iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,895 Blog Posts

Putin Says the West is Trying to ‘Cancel’ Russia — Things Will Only Get Worse

Peace negotiations have failed in Ukraine and Russia is now focusing their efforts on Eastern Ukraine, digging in defensive position to the north of Kiev. Meanwhile, the west continues to add gasoline to the fires by sending in weaponry to the Zelensky regime, but more important intelligence. The idea of this being acceptable to the Russian military commanders is astounding but it’s only a matter of time before both Romania and Poland get dragged into the fray.

It seems America has thrown itself completely into this war, short of sending troops to fight. We are treating this as if Ukraine was our dearest ally — and not a former Soviet state with deep roots to Nazism. Nevertheless, it is a client state and has been since 2014, so “the west” is going to do everything they can to stop Russia — down to the last Ukrainian. There are much bigger plans for Ukraine and it doesn’t include the people who live there now.

Interestingly, out of all the topics to broach today — Putin chose the cancel culture narrative and for a very specific reason. Russia being one of the few “anti-woke” countries remaining on the map is getting their people riled up in a spiritual war against the west. People will not accept war without a meaning, so he is trying to make this more about good v evil, attempting to play the role of the liberator of truth and the way of life on par with conservative ideals. This is the same reason why many on the right empathize with Putin: he represents the opposite of the current woke madness spreading throughout the west like a plague.

“Today they are trying to cancel a whole thousand-year culture, our people”

“I am talking about the gradual discrimination against everything linked to Russia… a tendency unfolding in a number of Western countries,” he said.

“The proverbial ‘cancel culture’ has become a cancellation of culture,” Putin said, adding that works by Russian composers were being excluded from concerts and books by Russian authors were being “banned”.

“The last time such a mass campaign to destroy unwanted literature was carried out was by the Nazis in Germany almost 90 years ago … books were burned right on the squares,” Putin said.

“Not so long ago children’s author JK Rowling was cancelled because she, a writer of books that have sold millions of copies around the world, didn’t please fans of so-called ‘gender freedoms’,” Putin said.

And then we have this poor old man leading us into God knows what.

Here are some other notable headlines:

RUSSIAN MILITARY SAYS WAR ENTERING ‘SECOND PHASE’

US 10YR ENCROACHES ON 2.5%

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS REFUSAL TO BUY RUSSIAN GAS FOR ROUBLES COULD LEAD TO A CRISIS OF FAILED PAYMENTS AND A SERIES OF BANKRUPTCIES GLOBALLY – RIA

THE KREMLIN: THE RUSSIAN MILITARY WILL MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PUTIN ON HOW TO BEST RESPOND TO NATO’S STRENGTHENING OF ITS EASTERN FLANK.

EU’S VON DER LEYEN: THE LNG FROM U.S. WILL REPLACE LNG FROM RUSSIA

RUSSIAN MILITARY: IT IS A BIG MISTAKE THAT THE WEST SUPPLIES WEAPONS TO UKRAINE, THIS PROLONGS THE CONFLICT – IFAX

RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS RUSSIAN TROOPS WILL REACT IMMEDIATELY TO ANY ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AIRSPACE OVER UKRAINE – RIA

RUSSIAN MILITARY TO FOCUS ON `FULL LIBERATION’ OF DONBAS: IFX

U.S., NATO DOING CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT RUSSIA CHOOSES TO STRIKE NATO TERRITORY -WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SULLIVAN

Indian Government is expected to formally announce a INR-RUB payment arrangement next week which would allow the bypassing of US sanctions

Hungarian Foreign Ministry: Hungary rejected Ukraine’s call to allow arms supplies through its territory and to abandon Russian oil and gas.

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MORTGAGE RATES ARE SOARING

Treasuries are being killed again, with the 10yr +12bps to a staggering 2.46%. The ancillary side effects of that is all commercial paper, IG and junk, are also getting flayed. But most importantly — mortgage rates are fucking soaring.

The higher it goes, alongside the increase in home values due to labor and materials inflation, the more fucked the American consumer is trying to buy a home. In normal circumstances the home values would correct lower due to a decrease in affordability. However, thanks to inflation and the “replacement cost” way up in housing — prices are stubbornly high — ergo STAGFLATION.


