iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,513 Blog Posts

SIR: The Market is Oversold

Imagine this. Dip buyers retardly trip over each other to squeeze stocks off the lows and into space. The current rout become a buying frenzy with lavish gains of 20% intra day evenly distributed like some sort of communist-capitalist bastard offspring. We all laugh and choke on shrimp cocked tails, perform heimlich maneuvers on each other and then wash it down with iced cold champagne. The losses of 2022 washed away like a dirty pig in a hot bath.

Gentlemen, I speak to you from the future. These things, and much more, are destined to occur. The Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms kicked in today, flagging for the first time since December OVERSOLD on our 12mo long dated algorithm.

What does this mean?

It means people are racked with worries and losses and when fear is this palpable a reversion to the mean is likely to occur.

Here are the backtest results over the last year.

I’ve been trading off these algorithms since 2009 and the times they missed all had one thing in common.

Something extraordinary happened.

Pray tell me, does anything extraordinary seem to be happening at the present?

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MARKETS CAREEN LOWER AS AMERICA SLIPS INTO OBLIVION

It’s over Ladies and Gents. The barbarian hordes have taken over our cities and everything that was once sacred in America (family, trust, integrity, honor) are now gone. Replacing it are “heroes”, the “front line” nurses and doctors injecting vaccines into people in order to do nothing against the spread of COVID. These people are in fact braver than the men who stormed the beaches of Normandy, catching German bullets with their helmets in the name of democracy. Now we cannot visit a restaurant without the proper medical status, not because the vaccine stops the spread of COVID — but in order to express our allegiance to this new religion — one based on the premise of science.

Speaking of science, XBI got plugged today and all rugs pulled, as markets careened lower in a manner that is reminiscent of all previous bear markets. People sold the close as fast as they could — because they cannot stand to see what the headlines read tonight.

Will the 10yr eclipse 2%? Will rising rates cause another housing crash?

One thing is for certain, we have popped the tech bubble in its entirety. Shares of NET are down 60% from their highs and lesser names are down even more. For me, I view this as capitulation and a time to buy. This is counter-trend and sometimes counter-trend pays off big. I closed down 3.5% for the session, 10% cash, long besides my emotions because nothing crashes forever, as we now inverse the Trumpian returns and bleed out unceremoniously. We shall rise again — but the gains will be short lived and frantic, so take the bounces when they come and bank them.

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CATACLYSM

Complete annihilation from the top down. When has American been this bad, tell me? We are segregated by class, race, and medicinal status, all encouraged by leadership. Our wars have been giant colossal failures to the point of national humiliation. Economic policy has been ruinous to the point that it encourages sloth and has resulted in supply chain catastrophes and rapid inflation. Structurally our cities are cesspools of crime and degeneracy, once testaments to our greatness but now reminders of our failures.

So it’s not really a surprise to see Russia moving military personnel around or China menacing Taiwan or our medical establishment completely and totally discredited after two years of propaganda trying to convince parents to inject their 5 year olds with a vaccine against a virus that poses close to zero risk to them. I thought the Trump administration was bad, always making promises but instead ending up in scandals — but this takes the cake.

Has a President ever been so persona non grata? I don’t even hate Biden. He evokes no emotional response from me other than depression. I look at him and think he’s not there. Luckily for us, the President isn’t really in charge. I must say, this is the worst leadership from the CIA in decades, perhaps ever.

Markets are spiraling lower and at the center of the problem are interest rates, with the 10yr now above 1.8%. SAAS stocks are off 18% for 2022 and only energy stocks are doing well thanks to inflation and a European energy crisis.

I’m open to the idea of a silver lining in all this. Perhaps, at least from a stock market point of view, we are oversold and can rally soon out of sympathy. But even if we did, none of the problems are going away and in order to get the inflation genie back in the bottle it’s gonna take some deflationary measures to make it happen — never a feel good process.

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Russian Military On the Move; Brace Yourselves for Winter Wars

It’s extremely distasteful to discuss looming wars, since as a man I naturally, somehow, pine for it — even though I am 100% sure if actually in one I’d hate it. It is the reason why men love war films or acts of extreme violence. It satiates our hunter/gather desires and the desire to commit wanton acts of violence against one another.

