Rotation Out of Energy into Tech Underway

Will it last? For the second day in a row a severe drawdown from the highs in energy stocks is happening, albeit they’re still up. On average, energy stocks are off by 2.5% from session highs while at the same time SAAS stocks are running hot. While semis are still weak and the overall tone of the market still impaired, it’s worth noting rates are higher and there is a remarkable lift off in software stocks.

The contrarian might view this as fodder and instead buy more basic materials. This is what makes a market.

I am presently overweight tech and short the NASDAQ x2 — because bigger capped tech is lagging. I am tempted tp shrink my portfolio into the close and keep it small — for reasons that are obvious. Then again, perhaps the worst is behind us and we’re setting up for a Thanksgiving run to Valhalla.

If I had the answers I certainly would not give them to you. However, I remain dutifully committed to talking to myself here on this fucking blog to an audience of catamites and mountebanks alike. I will commit to a position by the close. I am down 30bps now and have no desire to push myself to any limits that might risk my position. I am done trading in and out of pennies and hate people who do.

“The Fly” is an austere investor now and only bets on sure things — possesses and time machine and uses it to his advantage, all for good. I am no longer allured by the specter of fast returns and generally unfollow people on Twitter who chase stocks around like dogs off chains.

BACK ON YOUR CHAIN and into your cages!

My hunch is for collapse. But my eyes speak otherwise.

I took the morning off. But before I did I liquidated most of my positions, tidied up a bit and left when exactly flat for the session. I have one hedge and several solar stocks and one or two oils and none of them, except the hedge, did well. While looking at the tape now, all I could see were all of the stocks I thought would go up in fact go up. For the past month or so this has been the root of my failures — missing out and then chasing and then stopping out for losses.

This time I am sticking to a plan, even if it means missing out on some fast money. I am down around 45bps now and as disheartening as that might seem, it’s really not much at all. What worse is taking 45bps and sinking downwards to -2% off the back of poorly timed and placed trades.

I am having an off day and I mean that literally. I will get back to the turret shortly and position, not for today, but for tomorrow.

Wish me luck!

The market opened swell and then heaved and tipped over and trickled down all day and into the final hours let loose to the downside — capsizing those who bought the open. The mood is grim and the Dow off by 250. No one likes the tape and it’s just more of the same — bullshit served up daily accentuated by a bull market in cryptos — leaving more and more people to give up on equities in search of warmer climes.

Ten Thousand suns cannot warm up the earth now, as we’re tethered to the turning of the leaves of October — colder weather and worse markets. We are almost assured destruction now and not much else can get in the way of it. I traded tight and narrow today, opting for only a few positions at a time. By the end of the session, I found myself 15% long SOXS with limited exposure to stocks — a hedged approach — finished at session highs of +145bps.

Le Fly was born to trade in these markets and I look forward to the black out of the sun soon and hell freezing over and all of the plebs who’ve done so well these past few years throw out into the maelstrom and stampeded into the earth and back into dust.

I thought we might’ve had something there — but no. I cleared out all of my positions except BABA leaps and bought some SOXS for the novelty, locking in a +125bps gain for the day.

I might re-enter towards the end of the day, but it will not be bold and it will be hedged. I am done (for now) with swinging for the fences in favor of a more methodical method. The market isn’t what we want it to be and it’s important we root ourselves in the reality of the situation instead of hope.

I’m biased towards the basic material trade and the oils are still up, but sharply off their highs. I’d rather buy back in at the end of the day, even if higher, than have to watch this shit tape churn and burn.

I went through a nightmarish sojourn into plebeian society and lost money during September, thinking my entire world was over and my talents gone like a 38 year old baseball player. I covered my shorts this morning and some longs, upped cash to more than 40% and presently sit with a rather ribald gain of 1.6%.

My gains could be MOAR and they could always be greater — but I am not being sucked into your depraved world of pennied stocks and failed momentum cycles again. I sit with several old man stocks, one or two Chinese burritos, and ag chem stocks — because the world needs food and the prices for everything is going up.

My oil exposure has been reduced to just 1 stock and I’d like to revisit several of the names I sold today — perhaps as early as this afternoon.

I am always wary of morning trade and prefer to lock in gains when I can and buy back later, especially after such a miserable month and my back up against the wall.

Thus far, this tape looks good and I see little reason to fear being long.

The commodity squeeze is on with full force into the winter freeze. Small plebs will freeze to death all across Europe and perhaps here too in the states, all thanks to imaginary supply chain disruptions caused by, inexorably, fuckery largess on behalf of corporate America who do not believe for fucks sake this demand can keep up and instead of hiring more plebs at $15 per hr opt to ride it out — causing backlogs and delays and sheer chicanery.

Now we have oil broaching $80 WTI en route without question to $100 and the US treasury yields are spiking, causing our retarded government to concoct more ways at servicing the $30 trillion they’ve borrowed for the sake of fulfilling the mandates brought forth by the Immigration Act of 1965.

Xmas is around the corner, but before that is Thanksgiving and a meat shortage will menace supply chains there too — possibly to the point of you being forced to carve a delicious BEYOND MEAT Turkey this year at the table. During Xmas, none of your things will arrive in time because ships from China cannot dock at the Port of Los Angeles due to 40 day delays caused by lack of port workers — and all of your children will cry because of it. You’ll need to come up with creative lies to explain why Santa Claus skipped over your house this year, or be brave enough to tell them they were in fact too naughty to deserve any gifts this year. All of this exacerbated by a bourgeois race towards tyranny — people being FIRED from their jobs, “essential jobs” — because they didn’t take the right medicine prescribed to them by the state in the time frame acceptable by the state — ostracized and cast out into the cold as filth, people with potential disease and/or ignorance so acute they deserve to starve to death along with their children.

