Let this be a lesson to all of you out there.
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LOL – I wonder how Tim Knight is feeling today. 135% short this week
He really loses and gets NOTHING!
t.knight is in a west hollywood crisco lathered bear cave of destruction.
Incorrect Sir. According to TK’s blog he was in 20% cash, 60% shorts, 20% longs, and 0% margin. Never the less not a good day.
vega your info is not complete
20% cash
60% short S&P Emini
20% long FAZ
http://slopeofhope.com/2010/09/a-harrowing-session.html
See? Short 135% – written on his own blog.
Thanks Mushroomz for the backup.
Not that I really care, but reading his blog for the first time the other night had provided plenty of laughter.
fig
Too late!
sigh. have a great weekend bullish. enjoy reading your comments on the ppt side.
lol – thanks. Have a good weekend yourself
Fly,
Do you still keep ROP, CRUS?
Join me on a journey to darkest Palo Alto, where Sir Timmah keeps live drumsticks that the Colonel simply cannot do with out…
I eat your urban drumsticks!!!
I think I collected TK’s shorts. I am ready to rock.
Great Wonka clip!
SXSW Kicks Ass. Better book it soon.
That was fun. Lets do it again. I love these 1120 to 1020 to 1120 round trips. Everyone on this site must be up 250% this year.
The oil carry trade is on.
The contango on WTI crude has been widening, and is out to $6.47, on the Oct 2010/Oct 2011 contracts, as producers are bidding for storage. If I were an oil arb, I could buy the Oct contract at $74.35 (and take delivery in October) and sell the forward Oct 2011 contracts today for $82.26,. I’d make 10.6% on the one year carry, less the cost of borrowed money. Guaranteed money. But I’m not an oil arb, and I do want to make more than 10% on a trade.
The point is, with 1 month LIBOR at 26 bips, and even the one year rate at 84 bips, why would refiners not just buy oil and store it, instead of refining it at the current razor thin margins? Better to keep it in storage and sell the forward futures, no?
All this comes about as a reflection of the lower demand for refined products and a decline in oil prices back to below $70 again in the near future.
Enjoy your holiday weekend, gentlemen.
Da, good points.
I also vill be sellink more crude oil to make up for the loss of revenue from my ban on grain exporting, due to Comrade Al Gore’s global warming.
Das vi danyah!
You are smarter than me. Way smarter.
No, he just smoked less pot than you, is all. 😉
______
never touched it. honest.
Contact highs from the industry?
________
Even Trump (Last night on Letterman) said we were awash in oil floating around in tankers all over the globe … How long can the manipulators keep the price above $70 before the dominoes fall?
SCO if $70 fails to hold ….
Charlie in the end got the Chocolate Factory…Mr. Bond if your around, you say Sept 7 was the key day?
I nibbled on TZA into the last hour of trade.
Off to accompany the wife to “the mall experience”
UGHHH
lol…have fun…bet the stores will be empty side…which reminds me UK missed Retail Sales numbers last night …..lol, have a good weekend.
Come on up to THE GREAT NEW YORK STATE FAIR, where you can hang out with the majority of the country’s unemployed and PA recipients…
hey,thats good times 18 have fun…………chris
Get that woman a driver, you nut.
You’ve only so many years left… let none of them be in a mall.
________
My lord, you are always shopping. What are you buying? We got Wed/Sun at Whole Foods, what else are y’all buying? Shopping is suppose to be done online…….
It is likely the market chops around, with a slight positive uptrend, next few months.(as ive said for several weeks). The only safe thing to do is scalp, because there’s no reason to get excited on the short or long side.
But, commercial real estate will STILL fail to rebound. There’s too much competition from international superstores like costco, walmart, and bestbuy. The era of the mini mall, and full size mall, is dead. The fact that the china CRE bubble is done only adds to the fire. We could hit Dow 15k, and commercial real estate will still be plagued by bankruptcies and vacancies. It is a dead industry. This will impact copper, regardless of how high other sectors rise.
Anyone has data on what the market does when Rosh Hashana takes place in the same week or so close to labour day? I think next 2 weeks will be another low volume week until after Kippur and OPX.
Buy stocks at Rosh Hashana, sell by Yom Kippur.
sounds like a play on opex. will look into this month’s…
Stores are always jammed packed here. No recession in Cayenne country.
Let me clarify my position.
Im bearish on malls, but bullish on the “chick-fil-A” locations inside those malls.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhGo4Fk88uY#t=0m29s
Chick fil-a’s are literally a little slice of heaven.
Scenery-wise, I mean.
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Nymph… The stores are busy everywhere… Take your beargoggles off and look around.
Or, remain short and suffer the consequences.
