped my TQQQ for a 2% loss and took a 5% position in TZA. It’s all very small and the fate of TZA isn’t going to move my needle much. I find this tape to be difficult to read — due to the wild ranges and fluctuations. Dare I say, we are teetering here.

Conventual wisdom suggests markets will ride higher into an asinine 75bps hike tomorrow. This is cause for a funeral, not celebration. Nevertheless, people tend to believe and prefer to lie to themselves, not facing the truth of the matter.

The truth is, inexorably, America is on the brink of being humiliated in Ukraine — all of those new weapons abandoned and absorbed into the Russian Federation. Now we are saber rattling with China over Taiwan, always an excuse to neocon our way into needless conflicts. On top of that, our economic state is in shambles.

Suffice to say, we have a long road ahead of us and I hope we can rally, if even for just a bit, in order to bring the grace of hope and joy into the faces of traders if only for a brief moment again — as we descend into the pits of hell and burn for our sins.

All morning I have been entertaining contractors for the new home, just now two at once. In the morning I was a trash man — since the former owner of the house left a big pile of fucking trash for me in the garage without a bin — I approached the trash man who asked me to throw the 20lb bag of trash 10 ft high into his fucking truck. Needless to say, I did not make it and the trash subsequently fell on the floor.

All this and my broker dealer was wonky as fuck this morning led to me placing trades late and then falling prey to the belief system that stocks are permitted to trade up. I closed my longs and my shorts and went long TQQQ — like a moron — and now I am -1.1% on a day when I should be up.

Although 1.1% isn’t much and I am 90% cash, it pains me to even look at it. I do not have the patience for these sort of losses and will do whatever I can to avoid losing more. The present conditions of my accounts, all at or near RECORD highs, is counter to my actual life where things go astray as often as I fall asleep at night and the idea of me having both success and happiness is something I gave up on long ago, as boy turned to man and the difficulties of life and the pangs and horrors of hiring contractors for menial work grates at the very fiber of my existence.

Bitcoin is on the verge of splashing through $21,000 and even lower. The fuck heads over at Celsius just put up some more collateral with a liquidation price of $17kish for BTC. You know damned well it’s going there.

Celsius has posted another 1501 BTC as collateral and pushed its liquidation price down to $17,211.

— Lex Moskovski (@mskvsk) June 14, 2022

MSTR’s Michael Saylor has been borrowing to the hilt in order to buy SHITCOIN and is now under threat of margin calls.

$MSTR DEBT RECENTLY ACCUMULATED IN ORDER TO PURCHASE $BTC pic.twitter.com/1yQiSNbaEb

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) June 14, 2022

The entire nation of El Salvador bet big on BTC and lost.

This is a financial catastrophe and the global dollar hegemony could not be more pleased. They lured all of the morons into one place and trapped them via greed and promises of independence and freedom. You were never free. They were always in control. The end is near.

I know what you’re thinking — classic moron mentality: “well since everyone is so bearish, we must now go up.” Good luck finding that bottom pal, as all of the lemmings who jumped in last acquiesce to market forces and all of the Chinese farmers who levered up in the hopes of getting rich get blown the fuck out amidst all of the colorful trappings and pomp that one would presume to see, and befitting of any clown funeral.

Calm yourselves and STEEL UP for the fires I’ve been warning you about are here and if you’re going to make it — you’ll need to be made of sterner stuff.

Markets have dislocated and are now seaworthy. The NASDAQ shed 530 and nearly everyone long was down more than 5% for the session. Whilst I empathize with your predicament, I am here to help and have been telling you the correct path to take for more than 6 months now.The fact that you’ve refused my advise is an affront on my person and I will never forgive you for it.

That said, I closed the session DOWN 0.43% due to some late day buying. I am 125% leveraged both long and short in a concoction designed to perform magic acts at 9:30am. The stated goal here gents is to live to fight under better conditions. If we can arb out 10% monthly gains while we wait for nuclear warheads to detonate over Warsaw, so be it.

We all must sacrifice for the greater good.

