18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,441 Blog Posts

Heavily Long Olde Man Stocks Into the Summer Doldrums

I’m not bearish, per se — but I definitely don’t think we have large dicked gains ahead of us. As a matter of fact, if I woke up to the market down 900 points, based off some trade war bullshit news, I wouldn’t be surprised. I don’t awaken from my slumber with the idea of stocks being so undervalued that I must convert into a foaming mouthed bull-tard moron. No, I simply play the tape for what it is, with a deep under-current of extreme hatred not too much beneath the bubbly exterior (this is me being bubbly).

I have a shotgun to the face pick and I really want to give it to you now — but I won’t. Is that fucked up or not? I’ve been giving free stocks picks on the site since 2008 and I think in many ways it has cheapened the quality of said picks. For example, my recent foray into the market, previous 17 picks or so, would’ve netted someone upwards of 90%, had they gone all in on each pick. Do I brag endlessly about this and discuss my “high IQ” stocks advice as being something of an unbelievably gift to the readership? No, I never do that. But heading into the relaunch of Exodus 2.0, as we are in the process of totally rewriting the platform, I think it’s appropriate for me to truly give something back to the good folks who are members of Exodus 1.0, in the form of my undivided devotion to the platform.

For the time being, the picks stay inside of the walled gardens.

Markets look strong early going — gold is weak, however, as well as crude. For the bulls to get an erection, we’ll need bond yields to spike. I don’t see that happening. Ergo, I am long a sundry, mind you, of value stocks aka olde man stocks — eagerly awaiting for that exuberance to wear off.

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Happy Father’s Day Lads!

Being a Mother is easy. All you have to do is carry the child for a few months, deliver it, and then make the child sandwiches for the next 18+ years. But being a Dad, a good Dad, takes skill.

Who else will give Junior his first lesson into how to formally tighten a fist and punch some other boy in the nose with it?

Who else will tell him not to cry, that ‘crying is for babies’ and true men, real men, rage out and hit the ball over the fence after striking out the first three times at bat?

Who’s gonna introduce him to his first beer, or tobacco product, or show him how to eat fatty meats?

Who else, dare I say, will give him his first motorcycle and watch war movies with him — showing him how other Dads raised other boys to grow up to shoot people into the face with bullets, for love of God and country?

On this fine Father’s Day I wish all of the true Dads a good great day. The weather here in the northeast corridor of the United States is splendid. Have the wife scramble up some eggs for you and heat up some coffee, and maybe a slab or two of bacon. Why not? Who’s gonna stop you — the doctor? Pfffff.

Head outside and toss the ball around with Junior. After he complains about how boring it all is, head on out to the lake and fish, smoke a powerful cigar, and eat sandwiches with heavily salted meat inside of it. Maybe after that, you can go to the gym to deadlift 315lbs ten times. Let’s see the mothers do that, huh?

See, being a Dad is all about balance — knowing when to tell Junior about the birds and the bees, offering life advice as it pertains to fixing things with a wrench or how to comport oneself as a proper gentleman, in all of its eloquence and grandeur. Some of us grew up without Dads, for whatever reason, so we learned how to become one by watching Saving Private Ryan, or other shows about Fatherhood, such as Red Dawn and 300.

Ah, I can smell the bacon sizzling now. There’s gonna be a heck of a mess in the kitchen this morning — I’ll tell you that much. And guess what? Life keeps getting better. You’re not gonna have to lift a finger — because it’s Father’s Day and everyone else is your servant, so take advantage of it and order a milkshake with extra cream, or maybe have the wife iron your clothes an extra time — just for good measure.

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The Exodus oversold signal for the overall market closed out its 10 day cycle today, which started on 5/31/19. The net result was a 5.5% win for the SPY. The importance of this test cannot be minimized. These algorithms are malleable and learn markets as we go. Because of the massive draw down in late 2018, the algos adjusted the stress levels to conform with the pain endured during that time.

This test was at those low reading and it nailed the market to the exact day.

Unfortunately, we are not doing free trials at Exodus anymore — due to wanton theft and grifting from you, the ungrateful reader class pleb. If you want access, invest a small sum of money into your craft and envelope yourselves in the bosom of winship.


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Slow Day — Markets Refuse to Go Lower

Big opportunity lost for shorts today. It’s a Friday and war with Iran is imminent. All sorts of red flags went up due to the bond market and Morgan Stanley’s economic indicator casting a grave pall upon the forecast of this economy — and yet we could not even drop by 1%. What a shameful disappointment.

I will have you know, I have zero hedges and considerable long exposure, but in old man value names, hardly any great. I own some of course — but the majority of my bounty is conservative — because lower yields is a boon for high divvy plays.

Not much else to say other than ‘watch gold.’ The strong dollar derailed it of glory today, but there’s always tomorrow.

With that feather in my cap, I bid you a good weekend.

NOTE: Please say a prayer for an expeditious sale of my house, so that I might become a southern gent, post haste.

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If Starbucks was a smart company, they’d ditch the healthcare for their employees and attractive wages. By my point of view, human employees are gratuitous altogether. Let those people eat cake.

Over in China, their largest national coffee chain isn’t bothering with people and have opted for SELF SERVING stations. Very mechanical and methodical in nature. The Chinese enjoy systems and adhere to them, otherwise the party liquidates them.

