18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,033 Blog Posts


The gains are quite egregious. This was an area of the market strewn with dead corpses, now enlivened by first MONKEY POX, and then abortion plays, and now whatever is moving. We’ve entered the arena of the ribald and this sort of risk never dies in a day.

Over the past two weeks, these FUCKERS have done best.


We are looking at gains upwards of 50% and we are also seeing it continue today, in an otherwise moribund/uneventful tape.

Today’s chicanery is taking place in BBI (+89%), ALNA (+211%), AEZS (+69%) and SLNO (+20%).

I am trying my hand at one: LXRX — not because I like the company — but because I’m a degenerate gambloor.

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I sold it all, up 35bps for the session as a gentleman should in a dastardly tape, such as this. I have decided to work less today — due to UNFORSEEN events that have unfolded, which have, in large part, made me furious.

As a boy I had a sharp temper and once threw my best friend out from a tree, as a result. I’d get so mad I’d turn red (yes I am white) and use my anger to punch the faces of other people. As I grew older I fought less because it’s degenerate; and as an adult — I have yet to partake in a match of fist o’ cuffs. But sometimes I do feel like it. Deep down, we are all base creatures who fall victim to carnal desires. Although I am, admittedly, quite good at temperance and pretty much never fall prey to vice.

That being said, FUCK OFF.

I am in cash because this tape is dreadful. I am already up. I am in a bad mood. And lastly, I am suspicious of bulls wanting to pick up live grenades — because they’re assholes and deserve to get their limbs blown off.

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And Just Like That… The Commodity Trade is Back On

All of the finest oils and Ags are running hot again, following several weeks of recession fears and sharply lower prices. It seems, at least for the time being, we are MOST concerned about the supplies of grain and energy, as the Russian war wages on — threatening the very existence of Europe.

I suppose the market thought the Middled East would pump more crude for us — but it now appears that’s not the case. The CEO of Shell said today the Middled East has barely any more capacity left — and that we should prepare for doom. That last part was a bit of paraphrasing on my behalf.

But what are we talking about in late June, as the warmer climes grace us with their pleasant presence. WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD to Autumn and Winter in Berlin with the Russian war machine potentially engaged with NATO at that time. I would dare say, me being bold and all, the Russians might not supply their enemies with fuel under such a scenario. Without NATO’s engagement into Ukraine, it’s over. The war has already been lost —- since Russia now controls territory in UKR that makes up 80% of their GDP.

On that backdrop, and any backdrop that doesn’t include immediate peace talks with Russia, both oil and grain are good bets heading into what arguably could be the last season of normalcy in Europe for sometime.

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We crashed the fucking close and I finished at session highs +120bps. Are you surprised? Well you shouldn’t. This is standard stuff during market collapses. I quite literally cannot be stopped and even when wrong, I have tweaked my methods to reduce churn greatly and also risk. My variance is low and my sharpe is high.

In short, I have never traded better in my life and given the circumstances — +3.3% for June — I find myself calm and relaxed and in complete control of my fate. If you do not feeeel the same, you’re likely taking too much risk and not calibrated correctly with the market.

Are you seeing the market — or just seeing what you want to see?

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You thought it was fun and games — but now you’re swimming in capital losses. I did warn you not to get involved with that. Early this morning you were ENTREATED to a strong market and now you are presented with a deleterious one. PREPARE FOR LOWER PRICES AMIDST BLACK CLOUDS AND WHISTLING CHARDS OF METAL.

With the NASDAQ down over 300, I have no desire to jump in now into the close, which will be crashed.

We are quite literally in the 2nd inning of this SELF IMPOSED energy embargo. The ramifications of such stupidity, plus the loss of PAX AMERICANA, cannot be priced in.

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You’re all making ribald gains in your biotech piece of shit stocks, aren’t ya? The war rages and winter looms yet your appeal to risk aversion is zero — because you’re a spoiled little boy who has been coddled your entire trading career by the dicksuckers at the Federal Reserve.

But guess what?

The party is over pal and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

As I wrote this, oil stocks are screaming higher, based off the very minor issue of EUROPE BEING WITHOUT FUCKING HEAT this coming winter.

The gig is up. Your schemes have been laid bare. The beginning of the end is now.

I’m long some refiners and still short banks, extra salty because that trade isn’t going my way.

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Europe Needs More Oil Now: SORRY NO OIL FOR YOU

Yesterday in a staged yet candid moment, Macron made a direct appeal to Biden for more oil, informing him the Saudis were unable to produce much more.

While it would be nice for us to give Europe more oil, they really ought to remember we are facing a much graver risk than mere Russian artillery shelling. We are facing world ending global warming. As such, we cannot and will not produce more oil for them, whilst at the same time we will also ramp up the war in the Ukraine and push Europe to war with Russia. While they might need more oil to move around their small little environmentally friendly armies, in the big scheme of things — the faster Russia is able to de-industrialize all of Europe the faster we might reduce our carbon footprint and save the planet.

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Before I moved in the central air busted and I needed to replace it. The first night at the house the refrigerator broke and I can’t get a new one until 7/6. Today while the painters painted, one of the young lads doing ceilings on stilts had a fucking seizure and fell straight down into a desk and almost killed himself. It was a terrible thing to bear witness to and reminded me of how lucky I am to be healthy. I often get caught up in the rat race of needing to do things because MUH WORK or MUHHHH goals and I forget to enjoy life.

Truth is, and this should come as no surprise to anyone who knows me, I stopped trying to find joy in life a long time ago and now just focus on short term achievements as a weight station towards some sort of equanimity.

If I fell off stilts once per mouth in an epileptic seizure I’d probably just blow my brains out and get done with it. But not everyone is as grim as me, which is probably why I want the banks to collapse. You see, it’s all connected.

I made 31bps today and remain heavily short banks.

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More Pain Ahead For the Banks

If commodities was one area of long during the coming fires, the banks are the opposite — the exact place to avoid.

Let me show you something.

Those are the MONTHLY returns of BAC during the 1973-74 recession. Those add up to roughly -70%. At the present, BAC is DOWN 27% YTD. Should we cascade into a full blown stagflation bear — expect to see banks at the vanguard lower. They encompass everything that is wrong and are exposed a half dozen places that can hurt them.

OF COURSE I am talking my book, now long FAZ in size. But even after I close this trade out and move onto bigger and better things — you should expect to see shares of XLF dive the fuck lower as America descends into full blow depression.

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The only area of the market that has a chance to make it out of the great fires of 2022 are war stocks and commodities. We haven’t even seen a single German freeze to death due to lack of Russian gas. As NATO preps to increase its army to 400,000 from 30,000, it is inevitable that Russia and America will find itself in mortal combat by Fall. At that time, thanks to EU reliance on Russian energy — the entirety of Europe will be glassed over in ice.

If you’re not trading and interested in daily moves and instead prefer longer time horizons, I can think of no better area to “bet” on the market than energy and food.

The market might be down today — but commodities are way up and I would not be surprised to see an upside reversal predicate on nothing more than boredom and lack of grim news. The news is out there — but the market isn’t interested right now.

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