18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,146 Blog Posts

Small Caps Under Pressure — Good Spot to Step In?

Short answer: maybe

We have a true dichotomy here with tera caps +23bps sporting 64% breadth while pennies and small caps plunge lower by 1.5%, sporting 25% breadth. In other words, the Reddit crowd BTFO again, as AMC descends expeditiously into hell.

I took some market exposure here, but in real names, larger capped, lowering my cash to 60%.

There isn’t much to trade out there and the volume is more or less dead. Trying to fish in these waters is difficult and for the most part very boring. Perhaps the best approach to this kind of tape is to skip over individual equities and instead opt for larger positions on macro themes, via ETFs.

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Weak Market; Defensive Stocks Take Center Stage

Your local hedge fund manager is busy on vacation snorting cocaine, leaving junior at the turret with strict instructions not to fuck things up. Junior is scared, so he sold all of the risky stuff and is now buying soap companies and gold in order to reduce volatility.

This of course is a seasonal occurrence, especially during good times, to see junior bumble his way through the warmer climes lest get fired. For the rest of us, we are victim to summer malaise, a time and place where not much is happening. It’s almost better to not trade at all — almost. Every so often a fierce summer rally will occur, like last year, making it all the most worthwhile.

Early going I am 95% cash, +40bps, fortunate to have had some good stocks into today.

As the day jogs on, I will of course trade and trade well and increase my gains.

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Sleepily Drifting Towards Another Bout of Extreme Winship

Markets were racked with uncertainty today, but I managed +245bps — thanks to keeping my book small (80% cash) and being quick about my trades. I had a good start, got as high as +320bps, faded a bit in the later afternoon — but closed strong.

Some out there are proposing doom soon, but it’s simply not in the cards. ‘Tis July, a sleepy time of year for both bull and for bear. Expect more drift less weariness for the balance of Summer, only accentuated with real downward pressure in September — giving way to inevitability.

Meanwhile, enjoy your vaccines and looming lockdowns and all of the wonderful trimmings of society, as she presses the faces of her citizens into the fire — docile slave-cattle obedient thanks to poverty and a penchant for degeneracy.

If the headlines of the day depresses you, find solace in the fact, as a species, the human-kind chose this direction. Who are we to interfere with evolution, or in our case, de-evolution — casting downwards from the pinnacle of society earmarked and emblazoned with financial impropriety and the dissolution of logic based laws.

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More Dreadful Trading Amidst Wanton Uncertainty

Widespread rioting and looting in S Africa and that mess of a nation on the verge of race wars. Delta COVID cases on the rise, especially in places FULLY VACCINATED like Israel lends to the fear factor of what is to be expected when the sun isn’t shining on us and the seasonal flu braces for impact. Boomers can’t place children at risk fast enough with their vaccine mandates, in order to save their own lives mostly due to a life filled with degeneracy and gluttony.

People love beauty but instead create ugliness of their one true temple, traversing the planet like fat slobs skipping thru heart attacks, succored by angioplasties and echocardiograms — angry at 12 yr olds with zero risk of dying from COVID for opting not to vaccinate — all the while stuffing their disgusting fat faces with salami sandwiches.

CALAMITY beckons just around the bend and very soon the time for games will be over — as we tip and heave over into a morass of stupidity — egged on by malevolent devils whose sole purpose and goal for us all is to poison the land with slave-cattle — subservient and obedient consumers of high fructose organic grass fed candied bars.

In other news, I am +285bps, 70% cash.

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Let Me Explain Something To Do

On a long enough timeline betting against Le Fly leaves you in a very precarious situation — destitute and transgendered.

I stand before you a very victorious man.

Let me show you how my day started, pre- market booking CLNN for +29% profit, purchased yesterday before the close based off a volume delta spike using Stocklabs tools.

Then I sold BCTX +2%, X -2.3%, SKIN +0.5%.

I was 70% cash, so I then dove back into the tape with a small portion of my cash, always keeping 65%+ of my account in cash — because the overall market was weak.

CLDX +3.47%
FWP +3.2%
LX +2.4%
SOXL +0.12%
HUIZ +5.6%
UPWK +4.9%
THMO +4.44%

And then an unfortunate loss of 4.4% in LUMN — placing me at +250bps for the session so far.

My plans are to continue to do exactly what I am doing here, pressing my God given rights afforded to me by the Gods, in order to gratiate myself with winnings and gravitas.

