As I sit here, listening to some soothing gangster rap music, I am chuckling, not laughing, at many of you turkey haters. The Gods tell me you thought we’d go lower today. The Gods tell me you do not believe in their gravy filled powers.
Today the market was “gifted” with monstrous economic data. The data was so bad, one could make the argument that it was spawned by the devil himself. Instead, we (market bulls) get turkey legs, mashed potatoes and truckloads of stuffing, filled with capital gains.
Mind you, one might say: “how about FXP, fuck face”?
To those haters, I will see your FXP argument with a healthy serving of C or TNA, lathered with sweet cranberry sauce.
See folks, life is not about working harder than your neighbor. Life is about being smarter than him, then buying his house in foreclosure.
Into this rally, I love my chances, long 250,000 shares of C. And, I want to buy more BAC and GE on dips..
Finally, let’s not forget retail.
I say fuck it, let’s throw turkey party at Macy’s and buy its stock in the process. And, I am buying TBL and GME too.
Gobble, gobble.
NOTE: Stocks trading near net cash are sprinting: PCR, KBR, NTGR etc.
UPDATE: I sold 100,000 C @ $6.75. I sold 20,000 UYM @ $13.35. I sold 10,000 TNA @ $30.95.
UPDATE II: I bought 75,000 KBR @ $13.15. I bought 100,000 GU @ $2.08.
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Also loving this rally. Just took some profits in CHK (Got the $15 calls at $1.20 and just sold ’em for $6) – and then two minutes later they announced natural gas reserves are lower than the street expected. Oh well, can’t be upset when you can take a 5-bagger in this environment.
HA! Well done. Thank you, God.
Happy T-day, all.
The Fly is God.
I always knew that I worked harder than you and yet I have a higher IQ. How can that be?
Come on over for some of the football games tomorrow if you have a chance.
the fly, a fine holiday to you and yours.
250k shares of c – ur not as big of a playah as i thought or u imply
The drop in gasoline prices from $4 to under $2 per gallon has created another $300 billion in stimulus, just in time for Christmas.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
We are having a lovely turkey tomorrow and the Eddie Haskell and Lumpy Rutherford family over for dinner.
Of course we will need to hide the booze and the knives from that Eddie.
As I sit here, getting higher than a motherfucker and listening to Eazy-E whilst playing Counter-Strike and trading the Spiders, I grin at the prospect of homemade and canned cranberry sauce, stuffing, pie and bacon wrapped green beans I will receive not once, but twice, as my parents are divorced and remarried. Two Christmases too bitches.
Fly, what do you think of this: Around Wednesday Dec. 3rd of next week (after two notso-economic Obama events on Mon and Tues), begin buying up blcoks of Ford. Here is why –
1.) GM and Chrysler will go bankrupt in the near future if nothing is done. Ford can make it through most of 2009 if nothing is done.
2.) Ford bottomed at about $1.01 last week. It is, right now, at $2.02. They have experienced the same performance over the past 5 days as GM and Chrysler.
3.) The government is getting loose with their money again, and you can guarantee the 3 auto companies are creating a politically likeable plan right now.
4.) Congress will return full of glee and mirth after the holiday, and pass the $25 billion auto bailout on Dec. 8th
Thoughts? Seems like a plausible week long trade that will net at least 100% gains, provided one begins legging in at the appropriate time.
Still no sign of Devildog.
Fly, we talk about retail and I have to ask, what are your thoughts on JCG after yesterdays clouds came out.
Because of all the talk on this blog, we’re brining a turkey for the first time this year. It better be good. There will be a deep fried back up as well.
well..
thanksgiving is not much to me.
but tomorrow ill eat turkey sandwich at the local deli.
thanks fly, if it wasnt for your insights i could have not join the party.
I do like the boots…
Those boots were made for…
lol… and thats just what we will do….
with my fine FCX profits, I will skip my usual WaWa lunch and head for a nice burger and a cold Octoberfest at my local Bar and Grill.
You rule your Flyness
I think legging into F and GM here might be a good play… not a grandiose position because the goverment is gonna leave some sector out in the cold and it just might be the automakers. But if they do get the money, which I believe they will, they have to fly…no pun
The government might save the automakers, but kill the shareholders.