Branded as Luckin Coffee Express, the self-service machine is designed for public spaces like schools and office buildings. Users can locate the nearest coffee machine and place an order through the Luckin app. Drinks are ready 30 seconds after scanning the pick-up code.

The company will launch a pilot program to test the project soon, according to media reports.

The Chinese brand of Luckin Coffee Express, “???,” was trademarked by a Beijing subsidiary of the coffee upstart in May, according to Trademark Office of China’s National Intellectual Property Administration.

Luckin’s aggressive expansion has positioned the coffee startup as a challenger to Starbucks in China. The company said in January that it plans to have 4,500 stores in China by the end of the year, up from around 2,370 as of March. That’s on par with Starbucks, which has around 3,800 in China and plans to add 600 more by the end of September .

Look at all of that growth boy. Plus with this trade war really heating up, there is a better than average chance the Chinese government will somehow fuck SBUX, no? Where else will hard working China-men get their morning cup of Joe or green tea?


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FLASH: Gold Hits 52 Week Highs

When will the degenerates and the financial perverts step in? There’s a lot of upside left in the precious metal, based solely on historical valuations. We’re in a gold bull market and no one even knows it.

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TRUMP DOUBLES DOWN ON FED SALT: The Dow Would Be 10,000 Points Higher Without Them

This is the craziest shit any President has ever said about markets, ever.

Trump said it months ago and now he said it again, apparently in an interview to be aired on ABC this weekend.

The Dow would be TEN THOUSAND POINTS HIGHER, had it not been for the Fed meddling.

The president predicted that GDP would be 1.5 percentage points higher had Powell and his fellow central bankers not enacted rate increases and “quantitative tightening.” In addition, he said the stock market would be at least 10,000 points higher, presumably a reference to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was at 26,106 heading into Friday trading.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, whom he named to the post in early 2018, and has said openly that he believes the Fed should be cutting interest rates. Previous presidents have taken on Fed chairs before, but rarely in such a public fashion.

“He’s my pick and I disagree with him entirely,” Trump said. “As you know, it’s independent. … But I’m not happy with what he’s done.”

That’s 40% for those counting at home, or $18 trillion in wealth creation.

The fuck out of here.

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GET IN HERE: This is How You Play This Tape

Enough of your nonsense. I’ve entertained it for too long. The sky is falling now — midnight on Wall Street. AVGO missed earnings, thanks to China. Now you have 3 major semis (NVDA, INTC, AVGO) in the penalty box.

Do I have your attention?

Broadcom leads a plunge in chip stocks after the chipmaker missed revenue expectations and lowered guidance.

Broadcom’s revenue for the fiscal second quarter came in at $5.52 billion vs. expectations of $5.68 billion.

The chipmaker also said it now expects $22.60 billion in revenue for fiscal 2019, well bellow the $24.31 billion seen by analysts

The 10yr is now at 2.06% and heading lower. The way you play this tape is accordingly:

Heavy cash, upwards of 30%
Long bonds, via TLT or TMF for leverage
Gold, via JNUG, GDX, or JNUG
Value stocks and REITs, because the money will scramble for yield with rates dropping
Hedges via inverses for TRADES only

When the market collapsed in late 2018, stocks like TR and PG went higher. Gold is on the cusp of a 7 year breakout to the upside, and most of you fuckers are still trying to buy SOXL. But what if the summer truly brings doldrums and what if we retested the January lows? The fundamentals seem to be the same, if not worse. The complacency is outrageously belligerent, with financial advisors sucking each other’s dicks for jobs well done. They haven’t done anything but sit in their chairs and received the gifts bestowed down from the Fed.

If the Morgan Stanley indicator is of any use, we should be trading defensively now. Plus anyway, it’s a Friday and we all know markets do not bottom on fucking Fridays.

Happy trading — see you inside Exodus.

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Morgan Stanley’s Proprietary Economic Indicator Just Registered a RECORD COLLAPSE

It’s over fucked faces. Finally, we can begin to make arrangements for the funeral.

The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record.

“The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,” economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients on Thursday.

Every subindex of the Business Conditions Composite fell in June, expect for the credit condition category, which “is consistent with the recent easing in broad financial conditions,” Zentner said.

What does it all mean? It means this.

“The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,? economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients. “Fundamental indicators point to a broad softening of activity, but analysts did not widely attribute the weakening to trade policy.”

Chart please? Coming right up. Keep your pants on.


After the bell, chip giant AVGO shit the bed. The stock is being brutalized in an after hours session from hell.

Nasdaq futures are -25.

Sleep tight.

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We are looking at a potential 7 year consolidation breaking out. I own some NUGT and will buy more on dips. But I’m not expecting any. If you’re ignoring this move, then you are willingly ignoring a sector with extreme upside. Aren’t you aware that gold stocks are valued for zero growth in the gold price — now stuck at 1.5x sales?

Did you know during the halcyon days of when gold was relevant, the gold miners traded at 5-7x?

You’d be wise to play gold each and every time it looks to be breaking out. Because one of these days it will and you’ll blow your brains out for missing out on such an opportunity.

Markets went up. War with Iran is imminent. Nothing can stop stocks. Yada, yada, yada.

I bought a bunch of stuff today, one based off the IPO FVRR today and several other growth and old man plays. I am positioned for a low rate environ. If you want to see, you’re just gonna have to join the league of gentlemen inside Exodus.

Good day.

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