Her glasses are made from indian iron ore and chinese copper, dumbass.
add a little moisture…rain/sweat..humidity…almost a ‘rosey red’…explains a little….now where’s my BEER GOGGLES?
if her glasses are made from said things…maybe she should look for a way to short those said things …maybe without getting hammered as bad …maybe DPK would serve her well…sir
Arch, should she start with a probe first???
arch I am short those things….and Fly is so right , those are my googles…oh and China Billet too….last week the spots got a pop over low cost housing in China Announcement….but that pop faded fast….no real demand from Mills….plus Monsoons are ending, so supply is only going to increase…India Court told Govt they can’t stop it….risk on had a good week… but watch the AUD/CHF…
ok..i will do that…but what do i do with the info ?? IF AUD IS DOWN ??? OR IF UP ??
AUD fed by China…or Aud feeds off China…they have one of the forward teats anyway..any down turns (less orders of rawMats) CHF<—the ever growing safe haven
and thats why The Nymph, keeps talking about raw materials so much…
You need shit, to make shit…first to rise and first to fall off
yep…that’s it………..
in an effort to try to understand what your saying i have sent my trader servant to the forex bad lands…correct me if i am wrong..
the AUD/CHF = the aussie dollar/ swiss franc spot ? or has my servant committed an error ?
if an error has not happened what does this have to do with china ?
Yep…AUD is the Aussie Dollar also called the Oz….and Swiss Fran called the Swissy…..For Foreign Exchange of f/x, it’s best to think of it like a Soap Opera or Jersey Shore…..you have your main chracters that play off one another with their own personalities……..You have already met 2, the Wild OZ and the Conservative Golden Swissy, sort of gay guy in the group. You also have the New Zealand Dollar who is known as Kiwi , he is Best Friends to Oz. Then You have Loonie, the Canadian dollar that is the American version of Oz and Kiwi. Then you have us the USD we are one of the Stars…everyone watches our love affair with Euro…who is a cat scratching bitch and always goes behinds our back…along with her BBF Sterling, the British Pound….when USD and Sterling hook up they are called the Cable….then you have Mr. Yen, he is a thinking man…safe, cautious but sort of like Ted Knight ala slope…nuff said……once you get these characters down you can meet the rest of the cast.
China Currency , Yuan, is one mother fucker, the twin brother of USD but he is breaking away….all of these effect him….and in turn global equities.
Fizzy lifting drink will do that every time
Fly, you might have gotten me hooked on the Tim Knight blog… I can’t help but continue to read it. This guy is too funny!
He’s on the verge of complete meltdown. I think you should offer him a PPT sub.
It’s always like that. It will rot your brain. Also if you try to comment and disagree, YOU WILL BE BANNED! (Just ask our resident permabull Dr. JakeG).
I am not a perma bull. I was a bear when it was smart to be one, and profited from it.
Timmah is a head case, and should not trade, for his children’s sake.
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I must say. There is really not much investment talk here. Just talking about Tim Knight. I am going to check his blog. It must be good, for everyone here to be talking about it .
It is a great contrarian trade blog. Find out his positions (which he doesn’t divulge) and do a Costanza trade on them. You will be rich before you know it.
Sorry Jake. I actually wrote that? I musta been under the influence of too much coffee or something. I certainly do not think of you as a perma bull, but currently bullish. Mea culpa.
maybe@ dow 10800
Nymph
You are a psychopath.
Psychopathy ( /sa??k?p??i/[1][2]) term used for a personality disorder characterized by an abnormal lack of empathy combined with strongly amoral conduct but masked by an ability to appear outwardly normal……………sort of discribes many that are drawn to this game.
Let me speak frankly, everything on this site should be offered free of charge.
“““`
i concur
the reasoning behind your assertion?
You don’t think the Fly is banking off ads served, do you?
i see i am wrong ..and you are right …i withdraw my concurrence
have a nice weekend gentlemen, ladies, ..in case your not around over the next few days
arch, Where am I going?
r u kiddin me!? its labor day! There are pic-a-nics everywhere….you have much work to do!
up,if that helps
i went to all cash on thursday knowing i wouldnt be around today ,and employment #s coming out..but as the morning moved along curiosity got the best of me and i had to know what was going on..not being nosey just wanted to be in the loop..got back here a little after 10 am saw there was good news and reentered FAS @ 21.27..had limited funds available but bought 1/5 position … and had to leave right away..looking now i see i bought it in between 2 minor support lines on my chart…but whats really nice right now at the close of after hours FAS is sitting right on a major support line@ 21.63…but even nicer at that point looking at my chart 21.63 is a launching pad..if you check your 1 year chart around feb 8th -feb 16th before options exp. that is the launching pad ,after that …lift off.. just thought you might want to know..cause we are there
High IQ
Ironically, you are an idiot.
Mr. Le Fly,
I am always willing to pay a fair price for goods and services, reflecting their true value and utility. As such, I willing to pay the tidy sum of $0.00/month for the services offered by your website.
Warm regards,
Hi IQ
you might as well close down Scott’s offer – the link doesn’t work anyway
Good day to you sur!
You are banned for excesive low iq pretending a high one.
