iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,405 Blog Posts

Waiting for the Recession to Return

I’m eating a giant bowl of oatmeal now. I felt you should know that, considering its market moving implications.

Being in cash, I really have nothing meaningful to do, aside from throwing darts at Bernanke’s beard— for fucking up my stock market crash party.

Looking at the constant pressure the bulls are under, with bear raid after bear raid, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late date sell off. Some of the financials are still blasting off, such as [[RDN]], [[PMI]], [[FMD]], [[ACF]], [[FIG]], [[LAZ]] and [[BEN]].

However, it’s worth noting, the fucking monolines, [[SCA]], [[MBI]], [[ABK]], are sucking wind, thanks to a delay in the NYS proposed bailout. Perhaps the bailout stems from the lack of funds? Just a thought.

Look, we’re getting a nice overdue bounce back, especially in heavily shorted stocks. Make no mistake, we are in a bear market. On this bounce, instead of looking for long set ups, you should be looking for shorts.

In my opinion, the size of the recent decline is unimportant—to an extent. I will not be convinced the market is due to rally, unless weakness persists until mid to late February.

Sorry, but as gut wrenching the recent decline was, it was too short. For a real washout to occur, most of you bullish fuckers need to get debanked, entirely.

For now, I will wait for a cheaper prices to reenter [[SMN]], [[DUG]] and [[FXP]]. I will not average down in [[SKF]], unless it dips to $90 or below.

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The Recession is Over

So Cramer says it’s time to buy “early cycle stocks,” like shitty retailers or banks. He exclaims: “the worst they are, the better.”

I must admit, the recession of 2008 was plain ol’ vanilla gay. I mean, it had no teeth. During the entire recession, I witnessed only one soup line and three boarded up buildings. Other than that, my neighbor’s kept buying shit, without fear of job loss or house depreciation.

God willing, the next recession will bring some ol’ fashioned homelessness.

Bring back the soup lines and the low-end dock jobs.

Anyway, with regards to this market:

Following yesterday’s terrific bounce, I expect to see follow through. However, unlike other ‘tards, if I were giving advice to people who actually invested real money, as opposed to excess cash—post cocaine expenditures,  I’d suggest buying stocks with good fundamentals, such as [[CLX]], [[RIMM]], [[GILD]], [[FMCN]] or even [[VLO]].

Currently, as you know, I have a gigunta cash position, with a decent sized short position in the financials, via [[SKF]].

Listen to me: I will live this trade. I will not walk away from killing a few “early cycle” bank plays. My game plan includes sitting around, drinking some Monster Energy soda, taking short naps, going for egregious walks, then nibbling at SKF—until the banks fuck themselves, again.

Waiting for the proverbial “shoe to drop,” if you will.

Aside from that, I hate [[DECK]] and the assholes who buy their boots. I shoulda, woulda, coulda covered my short yesterday, when it was down $17. However, now I own the bitch, for better or for worse.

Finally, I may try my luck on a few long side trades, specifically within financials, despite hating them. I might hedge my hedges with [[UYG]] or worse [[SAW]].

Developing…

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Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy

Off we go like a motherfucking rocket ship.

I just got home and had a chatt [sic] with my neighbor, Steve. Dude, that guy is so fucking amped that Bernanke cut rates, coupled with Bush’s stimulus package, he just bought a new plasma. A.Brand.New.Plasma.

No kidding.

Aside from that, he’s telling me he just refinanced his house, “at significantly lower rates,” enabling him to tap that shit for a little vacation and Macy’s money.

I’m like, holy fuck, we’re gonna have a rocketship market soon. Clear the deck bitches, this market is ready to pop off, leaving every bear dead—like slugs in a salt mine.

Also, the retailers are going to take off. Shoot, forget about the “tapped out” consumer. All of a sudden, thanks to the proposed NYS bailout of [[MBI]] and [[ABK]], people are flooding my local Best Buy for the newest shit. Apparently, most of them were worried their muni insurance would go away.

Not any more.

And the banks, they’re enfuego. Everyone is refinancing. I mean everyone.

They’re so busy, my local Countrywide had to fire all of the lazy fuckers, because they were using up all the excess cocaine. As you know, excess cocaine allows the mortgage brokers to work 18 hours shifts, without lunch.

They’re just “banging out refi’s.”

A bearish friend of mine asked me: “hey Fly, what about all of the credit risk at the banks? And, how about all of the resets, while housing prices are dropping”?

I replied: “yo asshole, have you seen what the fuck is going on? Bernanke just shaved his beard on those subprime fuckers—giving them access to cheap rates again. And, with super low rates, all of those coked out mortgage workers can bang out a few million fresh mortgages for lower-middle income families, who desire 500-900k Mcmansions—effectively depleting all of the inventory at [[HOV]].

Yes, it’s that simple. Although things looked really tough for the past 3 weeks, everything is back on track.

Nasdaq 5,000 here we come!

Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy!!!

NOTE: That was one tough recession. I never want to go through that again. I’m so glad it’s over.

UPDATE: Classic CNBC.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU 450 300]

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Bulls Win Again

What a fucking turnaround, once again. It goes to show you, when things look most dire, it is time to buy.

Kudos to Cramer and Kass for calling the bottom in financials, much to my chagrin.

This is what I did:

I sold all my my inverse etf’s, with the exception of [[SKF]] and [[EFU]]. Additionally, stubbornly, I continue to hold my [[DECK]] and [[LEH]] shorts.

My largest position, by far, is cash.

Look, I realize a bailout of [[MBI]] and [[ABK]] will do wonders for the banks. I’m not oblivious. However, it does not mean the banks will be back to business. There is still significant pressures within lending.

In short, I am prepared to ride SKF down another 20 points, before buying more. I will not average down here.

With today’s rally, the DOW is barely down 7%, year to date—hardly a painful decline.

When buying stocks, keep in mind, Joey Bag-o-Donuts is still one poor motherfucker, unable to buy that third plasma tv.

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Sell the Banks!

No way those fuckers keep their gains, in the face of this blade (bear raid) on the markets neck.

While it’s true, many of you hatfuckers are waiting for a “bounce,” it’s not happening today.

The ECB is still fighting inflation. That’s right, those fuckers are living in a world of wonder, as the planet burns.

At the same time, all of the talking heads on CNBC are telling you (internet leech) to go long stocks, for a “tradeable bottom.”

Fuck that.

If you’re in cash, stay put. If you’re short the market, press your bets son; things are about to get sporty.

With Europe down 4% and Asian stocks getting the “knife to the stomach” treatment, my guess we will decline 3% today.

With my money, I am taking advantage of the unseemly dip in [[SKF]], thanks to asshole bank dip buyers. On the next leg down, expect the SKF to touch $140.

Finally, the Fed will not cut by 50bps next week. If so, I’ll eat my website.

NOTE: I’m buying [[EFU]] here too. Fuck Asia.

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Fly Buy: REW

I bought 3,000 [[REW]] @ $76.50.

Disclaimer: If you buy REW because of this post, the next time the market crashes, your discount house account will be frozen, due to technical difficulties. And, you may lose money.

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