Junk Bonds

None of this bodes well for the economy, nor does America having to replace Russia in supplying Europe with natural gas. Because of this — OUR COST TO HEAT OUR HOMES IS SOARING, as NG crests and flexes above $5.50 now.

There is a tipping point in all this but we don’t know it yet. When we cross it and demand destruction is apparent, prices will collapse and the inflation story will abate. Until then, the best way to hedge your expenses is to make some coin long the commodity complex.

As for me, I sold everything but my 10% TZA hedge this morning, locking in a +235bps gain.

NOTE: We are doing a stock trading contest inside Stocklabs for April. You can try us out for free (7 days) by signing up here. Trialers WILL NOT, however, get to compete. The contest and $1,000 prize for first place are for members only.

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CANNABIS STOCKS ARE RALLYING NOW — THE END IS NEAR

After the bell this news broke:

New Jersey Pot Board Approves First Group of Licenses for Recreational Use

For fucks sake, they have a ‘pot board.’

New Jersey’s cannabis board took its first formal action on recreational marijuana applications, approving 68 conditional licenses to cultivate, manufacture or run a testing lab

I went long a fuckload of cannabis stocks into the close after seeing them pop the fuck up on my Alpha screens. I enjoyed +400bps in gains in the after-hours session and now sport and also STAND BEFORE YOU +30% YTD

LOOK AT THE PAGEANTRY

We are close to the end of the rally. This past week has bore immense interest in Chinese Burritos, Small Biotech Hand grenades, and now pot stocks.

Expect a reversion to the mean sharply lower next week.

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DEBAUCHERY LARGESS — RISK STOCKS TAKE THE FUCK OFF

Towards the end of the session, cannabis stocks lit the fuck up — enabling me to juice my returns to over +1% for the session. I closed long AKAN, MAPS, HEXO and GNLN in the pot space. I finished long, as a matter of fact, 101% with a 10% hedge in TZA. I will almost always take some sort of hedge into the close due to the inclement new environment we’re in.

But make no mistake — today’s +270 point gain in the NASDAQ, coupled with rallies in cannabis, NFTs, cryptos, and a sundry of commodities means we are back to high risk again and not likely to pull back tomorrow. The speculative fervor is back and you’d be wise to jump in now, lest end up with a life of regrets later.

I’m +25.5% for 2022 so far, trading at my absolute best in over a year. GET THE FUCK IN Stocklabs NOW if you know what’s good for you.

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THE BIRTH OF THE PETROL-BITCOIN, PETROL-GOLD TRADE IS HERE

Two major news items today that might have a profound effect on markets.

RUSSIA WILL ALLOW “UNFRIENDLY COUNTRIES” TO PAY FOR NATURAL GAS IN GOLD

RUSSIA WILL ALLOW “FRIENDLY COUNTRIES” TO PAY FOR NATURAL GAS IN BITCOIN

For decades the Unites Steaks has worked tirelessly through various methods to achieve dominance via the petrol-dollar — promoting “Pax Americana” around the world and demand for dollars. Due to sanctions applied to Russia, for the first time ever — this convenience is threatened.

Going forward, Russia will only accept payment in Rubles or Gold for enemies and for friends — Bitcoin. By normalizing this, one could see how this might catch on into other areas of trade and/or nations who are against the dollar being so dominant at a time when it’s being weaponized to inflict damage to people.

The other news item worth thinking about is this:

MACRON: THE SITUATION WILL BE EVEN WORSE IN 12 TO 18 MONTHS AS UKRAINE CANNOT SOW

If you thought food supplies were scarce now and expensive, wait until you see where they are in 18 months, following months of war in Ukraine that prevented sowing of crops. We could possibly see by next year Russia occupying Ukraine and also possessing Europe’s nuts in their hands via control of 40% of the worldwide wheat and fertilizer supply.

As a result, stocks like MOS, NTR, CF, BG are mandatory buys, in my opinion.

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Markets Are Trending Up — What’s Next?