War is always a game for the elites, spent gratuitously with the lives of the plebs. They get us all worked up with nationalistic fervor and assign causes for us to fight for. The truth is, these sons of bitches are always up to no good. For the past 20 years I’ve bore witness to the United Steaks poke at Russia in a variety of ways. But the power we exuded out into the world started to fray with our unsuccessful meddling in Syria, the rise of ISIS which was suspect as fuck, and the final and dastardly humiliation in Afghanistan. As a people, we are wholly divided and demoralized, with our government more concerned with depraved and divisive policies than the projection of power and excellence in the world. We are, in so many ways, the laughing stock of the world — an obvious empire in decline — mostly self-inflicted by sociology professors and Think Tank catamites.

I digress and will do so again.

I present to you very unusual military movements in Russia. The obvious target is Ukraine. The not so obvious targets are NATO Baltic states: Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. We could never defend those states and it’s almost as if we included them in NATO as bait to find a reason to wage war with Russia. Down below you will find a sundry of resources that can quickly get you up to date with what seems like something important to watch. If it turns out to be nothing, Russia would’ve committed one of the most expensive and dramatic military exercises in decades.

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HOPE SPRINGS!

I was tepid the whole day, due to sheer cowardice thanks to the carnage of the market. Although tempted to behave like the fucking lunatics inside Stocklabs, I did my own thing — went long LABU near the lows and was buying WCLD when no one wanted it. Then LABU fucked lower and people in the comments section were on suicide watch. So when it rebounded and my losses lessened from -6% to -2.5%, I gleefully booked the loss.

This is where I sold.

MOTHERFUCKER.

I watched in horror as the fucker went up and to make matters worse, I had a position in TMF choking me and TZA sinking like the fucking Titanic in a field of hardened icedbergs. In a rush, I frantically allocated back into the market, sold TZA and TMF, and let the Gods throw me into the vortex. I ended up DOWN 45bps on a day when I should’ve had a cock extension surgery and been swinging my balls low into MLK day. Instead, I had to bear witness to all of the cocksuckers in the Pelican Room (my paying customers) do so well. FANCY PANTS abounds, as I sashayed into a middling session — closing out the week in true catamite style -0.5%.

On a brighter note, my Quant did well — because that has my non-emotional brain and not the one racked with fears.

NOTE: WE NOW OFFER FREE TRIALS AT Stocklabs. I WILL 100% REVOKE THIS AND YOU CANNOT FIND IT ON OUR NORMAL LANDING PAGE. FREE FOR 7 DAYS, CANCEL AT ANYTIME.

BTW: I closed 100% long, no hedges.

Ciao

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I HAVE HOPE!

What can go wrong? I bought the morning pops in LABU and WCLD and view the market as opportunistic. It’s entirely possible this is the top intra-day — but I doubt it. On Jupiter’s Stone, should markets reverse lower today I might be forced into hibernation for the next several years.

I entered the session long TQQQ and TMF and now own SAAS and biotech. At still 65% cash and an urge to finally have something to write about on this fucking blog, I now have hope!

MOLTO BENE.

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The Close Was Crashed: Nibbled

I was on my game today, via not trading. I held a 10% position in TMF all day, betting on flight to safety. It worked and I held and at 3:57 I stepped into TQQQ, leveraged NASDAQ, because nothing says “fuck you” like buying into calamity.

Jim Biden’s mandate got shot down in the Supreme Court today — which must be annoying for the vaccinated fucking retards reading this now. Look and listen to me: fuck your vaccines. I’d rather die.

Moving on, I think the market is in for a severe correction, on par with the misery of the 2nd Obama term. Expect stocks lower by 35% this year, under immense pressure from ever facet of production. Having said that, we trade the ranges and hope for the best and we most certainly sell before 9:45am.

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Single Best Trade Idea: Long Long Bonds

Bear with me and please inflationistas out there do not throw tomatoes at this blog.

