SEMIS DUMP OUT AFTER $ASML EARNINGS LEAKED ONLINE

Let me preface this blog by stating some facts, particularly about myself:

I was 100% cash heading into this $ASML leak and felt it was necessary to allay any fears some of you might have about my person being adversely affected by this most unfortunate slide.

Early this morning these fucking numbers leaked online:

3Q bookings EU 2.63B, est. EU 5.39B

ASML CUTS 2025 NET SALES, GROSS MARGIN GUIDANCE

ASML CEO:

“It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness. Regarding Logic, the competitive foundry dynamics have resulted in a slower ramp of new nodes at certain customers, leading to several fab push outs and resulting changes in litho demand timing, in particular EUV”

Umm, excuse me but that’s a 50% drop in bookings. On that news, the $SMH is down over 4% but the overall market is taking it in stride. The NASDAQ is down 150 and WTI is off by 5%, because Israel said they’d bomb Iran, but would spare their oil facilities.

How dare they!

Part of my wants to dismiss these $ASML numbers and continue to pretend all is fine. But what the fuck is this all about? Those aren’t small drawdowns in bookings, but disastrous. I went to cash because I was +32bps and +5.4% for October, feeling as if I was being greedy by keeping my money exposed. I was hoping for a severe pullback to buy into, casting myself as a financial super hero in the process.

Let me think about these numbers and see if anything else comes out and get back to you later.