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Trading Back to Flat — Winning

I more or less took the day off and did nothing until 2pm, at which point I leisurely entered several trades and got myself back to even for the day, erasing a 100bps deficit. While this all seems uneventful, I will tell you I feel quite satisfied.

In my other accounts, I had a much more profitable day — spring boarding higher and enjoying the many luxuries of Stocklabs market timing algos.

The plan for tomorrow is more of the same, small, leisurely, type trades with a pointed goal of small pastoral gains. I am not looking for ribald returns, the type of gains one might scoff at for being uncouth. No, instead, “The Fly” will comport himself as a gentleman should and paper hand trade his way towards elitist styled returns.

Over in crypto land, dinosaurs are eating up longs by the hundreds. It’s a landscape filled with pain and charred buildings. I can only look at it with sympathy and continue my plan of acquiring more ETH every month, as this decline worsens.

Markets are strong and I am even stronger.

Good day.

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Bogged Just a Little

I woke up to a minor bogging this morning, off by 80bps. The general market is flaccid, so I had to sell many things to get off from margin and cut losses. Typically when down in the morning, at least recently, I remain down all day. The opportunities to trade out from a hole is harder now that all the momo stocks are for shit. I keep catching myself trying to get back into families names, only to be disappointed.

Just about every morning I’ll sell what I bought the previous session, but I’m holding onto a long list of names now, fully invested, because for the most part they’re market perform names and I don’t have better alternatives.

The tape is weak at 50% breadth, but no irredeemable. I’ll likely take it easy for the next few hours and then press harder into the afternoon hours.

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An Update on My Time Machine

There is a big difference between the Exodus and Stocklabs mean reversion algos. There were some things that needed to be addressed with the Exodus algo and I made sure thru painstaking testing with SL — they were up to my standards. The net result was LESS longer duration algo calls — but more precise. Last week for the second time in a year we saw our 12mo algos produce an OS signal. For those only long QQQ’s — this is a head scratcher. But lend me the generosity to explain to you that most stocks had been treading woefully lower and that is the market, when not balanced by market cap, not the pin action of 5 stocks.

Here are the stats for our 12mo OS signal, over the past 12 months. We measure it against the SPY.

Our 3 mo algo is far more sensitive and produces more scores. For record keeping, we only count the first signal in a 10 day cycle.

Visuals of the 12mo.

3 mo.

We do this for all stocks and sectors and industries too. One of the comforting advantages of this is to have something systematic that works without emotions. I cannot tell you how many times I’ve doubted these signals over the past 14 years, always prone to think “this time is different.” Truth is, what I produced here isn’t exactly rocket science. Humans are predictable and form certain habits. If only we can measure those habits during times of duress and make money off the insecurities of those without a Stocklabs subscription.

If curious about the platform, enjoy the free content on the Stocklabs YT channel, produced by one of our members, Quartermaster CitizenSquared.

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Traded Stupid — Won Stupid Prize

The day started off very calm, TUTTO BENE. I was up between 20-50bps, enjoying life — chatting, eating, drinking. I was mostly cash and doing small things — but soon got lured back into stocks because I was jealous of the BIG things that were happening all around me.

What transpired next is classic chicanery. Overall, the market kept going up but the sewers where I was playing got BOMBED the fuck out — skeletons everywhere. I lost my gains and more and soon found myself down 100bps due to a doubled sized GRNQ position gone awry.

In an attempt to offset this, I dove back into the fucking market with everything and more — leveraging up 140% in high graded bigger cap stocks. I ended down 65bps and find myself in a trench coat naked underneath, ready to flash the market come Monday.

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Good Sirs

I speak to you from comfort and leisure. Mother Fly is long gone back to Brooklyn to walk amongst the floods and the mice — whereas I am here banking coin in a most undisturbed manner.

There are 3 core aspects to Stocklabs aka Cocklabs.

  1. Social aspect of trading with another 1,000 lunatics.
  2. Massive data and analytics. Profound advancement in screener and real time volume alert triggers.
  3.  Mean reversion algos

Back in the old days, the mean reversion is what you paid for. Now we have delved into various other venues — such as Quantitative investments and real time intelligence algos built for momentum. But, at the heart of Stocklabs is the mean reversion algos. When the markets tilt too far in any one way — they kick in and tell you when it happens and what should happen following it.

Yesterday we flagged oversold on our 12 mo algorithm, a very rare event indeed. I even tweeted it yesterday, much to the chagrin of short sellers and bears alike — who took exception to this idea.

Voila — SL was right again.

At the moment, I am trading light +30bps, but +200bps in my YOLO that took SSO into today. All around — another good day.

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