iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,376 Blog Posts

2024 Starts with Collapse

Barclays downgraded Apple this morning, sending all of the mega caps down 2%. Whilst at the same time the small caps are marginally higher. We are seeing very strong action in the crypto miners thanks to the holiday run higher in cryptos and we have early strength in oils, tankers,risk averse and biotechs.

It’s a confusing tape, with decent breadth and many cross currents, such as the US 10YR +6bps. I went to cash, +9bps early going.

The first week of January is the most important week of the trading year. The tone will be set early and the January effect never ceases to fascinate me.

I’ll tread carefully until I see a fat pitch.

Geopolitically, risk is very high. We had been trending higher the past two months thanks wholly on new FOMC schemes and the collapse in rates. Do not believe for a second markets can continue to trade up with rates also ticking up.

The Nasdaq is -233 and the Russell is now following it lower, -0.33%.

It’s over fucked faces.

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Finished 2023 +55.5%

I’d love to do nothing more than come here and talk shit for the final trading day of 2023. After all, I had a good year, by all accounts, making more than 55%. I’ve also reinitiated my strategic account and made some recent gains there too. My quant didn’t bode well, finishing up just 4.6% for 2023 and will be completely revamped in 2024.

Perhaps it’s just a passing mood, but I cannot be more disappointed in myself for missing the December rally — lowlit by neurotic over-churning and doubting every leg higher with a dizzying degree of indecision. Some people believe to trade the market in front of you is to be successful. Perhaps for some. But for me, I know when I am going to be right — call it a feeling or a sense of correctness that causes me to posses a bias that is ahead of the pack, resulting in grandiose returns. I had these premonitions before COVID and before the Russian war. Throughout 2023 I had zero convictions, other than the fact the economy was rigged to go higher.

I hold zero biases of any conviction and this is vexing me to no end. I want to believe in something, good or bad — take trades with a smirk knowing the future outcome. How can I be +55% and feel like a complete and total failure?

Some might argue this is good and I can use this feeling of inadequacy to “do better” in 2024 — but what a way to live — indeud.

Running along a similar vein of thought, I keep waiting to peak and my skills to drawdown. I actually look forward to it, so I can, perhaps, give up trading and fuck off somewhere for the balance of my life. Whenever I do begin to trade subpar, for any serious length of time, just know that I will not sully myself and trade poorly in a public venue — but will instead fuck off for good and bid you all a happy and warm farewell.

For all of those who read me in 2023 and who supported me via Stocklabs — thank you for your patronage. I really shouldn’t be doing this, as I belong in an office somewhere trading professionally — as I was trained to do. Then again, I actually hated it when I was there and do find pleasure in helping the unwashed catamite class of investor cut through the thickets of the tape in an everlasting journey to escape the housing tenements.

For New Year’s celebrations, I shall partake in champagne cocktails and catering on par with a man in my station of life. But just know, I will not like it.

Happy New Year’s to you and yours and cheers to a better trading environ in 2024 bestowing to us all the riches of a lifetime.

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The Final Collapse of 2023

Good day —

You woke up thinking markets would spike higher on this final trading day of 2023 — but you were wrong. Instead of that happening, you are now looking down the barrel of a market calamity.

Warnings were provided to you months in advance. It might be too late for some, as the wiping out is underway. But for those of you who aren’t wiped out, this is another warning for you.

2024 is looming and by the looks of this tape, we may never trade up again.

I know what you’re thinking “SHUT THE FUCK UP FLY, WE ARE GONNA RIP INTO THE BELL.”

Sir —

It’s over and it’s time for you to accept that.

Get your affairs in order before it’s too late.

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Slow Day on the Stock Market Plantation

Markets were boring today and there was little change in my pnl. I did close fully long with a little cash reserved for the morning dump. But since it’s end of year, I’ve been using the slow time to be productive — now progressing rapidly in “learning to code” — an absurd avocation if I’ve ever seen one.

Thus far, I’ve learned the rudiments of HTML, CSS, C and now Python, which is orders of magnitude better than C, which of course was orders of magnitude better than coding in binary. It’s both fascinating and yet monotonous and I can see why a professional programmer might hate his job. However mundane and absurd, if you’d apply your skills to create a product — it would all be worth it in the end.

HOWEVER, if chancing upon building a product — never think about money or having business be your prime motive. If you love what you do you’ll never work a day in your life and if you’re really good at what you do — you will be paid for it.

