I finally got my shit together and preside over at at recourd highs, +16.4% for the year and +155bps for the session. My latest mantra is to trade with just 20% of my assets around a pastiche of longer term, well diversified, holdings. The reason for this is simple: we are inexorably in a bull market and the chaotic whims of intraday pumps and dumps are distractions when crossed against the backdrop of the larger narrative.
I do not want to discuss the RNC circus and have to provide agitprop to my avowed enemies on the left. However, I will delve into the nonsensical economic mumbo jumbo that so many are repeating, blaming Biden for inflation while praising Trump for a great economy.
Firstly, Trump was a major proponent of sanctions on China. Given all of our stuff is made in China, you’d recognize that by applying levies on them that would inflate prices here, yes? That aside, and I will say this for one final time. The FOMC open market operations DID NOT create the inflation we saw in 2022. The Fed has been doing QE since 2008 and it never leaked into the general economy, because the money was sloshing around between big banks, papering over losses. The inflation came when Biden doled out $5t to the plebs during the COVID lockdowns. I don’t understand why that isn’t the main talking point, but perhaps it has something to do with Trump being the Father of the COVID vaccine.
Yes things are expensive. We have high home, rental, college, insurance and healthcare prices. Basically anything that cannot be outsourced is enjoying runaway inflation because the actual value of the dollar is denigrated. Why is is it denigrated? The dollar is shit because it’s being used in deficit spending operations, sent to places like Ukraine and Israel and whoever else needs some dollars. Essentially, the dollar is like an inverse ETF, designed to go lower, which is why $BTC is so alluring on a long enough time line.
Presidents do not cause economic booms or busts but they can instill confidence and that is exactly what Trump did when in office. But him getting in again isn’t going to lower your home prices or rent or insurance because that’s directly correlated to population. We have an open border with too many people searching for too few resources in this economic zone of ours. If you want a cheap home, you’ll have to move to a place where no one wants to live.
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Yes but inflation in this narrow sense is good and we should all welcome it. That’s the cost that must be paid to reshore our infrastructure and sever ourselves from the rest of the world.
The big problem with the inflation the last five years was that it was fucking stupid and bought us nothing. We had double digit real inflation so that idiot liberals could feel safe for a couple months. It purchased us nothing.
Inflation for the purpose of reversing offshoring would come with higher incomes and a broader middle class so even if there’s a modest decline in purchasing power it doesn’t hurt so bad.