Empire America Drives Your Returns

In a roundabout way, we’re all complicit in these wars, the killing and maiming of innocents. Over 100,000 American casualties since 9/11, $6 trillion in purse snatched from the coffers and placed directly into the hands of people of ill repute. There is nothing you can do about it, frankly, and I doubt you’d want to do anything about it — unless it’s your son being buried or your portfolio getting smashed to pieces.

Civil unrest doesn’t occur lest there is something truly upsetting to the average Joe, at home slobbering over teevee dinners. In our age, perhaps this could happen if iPhone supplies dwindled or video games went off-line and all of the incels had to furnish their faces in the sun to face the real world and think about raising a family? The childrenfication of men has successfully turned an entire generation into self-entitled memers who do nothing but larp all day online and deprive themselves of discipline, indulgent in the things that are harmful to them.

In 2020, “The Fly” has decided that a temperance movement is most appropriate. Today I was very stressed, very upset, and I was cooking with wine. I was tempted to take a glass and down it — but withheld such wild eyed desires in exchange for abstinence. I shall not partake in the consumption of alcohol, not even a lick.

Same with caloric intake. After a year of neglect, I found myself to be skinny-fat, out of shape, unable to bench press an appropriate amount to kill a man. Thusly, I have enlisted myself into a cutting regimen whereby I starve myself daily in exchange for health. By my exact calculations, this diet will continue until I am 10% body fat, or 4 months.

Also, in my new house, I failed to place a teevee in the living room on purpose. Gone are the days of idle amusement and consumption of nonsense. In its stead is my vast library of books, which I read 2-3 hours per day. This austere movement is of course designed to improve myself, both physically and spiritually. I was unhappy in my former existence, so I am trying something entirely new.

On the issue of markets, Nasdaq futures are down 30, which is nothing to worry about. WTI is up a bit too, which is expected. There has been a lot of rhetoric out of Washington and Tehran this weekend, and I happen to believe we have reason for concern. Alas, the facts are bald faced and without censorship: wars drive America and American power drives returns. Sad, but true. Nothing to fear, unless it gets out of hand.

I will resist with every fiber of my existence reporting on political or geopolitical events. It’s toxic and not helpful when trying to see the market clearly. However, early this morning there were multiple rockets fired at US forces in Iraq. This of course begs the question: “what in the fuck happens next, should Iran decide to go all in again America in the region?”

Iran has the population of Germany and we can’t just roll our tanks into their mountainous regions. It would be, more or less, a gigantic quagmire and clusterfuck. In the off-chance that this idiotic political structure in America decided to fight a total war there and institute a draft, which is unlikely, I will be kidnapping my sons and moving out of the country.

If this continues to escalate, markets will get rocked, initially. Oil will spike to more than $80 and oil stocks in the U.S. will soar. Once the war situation stabilizes to the point of indifference, stocks will rally again. The only way this truly up-ends markets is if we get overrun in Iraq and face humiliation. That would of course mean a massive escalation and the expense of such a war is something the country cannot afford, but will pay it nonetheless because they don’t really care.

My simple advice during this period is to be cash rich, hedged, and long some gold. The market was looking for a reason to trade lower after a historic rise. This is probably good enough to start a nice old fashioned rout.

Stocks fell just 200 and breadth was in the range of 35%. This is not the type of action one would expect from the onset of a world war. I would not be surprised to see stocks climb on Monday, as the algos and the dumb money clamor for MOAR. However, if there is a God, a just one at that, he will smite all of you for your greed and for your depravity.

Bible aside, it appears rates are cascading lower again — which is a good thing. During these brief sojourns into “risk off”, fake algos thrust quickly into dollars, and bonds, juke average joes, and then pull the rug leaving them plastered on the floor with excrement falling from their faces. I cannot stress this enough, human beings do not run this market.

That being said, enjoy your weekend and pray to the Digital Gods that some heinous form of false flag operation doesn’t befall you at some public venue, which would undoubtedly energize the base into taking out some more bad guys and sending America’s bravest overseas for a hunting expedition.

May the blood and the coin flow heavily in 2020!

Cheers

You can probably flip a coin and attain greater accuracy in predicting the markets over the next week. But let’s not forget THE JANUARY EFFECT and the psychological toil it takes on money managers. To start out the New Year in disgrace is to feel like you’re climbing uphill with a rucksack of bricks attached to your person. It is never a good feeling to be behind and following the wondrous melt ups and spoiled rotten nature of markets, one can argue that the path of most pain is the path we’re forging ahead.

History is soiled with the blood of the meek who practiced a brand of hubris even the most powerful amongst us wouldn’t dare display. As I look around me, I see nothing but sub 100 IQ cro-magnons driving new whips and displaying new watches, all gotten from the great stock market melt up of the past two years.

