18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,492 Blog Posts


In the latest salvo against BTC-ETH, the nation of China for what seems like that 100th time banned cryptos, but this time for real.

As such, BTC-ETH and the rest of the gang have fallen thru the floorboards and are now sinking even lower. This isn’t earth shattering news, but instead a renewed hatred by the centrally controlled economy of China against the decentralized world of cryptos. I’d imagine this will, at some point, lead to a great buying op.

Futures are off by 100 NASDAQs, as we descend into the weekend without comfort and nothing but angst.

Look at the bond market for signs of real fear. Presently rates are slightly higher, suggestive this pullback os horseshit.

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Will Credit Fears Re-Emerge?


The way these things work follows a strict script.

Stage 1: rumor mill it. Only a few pay attention and cry Chicken Little
Stage 2: It’s happening. Main stream news discusses it incessantly, increasing discussion amongst conspiracy theorist of chicken vs egg current simulation mode.
Stage 3: RESCUED! But not really. But RESCUED. Market short squeezes higher.
Stage 4: Oh no, it’s not over. Panic doubles.
Stage 5: Crisis.
Stage 6: Bailout.
Stage 7: Lift off, pretend it never happened.

I’d say we’re at stage 3 now. I do not have a timeline on when the Chinese debt bubble will re-emerge, but it’s not over.

That being said, we had a strong oversold bounce and we might gap higher again tomorrow, especially since the last 3-4hours of the day was sideways poorly traded slop. I’d bet many a shorts edge-lorded in hoping for some sort of fuckery tonight. I doubt you’ll get that and I doubt the Chinese are eager to create credit drama.

Ergo, we trade higher in the morning.

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The Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms told you we’d ramp and now we’re flying high and all of you dick suckers want in. You can get in — but you missed much of the move, since the fear has abated and the end of the world is no longer on the calendar.

Typically on very OS conditions we always get a follow though day and this is it. In regards to day 3, I cannot offer much advice, other than to suggest more of the same chop — misdirection and confusion abounds.

I was relegated to cash in my trading yesterday, but still very long in other accounts, all up handsomely. I took the morning off since I was burning the fuck out and now I am back to trading again, both strongly and resolute. I am up in the order of 0.45% but just getting started.

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We Probably Ramp — But I’m Out

These past few months have turned Le Fly into an austere investor. The back and forth has melded me into steel, iron ingots and my resolve is to survive. I am cognizant of the fact this is NOT a good market by traditional definition, which is even an idiot can bank. I survived today’s FOMC day with +1.4%, in spite of it looking dicey after Powell began talking. My gains shrunk to only 30bps before ramping and I took that opportune to liquidate everything.

I am fixated on ETFs and not really interested in individual stocks unless they are specific to an industry I want exposure to, such as cryptos. If I wanted to play cryptos in stocks I’d buy MARA, RIOT, HIVE, BITF or HUT. I segment stocks and make innumerable lists in order to best pounce on a micro idea. Admittedly, I am still adjusting to the massive amount of data and capabilities inside Stocklabs. It could be said that perhaps my trading could be better with just a laptop and instincts. Truthfully, I never doubted my instincts but I am embarking on something unique with SL — in that I am building systems that can operate on their own and this AI can one day invest money on my behalf — with me being dead.

I liken this to driving a race car for the first time — fast and unusual and it’ll take some time to get used to.

I have three portfolios running now — trading, best ideas, and Quant. The purpose for them is as follows.

Trading: in the moment
Best Ideas: longer term
Quant: Machine learned investing using software

We all are good at times, terrible and great during rare occasions. The market, on a long enough time frame, is conducive with capital gains, providing you’re invested in REAL stocks with larger market caps. I am just looking for others ways of doing this — and my work continues.

100% cash, but a bias for more gains tomorrow.

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Fuck the tension is real. We are up, but markets haven’t done shit in hours. We all want to run and dance — yet we wait.

The FOMC just said they’d taper and markets are frozen, more or less waiting for resolution. My sense is we RUN HARD into the close — but you never know.

The fucks at the Fed will not hurt markets. The Fed’s only job is to maintain high asset prices — because that is all we have.

