THE FINAL SALVO IS NOW

I had a very large position in TZA but sold it for a 0.87% gain. These small gains are designed to scalp and not intended to provide me with pan coverage. I am now 25% long PIECE OF SHIT STOCKS like AFRM, CHPT, and UPST and hold the balance in cash, for now.

My intent is to play this final day before Thanksgiving and enjoy it, savor it even, for tomorrow we dine and drink heavily into what will be a CATASTROPHE on Friday. I have zero confidence in PAX AMERICANA, as we are ruled by psychopaths.

I understand why some of you older folks push back against this train of thought — because you grew up in an era when America was great and you cling to those memories as if they existed in today’s reality. It’s over lads and they hate you so much…they’d rather you die.

But before that happens, they’re fucking stock market is going to crash and burn.

Some housekeeping items first.

Germany is big mad about not being able to spread LGBT propaganda in Qatar and have taken to covering their mouths before one of their sports ball games.

GERMAN SOCCER PLAYERS AT WORLD CUP PLACE HAND OVER MOUTH IN PROTEST OF NOT BEING ABLE TO WEAR GAY ARMBAND IN QATAR *** pic.twitter.com/jQgKzB9FD4

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 23, 2022

Balenciaga apologized for doing an ad PROMOTING child porn.

BALENCIAGA APOLOGIZES FOR PRO CHILD PORN AD pic.twitter.com/7uGfkPTzNl

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 23, 2022

Apparently, they have a long rich history of such things.

? OHHHHHH MYYYYY G— #BALENCIAGA… ?? ???? ?????!!!!!!!!!!!? pic.twitter.com/Fa6TOO6EXk

— N?TLY D?NIS? (@itsnatlydenise) November 23, 2022

And the entirety of Ukraine is almost completely without energy as the weather freezes over. Moreover, the Sec of Defense for Ukraine states a demand of Kiev is for total unconditional “denuclearization” of Russia after the war, as part of the terms for surrender. In other news, the EU has declared Russia a terrorist state and the Zelensky regime have raided Russian Orthodox churches around Ukraine and have put forth a bill to BAN the religion in the country.

All of this, and so much more, is going to lead to armed conflict between the United Steaks and Russia. At this point, it’s a foregone conclusion.

Ergo, and this goes without saying, enjoy your meal and eat heartily for it might be your last.

In about two days time is BLACKENED FRIDAY, a day which will highlight the great many short falls of the US consumer, and if it doesn’t shall bring about more Fed chatter about more rate hikes. It truly is a damned if you do damned if you don’t scenario.

I entered today LEVERAGED LONG and have been somewhat stymied by the largess decline in oil and have some hedges on now — because it will soon, once again, be over.

I made +181bps in trading, as I pressed the envelope and went all in long at 115% of equity. My other accounts were up even more, as I remain at or near 52 week highs — unaffected by the great bear market that has ripped so many of you to shreds.

It’s a funny thing I left the world of professional money management because it felt parasitic to me, to now just offer the same advice for a 99.9% discount. It’s even funnier to deliver returns in the public view that would get my dick sucked in my former world and receive nothing but yawns online — since most people just discard anything they read as promotional bullshit by persons selling wares.

Into the final day of trading before FAT FUCK THURSDAY, I am incredibly bullish and have positioned myself to hammer in the faces of bears with the rage of 10,000 Fly’s angry at the NY Met’s 2008 collapse.

Almost immediately after posting that I had gone to cash, I stepped in and bought some upside ETFs. I sold them just now and replaced them with some stocks, +112bps for the session. My YOLO is still ALL IN ERX +6% and my Quant is +2.3%. It’s fair to say the Turkey Gods descend upon you now.

All picks and ideas and chat are localed inside the confined of Stocklabs.

With the Dow +300 and Nasdaq +90, I believe this is the perfect spot to short squeeze bears into an assured famine for Thanksgiving. Listen to me, this is where you LEAN IN and go for the jugular vein. Just stick your hand in there and rip it out.

My picks are going to be based upon the technical rankings of Stocklabs, in conjunction with % of shares sold short.

Maybe it keeps going but I took my gains and ran, +83bps. My YOLO is still 100% long ERX and my quant is still 100% in invested long a pastiche of strong names. But, my trading is now 100% cash.

I’ll revisit later on this afternoon.

I do like the action in retail, especially BBY, URBN and M.

More later

The world is falling apart and the poor souls playing in the World Cup aren’t permitted to wear their gay armbands. Both Turkey and Serbia are on the move, militarily, and war is all but a foregone conclusion between Russia and the Unites Steaks.

Recession is here and now and we are seeing levels of distress not seen since 2008.

Personal savings and debt are inversely correlated on steroids, which reminds me that we had it all in 2021 and because of it — we were shattered to pieces and much much more.

