“The Fly” Wins Again

Markets are down 400. Clowns are getting their noses punched off clean. The Fly is 80% cash, 100% win. My stocks are up lads. I fear nothing.

Is this a good time to buy stocks?

No.

The 10yr is down an astounding 13bps to 1.70%. The Xmas rout is upon you. Santa has been detained and Krampus is coming for you and your children. Brace yourselves.

Trump is doing the fucking rounds this morning. Let me recap for those of you bewildered by the about face in futures, presently down 37 NASDAQs.

Fuck France.

In comments to the press ahead of a NATO meeting in London on Tuesday, Trump said Macron’s words had been “very, very nasty” to the other 28 member states. He added that it was “very insulting” for the French president to label NATO as brain dead. “You can’t go around saying that about NATO,” Trump added.

The U.S. president said relations between the U.S. and European NATO members were not causing any divide, with the exception of France.

“I do see France breaking off. I’m looking at him and I’m saying he (Macron) needs protection more than anybody and I see him breaking off, so I’m a little surprised at that,” said the American leader.

And tax the shit out of them.

On Monday, the White House had said it may impose duties of up to 100% on $2.4 billion in imports of French Champagne, cheese and other luxury goods.

Phase 1 of the China trade deal agreement never happened and might now have to wait until 2020 before getting inked. What did I say?

“In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right,” Trump told reporters earlier on Tuesday. When asked if he had a deal deadline, he added: “I have no deadline, no … In some ways, I think it is better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth.”

BONUS: Fuck S. America too.

Trump announced Monday the U.S. will restore steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from Brazil and Argentina. He also suggested the move was necessary because Brazil and Argentina had been “presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies.” However, in recent months, both countries have been seeking to strengthen their respective currencies against the dollar.

To think we’re at record highs amidst all of this craziness makes me think craziness is all that was required for record highs.

Big fucking happenings after the market closed you faggots. BOLD got ripped out for a 102% premium. First thing tomorrow, from my vantage point, lemmings will spill in sloppily into the sector trying to gamble their way towards greatness. Obviously, it is the duty and the responsibility of every trader to partake, which is why I am here now — WASTING MY FUCKING TIME, speaking to the likes of you.

Doing some ancillary searches, I have several gene editing stocks on my fucking radar. Here goes. Feel free to get off your asses and partake in this orgy of lists. I’m gonna add CRSPR stocks in there — just because I can.

EDIT, NVTA, BLUE, CRSP, ABEO, ADVM, AGTC, ANCN, AVRO, AXGT, BMRN, FCSC, FIXX, GNPX, KRYS, MGTX, ONCE, ORTX, PRVL, QURE, VYGR, XENE, MBIO.

Obviously you’re gonna want to further screen this to exclude piece of shit low volume boiler room stocks, pitched heavily by stock broker faggots. Buy what’s moving, not what you think might move. Trust me, I am a Dr.

People with money understand this is when you step aside and count your blessings. You survived an entire year of fucking Trump trade war lunacy and came out ok. As a matter of fact, your gains are extraordinary. This is where you sell and relax for the balance of the year, comfortable in your pastoral settings, amidst the country and the birds and the fucking trees.

On the other hand, in the housing tenement inside of the squalor of a city, is a fool margined out x 1 billion at Robinhood, trading like a jackass in the hopes of escaping bullet rounds each and every night. You hide behind 40 ounces of malted liquor and trade in the most indecorous stocks around.

At the moment, those stocks are all in biotech. Do not ask why. It is what it is (extra Irishman).

So I bought 3 of them, reducing my cash to 80%. No big deal. On one hand I feel the wheels can roll off this wagon, tipping it off the cliff and into the crevasse. On the others, there is a chance the new money third estate musters enough verve to get this fucker jumping again. Plus there’s always Trump and his shit. No one knows!

I hope I’m wrong and markets rally tomorrow. In the event I am now, however, I am prepared to buy the fucking dips.

End of year business. Men do not want to risk it all — just for another percent or two. Make no mistake, this sell off is stupid. The rationale, based on manufacturing data, is laughable.

Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to contract last month, the Institute for Supply Management said. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.1 in November. That’s below an estimate of 49.4. Stocks hit their session lows after the data was released.

