DANGER AHEAD

All was well up until the CRIMINAL leak of $ASML bookings, which displayed a less than extravagant environ for the AI chip world. This led to a sharp and deleterious COLLAPSE of the semis, closing the day down 5.4%.

Now you can view this as an isolated event, instead pointing to $NVDA and $AMD who are both operating better. Or, you can view this as a canary in a coal mine. The truth is no one really knows and the fact that markets had already been up so sharply has led me to hedge and place my avarice for greed on the backburner. I am short the semis via $SOXS at 13% of assets and also long some $UVIX at 3%, with about 28% cash. My beta is fairly neutral and I only lose if markets trade down tomorrow but semis bounce.

My conviction for remaining cautious was buttressed by the fact that nearly every long I bought since going to cash this morning is down, with special emphasis on the fucking collapse in the regional banks. Pardon me if I suggest that maybe, just maybe, we are in for some volatility in the next few days. You can’t just post DISASTROUS numbers out of $ASML and then pretend like it never happened.

All in all, I managed my risk fine today and outperformed the indices, so not much to complain about. I am a little more than concerned about potential BROKEN ELEVATOR pin action tomorrow, should the semis gap down again. However, I am renowned for exaggerating the circumstances around the market, often leaning towards doom casting as a form of catharsis. Should markets behave well tomorrow, I will most likely be just like you, pretending as if $ASML never happened today.