18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,147 Blog Posts

Bulled Up Into the Close

Look at me — I have no fear of a pullback. Lots of things can happen from now until the closing bell, yet here I am heroically 95% long, just 5% cash. This type of courage is rare these days and I only exalt myself in order to give you courage too. Get the fuck out there and own some stocks — be a man.

The bears might have you believe Xmas season is all but canceled and that stores will only be looted by thieves and grabblers — leaving nothing left for the Blackened Friday people to fight over. I think this is a pessimistic view on Pax Americana.

I’m sure the thieves will refrain from ruining the holidays for others and instead of looting — they might pull out their American Express BLACK cards and pay for their wares. After all, this is a Christian nation and the people of America would never sully the name of Jesus Christ just to more easily afford to wear designer goods made by the devil.

I view today as a consolidation day following a waterfall rally. Tomorrow will be up. More after the bell.

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Still Bullish Bros

I cleared out my positions in my trading account, which was 100% long, at the open for gains of 103bps and fucked off until now. Now that I’m back I see stocks were trending lower, likely on fears of rates heading back up. The US 10yr is +11bps and you have every right to be scared.

But not me. “The Fly” doesn’t cower in the face of selling. I bought a monstrous sized $SOXL position here — because it’s the right thing to do. Into the final hours I’ll allocate fully into this tape, based on several important factors.

1. The Bull Market is back.

2. National Festival Days looms.

3. Target earnings were good.

Inside of Stocklabs I have 3 other portfolios, in addiction to trading. One is a quant, which is 20 stocks allocated once per month based off the Stocklabs algos. The other is a Tesla account, which only buys $TSLA once per month. And the other one is my strategic holdings account, which is designed to be a longer term account — custom tailored for people who work long hours at the coal mine and cannot have freedom when the sun is outside.

That account owns $TGT and is up nearly 9% for November. I tell you this to boast and brag about my good fortunes, letting you know all of the many tricks I have up my sleeve, basically indestructible.

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Let’s go over some rough stroke about what transpired today and then I’ll tell you what I did.

The newly formulated CPI data has confirmed that Jay Powell defeated the inflation scourge and has truly done a miracle in raising rates whilst at the same time producing an environ for rapid growth. I do not think this has ever been done before, so congrats to all involved.

The net result of the weaker than expected CPI data this morning was atomic detonations across the portfolios of bears — led higher by stocks of ill repute. The Russell 2000 was higher by 5%. The dollar was CRUSHED by 1.75% vs the Euro and the US 10yr was down 18bps.

What the market is saying: rate cuts are coming and we’ll be getting them before Europe. Ergo, and this goes withour saying, the stocks that led the market higher were heavily leveraged free cash flow losers — stocks considered dead in a high rate environment because the cost of capital was thought to have been restrictive. Well, in a lower rate climate, the zombie companies can flourish again and get rich off the fat.

As for me, you should’ve seen me out the: resolute and stoic — methodical yet daring. I weighed into the market mid afternoon after opening down 71bps after getting poleaxed early in TZA. I was ripping through the market like a champion, placing large bets — totally sure of myself and got all the way back to breakeven.

Normally speaking, breaking even on a day when the NASDAQ was +350, that would be impetus to throw myself into a lit fireplace. But not today, as I had other irons in the fire — all doing well. The trust accounts were all up, as they are PERMANENTLY BULLISH — and the most important factor was my absolute conviction in the near term direction of the market — which is up.

To understand the level of my commitment, you must know that I’d bet my soul to eternal damnation on stocks trading up from here. Given the vagaries of the internet, I will offer you absolute terms. The market will trade up else my soul will be forfeited to the fires for eternity.

In case you’re wondering, the Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms gave members ample time to get involved. For those who did, 10,000 salutations and may the rest of your day be filled with celebration amidst pomp circumstances, fineries deserving of a man of both honor and substance.

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Today is a Seminal Shift in Markets

You might not like it — but the bull market renewed began today. The bulls are in their smoking jackets reading the papers, smoking their pipes, in the study at leisure whilst the market rapidly paces upwards.

My bearish colleagues out there will not believe what I am about to tell them — but it’s better they’d hear it from me than a transgendered bull. The battle is over. The GLOBOHOMO won and markets are going higher. We have an utter collapse in rates coupled with a 5% lift in the $IWM. This is a deadly one two combo to your jaw — cracking it loose and sending you down for the count.

I did my research and looked for manners of ways this could be a dead cat bounce but came up with very little. On the whole, large moves like this for the $IWM marked LONG TERM BOTTOMS in markets. There were occasions when the very next day stocks fell in cartoonish fashion — but I sincerely doubt that would happen tomorrow. You do trust me, no?

THE BEAR MARKET HAS ENDED. As predicted, not only did we have a wonderful November, which is ongoing by the way, but we also placed in a bottom for the balance of 2023.

