It seemed like such an easy trade, getting long $TLT ahead of the most expected Fed cut in years, yet here we are with rates soaring again at 4.13%, especially emboldened by recent strong inflation data.
Old sport, this was a crowded trade and now you’re trapped inside of it, hooked by the allure of easy money. But nothing is easy, right? Ultimately rates will come down; but we have time to fuck with bond longs in the meantime. Plus why are you in bonds when you could be in stocks?
Early on we have an electric market in cryptos and semis and weakness in basic materials. The rally is very narrow amongst the Tera caps and we don’t have much diversity amongst today’s winners.
I do like the financials, broadly speaking, especially with Trump leading in polls. And of course it’s hard to ignore semis, which are once again at record highs. But if I had to narrow my focus on one place of interest it is $BTC, leaning towards a full breakout in a month that has an average return of +22% since 2014.
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