In classic Wall Street fashion, we are climbing all of the walls of worry at once. The QQQ is now almost up 3% for March, after being deballed in both Jan and Feb. The stark reversals in March aren’t without reason. It is widely believed now the economy is doing fine, in spite of the inflationary headwinds. People are independently wealthy and can afford any price, in our decadent/degenerate country.

That is my best guess on what might play out, should we continue to trend higher. Of course, all of this could change by 3pm with one bad headline. What the market is saying, more or less, is Russia has lost and do not pose a serious threat to the west. Yesterday the market was panicked about the specter of European gas shortages. Basically, we’re winging it. But the trend is up. More than that, for the first time in a long time, day trading is fun and gains are outsized. Just a short while ago, I’d be content with 1-2% gains on a day trade; now the bands have widened considerably and have been enjoying double digit returns on an intra day basis. It’s been so good, I feel as if money could be made almost at will.

Today’s trends are mixed, some weakness in oils, strength in ag, ag sciences, electric cars, mixed on Chinese burritos, strong on crypto miners, with an emphasis on small cap volume breakouts, suggestive that risk is on.

Nevertheless, I’m holding a UVXY hedge just in case.

 

 

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California to Pay Car Owners $400 Per Car Due to Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine; Nickel Limit Up Again

In an effort to assuage the masses, Gov. Newsom is proposing giving residents up to $800 per month in order to pay for their gas, citing Putin as the prime reason as to why gas prices are sky high. Ironically, it is exactly programs like this that will continue to denigrate the purchasing power of the dollar, in an never-ending, self-consuming, cycle of inflation that will decapitate purchasing power.

“We’re taking immediate action to get money directly into the pockets of Californians who are facing higher gas prices as a direct result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” Newsom.

Yesterday Nickel was “limit up” on the LME, so the exchange decided to cancel the entire trading day — rending all trades “null and void.”

And Nickel is limit up again today, +20%.

We have not heard what the LME intends to do about this sharp increase in the price of nickel again. One could only assume some very powerful people are short and will request the LME cast all trades today as “null and void” again, giving the cabal a chance of reset and play the game again tomorrow.

Russia accounts for roughly 10% of worldwide nickel supply.

UPDATE: THE LME CANCELS ALL TRADES AS ‘NULL AND VOID’ FOR SECOND SESSION IN A ROW.

LME SAYS SECOND RING SESSION ON MARCH 24 IN NICKEL WILL BE DEEMED A DISRUPTED SESSION AND ALL AGREED TRADES DURING THIS SESSION WILL BE NULL AND VOID

Here are some other headlines.

GERMAN COALITION PARTIES SHUT DOWN OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CAN BE SUSPENDED

U.S. TREASURY SAYS GOLD-RELATED TRANSACTIONS INVOLVING RUSSIA MAY BE SANCTIONABLE UNDER U.S. AUTHORITIES

UKRAINE DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS RUSSIA IS SENDING MORE MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO BELARUS TO BOOST EFFORT TO SEIZE KYIV

RUSSIA MOVE TO RUBLES FOR GAS WOULD BE SECURITY THREAT: BIROL

UKRAINE PRESIDENT TELLS NATO UKRAINE NEEDS FIGHTER JETS, TANKS, BETTER AIR DEFENCE AND ANTI-SHIP WEAPONS

OLDER PEOPLE MAY NEED ANNUAL COVID BOOSTERS, MODERNA CEO SAYS

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: RUSSIA WILL RETALIATE OVER POLAND’S DECISION TO EXPEL RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS.

UKRAINE CALLS EU COUNTRIES TO NOT PAY RUSSIA IN RUBLES FOR GAS

GERMANY TO SEND 2000 ANTI-TANK WEAPONS TO UKRAINE, UK TO SUPPLY 6000 MISSILES – PRESSTV

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WORLDWIDE SUPPLY OF NEON DISRUPTED DUE TO UKRAINIAN WAR

Not only will worldwide supplies of wheat, fertilizer, nickel, aluminum, gas and oil be short supply due to Russian sanctions —- so will semiconductors due to a shortage of neon gas produced by Ukraine. That’s right, little Ukraine owns this market and covers nearly 50% of worldwide supplies.