I attempted a foray, skirmish if you will, shorting the market from 12-1pm and made very little. I then took on some longs figuring we’d squeeze the heads of short sellers into the final hours. Dare I say, I’d bet my life this might happen today, up more than expected because the bears got their heads caught in between floors wedged in the elevator shaft again — about to get their faces crushed in.

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Remember when I talked all of that shit about not shorting into National Feast Day and that I’d need to remind myself not to do it, to follow my own advice?

Yep, you guessed it. Tricked and fooled at the open following benign CPI data that all but declares historic victory for the FOMC. I had some $TZA and $UVIX, like a moron, and luckily some longs to absorb the shocks. I had to sell it all and “lock in” losses of 71bps. Meanwhile, my strategic holdings portfolio, which is a very small experimental account of longs, is higher by 2.3%.

I sold my longs in the trading because I can recount numerous times missing rallies, only to buy in late, then to get my head sawed off for the balance of the session. I’d prefer not to be tortured into two wrong trades and would much rather just be wrong once.

That being said, I’m not finished for the day. I’ll let the smoke settle and the bodies fall where they may and I’ll head back in when things are calm. Right now everything is up 10%. All of the greasiest and trashiest names are soaring in one giant fucking short squeeze of pornograpic proportions.

Funny thing is, I don’t even know why I kept those shorts when I was bullish. At any rate, down 71bps isn’t too bad, all things considered, and I should now shut the fuck up about it and try to fix it.

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Repetitive Bullshit — San Fran-Fucking-Cisco Pretends to Be a Normal City

Any idea how monotonous this is for me? I can do this shit from my phone and without any information and still crush markets every single year without ever falling behind schedule. I used to get very excited about my wins, especially when I managed money professionally — based solely on when I was able to change lives and/or make spectacular paychecks. But now my reward for trading excellence is dealing with drug addicts and wastrels — men of sub-mental qualities discussing the virtues of being homeless. There are times I think about offering bad advice on purpose — but refrain because I have rather stringent moral ethics and would always help my fellow man in need, providing said fellow man wasn’t a drug addict wastrel and homeless in the streets of San Francisco.

Speaking of which, Gavin Newsom might’ve ordered the execution of thousands of homeless men and women traversing the landscape of San Francisco, or perhaps he sent them into the sewers. Either way, they’re nowhere to be found now and he admits the city was cleaned the fuck up for President Xi of China.

You can view this piece of news and become angry — or you can look at the brighter side of things. All of our problems in America today can be fixed, if only the men leading us were motivated. The illegals can be scooped the fuck up and shipped the fuck out. The criminals can be executed and dropped in mass graves. You get my drift.

Alas back to markets, the ever interesting story of stocks and their inane trajectory. I am moderately bullish but need stocks to crash in order to satiate my seething hatred that’s all bottled up inside. We want vengeance and retribution and violence and all of the wonderous things that mark the tables of time and history.

On the issues of violence — the plebeian class has always been angered by what they deemed to be unjust and yet history books are filled with the virtues of the Mongols, Alexander the Great, Napoleon, and the allies in WW2. Were they the “good guys?” It doesn’t matter. History is written by the victors and the victors are the one’s hailing from superior civilizations that are able to leverage it into military might.

If the Arabs wanted to stop Israel they would but they can’t, so the merry-go-round continues as natural selection intended — afflicting the weak with the will of the strong — broadcasted live for all to see and you can do nothing about it but stop eating at McDonald’s.

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Morning Collapse Leads to Rally: SHOCKER

I’m not falling for this rally shit. The NASDAQ was hammered at the open and ran straight the fuck up since then. I just can’t help myself but to HATE the market. Something must be wrong with me.

I have a $TZA position against some longs and am down only 10bps — but there is a fire inside of me that wants to place it all on SQQQ and then pray for its downfall. But don’t worry — I am a professional and would never do anything reckless.

There isn’t anything to analyze with this tape. We have all of the information needed to draw conclusions. Now it’s simply up to money flow and sentiment. At the moment it seems the GLOBOHOMO is ascendent, creating gays at an industrial rate all overt the west — whilst at the same time genociding the whites. Some whites are really mad about it — but about half have been psyop’d into not only accepting their own liquidation but embrace it. What else can I say?

For the remainder of the session, I intend to be active — pressing larger bets into the close. I have been trading carefully because my gains are +7% and I’ve always hated squandering gains more than anything else. I can more easily accept losing 5% of a month than squandering a 5% gain and closing flat. I’d rather lose money than blow a lead.

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Dicey Open

If it weren’t for national feast day looming, I’d be a heavy seller here. Today we have all of the monsters out of the closet: higher rates, oil, lower stocks.

Cryptos are weak too but there is a stubbornness about this tape that holds me back from committing either way. Truth is, when the market is like this it usually goes higher.

I’ll likely find some stocks to buy near session highs, but risk no more than 10% of my assets, leaving upwards of 40% cash. Since I don’t have strong convictions about the direct, I’ll take it easy until I figure it out.

