If you got jerk’d into the futures market last night on news that Iran killed dozens of American soldiers, shorting futures that is, you got your balls toasted on top of a grill born in hades. I’m having a curious day, and will not get into smaller details, out of respect for the good folks inside Exodus. But I am short oil with extreme leverage and that is working wonderfully today. I also have shorts in biotech and semis. Those are not fairing as well.
The balance of my portfolio is long, fully. I sold out of HMI today for a 6.5% overnight success. I also stepped into another SAAS stock today, bulking up on some of my favorite names. Stocks are at record highs. I have no qualms with people attempting to catch an inflection point or a reversal lower. But I do take issue with people who pretend we’re not at record highs.
If you had problems attaining market returns in 2019, it was because you traded stubbornly. You didn’t conform and thought you knew more. Well, more often than not, this is a recipe for disaster or at best underperformance. If you’re not a good trader, as evidenced by a long rich history of profit, you’re better off in a quantitative portfolio or even a best ideas pastiche, providing it has diversification and isn’t designed for gambling. The true secret to generational wealth, something I of course still strive to attain, is compounding returns over a long period of time without squandering it. Most people squander good work during periods of poor judgement. Greed or avarice kicks in and next thing you know 2 years of gains are gone, or worse.
You’ve worked hard to make money and have been fortunate enough to be born into a country with upward mobility. It wasn’t all luck, since your genetic make up had a lot to do with your perseverance. Do not squander your earnings via hubris, the notion that you are unique and selected to have a 3rd eye — causing you to commit elemental errors in a forlorn quest for financial independence. Fuck the people in the lambos and the Instagram flexes. All of that is happenstance, luck, or perhaps thanks to a genetic enhancement that only affects 0.01% of people. The market isn’t hard to game when you elongate your time frame. This isn’t rocket science or something that requires decades of study. Investing is easy. Trading, however, is an entirely different story. If you cannot trade well, do not try it. Instead, use blunt instruments like Le Fly for your picks. I serve fresh fish daily.
Au Revoir, Shoshanna!Comments »