Some 45%-54% of the world’s semiconductor grade neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from the companies and market research firm Techcet. Global neon consumption for chip production reached about 540 metric tons last year, Techcet estimates.

The financial ramifications of economic warfare with Russia is going to be felt by May.

The stoppage casts a cloud over the worldwide output of chips, already in short supply after the coronavirus pandemic drove up demand for cell phones, laptops and later cars, forcing some firms to scale back production.

While estimates vary widely about the amount of neon stocks chipmakers keep on hand, production could take a hit if the conflict drags on, according to Angelo Zino, an analyst at CFRA.

“If stockpiles are depleted by April and chipmakers don’t have orders locked up in other regions of the world, it likely means further constraints for the broader supply chain and inability to manufacture the end-product for many key customers,” he said.

Before the invasion, Ingas produced 15,000 to 20,000 cubic meters of neon per month for customers in Taiwan, Korea, China, the United States and Germany, with about 75% going to the chip industry, Nikolay Avdzhy, the company’s chief commercial officer, said in an email to Reuters.

In case you’re concerned about inflation, do not worry the state of California is going to pay $400 per car per month to cover gas expenses . Printing more money is of course the answer to stop inflation in a fucking clown world.

REMINDER: the US currency reserve status is in danger for first time ever. With Russia demanding payment in Rubles for gas, it’s only a matter of time before the demand payment in Rubles for all of their exports. The ramifications of this, coupled with America’s belligerent actions towards China, could be catastrophic for the dollar. My thesis of a black swan event in the dollar has never been more possible than now. We are seeing it happen and will be able to discern the progress of the Petrol-Ruble in the coming days and weeks. If the Ruble gets back down to 75 per dollar, this would be on par with an American defeat from an economic point of view and might cause some serious FX disruptions.

Gold and oil are my best idea hedges, alongside Australian dollars.

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SLAVA iBANKCOIN!

It’s not supposed to be easy. If it was, all of you losers could do it on your own. You tried to do it in 2021 and had fun watching Dave Portnoy eating pizza and losing millions due to of his inexperience in the market. You felt glib and bold and went all in when Chamath showcased his skinny legs. Now look at you — total loser with an account in shambles.

Bull markets come and they go and so do the gurus. But only legitimate market Noblemen are able to survive the bear. The fires are indeed burning bright and I have never been fooled by peace in my entire life. I am always in a state of permanent war and can never be tricked by notions of treaties or even an armistice.

BEHOLD AND FEAST YOUR EYES UPON MY ACCOUNTS — ALL AT RECOURD HIGHS YOU STUPID FUCKING SON OF A BITCHES.

What is this trading account?

My whole life I traded longer term and very rarely did I ever day trade. That changed after I created the volume tools in Stocklabs, so in late 2020 I placed an account worth $100k into action and day traded.

$100k to $600k in two years. I think I’m good at day trading too.

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EUROPE DOESN’T WANT TO PAY IN RUBLES — CITES CONTRACT LAW

Russia is at war with a nation and the west is supporting that nation to wage war and kill Russians. The west seizes all of Russia’s FX reserves, even $100b in gold, and then balk at the idea of Russia demanding payment for gas in Rubles.

What sort of hubris is this?

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: PAYING FOR GAS IN RUBLES WOULD BREAK CONTRACTS
ITALY NOT INCLINED TO PAY RUBLES FOR RUSSIA GAS: DRAGHI ADVISER
ITALY ECON ADVISER: PAYMENT IN RUBLES WAY TO EXCAPE SANCTIONS

Do they believe Russia should just lay down and roll over — starve to death, permit NATO to takeover Moscow and subjugate their people with CRT classes and gender identity freedoms?

 

Markets are beginning to sour, but nearly reflective of the potential dangers of having the petrol-dollar destroyed. While it’s true, Europe is making arrangements for alternative sources of gas for 2023 — it’s also true they cannot import all of that LNG without incurring immense expenses. One could argue the people of Europe are suffering more than Russians — who now have to deal with the pangs of toxic western culture removed from their airwaves and shopping malls.

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