Books on my mantle include, but not limited to, Ulysses, The Cossacks, The Philosophy of Kant, and the Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. I’ve probably read 25+ books this year and have done so, at that pace, since my early 20s. I am 47 today.

It’s worth mentioning, long ago, upon taking up the avocation of reading, I decided to only read the classics — because those were never going to change and the new stuff I could catch up to later. I try to consume as much information as I can, utilizing Audible in the showers, car, and before bed — reading books in the morning and late evening. I have very little idle time in my day — never a moment of rest of repose.

I’ll have plenty of down time when I drop dead. Until then, I’ll keep working as diligently as I can, crafting my trade to its perfection — talking extreme shit online — causing people to feel emotional about my viewpoints.

Fucking off now — see you tomorrow.

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Friendly Reminder: Resistance is Futile

Remember when shares of $BUD suffered following going FULL TRANSGENDERED for their retarded sports fanatic trash fanbase? I’d first like to elucidate the erudite class of drinker who frequents bars or super markets and buys Budweiser. It isn’t the “King of Beers” and never has been. Budweiser has been marketed to, almost exclusively, trashy animal-like people for decades. The fact they tossed some trans person onto their platform to speak to them is hilarious and really telling at how tone deaf large corporations are, similar to Disney marketing to children and also LGBTQ at the same time and expecting parents to sop it up.

But this blog post isn’t about making you feeeeeeel better about boycotting Budweiser, but much worse. I’d like to show you the chart of $BUD the past 6 months and remind you that the stock is UP nearly 8% for 2023.

Your boycotts stand and do nothing. Over the past 3 months, shares of $BUD have outclassed all other brewers, +20%, whilst shares of $SAM plunged 9% — because no one gives a fuck about plucky craft beers and companies that “do the right thing” by their customers.

I’d also like to inform you that shares of $SBUX, $NKE, $TGT and $DIS are likely to soar in 2024 — because fuck you. These are global companies that no longer requite the patronage of America and they server a greater master.

Why the blackpill?

Because many of you are tricked and fooled into believing tweets and videos and discussions about billion dollar corporations will move the needle enough to make a difference. These corporations would serve you and your interests providing you had power — but you don’t — which is why it’s important to never compromise on your values and to place your energy and money into a broader societal change, rather than micro-focusing on corporations who are soulless and cannot be reformed.

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Looking For Cheap Wares

I sometimes like to pretend the market isn’t all knowing and there is some unforeseen value yet to be unlocked. I envision myself a maven diving into a thesis trade before everyone else. I wade into names that are hated and wait out the storm until the worm turns and sell into the reward.

This actually rarely happens and I’ve maybe done this in practice 5 times during my illustrious trading career, instead opting for buying what is working now in favor of what might work in the future.

But we can still dream and they can never stop me.

On the issue of dreaming, I often think about China and how the Hang Seng is down at 15 year lows, harangued by the communists and their machinations — bedraggled by autocrats who show little respect for free markets. Nonetheless, from time to time the Chinese really do give a good run and according to the data — that run, dare I say, might happen soon.

Based on the seasonality data inside Stocklabs, Chinese stocks do best in January. Do not ask me why, as I am not interested in providing you with any answers. Just accept it as a fact and look at the graphic for $BABA below.

My favorites are $BABA, $NIO, $WB and perhaps $BEKE. There are many others and the winner this year has been $PDD. But I think any liquid China name will suffice, if the likes of BABA rampage higher in January.

The trick here is to stay with the trade. We might get a 10% pop and then get lured into another trade, tempted to sell out of the China trade just as it’s getting started. I feel I need to work on being more patient with some of these thesis trading ideas and may do so in 2024.

Food for thought as you trade the chop-slop.

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Update on My Fucking Swing Trading Account

One of the biggest complaints I’ve heard about my trading the past 3 years is that I’m too fast, one moment short the next long — a chaotic blend of madness and genius that somehow produces outsized results. It never used to be this way, as I made my way through Wall Street building positions and excelling in core thesis ideas and swing trading.

Lucky for you, several months ago I decided to try my hand at swing trading account, defined as long/short portfolio with holding periods longer than 1 week. I might do 2 or 3 trades per week — nothing exceptional.

This account I speak of is now +27% the past few months and has no intention of heading lower any time soon. I am so impressed with it, I am actually mad at myself for beating the shit out of my trading account — most likely due to an undiagnosed mental ailment.

Above is the chart of my performance in that account and some recent trades. I tell you these things, as a public service. After all, if I don’t tell you these things — how would you ever know and how would I ever build the ranks of Stocklabs?

