Noteworthy Losers For February

It wasn’t all champagne corks into the faces of laughing fat men in February. We had some severe drawdowns in a number of stocks. Here were the highlights, or lowlights — depending on your point of view.

BABA -20%
JD -25%
MRNA -21%
SIRI -23%
LCID -22%
MTCH -23%
BILL -26%
W -32%
LYFT -37%
LUMN -34%
CHGG -23%
AG -23%
WRBY -21%
CGC -23%
OPEN -31%
BLNK -33%

INDUSTRIES

Synthetic Biology -22%
Silver -17%
Cannabis -16%
Online shopping -16%
Electric Vehicles -15%
Medical Equipment -17%
Chinese Burritos -11%
Nuclear -10%
Solar -10%
Biotech -9%

SECTORS

Healthcare -7.5%
Basic Materials -5.5%
Tech -4.8%

WINNERS:

Tankers +17%
Long term care +8%
Shipping +6.5%
Semis +4%
Auto dealerships +4%
Movie theaters +3.9%

Markets traded DOWN in February — between 2-3%, depending on what index you’re looking at. The semis, however, traded up — and one could say February was a solid consolidation month following an electric January.

But let’s make one thing abundantly clear: Le Fly reigns supreme — presently +8% for the month — outperforming all others with ease and grace.

Whilst you might read that and say to yourselves “oh wow, I am gonna join Stocklabs now and Fly is gonna teach me.” — nothing can be further from the truth. I will teach you nothing. In fact, I sometimes trick people for fun.

Look at Russia now — morons trying to destroy their own equipment they sold to Ukraine — because they got greedy. They sold them all of that military equipment and now that they’re enemies — they’re having a hard time destroying all of it. The same rules apply here. If I really teach you my secrets and we become enemies — I might have a hard time destroying you.

No. I will not be fooled into giving away state secrets for as little as $59.99 per mo. Am I retarded? Certainly not.

I am a fisherman and you are a customer. You are welcomed to enter my place of business and I will not only catch the fish — but cook it too. You can pay me for the fish and my time to cook it — and you may eat until your stomach explodes.

It’s very simple, quite frankly. You can study trading and eat books about it for the next 50 years and still not be as good as me. You wouldn’t ask Michael Jordan to teach you basketball and then expect to be as good or better than him — would you?

Don’t be silly.

I closed out my shorts at the open and now have a 107% long book, breezing into the late morning without a worry in the world.

Catastrophic day for the bulls. You could not stop the late day selling and the people are getting really nervous out there — staring at rates barely down 2bps on a strong up day.

Today, after it’s all said and done, was a dud. I close down just 1%, near my session highs — because of a late day COLLAPSE in semis and tech. I am 50% weighted SHORT on top of a fully long book.

There is no hope because there is no bull case. You should make arrangements now and plan for the worst.

I gave it until 1pm, the crashing of the market and all. It didn’t happen, so I allocated back into my weekly quant and now have a market neutral position. The expectation for today is SOFT LANDING because housing starts went up around +8% vs the 1% expected. Because of this chicanery, amongst other things, we’re back to fucking dreamland where war is peace, down is up, and sharply higher interest rates is GOOD for housing.

How often can one person get upset over these things? Eventually the heart gives way and the agitant dies off only to be replaced with someone younger who will also die off after enough years have gone by in deepening purple anger.

I cannot fight it anymore. I acqueisce to the faggotry at large and might now perhaps support Ukraine and their fucking homosexual flag and all of the other cool things NATO is bringing forth around the world, including expanding the Atlantic Ocean into Asia.

With regard to money supply and the Fed, they’re so awesome and amazing. I just can’t wait to pay my taxes.

I am down 1.25% for the session and I am sure 90% of you assholes are up for the day, enjoying the market as you day drink like the fools you are.

I thought markets would drop this morning and I was wrong. We raced up, paused, and raced up again — led higher by commodity related stocks, sans natural gas. Even still, I am giving the market a final chance, a warning if I might so bold, to collapse before lunch.

I sold out from all of my longs and now only hold SOXS and SQQQ, a dastardly combo in the midst of a melt up. The feeling of stupidity is enrobed around my person. All other persons seem to be having fun and making money, but me. All I wanted, frankly, was a small collapse — nothing too big, just so that I could profit and then feeeeeeel really good about my decisions. Instead, I an chiefly underperforming and on the ass-end of the market.

It’s very possible that my streak, my hot hand, is over and I am now to be faded. By the looks of it, today might be one of those pivotal days. Let’s see how it plays out until noon.

I’m often regaled with comments such as “you just said this Fly — and now you’re saying that! How dare you!” Whilst the sum total of what you’re trying to say, at least on the surface, makes sense. After all, how could a person who proclaims himself in the highest esteem be so changeable? You think that any person with an iota of integrity in what he believes in would be obstinate and more robust in his convictions.

