18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,956 Blog Posts

Markets Appear to Be Doing Nothing — But Are Being Fucking Destroyed

All of your PLUG type stocks have been dispatched into hades, where the Gods will torture them for eternity. The rotation is taking a severe turn now, as AAPL and FB gallivant higher in the face of appalling losing in small capped tech and healthcare.

Listen to me, as I am now old and odious looking, it’s over. The time to buy dips has long past and soon you will see a truly horrible spectacle in the form of massive margin calls amongst the cadre of Reddit Retards who opted to poke fun at the suits on Wall. You can never win, and shall never win, and you will soon learn that lesson in the most harshest of terms.

I abided by this tenets and only shed 11bps today, trade a little, booked a few gains — mostly nothing. I am 65% cash, heavily allocated into large cap tech, and think of the market as an organism in transition.

It was fun. It was the most fun I had trading stocks since 2000. The money I made isn’t important, not more than the memories and the feeeeeeeling of certitude. Nothing feels more better to a man than certainty, the confidence to manifest his destiny without fear of retribution. But it’s over now. Best to get back to the gym and train for hard times, as this whirlwind of sell orders readies to heave over and spill guts all over the place.

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Cryptos have broken down again and the resumption of the distribution in the bubble stocks has increased to a level that is almost certain to trigger margin calls and a cascading effect in the market, the likes of 2014, reminiscent of a time and of a place that nearly killed me.

You do not want to keep pressing the envelope. What you should want to do is cast aside any notion of success in the bubble world, while embedding yourselves in risk averse assets.

Early this morning I took a look at the tape, hated it, and went to 100% cash. This is easy for me to do, especially when the rallies are too hard fought and the collapses frequent. The next trap will be an oversold bounce, which most will miss because it entails buying into the sinking Titanic gif. If you try to catch the wave as it crests, you’ll find yourselves, well, crestfallen.

Odds are we bounce this week, after a morbid decline. My Bubble Basket is off by more than 3%, and this is becoming all too familiar. This is not a market that can be relied upon. Therefore, and this goes without saying, your best bets are all intra-day, which is also hard to do now with volatility baring down.

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Quietly Quiet

We are basing here on low volume, in what can be described as a “boring as fuck tape.” I vacillated all day in a tight range and ended near my lows, +50bps. I am 23% cash and feeeeel exposed to this market — because it’s acting differently. What is different about it is the normal vibes I am getting. This is the way the market used to be prior to the COVID induced ramp.

I don’t have strong convictions here and could only say to you to keep stops tight and positions sizes small and scalp gains as fast as you can. The idea of continuation might be a journey into naivety.

On the issue of Exodus — we are currently closed for new subs and will not open back for a period undetermined. We have launched Stocklabs and will be entering beta soon. After we get thru our beta, we will launch it for the general public.

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Do Nothing Market on Exceptionally Low Volume; Eat a Sandwich

This is the perfect day to take off. Nothing at all will happen. Bill Hwang is finished selling his $5 trillion book and Credit Suisse is all but wiped out. Markets are doing nothing on incredibly low volume, reminiscent of a jar of lazy molasses spilling over the side of a dining room table onto a plush rug. You will find yourselves cleaning said rug for a long long time should you choose to do it.

I am widely position amongst a pastiche of Archegos names and will add to them should we dip. Mid-afternoon AMAT had sanguine comments during its ‘analyst day’, which caused semis and tech to drop. I don’t care what they said, for I know the certainty of the semiconductor business to be profoundly bullish, rooted in supply shortages. Pricing will improve and margins will expand, leading to high prices.

Inevitably, the market will collapse. But in the meantime, there are higher prices to both achieve and enjoy. My best guess is for the rally to continue, until we’re all tired bored sad fat and bald.

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At Some Point, We Will Have No Choice But to Drink the Blood of Bill Hwang

Margin liquidations are a painful thing to endure, if you’ve ever been on that side of the ledger. Having your margin clerk burst thru your sheetrock and into your office with immediate demands for a wire, else get market ordered the fuck out is something I do not wish on my worst enemies.

‘Tis the case with Bill Hwang, lunatic from the nice family office named Archegos.

Credit Suisse is feeling the pangs of their own stupidity, as this blackhole once known as Archegos swallows it whole. I am reminded of innumerable occasions when FORCED LIQUIDATIONS caused disruptions in the tape, only to later on revert back to the mean. The same rules apply here. The stocks Bill was forced to sell will be the biggest winners. The only question is, when?

On the list of stocks to buy is GSX, TAL, FTCH, VIAC, DISCA, IQ and perhaps a bit more. But that’s a start.

