iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,146 Blog Posts

CRASH PROOF

Markets careened lower today, amidst pomp and circumstance. Plebs were lit up in the streets like Chinese firecrackers — accounts bludgeoned under the panic of renewed plague.They brought out the clowns onto the teevee to assuage the plebs with words of calmness, all the while injuring them with malevolent advice of poison.

Yields crashed lower and yet they still told stories, grande stories, of inflation and how everything was going swell. You are to get out there and buy dips, ignore the COVID plague, whilst of course injecting yourselves with a booster shot.

In the iBankCoin caves, Le Fly traded majestically and profited by 20bps, 24% cash, fully loaded for the next round of lockdowns on news that “just 40%” of hospitalized COVID patients have been DOUBLED VAXXED in the UK, a far cry from our paltry 3%.

We do not know what to believe, except for the things that are right in front of our faces.

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Weak Sauce Collapse; COVID Lockdown Plays on Fire

Breadth is at 38% and we have seen a switch-a-roo occur since the open. The risk averse stocks like CLX and KR selling off a bit in favor of LOCKDOWN and vaccine plays like MRNA, NVAX, AHPI and APT to name a few. We had for a moment there a tangible rally in stocks and I would not rule it out later in the day, especially with breadth so strong and numerous stocks rallying hard.

There is no question people are looking towards lockdown plays, with NLS, PTON and W leading the way up. The only question you have to ask yourself is “can this rally in these niche stocks withstand the barrage of selling in the general market?”

I believe we can see continuation in this trend, because the COVID infection rates are only just getting started. You might want to look into names that used to rally during lockdown but are quiet now for the next round of plays.

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MARKET COLLAPSES AS DELTA VARIANT SCARES THE SHIT OUT OF PEOPLE

The Down is down more than 600, NASDAQ -200+. The fear is renewed LOCKDOWNS with the delta variant on the move. The beneficiaries are old man stocks like KR and CLX — the very stocks I am positioned in now. The bigger story is the COLLAPSE in yields. The 10yr is 1.21%. It was just a short while ago when yields were nearing 2% and people were panicked over the price of lumber and overall inflation.

Well, fuck all of that. I did tell you it was TRANSITORY and now with oil down 5% and the entire inflation story up in flames, you are beginning to understand what is taking place here. The only reason why we went parabolic was because of stimmy checks. Now with momentum stocks permanently dead and the specter of RUINOUS lockdowns a few months away, we stand to lose a great deal from current levels.

I cannot suggest shorting here, however, since markets tend to work in peculiar ways and were already down a bunch now. But I will tell you larger cap high dividend stocks is where you want your serious money now.

Because of my smart positions, I am +30bps early going.

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There Aren’t Any Victims, Just Volunteers

I’m sure it does wonders for the immune system, fending off the awfully dreadful COVID-19 scourge, a virus which has killed millions of people around the world and which also seems to be transmogrifying¬†into deadlier versions by the day. Good thing the good folks over at PFE and MRNA are working around the clock on booster shots and perhaps more MRNA solutions, for us to enjoy as we eat healthfully on grass fed non GMO cows and corn.

While I do have empathy for the millions of people with diabetes in this great fatted land of ours and pity those who are unable to do simple caloric intake versus exertion models for their diets, I must respectfully decline your extraordinary vaccine Mr Pfizer, for I am what others might call a “gambler” or a “risk taker” and like my odds of winning this COVID battle without the assistance of any, potentially deleterious and fatal, inoculations.

While COVID cases are on the move higher in the nations that are most vaccinated, one must move the goal post and suggest the vaccine was never intended to stop COVID — but instead prevent serious ailments and death. While this might be true, I do not choose to find the value here. Perhaps one of you potential lottery winners can explain to me in simple terms the advantages of “the Jab” and while you’re at it explain to me why it was so terrible under Trump but now great under Biden.

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Markets on Edge as COVID Cases Blossom Like Wildfire Worldwide

If curious as to the happenings of COVID — look no further than this.

There is a database out there called VAERS which measures the amount of deaths after COVID vaccines and it amounts to 10,000+. The only problem with it, it is unreliable and if you got hit by a car after the vax — it was counted in the stats. There is undeniable proof the vaccine is thwarting the spread of COVID and reducing its severity upon whom it’s afflicting. However, no government is releasing actual data regarding deleterious injuries or deaths after VAX — which has caused people to make up their own. This is what happens when you try to suppress information — the wrong information spreads like fire because people always want to believe what they’re not supposed to know.

The closest I’ve read to honest is coming out of Israel, saying the $PFE vaccine is nowhere close to as effective as previously stated. COVID is real — but the dangers are of course widely exaggerated and we’re at a point now with cases on the rise, and resistance to further vaccinations, we could be entering a very dark locked down Fall — which is why markets were on edge.

I am mostly long old man stocks and some NVAX — the cheapest of the vaccine plays. I am also long YOU, which literally is a vaccine passport play. The Orwellian hellscape you’ve always read about and seen depicted on teevee is coming and shortages are to be expected. I don’t see how we do not lockdown — given the spread of COVID even after 70% of people are vaccinated. The numbers government are telling us must be false. For example, over in the UK 44k people got COVID yesterday, but 90% are vaccinated. Mathematically, that many people SHOULD NOT be getting infected. As a point in fact, the virus should be all but gone. The narrative woven by the media is only UNVAXXED are getting sick. FALSE.

Six NY Yankees tested positive for COVID yesterday — most likely all vaccinated.

