Back on the Bean

Full disclosure: “The Fly” has been drinking coffee again, at a rate that cannot be described by a mere blog post. Courtesy of my Keurig single server coffee maker aka “The Best Invention since God” (thank you Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] !), I’ve been “beaned up” 15 hours per day, for more than a week now.

Interestingly enough, since I’ve been geeked out on caffeine, I’ve had zero desire for alcoholic beverages, not even a beer.

Looking into the future, courtesy of my crystal ball and space aged portal devices, I expect [[TLT]] to trade up, as America forces treasuries down the throats of those who peg to the U.S. dollar (Fuck China!). I know you think China will “man-up” and cease financing our debt one day. ROFL!!! That’s just silly talk, especially since doing that would mean mutual destruction.

Betting on China taking its “wet tit” away is equal to those nuclear bomb bunker motherfuckers, back in the 50’s, promising “imminent nuclear war.”

Just like the old Soviet Union, China does not have the balls to start a financial apocalypse.

As a result, I’ve been buying [[TLT]] down at these levels, while guzzling preposterous sized jars filled with liquid bean.

Judging by his attire (no blue blazer), this is not a serious topic. Nonetheless, nothing kicks off the weekend like a little DENNINGER vid.

In other news, fellow PPT gentleman and industry pro, Robert, has a great post up about fundamental analysis. I know most of you enjoy charts, for the same reason why high school kids prefer cliff notes over reading whole books. Despite all of that, take a moment or two to hear the man out.

We all love a good manipulated to the upside market, unless of course we are short and swimming in our own feces. While banking coin in the market, it’s important to remember there are non-descript men walking around throwing hand grenades at people. Their intent is to derail the markets and send your 401k plan to $00.00. Most of the time, the fabulous trading robots from Goldman (of course!) defeat these men via shooting them with space aged laser beams. However, every once in awhile, the men in burlap prevail, sending you and your stupid friends to the unemployment line.

Keep your eye on [[TLT]] , for it is telling you something, ever so quietly. While the market goes higher on less than inspiring volume, big money is being fork lifted into treasuries. This is a very interesting paradigm, especially since there are no real signs of distress, unless you consider Greece important.

For the most part, corporate earnings have been stellar and there are no real red flags to discuss, with the small exception of INSANE amounts of expenses needing to be financed this year.

Nevertheless, I remain stoic in my approach to disengage the market, via large amounts of cash and treasury holdings. I have not shorted anything, or bought [[VXX]] , because I am afraid of the robots. Betting against this market is like starting a gay rights movement in Iran—always a bad idea.

In short, my year to date gains are still around 9%. The year is young and there will be easier markets to trade, than the one we are faced with now.

UPDATE: I bought 75,000 Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. [[SSTI]] , under $3.20.

One of my favorite pastimes is viewing the idiotic behavior of my peers. Whether at theater, dinner or at Target Corporation [[TGT]] , I enjoy observing human behavior and people with flawed overtones. “Normal people” are boring, but most likely to murder you over the last pair of black socks, size large, at Target—fyi. In general, people are narcissists, always putting their own ideas or causes ahead of others. I especially enjoy when people talk about themselves, as if anyone cared. The same flawed people trade the stock market and think the entire investing world revolves around their actions. You may know who these people are when hearing them say “Oh, I just bought XYZ, watch it go down now. I am such a jinx and fucking gayyyy.”

As I write this, they are tossing their entire accounts into an ideology that is basically a fucking guess. Whether it’s long or short, the crime is the same. NEVER go “all in” based upon what you believe will happen in the market. As a matter of fact, unless you have a serious edge on something, NEVER go “all in” period. I hear people say this (going all in) all the time and it makes me sick. There are no fucking short-cuts in life. If you want to build wealth, it takes time to build an account, through consistent contributions and discipline. Do not be the albatross on your family’s neck, by way of losing the entire family nest egg, because you had a “smart idea” that didn’t pan out. And quit watching Wall Street so much. You’re not Gordon Gekko.