But I am not such a man as this.

I am merely a weathervane in the big scheme of things — a person who is swayed easily with market whims and bases his decisions on real time information and not news that is stale and dated — a flippe flopper if you will.

For example.

The day before last I was bullish and in “excellent health” in both mind and spirit. And then the inflation data came out and I changed my mind. Now why in bloody hell would I do that? But the real question is this: If you need me to explain this to you, you, Sir, aren’t in the lease capable of managing your own money and should cease trying to do so at once.

I want you to take a gander at this chart I am about to post and look at the trend and tell me where it’s going next.

TLT

Before we gameplan the potential bullish scenarios for the market, let’s see what Larry Summers has to say about all this. I know it’s Lawrence Fucking Summers, liberal POS. But he is also known for speaking his mind when it comes to economics and really, when it comes down to it, knows more about this stuff than 99.9% of people walking around in these halls.

.@LHSummers: "The Fed can stop inflation. But whether it can stop inflation with a soft landing, without impacts on economic activity, that's been very much I doubt from the beginning."

Watch "Wall Street Week," airing Fridays at 6 pm ET https://t.co/rPy5CZW3Yj pic.twitter.com/uk7RCATrXG

— Bloomberg (@business) February 24, 2023

To summarize:

“We do not have historical examples of when unemployment is below 4% and the inflation is above 4%.”

In other words, if we were to have a soft landing — it would be unprecedented. There isn’t a base case for NOT barreling into recession. You understand, prole? Hard landing means zero bid trading and worse than expected economic data and unemployment. This will establish fear into markets and fear means we trade lower.

My entire bull case was predicated on the idea of a pivot, amazing soft landing, and homosexual giraffes serving iced cream outside of the White House for all of its visitors.

The current bull case is the next CPI number will come in softer than expected, led by a sudden collapse in commodity prices and/or substantial gains in Ukraine by NATO.

Can we trade up on Monday?

NO.

Good day.

Listen here you piece of shits —

Just because the market traded sideways from the morning, don’t get to thinking your brains will not be blown the fuck out clean come Monday. The pivot trade is over. Fundamentals are weakening. We will be at war with China by Xmas.

For the week I lost a little less than 1%. I closed heavily hedged leaning short — with a 50% allocation into inverses. I am quite emphatic in my belief that markets should, if I am being honest, CRASH INTO THE FUCKING ROCKS and crack asunder. You have nothing going for you anymore and very soon — dare I say — you’ll be out of ammo.

Not a Win

GOOD DAY.

We cannot reflate markets without reintroducing inflation back into the mix, as long as jobs are still enjoyed. In order to finally defeat the inflation boogeyman, which came out nowhere at all (God only knows how inflation happened in this country!), we need to once and for all get you fired from your jobs.

The CPI came in HOT at 0.6% v 0.5%. On the surface you’re like “oh no big deal” but it is actually the “biggest deal ever” because governments are toppled by angry mobs with pitched forks who do not like the prices of eggs.

Listen to me: The market had gone up in January based on the premise of a pivot and a pause and possible interest rte cut. Now we are looking at 50bps for May and rates exceeding 6% by summer.

We might see a resumption of the long commodity trade/short stocks — providing geopolitical events worsen. And, we might see risk averse stocks bid as the proles roll out of growth and back into the confines of security.

Either way, we DESERVE to be down more than 500 NASDAQ today, so be careful about buying dips.

I hedged fully and am now net short, 40% allocated into SOXS/SQQQ on top of a 100% long book — down 1.2% for the session.

I barely traded today, other than a few hedges early on. See, I do not need to trade, but choose to. My gains were automatic, as the market pressed higher my weekly quant picks did the job, which enabled me to green in peace.

We are once again bullish. My health is very good and my mood is excellent.

Some things to consider before you cast the market out a loser.

1. The SMH was +16.6% last month and is up 1% MTD.

That’s all I want you to consider, when thinking it’s 100% over. It might be over. God knows I want it over. But is it really that bad out there when the leading tech index is +1% following a +16% showing?

I think not.

Today was supposed to be an ebullient day spearheaded by NVDA. Well, as of now, that turned out to be a bust — as indices traded straight the fuck lower since the open.

I managed a 100% long book into this decline by simply using leverage to sell short via inverse ETF’s and cover quickly. The trick is to take LARGE positions, 10-40% of overall assets and you need to be fast. I basically short into downside momo and over at the first sign of a robust green candle. It looks something like this.

These trades kept me green. The VERI trade was a carry over from yesterday.

I might need to step back in and bulk up short into the late afternoon hours. I am better that, at least for now, we’ll get some respite and resumption of the bull trade — although, admittedly, it looks rather glum out there.