French tennis start Alex de Minaur tested positive and will not attend the olympics. Upwards of 98% of olympians are vaccinated.

Providing the cover ups and dishonesty by governments continue, you should expect more misinformation to spread widely and people who were on the fence about getting vaccinated remain on the fence. We do not need incentives or bribes to protect ourselves from a virus. What people want is to truly understand the risks and make informed decisions. When you market and push and coerce and force people to do things — that campaign fails and what it does, truly, is create a toxic environment that destroys the credibility of the host. We have seen this happen innumerable times over the past 20 years and that is why no one believes anything anymore and that is why hate and divisiveness are at record highs.

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RISK AVERSION

Lots of dashed hopes this morning, overzealous traders dashed up against the rocks — legs and arms broken and left adrift in shark infested waters. I will tell you, mind you, the markets aren’t a place for the faint of heart. If you fashion yourselves to be weakly minded and with a poor constitution, it’s best you avoid the market altogether and instead hire a financial advisor to do it for you.

I have seen thousands of would be traders walk through these halls since 2007. Most of them were very confident about this or that — and when our comments section was live and active — they’d cause quite a stir about their feeeeelings and how they knew more about this or that — because Dunning Kruger.

In life, at least the way I have found it, it’s best to not pretend to be an expert in anything and instead be a student. I myself, a self professed “MASTER ACE TRADER” know full well that I am still learning and improving and not as good as I could be.

For those who’ve demonstrated a knack for this and have enjoyed real success that was not the result of an oversized position fortunately going up — bear down and stick with it. Watch your losses close and keep goals reasonable. If you shoot for the stars without a proper shuttle, you’ll end up space dust.

Up 30bps heading into the mid-day, long risk averse stocks because that’s what’s working.

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Middling Down Day — Traded Back to Mediocrity

I don’t use the Dow or Nasdaq as my barometer anymore — because they’re weighted and piece of shit indexes. I have my own in Stocklabs, spliced clean by market cap and then whole using the top 4,000 stocks — a much better and realistic view of the market, imo. We had a moribund session, only accentuated by intermittent bouts of volatility, of which I partook. I ended the session up 4bps, further extending my winning streak — loftily and obnoxiously presiding over all of you +221% YTD.

We will continue the struggle tomorrow — 25% cash, weighted mostly in old man stocks.

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Time to Hide Inside the Jelly Jar

Rates have plunged to the point where it’s advantageous to own dividend stocks again. I’m talking about bore you to dead Tootsie Roll in the fucking house — collecting those divvies every quarter like that fuck owned you money. The days of fast money appear to be over. You can live in the past and lament and draw down like a bitch. Or you can easily slide into the jelly jar and slosh around for a bit — enjoying the nectar and the comfort of grocery store stocks — heading and also barreling into the Fall — as we spearhead directly into MARTIAL LAW and renewed lockdowns.

I know — you all took the vaccine and have been cured. Well, you’ll need to take it again and again and again — all the time — until you turn into a rhinoceros.

I threw away my good start and am down 0.4% now, 50% cash, old manned the fuck up — eager to find me some good 3% divvy payers into the sell off.

NOTE: If momo starts again, I’ll sell these the fuck out and dive headlong back into those fuckers. All trades given in RT inside Stocklabs only.

 

 

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Summer Malaise

Aside from NFT stocks like TKAT, OCG and YVR breaking necks to the upside, stocks are more or less doing nothing — with weakness persisting in a number of trading venues — leaving the band of loser at Reddit with very little recourse for comfort.

I am up 30bps, a gentleman’s return and have a mind for increasing it throughout the session. I am aware and reticent of the idea that I might, in fact, be diving into a mirage without water, head cracked directly to the bottom of the hard pool. Alas, I am willing to take such a chance, since my life is moribund and I have been locked down in my house since 2005, eagerly waiting to bust loose.

Trading is light, but my ideas are bountiful. We have several new features in the works at Stocklabs — coming soon — so bear with us.

Gentlemen, inflation is transitory. Go out there and receive your vaccinations and wear your masks whilst you eat and buy as many things as you can on Amazon and consoooom all of the teevee you can. Also make sure to train your children to be just like you.

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2014 All Over Again

Massive collapse in a variety of “hot sectors” today, mainly in EV or anything green or anything related to Biden. It’s also worth noting these hot sectors are now BRAZEN BULLS, roasting newly minted traders alive. Over in Stocklabs, we do not fall victim to predators and instead hunt. I gathered nearly 100bps in gains today, thru grit and determination, succored and emblazoned by the tools available to me. As a trader, you are only so good as the people around you and the tools you have to trade.

I want to bring up the 2014 narrative again — because it feels familiar. I know it well and if you’ve read me you know I have PTSD from that era. The hot stock of that time was FEYE. Here was the monthly returns for FEYE in 2014.

Misery and one bounce, more misery and one final bounce before nothing again.

Now let’s look at PLUG.

Similar no?

We are not done and of course there will be respites and micro-trading opportunities. It’s worth noting for the first half of 2015, FEYE was off to the races before succumbing once again to evil short sellers.

The moral of the story?

People were correct to sell short FEYE — as it has been a miserable company for the past 7 years, just like people are correct for shorting all of the hot sectors now. This is hard to accept, but it’s for the best. We are cleansing the market of its perfidious cloth and renewing the spirit of real investors who trade real stocks based upon real fundies. It’s not as fun — but then again — another bubble is only a few years away anyhow.

Today’s momo sectors racked with losses.

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