On a separate note, I hate snow. And, if I might be so bold, I fucking nailed the [[TLT]] trade, thus far.

Today is a do nothing day. So go outside and play with some snowballs.

Starting tomorrow, on The PPT,  I will launch my 4th tracking index: Risk Appetite.

The components are all sensitive to the whims of credit, some focused on sovereign debt, others hold muni, corp and preferred stock investments. All in all, it will serve as a great way to monitor credit conditions, from a poor man’s real time perspective, without the luxuries of fancified bloomberg terminals spitting out stupid CDS quotes.

For now, this will suffice.

NOTE: Yes, it will be tracked with a fancy chart and composite technical reading, using PPT’s proprietary algorithms.

The market should have closed near the lows of the day (LOD); but due to men with burlap masks, stocks rebounded and melted higher into the bell. This is exactly the sort of tape that keeps me light and heavy in [[TLT]] aka “The Safety Trade.”

I expect to be back in the market, offering “death-blows” to the skulls of short sellers, by March. All of the “stuff” that keeps me sidelined are hypothetical and, thus far,  have not materialized. However, as always, I will keep my eyes peeled for such events and try to avoid the pitfalls of letting my cautiousness morph into some sort of weird bearshitter disease, whereby my brain distorts everything into a negative light.

This is not some credit related sell-off. As of now, emerging markets, corporate, local municipalities and even California are unscathed. Should you begin to see credit clam up again, run for your fucking lives.

Place all of these close end funds on your little/bullshit monitors:

[[JNK]]

[[EMB]]

[[LQD]]

[[PCK]]

Eaton Vance Insured Municipal Bond [[EIM]]

Let this be a lesson to you clam-fuckers: never fuck with “The Fly”. I speed in space rockets, while you’re in bed, cuddling with bitch-ass stuffed animals. My level of awareness is much greater than yours, thanks to the terrible burden placed on me: I can’t help but to bank tremendous coin in the market. I see what no one else can and hear what you do not want to, mainly because you are tone deaf and you need to listen ever so quietly to hear my music.

This is NOT the beginning of a precipitous decline. Instead, this dip can and will be bought, eventually. For the moment, I am being a pussy, bogged down in [[TLT]] —currently a 12% position. I intend to hold it—at a minimum—through its next scheduled dividend payment (3/1). If the market rebounds off these lows, I shall and will buy some [[VXX]] .

Just know and understand: “The Fly” is well aware of his actions and how a small minded person, such as yourself, might have difficulty in discerning the difference between shit and chocolate pudding. I never ask that you “follow me” into anything. I do this blog thing for sport, in order to vanquish and utterly destroy all other financial bloggers. So you know, I AM ACCEPTING RESIGNATIONS, from whomever can’t handle the day to day stress and anguish (the fucking drama) of calling the shots on these here internets.

Top picks: [[TLT]] , [[VXX]]

Why yes, as I matter of fact I do.

skip to 1:00

He was just off by a year and change.

Carry on.

We are enjoying an oversold bounce. But, in my estimation, there is more downside, in the near term, than up. Overall credit conditions are still good, as evidenced by [[LQD]] and [[JNK]] . However, trading stocks is more of a crystal ball activity, not reading the latest headlines—if you know what I mean.

If you are still heavily long, please, on Salomon’s eyes, raise cash.

Separately, the refiners are looking attractive again, heading into driving season. In that space, Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] and Holly Corporation [[HOC]] are your best horses.

As for me, well, I will simply pass the time, kicking back in my southern hillbilly made rocking chair, reading newspapers, while sipping ever so gingerly on a nice cool glass of lemonade—not too sweet ya hear. My next move will be to go long [[VXX]] , as I further entwine myself in the business of betting on lower stock prices. One step at a time, young man. One motherfucking step—little leech.