Let it be known, when the fires come they will burn hot and long, melting those watches down to their base metals — smashing apart those new whips and casting the owners into the sewers — where they belong.

In the olden days, the rich got that way through inheritance, pluck, or ingenuity. Nowadays most get there by simply waiting around for things to happen. I am rooting for an upheaval to discredit these rascals — sending them back to their housing tenements living off Mac n Cheese balls deep fried.

Speaking of losses, I took yet another L today. YTD, my record is perfect.

TVIX -11.9%
AXGN -3.8%
PPC -4.4%
SQ -5.5%

Millennials are making ‘World War 3’ trend on Twitter and they need to fuck off about it. The only thing Iran is capable of doing is receiving our bombs. There isn’t a presence in the world that could threaten US interests, so the idea of a ‘world war’ is somewhat laughable and a farce.

The good thing about this sell off it is dropping yields, down 5bps to 1.81% on the 10yr. The only cause for my concern heading into 2020 were yields going over 2%. Markets are off this morning, but nothing too exaggerated and the buyers have already stepped in and the sellers given up and gone home. However, the day is young and I seriously doubt we’ve seen the end to the ‘volatility’, which is more Wall Street gibberish for ‘down stocks.’

The Fear-Greed index is entirely at the greedy side and you’re all chocolate eating Hansel and Gretals waiting to be destroyed. You deserve it and you shall have it soon. I hope the old witch snatches you up and cooks you inside of her oven and then eats you.

UPDATE: Dow futures are down 200, WTI +2.5%.

FORMER REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS CHIEF REZAEI VOWS "VIGOUROUS REVENGE AGAINST AMERICA" FOR SOLEIMANI KILLING: RTRS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 3, 2020

In response to being alive and in the way, America is striking back hard — killing all sorts of people tonight in ritual blood sacrifice. The winner in tonight’s Elysium lottery is Qasem Soleimani.

MAJOR ESCALATION
– U.S. airstrike in Baghdad
– Targeted 2 vehicles near airport
– Qasem Soleimani killed
– Was head of Iran's Quds force
– Senior PMF leader Al-Muhandis also killed
– Follows U.S. embassy attack and rocket attack on Kirkuk airbase, which the U.S. blamed Iran for

— BNO News (@BNONews) January 3, 2020

Click the link on Qasem’s name to learn about who he was and you’ll understand this has more to do with Syria than anything else. There must be vast alien treasures buried in Damascus somewhere. Leadership has a serious hard-on for them and those pesky Russians and fucking Iranians keep meddling and stopping us from colonizing them. With this advancement in the beef between American and Iran, one could expect some fireworks. Or maybe not. Who really wants to war with us? We’re fucking crazy lunatics who bomb the shit out of cities for looking at us sideways.

Got a terrorist in your city? Good, now 20,000 people will die because of him. This is how we roll, or dare I say “they” roll. I’m just here for the laughs and the tears. I am of course numb to death by now, having endured 19 years of constant war news. It goes into one ear out the other. Although I will not go as far as comparing America to the Nazis, I can see how Germany got cucked by their military rulers into their wars.

Oil is up 1% and futures are more or less unchanged. Keep an eye out for an Iranian response. I doubt they have the balls. But if they do muster the courage, futures are gonna fucking tank.

Semis have been strong for years, but Chinese burritos have sucked forever. Every so often, investors brave the easterly winds and allocate into indecorous Chinese names and make small oriental fortunes. Such an occasion on such a day is today.

Chinese Burritos

Semis

Such a wild eyed day to being the year. Even I am surprised. I still have two 3x inverse ETFs on my books, one up sharply, the other lower. I will hold both for at least another day. If anything drops 10% from basis, I sell no matter what. Often times I sell much quicker. The point is, there is a line in the sand worth obeying. Remember, you only need to blow up once to ruin your entire fucking life.

Lads.

I trust your New Year’s festivities went well? But now it’s time to get back to work. No more horseplay or malarkey. I don’t want to see you near the water cooler fetching a fucking snack from the vending machines. If I do, and I happen to see you in the act, I will run up to you and punch your jaw loose. You hear me you fucking faggot?

If you’re coming to iBankCoin for daily financial commentary from me, I expect two things from you.

Adhere to our strict dress code.

No more dress down Tuesday here pal. It’s suits all the time, even on the weekends. Not feeling good? A bit under the weather? Got a case of bronchitis? You either put on a suit and don’t log onto the computer. You see those cameras on your computer? We’ve hacked all of them and are watching you.

The second thing is for you to work hard.

No more joking around with Ted or discussing geo-political events with Todd. This is a god damned finance site of the first caliber. There will be none of that going on here. You fucking come and you learn and then you go work.

Now to the market.