But there is much to lose for managers who rely upon the calendar year to get paid — so they will most assuredly be selling into any fear. Taking a quick gander at the market, there is an overabundance of it now. Consider the fact that low brow biotech hand grenades were the leading sector into today and now look at SAAS, -3.8% for the session.

Here’s the other thing that makes no sense — the dollar is getting smashed and bond yields soaring, +5bps on the 10yr. So both bonds and stocks are getting lit, but oil is up. Try to figure that out. You’d think gold would be up, but it’s not — down. But gold miners are UP. Confused yet? It’s by design.

When markets get confusing like this, at the same time I see high beta stocks getting routed, I step aside.

I am now 95% cash in my trading. My Quant has bee liquidated, aside from a few stocks, and will be re-allocated later on today, with a new stratagem.

Who gives a shit anyway? Markets are rigged, not rigged, makes no difference to me. Do you want to know the type of person I am? How about a generous and charitable gent, cavorting with morons online in the hopes money can enable you to marry up and improve upon your fucked bloodlines?

“The Fly” is not only a man of the people for the people, but he’s making bloodlines better. Without coin, no woman in her right god damned mind would marry you. But with coin, all of a sudden, you look interesting and with that interest comes babies — offspring is gifted with a +10 on the olde IQ and athletic ACTN3 speed gene granted by the Gods — making your family bloodline stronger and better.

Thank me later.

Futures are +42 Nasdaqs and I have a 20% position in CLVS — which I am telling you only because I know the inevitability of the stock’s trajectory and because I am a very hospitable man. You’d be wise to follow me and stop trying to learn how to trade. “The Fly” feeds hungry investors fish and never requires nor begs them to learn how to do it themselves. Trading, like speed racing, isn’t for everyone. You either have the trait or you don’t.

Why, you wouldn’t pretend to have the ability to race in the olympics would you? Then why bother trying to learn how to trade? Rigged, scam.

Dr. Fly is the truth. CLVS — write it down.

My Quant is up 15% this year, which is a solid year by any measures. But compared to the SPY it sucks. The reason is simple — bifurcation of stocks occurred several months ago, first punishing high fliers and then certain sectors broke out while others did nothing.

Let’s examine what occurred in November.

I happened to be 20% weighted in GLD — bogged out for 4.3%. That hurt tremendously. Then, as the rules go, I had to buy 2 stocks per sector — which is a normal thing to do. But that only works when markets are actually doing well over a broad spectrum. Markets have diverged wildly and are only showing gains in certain sectors.

I have two Quants to choose from– Growth and Value. For November, I was 100% growth and the raw data was great — up 5.4% vs 3.4% for the SPY. Then I choose two stocks per sector, rated by Sharpe ratio, and build a portfolio. That’s where the problems occurred.

Here are the returns for my growth Quant per sector (raw pool vs my holdings)

Basic Materials: +0.79% / +1.53%
Consumer Goods: +6.94% / +7.6%
Financials: +2.77% /+2.1%
Healthcare: +5.8% / +2.5%
Industrial Goods: +18% (only two stocks in pool) / -0.66%
Services: +1.76% / +4.27%
Tech: +7.1% / +7.77%
Utilities: +8% / +1.8%

As of now, my Quant was only +1.2% for November. Without my gold position, which was implemented as a sort of hedge against markets, I’d be up 3%. If I only bought the highest rated stocks without forcing diversification, my gains would be fucking outrageous. Starting this month, at least for a time, I am going to experiment with buying only the highest rated stocks.

As for the GLD and TLT hedges that fall into place when markets underperform, I am going to eliminate the portion and only put it on when GLD outperforms SPY. As it is now, the trade lingers month to month until the SPY beats GLD for months in a row. I think this strategy is flawed. For now, when GLD and/or TLT beat SPY — there will be an automatic 10% position in the asset and that asset will be maintained the following month only if GLD and/or TLT beat the SPY again.

In short, the way the Quant will be managed now can in fact lead it to being 100% long tech stocks, which might be an err, but the risk will be mitigated by the holding period — which is only 1 month.