Rates are too god damned high. And it’s because of the higher rates, the specter of Fed action, that is causing tech and biotech to correct so severely. Just over the past month SAAS stocks and biotech too are down in the magnitude of 35%. This is plainly insane, but not without precedent.

What is the market pricing in?

In layman’s terms, slower growth. But we’ve been down this road before and at the first sight of slow growth the Fed changes a word in their statement and the whole market go bananas to the upside. The point being, there is a Fed put and that put demands LOWER interest rates. That’s just the way it has been.

Let’s offer a few scenarios for you to gameplan.

Markets careen lower on fears of stagflation. Do you really think oil is going to buck the trend up? That’s very rare and oil is sensitive to the economic winds, so to say. Admittedly, we are enduring a rather unique spate of inflation, which has been caused by the COVID lockdowns and stimulus. Nevertheless, it would be extremely rare for markets to tank and bonds not become an avenue of safety.

The other scenario s straight up. But how will SAAS and biotech bottom with rates pressuring higher? Moreover, how can the market do two things at once? Impossible.

The answer is simple: BOARD THE ARK, via TLT or TMF for leverage. I am 10% weighted in TMF now and to be honest I am liable to sell at any time. That still doesn’t mean the thesis isn’t true or should be followed.

On the other hand, out algorithms inside Stocklabs just tagged the biotech ETF XBI with a 30yr oversold tag. Lo and behold, we are at very historical levels of carnage in the biotech space and there will be a mean reversion trade to the upside with severity, rate or not.

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SELL ALL OPENS

There is an art to selling the open. If you sell at 9:30am exactly you’d get good prices. At around 9:35, the dips come and you get shaken out. If napping too long and you wake up at 9:50am, sometimes you’ll get the best prices of the day. If you’re holding past 10am you’re super aggressive and asking for trouble.

Today I sold all around 9:35am and booked a solid 53bps, which was half the gains I would’ve had if I sold in lightening fast speed at 9:30am. Immediately after I sold, we exploded higher. My gains might’ve been 200bps+. But my resolve to not chase was solidified and I vowed never to chase a 9:55am rally for as long as I live.

I have no idea what happens next. All I know is semis, oils and banks lead up while biotech and software plunge daily. Home builders are also strong today and I must admit being jealous of my own quantitative account in Stocklabs this month, which is easily crushing my trading account +400bps vs -275bps. The cold and calculated mechanical investment stratagem of the quant doesn’t care about the superfluous nature of selling at 9:30am vs 9:35am. It doesn’t care. Perhaps I need to mechanize myself and quit being so neurotic. But given the last few months in particular, I am especially risk averse and do not trust the market as far as I could throw it — which I can’t because it’s not a physical item I can pick up and toss.

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Science is a Scam

This whole vaccine bullshit era has actually sown some pretty horrendous seeds in the biotech space, whereby everything but PFE is shattered into fucking pieces. The sector is behaving as if the entire human population is about to go extinct.

LOOK AT THE CHART ON THE 3X LEVERAGED BIOTECH ETF

We are in the midst of a torture, with exception to those heavily long commodities. The bare shelves in the grocery store and the tankage of US dominance and its currency has resulted in some fairly outsized gains in the oil/ag sectors. All tech and biotech have been harried into the ovens to be cooked by goblins and eaten at the open of trading every single day since March 2021.

I performed a great tragedy upon myself today, closing of course near the lows -180bps. I am simply not motivated enough and good enough to call myself a competent trader at this time. I ended up with sheer dicerolls of 3x upside ETFs and no hedges. It’s either going very well for me tomorrow or disaster. I have no reason at all to be so heavily long, other than relying on the fact that stocks had been down. That is not a reason to own stocks and I’ll need a miracle, or brief period of ebullition, to help me during the opening tick tomorrow.

Truth is, I was positioned perfectly last night, 20% long TZA and some stocks that did ok during the session. My proclivity to sell in the morning often works but when it doesn’t it gets really bad — because I usually chase in an effort to go green. My obstinance of not wanting to liquidate an account while red is what’s causing these gyrations and the idea of a rally is stuck in my head and I can’t shake it loose.

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