Blasting off for 2020 and I happened to be long TVIX. I just took a sharp blow to the cock on this one, which is why you see that I am a bit perturbed. I started off the year with an 11.9% loss in this fucker and another -3.8% ding in some fucking biotech. Stuff like this really gets me pissed, but now I will work twice as hard to make it back. If that’s not enough, I will type so fucking fast into the computer, looking for winning trades, my fingers will bleed and then fall off. I don’t give a shit.

My Quant fund ended 2019 +20%, an abysmal showing in comparison to the SPY. There is a reason for this, and I have made an attempt to fix it. It was too conservative, so I kicked it up a notch. BAM!

Did you just read me say “BAM!”?

Damned right you did.

BAM BAM BAM BAM. Throw some olive oil and bourbon on that. BAM!

I just rebalanced my portfolios, positioned in a new Quant for January, sold two fuckers, bought three, and now I have to eat some fucking lunch — if that’s ok with you?

Good.

For the first time since I was probably 15, I spent the New Year’s completely sober. I made drinks for people and cooked and laughed and did all of the things one would expect to do on New Year’s eve, sans the booze. The idea of doing this, had I heard about it last year, would’ve been blasphemous. Alcohol was an integral part of my life, truthfully. I never abused it — but had a beer here, martini there. When I went out to dinner, a bottle of wine, etc. The booze never got in the way of work or family, but at times would produce mornings of dread — hangovers and thoughts of “did I drink too much last night?” squirreling through my brain. A few years back, I even started to forget the events of the previous night, semi-black outs if you will.

The past 2 or 3 years I studied booze and learned how to craft great cocktails — and took serious note to the ingredients and would spend hours making them at home instead of from the store. And for what? The net result was dreadful mornings and unnecessary calories and a wanton contribution to hasted demise. Believe me, I am not one of those folks who abstains from things in order to live longer. As a matter of fact, I am not all that interested in living long, which has been a curse in my family’s bloodline for two generations. Nevertheless, I must admit that I feel good waking up on New Year’s Day or Xmas Day or the day after Thanksgiving without a hangover. Really good.

Morning breakfast included smoked salmon on toast with lime, sour cream, horseradish and some herbs. Coffee is without sugar and a little half and half to reduce temp and improve upon flavor. I am at the gym daily, although suffering from a calf pull now, and generally interested in making my body “feel” better — because I know when my body feels better so does my mind. I am plagued by my mind, as I think too much. I analyze everything and can’t keep my eyes away from exploring new things. At times I wish I could just be a dumb southerner and rest out the balance of my days inside of a moonshine tank. Alas, I am a Northern Man of Viking descent and my brain is constantly ginning up new ways of living and improving my mode of being.

To be slothful is to be a fucking moron. The year is now 2020 — a brand new decade of fuckery awaits you.

Ciao (the most annoying form of goodbye).

I can’t believe the year is going to be 2020. I remember thinking about living in the 2020’s when I was a boy in the 80s. It felt like a lifetime away — and it was. And here we are, embarking on a new decade with lots of new adventures to come. I cannot control lots of things around me, but I am pretty good at controlling my investments and what they reap. All of my darkest hours in my investment life occurred when I risked to much, got too greedy, and tried to win big in a trade. It has taken me a long time to come to grips with the fact that gunning for a grand slam is not only a low probability trade — but also abjectly the moronic one too. Trust me when I tell you, you’ll be happier and richer while focusing on compounding returns over the next 30 years.

That being said, at some point the bull market will end and then you will need your wits about you. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

Plans for the evening entail Coque Qu Vain, but with a Turkey. I also made a brown sauce the past two days. The way you make a brown sauce is by first making stock — which I made by boiling the bones of a chicken, some herbs, a little tomato paste and a little white wine. Then yesterday I took a package of chicken wings and browned them with some onions and then ladled in the stock little by little. After it reduced by 90%, I poured it into a jar and kept repeating that process until I got a half jar’s worth of brown sauce. This is now a cooking blog.

With that brown sauce, I am going to punch you in the face with it. Any more questions?

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

For the balance of the day, MORE ERRANDS. House Fly must not rest, even while domiciled in the lazy and sloppy south. Also, no BOOZE because I swore it off until summer. I literally bought a bottle of sparkling cider and will pop it like a champagne bottom come midnight.

We’re very ritualistic around New Year’s and I take this renewal period seriously. I am not the best person to offer life advice, especially since I am still managing through my own demons. But I can tell you that being the person you admire, the person you want to be, is a valid and honorable goal. Think of all the qualities in people that you admire and then aspire to be that person. It helps when trying to define yourself, which is an issue that most people grapple with their entire lives.

Thank you for reading through 2019. I have lightened up the blogging efforts the past year in exchange for more banter inside Exodus. During 2020, we will be launching Stocklabs (sign up for BETA trial), so look forward to that and possibly a new design for the main site — something we’ve left alone for about 5 years.

Cheers and be well and please do not drink and drive.

Best rap song of the decade, obviously.