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I kept my TZA hedge, but have ample longs to offset it for what I believe will be a breakout day for shit stocks tomorrow. We traded without verve for most of the session, until the last 30 mins, where we saw breadth and scale increase. I am pleased with today’s 40bps win, in spite of underperforming markets. Truth is, I was in the wrong stocks, had to adjust, and ended up in profit. Not much else I could do, as the bands were tight all day and the places to trade rips limited.

I do not think the momo stocks will be back for good. But I suspect they’re due for a reprieve.


Top pick: Ethereum

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BREAKING: The Market Actually Sucks Quite A Lot Today

I’m performing as if the market was up 0.2% — because it actually is up just 0.2%. The general indices point to Grande returns, NASDAQ +200, Dow +400 — but underneath the hood is more 2014 esque cataclysms, stocks panged down with the Devil’s Fork.

Breadth is still negative and small caps are getting drilled. I took out a hedge to sacrifice my money to the Gods. Hopefully we swim higher with alacrity from here. But I doubt it. Oil is in the dumps and the retards from Reddit are having their guts strewn across the tape. This market is perfectly designed to destroy the GAMMA SQUEEZE crew, as they leverage out their family offices into oblivion.

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A Stock Pickers Market

NASDAQ is +160, yet many high beta trading fuckers are down. This solidifies by belief that the rotation is going to last longer and be chaotic than most believe. I am barely up in a general tape that looks like a casino win. Meanwhile in the real world, market breadth is just 52%, meaning 48% of stocks are DOWN on this grandiose day.

Strength is found concentrated in industrials, coal and steel plays, crypto derivatives, and of course reopening trades such as movie theaters. I am long AMC — not because movies are back — but because people are so desperate to go out they went to see Kong vs Godzilla — which was fucking stupid.

I am trying my best to avoid murderholes — but the trend is clear and you’d be wise to avoid holding small micro cap piece of shit stocks for too long.

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In my younger years a story like this would’ve infuriated me — big sloppy fat cat hedge funders making a mockery of “the market” — messing it up for the rest of us. But now with seasoning on me and a lot more knowledge, I can tell you without equivocation that the events of Archegos aren’t outliers — but the very thing and behavior that drives Wall Street in the first place. People are so upset when they read about a new scandal. They huff and puff and blow their own homes down. You enjoyed Softbank’s gamma squeeze when it happened because you were long stocks. You enjoyed the Fed rigging of the markets, even taking short position on the VIX; but now you don’t like this because “OMG HE USED 500% LEVERAGE.”

Wake the fuck up pal. You’re on the outside looking in. The retail clown trader and his GME squeezes only worked because some fuck head on Wall Street decided to help. The big money is bigger than ever and they can do whatever the fuck they want.

Case in point.

I have long since accepted this is just the way things work around here and no longer threaten to storm the capitol with pitched forks anymore, for the great many injustices committed in front of me and how the double standards are emblazoned into my face without shame. It’s not a personal affront upon my person, but how the system of entitlement works.

You don’t like it? Make a billion dollars of personal wealth, call Goldman and ask for 500% leverage, and lose $110b for your Family Office in 5 days —  just like Archegos —  and then tell me how entitled you feeeeel.

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Booked a Solid Return Post Raping

Things were going pleasantly inside Stocklabs and I was trading like a real pro. I was made to look professional, zipping in and out of stocks for sport and profit. Then I stumbled into the Playboy mansion and was summarily raped, shed 10% in a doubled sized position. I was also then capsized in two others stocks for 9% drubbings. Seeing the market moving higher, I immediately stopped trying to trade like a pro and instead took most of my cash to possess a market position, slightly geared towards alpha.

By 2:30pm I waned and was heaving over like a fat pig, up only 35bps.

But then into the final hour I wore the armor of a champion, went out there and applied leverage to my account and came out ahead by 166bps.

Why do I tell you this?

Not to boast. I am reminding you that there are times you need to step aside and let the market move and there are other times when you’re tuned in and you can outrun the market. Most times I am able to outrun the market. But over the past two weeks I have shed 10% from the highs. That’s not much, especially since I am +160% YTD — but I felt it. The money isn’t important but the confidence is important. When confidence is high, trades come easy and the ideas flow. We are only human.

Stocklabs has launched only for Exodus users and we are working thru the beta trial, fixing bugs and adding features in preparation for a general audience launch. I can tell you without equivocation, it is the only thing I will ever use when trading and once you’re inside you will appreciate all of the detailed effort we put into it.

I am exhausted and have been running a chaotic schedule. I am back to cutting and at the gym or tennis 5 days per week. I depart for Savannah in mid April and could use a vacation.

NO BOOZE, NO CARBS, NO FUN — just work.

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