Personal Savings vs Credit Card Debt pic.twitter.com/vV9qYLqxnZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 21, 2022

The EU, at the behest of the US, have schemes to initiate an oil price cap for Russian oil — which is on par with not liking the price of bread at the store and refusing to visit said store for bread. The end result will be Europe without oil and other Russian customers with their oil.

We are at the very onset of the ending salvo of the fourth turning. By next year today, things will be monstrously worse for society and we can only hope this pain and suffering will bring about actual death and carnage to all of those who afflicted us with this sorrow.

THAT BEING SAID, I am directionally long and leveraged long into National Festival. I did not get involved with shit stocks like COIN or AFRM, but instead own risk averse names with some ERX, TSLA, and GOOGL to boost. My bed has been made and tonight I will fantasize of stuffing and thickly ladled gravy on top of turkey legs and dream about the good old days and pine for them to return — when homosexual armbands could fancied about without hazard and trannies could run about freely cutting their dicks off in the green pastures and yellow sunshine — cascading into the blue ocean of freedom and liberty.

It’s an interesting question, as risk is OFF today. Do we buy the dip and hope and pray to the Turkey Gods for a spot of gravy tomorrow? Or, conversely, do we believe Thanksgiving will be canceled and instead of ebullience we get the black flag into Black Friday and feel dreadful about it all weekend?

I am professionally positioned at 112% leveraged long, but mostly in risk averse stocks. These are the names running hot today. There is a temptation to discard them in favor of crap. My only basis for doing so it some sort of hare brained risk on mood into Thanksgiving. I have 100 reasons not to do this, specifically the fact that retail sales are likely to disappoint and disappear.

I’ll make a decision within the hour.

It should be noted oil is getting hammered into the fucking 70s today and the House of Saud just issued this “Fuck Joe Biden” note.

SAUDI ENERGY MINISTER ABDULAZIZ: THE CURRENT CUT OF 2 MILLION BPD WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL THE END OF 2023; IF ADDITIONAL MEASURES ARE REQUIRED TO BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND, WE WILL BE READY TO INTERVENE – STATE NEWS AGENCY.

Today is a classic old man stock day. Everyone else is RACKED with losses, but me. I was fully long and with leverage, but up 15bps — thanks to secular names on the move higher as everything else tumbled to pieces.

This is why you hire LICENSED PROFESSIONALS and not leave your hard earned money to fate. Whilst the lot of you and everyone else does grandly during the bull markets, you all get your fucking brains blown out in the bear. But not me. I challenge you to peer into my methods and find serious fault.

My children are en route from Boston for the holidays and we’ve been busy at House Fly for their arrival. Mrs. Fly is a compulsive cleaner, so when company is coming, especially the people she loves most, cleaning is on hyper-drive.

As for markets, let me take a close look. I just opened up my laptop for the first time, just now.

The intelligence algorithms are in fact very bullish now, a distinct change from recent memory.

I’m thinking about conducting a gambit of sorts, a high risk/high reward mix of shit stocks into Thanksgiving. I will not, however, risk into Blackened Friday and certainly not into cyber Monday. If we ebb lower tomorrow, I very well might initiate the Martingale Stratagem on a sundry of piece of shit stocks, all to be sold late Wednesday, completing the gambit with both style and grace, affording me comfort and dignity whilst filling my gullet with copious amounts of fresh foods and drink.

I cannot help but to mention how much trading 2022 feels like 2002, a year in which I was a young broker getting my brains blown out in a posh NYC boardroom each and every day. Every Friday the sales manager would cull the workforce by 2 or 3 lads, keeping is all on our toes. Today we have a sense of entitlement, all due to the bond market being nationalized in 2008. We have a sense, in spite of the losses, that in the end everything will be all right. In 2002, we had nothing but grim times ahead, up until the Bush tax cuts and Iraq war stoked risk and shot the market higher by 50% in 2003.

Here are the 2002 / 2022 parallels.

(QQQ returns by month 2002/2022)

Jan -1% / -8.75%
Feb -12.3% / -4.6%
March +6.7% / +4.6%
April -12% / -13.6%
May -5.3% / -1.6%
June -13% / -9%
July -8.6% / +12.5%
August -1.5% / -5.1%
Sept -11.8% / -10.7%
October +18.5% / +4%
November +12.9% / +2.5% (ongoing)
December -12.1%/ ?

FULL YEAR 2002: -31.5%
FULL YTD: -29%

If history is of any reference, we are due for a strong rally next week and a total an complete annihilation to cap off 2022 during December. If we are to travel down similar roads, by April of 2023 the market would have bottomed and we could be off to the races again.

Naturally, we all want to believe that things are different “this time” because we are alive during it. Truth is, human behavior is similar over all time frames. The old have always hated the youth and the youth have always made reckless decisions. Markets will, at some point, price in the very worst outlook and march higher in spite of bad news, as long as government policy is conducive with growth. With Cadaver Biden in office, we might not get that government boost in 2023 and might, perhaps, continue lower until the 2024 elections.