Yes, the basic level of services is privy to my portfolios and picks, so stop emailing me.

Heading into tomorrow, I am fully long without hedges. I somehow blew an early +65bps gain and closed flat. I am not really focused at the moment — but will be getting as serious as a fucking heart attack as soon as 2024 rings in.

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We’re in the Twilight of Collapse

I’m a bit lost without the specter of looming disaster or melt up. The sudden surge in stock prices these last two months has surprised many of the permanent bear type of investor into a state of shock. We’ve lost so many fellow ursine to the horrors of the bull market, which, by the way, came out from nowhere — much to the delight of the transgendered bull who lies and tells tall tales of it always being here.

‘Tis isn’t true. Might I remind them stocks COLLAPSED in 2022 to the tune of 35%, tossing many of man straight out of their dining room windows onto the hard unforgiving pavement below.

After such a year, we expected a repeat of sorts in 2023 — but sadly that didn’t happen. In its stead, we got fucking $META and $NVDA up triple digits and just about every stock that fell in 2022 soared back to record highs in 2023. With such performance, in the face of such fright, who could ever doubt the market again?

I doubt it and I am here to remind you that, although it doesn’t appear to be over — it really and truly is. The sands of time have already started to dissipate and there isn’t much left to do other than having to wait for the eventual and final collapse to occur.

Meanwhile, we get to trade in a neurotic tape filled with pops and drops, sudden third world movements fucked with “fuck you candles” and news driven events shopped heavily by circus clowns in the media — beclowing themselves for the sake of borrowing time.

I’m having difficulty, again, refining my trading account and have seen my swing trading account beat it by orders of magnitude. I am up nearly 16% in my swing and just 1.5% in my trading for the month of December — mostly due to churning myself and reacting to a market that veils it’s true nature with jerky movements. I am sure there are many who are crushing it. But this isn’t “my sort of tape” and I am contemplating whether I should switch the strategy to swing trading, absolving myself from having to deal with the day to day pangs and the horrors of the bull market.

I titled this post based off of a fact, which incidentally has nothing to do with the stock market. I’ve come to realize a long time ago the market trades off emotions and money supply — rarely if ever reflecting the overall health and prosperity of its people.

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Homebuilders Led the way in 2023

Who would’ve guessed that heading into 2023, a year rife with banking scares, inflation, and collapse in mortgage applications — the best performers would be the companies building homes.

I remember the last time homies led the way, circa 2006-2007 when they traded like tech stocks, just before their eventual collapse. In order for the housing market to collapse, we’d need to see delinquencies and we are not seeing that at all. Perhaps we are a few years away? Wishful thinking.

Copper is bid higher by nearly 2% and iron ore futures are at 18 mo highs. Crypto currency Solana is up 800% this year and all of the NFTbros are back. It’s sickening to see it and even worse is when you’re not in it. But we can’t keep hating things forever. The cortisol is bad for our life expectancies. Perhaps we should join the transgendered bulls and gravitate towards wanton degeneracy?

The action looks encouraging early on. But we are at the end of the year, so don’t expect much.

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Getting Robbed is Part and Parcel of Living in the Modern World

It takes very little to mess up a trading day, especially when arriving to the scene late. I was mostly out of pocket today, +34bps at the open, and then ebbed into the afternoon session and had enjoyed +50bps of gains for most of the day, up until the last 10 mins or so when markets GAPPED DOWN and offered a mini collapse, taking my gains down to just +19bps for the session.

I think about these sort of things often and try to concoct methods to avoid succumbing to such retarded price action — but I’ve concluded that it cannot be avoided — no different than living in a modern diverse metropolis. To be mugged and robbed, raped and murdered, is part and parcel of being an investor or trader in the modern era. We get to enjoy the many accoutrements unavail to the rural poor, trading in this modern era of perfidy and grandiloquent delight. We have lots of money to grabble and there are opportunities to step over other traders to take whatever sums of money our heart’s desire.

HOWEVER, on day’s like today, when off or simply not plugged in, we get mugged a little. If you were traversing NYC today and spent the day in that first rate city, mostly enjoying yourself amidst the excesses, and, just before going home, got robbed for the contents of your wallet — you might find comfort in the fact that you had an otherwise profitable day and the contents of your wallet was not even a 0.01% representation of your net worth.

In other words, getting robbed or mugged in NYC is part of the parcel that is living in the city. Providing you’re not walking around with your entire net worth inside of your wallet, it’s not really that big a deal to get chanced upon every so often.

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