With rates jacked to the roof and stock values collapsing, any company with negative free cash flow and large amounts of debt are in serious danger of collapse.  We have a real time tool inside Stocklabs to examine debt/market cap ratios, which I prefer over debt/equity — which I believe to be shit.

This much is known.

Companies enjoyed cheap credit for over a decade and borrowed to the hilt, never bothering to build a FCF positive business because of incompetence. Now with everything unraveling, these companies will either bust or be forced to partake in dilutive PIPE offerings in order to stay afloat, some with very amusing “death spiral” features.

Here are some stocks that hit this screen that are worth sharing.

(Stock/debt-mkt cap ratio/debt)

MSTR 1.37X $2.44B

UONE 2.7X $858M

CMLS 6X $1.16B

RRGB 6X $663M

RXT 2.9X $4B

WE 5.8X $21B

F 2.85X $135B

GM 2.3X $109B

CHTR 1.2X $95B

PCG 1.8X $46B

AAL 5.3X $45B

WBA 1.1X $37B

CCL 3.1X $36B

CZR 3X $26B

TEVA 2.6X $23B

The list goes on and on.

I am not a believoor in anything. I do not share your optimism. I moved to cash, closing out my FAZ/TZA positions because I am not a greedy man. I do not believe the market is heading up, but I am not stupid either. I will reposition towards the end of the session and attempt to bank some coin tomorrow.

At the moment I am down 13bps for the day, fortunate due to my heavy overweighted FAZ/TZA holdings, coupled with my risk averse longs such as ABC.

BOTTOM LINE: My advice to you is to protect your accounts. This is not the time to be greedy.

We have ourselves a fucking rout underway, with the NASDAQ off by more than 500. If you’re wondering what the news is: here it is: Pax Americana is over.

What is the premium attached to being the dominant super power in the world?

But today isn’t about stocks, per se — but the calamity occurring in the crypto markets. In fairness to the mood, often times bottoms are placed during times like this. Just when you think the world is going to explode — BAM we melt up. The only problem with that narrative is the FUCKING FED MIGHT HIKE RATES BY 100BPS ON WEDNESDAY!

The US 10yr is +16bps to 3.36%. The cost of servicing debt is exploding and this has spilled into both the MBS and CMBS markets. I have no way of being able to predict what tomorrow might bring. I can only tell you from experience that when shit like this happens — unemployment is around the bend and lower stock prices are all but a foregone conclusion. This issue we are facing isn’t transient. The inflation monster might be tamed — but by the time it is — the economy will be in such disrepair it’ll take Fed rigging to get us back to normal again. And then we might undergo yet another round of inflation and this cycle will repeat itself for years to come.

My trading is FLAT for the session, now holding 10% positions in FAZ and TZA, the rest cash.

Happy trading!

Last night Celsius announced crypto withdrawals are on pause due to market volatility.

CELSIUS IS IN TROUBLE pic.twitter.com/S3xJdLjkBx

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) June 13, 2022

On that news BTC dumped hard 4,000 points and ETH even more on a percentage basis..

Now Binance is saying the same but with the caveat “FUNDS ARE SAFU.”

Temporary pause of $BTC withdrawals on #Binance due to a stuck transaction causing a backlog. Should be fixed in ~30 minutes. Will update.

Funds are SAFU.

— CZ ? Binance (@cz_binance) June 13, 2022

Either way,  markets are not in a joking mood and ETH is in the 1200s.  It’s fucking over.

Now we sit and wonder about crypto derivative stocks and when they margin call out of the market.

CRYPTO DERIVATIVE STOCKS DOWN SHARPLY PM $MSTR pic.twitter.com/cuWKGZUB14

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) June 13, 2022

NASDAQ FUTS are down 330 and the Fed meeting this Wednesday might come with a massive rate hike surprise, some suggesting 100bps is in the works.

In other words, the Fed is hiking like madmen into a massive economic and market decline. This is the things nightmares are made from.

Expect higher yields, commodities,  and lower asset prices until the Fed meeting. I’m not so sure about the commodity part either. That might succumb to selling pressure too.

Happy Monday.