Down 19bps early going.

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Remember When People Liked Tech?

When I was 7 years old my mother bought me a cassette stereo and automatic phonograph, which meant when the record ended the needle would detect it and return back to the holder. My sister, who is 5 years older than me — wasn’t as lucky. She had an 8-track stereo with a phonograph that wasn’t automatic. While I was able to record from the radio with my cassettes — she was forced to use her Atari styled cartridges with very little flexibility or capacity.

As a boy I remember being enamored by simple pleasures we take for granted today: toasters, vacuums, blenders, irons, cassette walkman, video game consoles, colored TVs, VCRs, power steering in cars, cable TV — high speed fucking elevators.

In the 90s I remember when the CD was launched and one of my friends showed us his CD-walkman. It was almost unbelievable when I examined it, so new and advanced — and it set the table for a series of technological innovations that would soon change the entertainment industry. From 8 track players to cassettes to CDs to DVDs to the truly phenomenal Apple iPod and digitally stored music and movies — the electronics industry was a source of wonderment for Americans.

People used to revel in the innovation of technology, argue about betamax vs VCR, extol the virtues of the microwave oven and spend hours inside the electronics department looking at plasma, LCD and LED televisions.

That wonder has been destroyed in America, thanks in large part to government meddling into privacy and a general distrust for BIG TECH because of their eager compliance and very political employees.

Last week former employees of Apple unveiled a new AI powered pin/phone/amazing piece of technology — and no one gave a shit.

I showed my kids and some younger people and, almost universally, they’re disinterested to instant hating it, which is a byproduct of their disgust with their smartphone experience’s and how social media is both addictive and toxic. I completely understand why they feel this way and I feel like something has been stolen from them, the excitement of human innovation should be celebrated by all. But for whatever reason, in our current timeline, our society is increasingly cynical, untrusting, and malicious.

Tech geeks used to be just tech geeks; but now they’re very wealthy power hungry bastards and they employ radicalized people who are spiteful and unfriendly — diving people by race and political leanings. It’s total fucking rot and it’s a damn shame.

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Macro Trends for Longer Term Investors

I am going to take a break from talking shit and boasting about how wonderful I am and actually provide you with a service, a view into the market to identify some longer term trends. Some of the complaints that I get for Stocklabs is that it’s geared heavily towards day trading, which is what I prefer to do. There are people out there, apparently, who work at companies and cannot trade 100 times per day. This post is for those work-slobs.

Median returns, 1 year
Median return for “all stocks”: -3.9%
Basic Materials -7.5%
Consumer Goods -7%
Financials -10.5%
Healthcare -8.8%
Industrials +9.6%
Services -3.1%
Tech +9.1%
Utilities -8.9%

As you can see from the data above just two areas of the market have been ‘safe.’

Now let’s look at those same sectors but affix a minimum market cap of $10b to them.

Median returns, 1 year (min cap $10b)
Median return for “all stocks”: +1.3%
Basic Materials -1.28%
Consumer Goods -7.7%
Financials -4.3%
Healthcare -7.4%
Industrials +6.5%
Services +5.7%
Tech +19.5%
Utilities -8.8%

Wow, we can make some easy assumptions here. We want to focus on larger capped stocks and avoid buying “cheap” small caps based on our narcism. With a minimum market cap, we see material improvement in the following industries: basic materials, services, financials and tech.

Let’s dig deeper into those areas. My assumption here, as a principle while investing — things in motion tend to remain in motion and today’s trend will be tomorrow’s. There are exceptions to this thinking, mostly when accosted by small cap stocks. But generally speaking, larger cap trends remain for long periods of time.

For the next set of data I am going to showcase the top 10 ranked stocks in basics, services, financials and tech using Stocklabs 1 year technical ranks, which is the aggregate scores on a 1-5 scale, 5 being best, for the past year.

Financials: $ACGL, $APO, $BBVA, $UBS, $ARES, $MUFG, $SMFG, $MFG, $AJG, $ING
Bascis: $PR, $SCCO, $LIN, $PAA, $MPC, $SLB, $BKR, $TRGP, $HAL, $DD

Analysis: My broad assumptions is there is a bull market in foreign domiciled banks, very large oil services, logistics operators and a heavy focus on tera cap monopolies with an emphasis on the proliferation of AI.

Here is some further insight into the type of companies being bought the past year:

Median, 1yr

Revenues: $19.9b
Earnings $1.9b
FCF $3b
FCF growth +39%
EPS growth +29%
Rev growth +9.9%
Gross margins +47%
Debt/market cap: 0.15x

The median market cap for the above stocks is $37b.

Conclusion: for longer term investors, take your portfolios and mine the data I just provided for you to compare and contrast. Once you find outliers in your portfolios, replace them with names that fit into this very specific framework. Ultimately, you’ll be investing in great companies and you’ll possess a clear vision for what deserves to be in your portfolios for the longer term and what is temporary.

I hope this helps a little.

Good day.

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