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The bears are running up commodity prices, in order to “box in” Bernanke, with his liberal rate cutting ways. That’s my latest conspiracy theory.
Look, the bear case is still alive and well. After all, the recession will be spear headed by the weak/beaten consumer, not the banks. The prospect of insolvency just scares people. But, even if they’re solvent, that doesn’t mean the market and the economy will recover.
Not at all.
The Fed is sacrificing the consumer on the alter of lower rates, in order to save a few bad banks.
Before the next leg down, I believe the bulls will give it the ol’ college try for a breakout. However, like past attempts, they will fail and eventually get rolled on by an army of 10 million seething bears.
The amateur trade is to heavily sell short here. It’s a classic trap.
After huge up days, there is always a trickle effect, as idle cash rushes back into the market and over zealous short sellers try to get flat.
Once again, wait for the market to move higher again, before re-initiating some obscene short positions.
On the top of my list is [[SMN]], [[FXP]], [[SKF]], [[SRS]] and short [[POT]], [[FED]].Comments »
I get the sense that the market is going to melt all the way up to 12,500. Shorting here may seem like a good idea. However, keep in mind, the great bearded one will appear next week, to slash rates some more. And, all of the brokerages are scheduled to post earnings.
Something tells me, no matter how bad the numbers are, the market may spike.
So, the game plan is simple: relax, go play shuffle board. Let the idiots with low IQ’s run the market up to 12,500, then annihilate them with a barrage of sharply pointed short sales.
Also, in the meantime, get yourself a little gold. Playing gold to $1,000 an ounce is the easiest trade in the world.
Finally, it’s no surprise to me, seeing the health care names get blown out with extreme vigor. From [[WLP]] to [[HUM]] to [[WCG]], they’re all scams.
A very close client of mine, who happens to be a Physician with a very large business, has been short the health care fuckers for more than a year. He always says “they’re all criminals.” I am starting to believe him. He also hates [[MHS]].Comments »
Keep your eye on the [[FXY]]. People with large accounts and big ego’s do not like Yen strength. With Yen/Dollar approaching $100, expect to hear talk of the “carry trade unraveling,” yet again.
Just know, Japan is entirely screwed by our wheel-barrow dollar, being a big exporter and all.
As of now, “The Fly” is NOT ready to come out of retirement. But, he is contemplating it.
I’ll have you know, “The Fly” has been working on clicking his mouse, while throwing “faux champagne bottles” at his trader/servant, in order to simulate his former trading environment.
Finally, from the luxury of the shuffle board court, “The Fly” thinks gold, via [[DGP]], and short dollars, via [[UDN]], makes sense here.Comments »
Thus far, being “retired” is quite boring. From time to time, I look at the markets and see all sorts of errors being made.
For example: investors are buying into yesterday’s up 400 Dow day. Ha, the folly you pedestrians make.
Seeing [[SRS]] and [[SKF]] drop down the garbage shaft almost makes me want to come out of retirement. Almost.
I see the retards from [[TMA]] caught an upgrade and have now been anointed the “Cadillac of Mortgage Companies,” once again. As you readily know by now, bank, brokerage or homebuilder bankruptcies are ILLEGAL in this country and will not be tolerated. Upon dealing with the worst housing market in 100 years (FNM CEO said that today), the Fed will pump liquidity into their wallets, in order to allow them to make the same mistakes—again.
Once again, in case you didn’t know, America’s new mantra is “survival of the fittest and all the weak guys too.”
If I weren’t retired, I might take an Atlantic City gamble on [[SMN]] and [[SRS]], down at these levels.
Tomorrow the Dow Jones will decline to the tune of 417 points.
Odd, no?Comments »
Clearly, Bernanke and Co. are not that.
“May the greasy gravy train from middle earth continue to slowly grind forward, using the remains of dead bears as its only source of energy.”
Fly, 2008Comments »
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqJfhmTxWvo&feature=related 450 300]Comments »
Interesting day. Believe me, I had to contain myself, like an over caffeinated jackal in a prairie full of bunnies, refusing to put cash to work.
Despite knowing the market would gap higher today, I made a conscious decision to not base my investment decisions on short term moves, anymore. Right now, I am holding more than 50% cash and will start legging back into positions, little by little.
With [[FXP]], [[SRS]], [[SMN]] and [[SKF]] getting “mushroom clouded” today, I refrained from buying. The reality of the situation is: the market may mud stomp the bears to the tune of another 500 points, from here.
So you may think you caught a deal with SKF today, but that fucker can drop another 30 points, no problem.
With my money, oddly enough, I did absolutely nothing. Should we gap up again tomorrow, I may buy more [[SMN]].
If you’re caught short, I strongly suggest buying an upside play to hedge, then proceed to drink heavily.Comments »
Watch another financial shoe drop after the bell, effectively poleaxing all the “do-gooders” who went long today.Comments »