I had a big contest inside of Exodus in November, me pitted against some Pole from Chicago. He traded well, but not often. Quite honestly, his fortune was helped by a freak trade in CRC. If not for that, I am certain he’d be shining my shoes now. But men do not make excuses and they own up to defeats. It appears I lost the contest. It came down to the wire, me 4x long CLVS needing a $15 print with minutes left on the clock. It got there, miraculously, but then faded a few cents.

The accountants are working furiously to get the final tally.

One thing is for sure, Le Fly will have his revenge — and when he does — it will be served cold.

The CLVS trade was supposed to be quick. It was running and I got in at $15.75. It ran to $16.5 and I didn’t sell, and then it collapsed. I ended up applying a Martingale Stratagem, buying as it knifed lower. I got my basis down to $14.88 and held into the close. It traded as low as $13.5, at which point I wanted to die.

On the issue of BLUE. I was 50% weighted in the stock as of late Wednesday. The rationale: I wanted to beat Diddy inside of the Pelican Room. So when the stock ran $4 at the open and I was up on Diddy — the logical thing to do was to sell — right? WRONG. See, if I won by just 0.2%, he wouldn’t have to shine my shoes. In order to get him to shine, I needed at least 100bps. I ended up selling more than a dollar lower, giving up my lead. So that’s when I bought CLVS, and a bunch of other shit, in an effort to make a last minute come from behind rapish win.

Sadly, time ran out and it appears I am the loser.

THE RESULTS: 4.98% to 4.83%

All month long I’ve been in a trading contest with my arch nemesis Diddy inside of Exodus. It all started way back when as he talked shit, so I challenged him and here were are. As of Wednesday, Lord Diddy was up a bit on me, so like any normal person would do — I then decided to take a 50% weighted position in BLUE. For those watching it, I could only imagine the sheer level of entertainment. But for me, honestly, it wasn’t much fun.

I hadn’t overweighted a position like that in ages, perhaps never. I didn’t think about it yesterday, but felt the knife twisting inside my stomach this morning. In the pre-market it was up nearly a dollar, but futures were lower — so I was tentative. Then it busted loose out from the gates, up more than $4, and the Gods smiled upon me. I ended up selling a little bit lower — but booked a 3.5% profit nonetheless.

I believe we’re neck to neck now, with Evil Diddy with a slight lead. I’ve traded twice as much as him, reminiscent of the Wile E Coyote vs The Road Runner. Both of us are up pretty nicely for the month — in the range of 4.7-5.5%. The day is still young so I have some trading to do.

I added to a BYND position I took on Wednesday and ended up selling the whole thing for +3%. I am massively in cash, after selling BLUE, and relieved to have that pressure off my chest.

DEVELOPING…

When I was a young man I didn’t know how to cook and used to rely upon others to feed me and feed me well. When I was hungry I was at the mercy of these people to make me a meal. I had a very 1950s relationship with food and I was a greater man because of it.

And then a few years ago I was thinking to myself “Fly, you are a master ace stock trader — you can do anything and anything at all.” So then I began a long journey of becoming a master chef by way of Youtube. Gone are the days of having to visit cooking school and pay for classes. Nowadays you can learn a lot more simply by watching YouTube, which is what I did and now I am a master chef. Along that process, I’ve also become a master bartender, or mixologist — and am able to concoct just about any dish or drink in existence.

What does this have to do with Thanksgiving? Well, I will tell you. This being the Super Bowl of cooking, Master Chef Fly will be presiding over the kitchen today, making masterful dishes using masterful techniques. Since I do not drink booze anymore, I have no need for my mixologist skillset, and will leave those skills idle and instead re-activate my barista talents — which were acquired about a decade ago.

On the menu today is turkey, but not a whole turkey but two turkey breasts — because only savages eat dark meat. Also, I am making my world renowned sage sausage stuffing, green beans, candied sweet potatoes, cranned berried sauce, mashed potatoes, corn, and copious amounts of gravy. Last night I made a pumpkin pie and will be eating it throughout the day.

As for the holiday shopping season is concerned, dare I suggest buying 10 copies of Fly’s two short books? They’re instant classics, written by me with care, detailing my life as a young punk stockbroker during the dot com mania.

Off to cook some meat.