Powell talks at 2:30pm — but this looks good because the reaction has been positive.

Current headlines via Stocklabs

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Markets Surge Off Evergrande Non-Event — All Eyes on FOMC

This wasn’t hard to forecast. We live in an era of bailouts. There wasn’t any tangible pressure on high yield or even junk. As a matter of fact, the LTSA index is at record highs. This does not mean the markets are great and will keep going up — but it does mean we are NOT on the verge of a systemic collapse due to Evergrande — who of course will be bailed out if needed.

I sold out of my leveraged ETF positions at the open and switched to mostly stocks, up 150bps with 55% cash. We have the FOMC talking at 2:30pm and they’ll be talking taper — so this can hurt markets if words are now to the liking of those with the levers.

Presently there is a lot of sideways movement after the initial burst higher. The Dow is +350, Nasdaq +100 and I suspect we will remain range-bound until Powell gets on the mic.

NOTE: We have been in an extremely oversold range in Stocklabs for a week and our Intelligence algos suggest higher prices lie ahead. This is not a holy grail — but data based upon our technical readings during previous tapes similar to this. Whether this plays out like before is up for debate.

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Markets Give Up Gains — All Eyes on China

We had a nice move going around 2:45pm but it dissipated into the final half hour — as people got flat ahead of Asian trade which I still believe will be a non-event.

We are now coiled tightly and anticipation is in the air and most want to see Evergrande dealt with one way or another this week — which should pave the way for a clear and concise and resolute direction for stocks.

For the session, I closed +45bps with 32% cash, heavily long in all 3x upside ETFs.

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There is a big move coming in markets — as we tightly coil and cavort into the close. All eyes will be on Asia tonight, with specific notice into the shares of Evergrande and Sunac — as CDS for both scams run higher the world will look on to see if Xi will backstop it all and take control of the situation or let it fester and collapse his fucking banking system.

Clearly, he’d be a fucking lunatic if her permitted FREE MARKET CAPITALISM take hold in his command economy. This is why, and this goes without saying, I am directionally very long — but with cash reserves, into what I suspect will be a fork in the road for the markets in 2021.

I am about 40% cash, +50bps, reticent to buy now and reticent to sell now — patiently waiting in the tall grass for a zebra to eat.

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Constructive Move Off the Bottom

My friends at Zerohedge are still trying to scare you out from your shares, as the Evergrande non-story just won’t go away. I suspect either tonight or tomorrow we will have resolution in China and be done with it. Meanwhile, investors are on edge and I suspect it’s more of a seasonal thing more than anything else. People love to find reasons to panic and I’d be lying if I didn’t say I am bemused by all of the youngsters out there hoping and dreaming the Fed and the cabal are losing control.

I’ve traveled down this road innumerable times and the Empire always wins, so take it from me and stop betting on collapse.

We had collapse last year March. The entire world was shut down. And then we had the best rally known to man.

Biotechs are best in show today, as customary in bounces. I am not playing individual stocks on this move because I want to ensure no mistakes are made. I am playing this via ETFs and using Stocklabs to time my buys. I still hold more than 50% cash and I didn’t sell this morning and I wasn’t scared we’d reverse down, since that’s what all the cash is for — buying into the blood.

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All day long I heard people say “this is it — this is the big one” based upon an event in China that has been telegraphed for months. Fuck off — this is not how black swans work. This is not Lehman or Bear — this is a giant Nothingburger.

How do I know? Because it is.

This is drama for the cannon fodder. Go ahead and confuse yourselves and trade both long and short. Let me show you my charts.

Inside Stocklabs, the % of large cap stocks collapsed to just 8.5% at the session lows. The RARE Hybrid 12 mo OS signal flashed too and then we bounced like a motherfucker into the close — posting 9 or 10 straight candles in a row.

The last time Stocklabs ranked less than 10% of large caps bullish was 7/19. See the results?

Moreover and this goes without saying, initiating shorts with the VIX +35% for the day is fucking retarded. We can gap down tomorrow, of course. But are we likely to collapse the open based off news that can be neutralized with one presser from the CCP?


I added to my upside ETFs today, holding more than 55% cash and I will deploy it all tomorrow, should be drop again.

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