18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,983 Blog Posts

Here’s How “The Fly” Is Positioned Into This Chicanery

If you got jerk’d into the futures market last night on news that Iran killed dozens of American soldiers, shorting futures that is, you got your balls toasted on top of a grill born in hades. I’m having a curious day, and will not get into smaller details, out of respect for the good folks inside Exodus. But I am short oil with extreme leverage and that is working wonderfully today. I also have shorts in biotech and semis. Those are not fairing as well.

The balance of my portfolio is long, fully. I sold out of HMI today for a 6.5% overnight success. I also stepped into another SAAS stock today, bulking up on some of my favorite names. Stocks are at record highs. I have no qualms with people attempting to catch an inflection point or a reversal lower. But I do take issue with people who pretend we’re not at record highs.

If you had problems attaining market returns in 2019, it was because you traded stubbornly. You didn’t conform and thought you knew more. Well, more often than not, this is a recipe for disaster or at best underperformance. If you’re not a good trader, as evidenced by a long rich history of profit, you’re better off in a quantitative portfolio or even a best ideas pastiche, providing it has diversification and isn’t designed for gambling. The true secret to generational wealth, something I of course still strive to attain, is compounding returns over a long period of time without squandering it. Most people squander good work during periods of poor judgement. Greed or avarice kicks in and next thing you know 2 years of gains are gone, or worse.

You’ve worked hard to make money and have been fortunate enough to be born into a country with upward mobility. It wasn’t all luck, since your genetic make up had a lot to do with your perseverance. Do not squander your earnings via hubris, the notion that you are unique and selected to have a 3rd eye — causing you to commit elemental errors in a forlorn quest for financial independence. Fuck the people in the lambos and the Instagram flexes. All of that is happenstance, luck, or perhaps thanks to a genetic enhancement that only affects 0.01% of people. The market isn’t hard to game when you elongate your time frame. This isn’t rocket science or something that requires decades of study. Investing is easy. Trading, however, is an entirely different story. If you cannot trade well, do not try it. Instead, use blunt instruments like Le Fly for your picks. I serve fresh fish daily.

Au Revoir, Shoshanna!

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Futures Soar Post American Victory Over Iran

First he won the trade wars versus China. Then he got Mexica to pay for and build a wall. Now he defeated Iran in combat. Is there anything this man cannot do — aside from finding out how Jeffrey Epstein managed to kill himself?

Futures are now green. Oil is collapsing, as predicted. Gold is retreating. All is well, all is well.

The President is slated to address the nation this morning, so anything can happen. Maybe, just maybe, he goes batshit. Or, since there were no casualties, he lets it go and relishes in his Normandy styled victory.

My best hunch: volatility is back, so keep some cash, maybe some hedges, and trade the closes for next morning rips.

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Iran Pulls Off Limp Dicked Attack on US Bases in Iraq; Futures Edge Lower

All is well gents.

I was at dinner when it all unfolded. I was following this ABSOLUTE FAGGOT on Twitter, retweeting his stuff for fun, going with the in the moment flow — being reported directly from Iranian state teevee.

Truth is, the attacks were limp dicked and flaccid. All is well lads.

Futures were down over 450. Nasdaq futures nearly 190. Now it’s all a dream, barely down 90 on the Dow. By tomorrow afternoon, short sellers are going to be eating pavement.

I read all sort of shit tonight, such as IRAQ, not Iran, starting a ground offensive against America. Iran downing a US plane. Threats against Dubai. Missiles obliterating US bases with 30 dead. All lies and fictions woven by men with IQs less than 85.

What will Trump do tomorrow? He should do nothing — but he cannot do that since he threatened to blow up Iranian art museums if they retaliated. No, now Trump is going to roast their stomachs to hell — bomb out communications and get rid of their silly little Navy that is always dicking around taking hostages. Let it be clear, Le Fly is a man of peace and does not want any of it. But these things will happen. Mark my words. American hellfire will come in short order.

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Elon Musk Dances on the Graves of Shorts

This is a high key nerd scene, something that cannot be avoided in men with IQs north of 130.