It’s as if they’re trying their best to collapse this all at once — providing even greater reason to be very long BTC and ETH because fiat currencies are complete shit and one day soon they might all collapse.

Meanwhile, morons are trading pictures on Openseas and embarking on great trades — making 1000x their money in little more than a fortnight. I will tell you this now, at no point along this bumpy market road have I seen more reasons to collapse this market. We do not have the fundamental maladies and leverage of 2008 — but we have everything else.

‘Tis is not the season to bet against stocks and these things are easily forecasted in advance — by watching the bond markets. We have a most interesting scene in the US treasury market now — which in fact if it worsens can lead to a very very crashy equity tape. Presently, keep your eyes peeled to both oil and the 10yr bonds and know the inflation squeeze is on in full force and this will require you to stay focused and not veer off back into penny stock tech bullshit catamite stocks, but instead remain fixed on chemicals, steel, coking coal, ag chemicals, oil and gas and down the line of drilling and equipment services. You will want to remain long the names with HIGH MARGINS you fucking idiots and avoid the one’s with margins less than 50%.

I can comfortably say my cold streak is over. Early this week I got tossed into the blender and sank another 4% on top of the 10% shed in September. I was at my low point and I stared into the black abyss with my black heart and I won. I reversed and went higher — because I stopped chasing momentum. I will no longer chase pennies like a dog after bone and instead opt for more macro strategic plays, until I make back what I lost.

I made +110bps today via a blend of shorts and longs, leaning towards an inflation narrative and short bonds. I am fully invested, but also hedged, and the tape was ugly as a bitch into the final hour. We can expect fireworks next week and we’re not looking forward to it because the market hasn’t been forgiving.

We have a holiday on Monday, HAPPY Columbus Day — a great man indeud who is wantonly hated inside House Fly. Since I’ve never met the chap and prefer not to mold my opinions from scandal — I can only assume he was a great man because of all the fine statues of him around the world. Just like in 300 years people will reflect upon George Floyd and view him as something of a civil rights hero, I too have the opinion of Christopher Columbus that he was a great navigator.

The fact the Indians got REKT and lost their lands is wholly due to their field commanders being fucking morons.

DOOM awaits.

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CORRECTION: Markets no longer close for Columbus Day and instead starting 2022 will close for Juneteenth pic.twitter.com/cIaHBG4Dm0

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 8, 2021

Good morning fucked faces!

I entreat you with gains once again, as I am smartly positioned amongst a pastiche of holdings appreciating in value. I will not relinquish these money making ideas for free. Oh no indeed I shall not, for that is for PAYING members of Stocklabs. However, I will tell you that I bought leaps on BABA, slightly out of the money — looking for the stock to surge in 2022. I also am heavily SHORT the US treasury bond via TMV and I am long an array of oil and ag names, with a heavy hedge against small caps via TZA.

Losses are stomped the fuck out fast at 2% and I do not have patience any more for small capped shit. Keep your penny ideas to yourself you piece of shit.

I am up 1.25%, on another leisurely day at House Fly. Cafe Du Monde is not FESTOONED on my walls this morning and I will have you know that I consumed a delicious pumpkin beignet this morning, which is news because I typically eschew carbs — because fat fucks eat carbs.

Into the afternoon, expect chicanery, but the oil trade looks SAFU. Lots of late money coming with fortunes in mind.

Also, into the weekend, it’s possible BTC-ETH will moon. I am long BTBT as my sole miner play right now.

This was NOT the storybook ending to an otherwise joyous day. Markets dove lower and lower since lunch and offered little to no respite into the close, ahead of a jobs report.

I positioned for inflation and higher rates, but a TZA hedge of 10%. I own some oil, some tech, and a few Chinese stocks and will certainly lose money if market trade down tomorrow; but there is a chance, a small one albeit, that today’s fade was nothing more than uncertainty and we’ll get back to punching faces the fuck off tomorrow morning.

If we gap lower tomorrow, depending on my PNL, I might want to hold and wait for a turn-around. However, if I am up in the morning, I might just op for 100% cash, as this market is uneasy and filled with a variety of ways to annihilate traders.

No penny stocks. No pumps, only strategic positions based off economic themes for the near term future.

I close the session +160bps, about 30bps off session highs.

Congrats to all involved.

In 2008 I created a time machine able to navigate the markets and opened it up to the public to use, in order to make themselves rich. Most only read the blog, or now troll me on Twitter. Many have joined our ranks, from The PPT to Exodus and now Stocklabs — a timeline of innovation and progress. One thing has remained constant however, the oversold readings from which our platform is built around…it continues to perform with magical qualities.

Here we are wrapping up another successful oversold cycle, and yet many just want SHIB added to the matrix so that they can track it while “catching floors” in Openseas — toiling VERY HARD 23hrs per day for money. You work and work and work and work for money and you buy stuff with it and then you feeeeeeeeel good about yourselves because you did what other’s couldn’t.

Well now — I HAVE A FUCKING TIME MACHINE THAT TIMES MARKET BOTTOMS so fuck yourself.