Best outcome, IMO, is a prepackaged deal where the government provides a matching equity contribution. If the automakers can’t attract private investment dollars, then it gets no government dollars.
ottnott,
So you don’t see this as a perferred shareholder type deal?
It won’t be a fat check type deal that is for sure…
FXP is crashing below its 52 week low, and for whatever fucking reason, I don’t know … especially considering the fact that the Dog Eaters are going straight into the shit-hole, and things ain’t getting better anytime soon.
Idea:
Wait until the close because the market could rally stronger, then buy some FXP (possibly in the 40’s). That fucker is gonna bounce hard when the current rally dies. This rally is now overbought and will be losing momentum. It’s gonna roll over soon, probably on Black Friday when the stores are empty, or Monday when the Turkey Gods fly back home.
If UYG can get its mojo going, we can melt, the fuck, up, into the close.
We sell of next week.
CHL…..
buying KBR and GU.
One is a real co, the other is a Chinese dice roll.
Both are cash rich.
forget FXP!
there are much better battles out there … unlike my SRS battle … fuck that one, for now, too
Fly, what about your position in M? Are you still in it?
BNB – I have absolutely no idea what will really happen, and I have no reason to believe that my guesses are superior to the guesses of anyone else here.
But, that will never stop me from babbling on.
It does appear likely that any automaker deal comes during the Obama administration. In that case, you have the tension between the desire of the Democrats to save the (union) jobs and the history of adversity between the automakers and the Democrats (clashes over emissions standards, safety regulations, fuel-efficiency standards, and so on). The Democrats will want to make a deal, but it won’t be anything like the sweet deals the banks have been getting.
One very strong argument against a “fat check deal” is that it is clear that the automakers need to restructure in order to survive. Due to contractural obligations made in the past with its union workforce, the automakers can’t shrink their way to viability. Shrinking just increases the per-vehicle cost of the obligations.
Anyone heard from DEVILDOG? Wow…who would have thought he would be silent through this? Shocking.
SRS and SKF are down close to the range where I like to buy the shares and sell calls.
As a bonus, the SKF DEC 150 calls have the symbol SKFLY. Has to be a good omen.
I’d held both SRS and SKF for many months before letting them get called away at expiration last week. I never got to cash in on the 100+ point runs, but I probably booked more than $100 in premiums on each share over the months.
Devildog’s been moved to the poorhouse till further notice.
Will pick up FXP on the close, assuming there is a rally.
NOV melting up …
F it… I just got into some baby positions of Jan 09 calls of F 5 calls… and GM 6 and 7.5 calls… heavier on the 7.5… did that 20 mins ago and up 40% ford 15% gm… im thinking just hold them till Jan.
Keep in mind with these ultra death double etfs. When SRS & SKF went to 300, & IYR & UYG got compressed to 24 & 3; IYR has now rallied 30% off the bottom, slicing SRS well over 50% because its a double. UYG has nearly doubled crushing SKF by half. Should UYG move up to resistance at 8, SKF will drop another 40-50 points.
Timing is EVERYTHING with these suckers. After the underlying etf has been shattered, doubling off a low priced bottom can annihilate the ultra shorts.
We don’t call them DIEtfs for nothing.
The volatility has been gold for an options seller, but high premiums are a reminder of the importance of timing.
Fly,
You are the SHIT! Keep speaking your mind man, you are a true trader. Nose to the grindstone man, gotta love it.
ZM
Ottnott – I am not fond of selling premium on the DIEtfs .. because they lock you into your position & you can’t trade. I think the best option is to sell calls with a couple days to expiration. If you owned SRS last week, when the ETF was at 250, you could have sold the 220 calls for around 38 … at least 38 gives you some downside protection while you lock in a gain. These suckers can move 100 points in a day.
Of course it depends on whats been going on.
OMG! WHAT HAVE I FOUND HERE? Wonder if the big boys will let a woman play?
Pleae give me justice. Old man McCain is not letting buy $100,000 wardrobe anymore on his credit card.
This is hell. HELP!
P.S: Jake is my bitch.
Happy Thanksgiving
ESKkJK