He built the giga factory 3 in China in just 10 months, thanks to Chinese slave labor.

Stock is lit.

In other news, Elon’s other other other company, Neuralink, is planning to INSERT AI CHIPS into humans by next year.

First he lured us in with cool gadgets, cars, flame throwers. Then he killed us.

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The Ingredients For a Market Crash Are All Present


Markets are stubbornly keeping near the highs. Analysts are sucking their own dicks, tripping over their own balls, to upgrade semis. The world is in flames and Iranian mullahs are foaming from the mouths, Chinese trade wars, depravity on a scale never seen before — but the Fed has it all in check. We’ve gone a decade without a recession — first time ever I believe. The economic cycle is dead. Go visit your macro-economics professors and throw eggs at him, while screaming “learn to code.”

That being said, the zebra is amongst us in the wild prairie, eating alongside the lions. See the lions have been fed well and are very fat and content. The men lie around all day and larp, while the women fetch us food from the local dispensary, making it unnecessary to hunt and kill. But you cannot stop nature. You can tell the lion he is now a lioness, but it won’t stop him from doing what lions do — if you know what I mean.

A comeuppance is in order. A great grave swing by memory lane is overdue.


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U.S. INFORMS IRAQ WE ARE LEAVING (update: just kidding)

UPDATE: It’s all just one big misunderstanding.

It appears we did a 180 on this topic based upon Trump’s statement last week. After Iraq voted to expel US forces from the country, Trump told them to pay us back for the billions spent in the country, and how he’d harangue them with unbelievable sanctions. Well, here is a new approach: a letter to Iraq informing them of our planned departure.

In other news, Iran stated that after Soleimani was in the ground, on Tuesday, their campaign of revenge would commence. Back in the real world on Wall Street, no one cares. We don’t give a shit and stocks are sharply higher. They were down 200 at the open, but now they’re higher.

I would argue that the premium for WTI should be deflated, now that we’re leaving Iraq and Iran only wants to quarrel with us in court. This could of course all change rapidly, and stocks could once again tread lower. I am prepared to deal with that too. Nevertheless, it doesn’t look like the big crash is happening just yet and World War 3 has been delayed.

Or has it?


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Markets Turn Higher, SAAS Leads

No big surprise here. There is an undercurrent of weakness in the semis, but aside from that — market have gone straight up since morning. That being said, and if the perception is war chances are dissipating, shouldn’t oil retreat? That’s my bet.

But judging by the widespread Iranian response to the death of their beloved general, I have to believe they will try something. I could be wrong, but this doesn’t feel over. And with Trump’s crazy talk of bombing cultural sites, it is likely to escalate.

Presently there are gains in Utes, REITs, apparel stores, and select biotech and of course SAAS. Software stocks had not led during Q4 of 2019 and really need to stabilize here for the sake of their wonderful shareholders. The SAAS basket I created in Exodus is up 1.7% right now, led by CRWD.

So what to do?

I still think hedging and being in heavy cash makes sense. I cannot give the market a green light with all of the issues lurking in the shadows. Enjoy the rally but understand it can change with just one tweet.

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Big Move in Gold; Futures Soft

I just so happen to be long GLD and RGLD in my Quant portfolio, an overall 15% weighting which should take the edge off today’s decline to come. Don’t look now, but Gold is busting loose again and it’s worth chasing. This is a 10yr consolidation attempting to create a new range. We first needs to get through higher levels from 2012-2013 and then we’re potentially off to the races.

And it’s a long road to travel.

Gold +1.6% at the moment

By my estimation, 2,000 is the number to shoot for and if we get past that… Let’s get past that first and then let’s talk.

Futures are off -61 on Nasdaq. I am loaded up with 3x inverse ETFs in my trading and will be tempted to close them out today. But if this Iranian situation continues, markets might want lower. The first week of January is important and this is truly a fucked way to begin the year. Nevertheless, we must remain vigilant for algorithmic fueled reversals, based off news flow and Presidential tweets.

In case you haven’t already, sign up for the StockLabs aka Exodus 2.0 beta trials. We are working as fast as we can and hope to have this out soon.

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