What I dont understand is 2 weeks ago we were in a bearish market. We get a few days with positive data, the market turns bullish. The view point of the market seems to be short sided with the it’s narrow trading ranges. i assume. What is one major indicator that will let us know to get long, because we are in a real recovery. i assume jobs.
Carsony
It’s a range bound bear market right now. It does stuff like this just to mess with people. Like someone said earlier, the only way to make money is to trade the swing. This is the sole reason the Goldman C3PO bots exist. They want those bots. They need those bots. We use words like duty, honor, code. Goldman uses those words as a punchline.
….A Few Good Men…..i got it
ROFL
This afternoon I schlepped my husband to “South Coast Plaza” , Orange County, California’s equivalent of Rodeo Drive, a shopaholic’s dream come true. There are a myriad of stores for every taste and budget here….from Louis Vuitton to Sears, and everything in between. The smorgasbord of shopping delights will capture anyone’s attention for at least 3-5 hours if you’re a girl on a mission, and maybe an hour if you’re a guy. 😉
It was packed with people on this warm, 85 degree summer afternoon! And yes, people were carrying lots and lots of bags! We are in the deepest recession/depression, budget crisis here in California since 1983! Go figure!!
This afternoon I schlepped my husband to “South Coast Plaza,” Orange County, California’s equivalent of Rodeo Drive, a shopaholic’s dream come true. There are a myriad of stores for every taste and budget here….from Louis Vuitton to Sears, and everything in between. The smorgasbord of shopping delights will capture anyone’s attention for at least 3-5 hours if you’re a girl on a mission, and maybe an hour if you’re a guy. 😉
It was packed with people on this warm, 85 degree summer afternoon! And yes, people were carrying lots and lots of bags! We are in the deepest recession/depression, budget crisis here in California since 1983! Go figure!!
shirley, you live in California, remember? People do irrational, nonsensical things there, like buy health insurance for their pets, and drink bottled water. They were probably carrying bags just to look trendy and prosperous, while subsisting on unemployment checks and the McDonald’s drive up.
In-n-Out in the house!!
alphadawgg, yes, i always remember that i live in california and how fortunate i am here in laguna beach! i’ve lived here forever, except for regular working trips abroad. i do not think people do any more “nonsensical things” here than anywhere else. “looking trendy and properous” is a human condition–you find it here, in the usa and all over the world. the malls were empty, really empty of people and bags all last year and much into this year.
Shirley, If you make bank your shopping pattern does not change much because you only make 1 million instead of 1.2 million. Do you think Donald Trumph stopped spending? Also keep in mind that 50% of all employees in California works for the government with big salaries and fat pensions. They can still shop at the SC plaza to they die.
On the other hand people who live from pay check to pay check in the private industry cant afford to loose a penny. They are the ones hurting and they never shopped at the SC in ther first place. If you see them in the mall its because they are window shopping or buying a $10 t-shirt on sale.
Retail is hurting and all the little empty shops you see in the strip mails will probably not open again anytime soon. Over 100000 business closed in the state of California last year.
vegastrader, yes, i know california is france.
the shoppers are in their 20s. i know you’ll tell me they’re in their 50s with lots of botox, but, i repeat, they are in their 20s!
5 shops on a corner, instead of 4, well, clearly 4 to close, no?
There in their twenties living off of mommy/daddy. Don’t be so stupid. You can’t take one small area that is consumed with wealth and compare it to the rest of the United States. Do some research…
hit-me-up, the entire usa is consumed with wealth. as i am not a sociologist by training, it’s is impossible for me to take one small area and compare it to the rest of the usa.
stats states that orange county is largely latinos and asians/ americans. research suggests they do not live off of their mommies and daddies.
I was there last year, and all the high end places were empty!
South Coast Plaza like SC is all faux. Laguna is faux . Only the fires are real.And the sewage in the water.
Mr. The Fly,
I think you have a potential customer in one Mr. Tim Knight. Lifted from his most recent post:
Whenever I throw a question about indicators like this out there, it seems the answer is really, really complex. I’m a simple soul, and like I say, I’m just after one simple number. I would pay tens of thousands of dollars per year to the provider of such a number, if I knew it was reliable.
This magical “indicator” he is looking for seems vaguely familiar.
If Tim only knew that he can become a gentleman for far less than tens of thousands of dollars.
I smell an arbitrage opportunity here…
I smell a bear.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulr4UmigS_w&feature=related
What I find so amusing….In 2008 Leisa and I would go back and forth at Rev Sharks site about the market…..lol, she really hated it when I would make light of it all calling them toys and using the words sexy to describe them, miss that…………anyway 2010…..she hangs out at Slope and is a featured blogger there…and me…..totally not a slopper….I can smell a fellow Junkie a mile away, and Knight is just not one….
Tim Knight has mentioned more than once on his blog that he is on the lazy side (paraphrased). That won’t cut it in this game.
Po…but even when we do our homework…Government action can come in and mess it all up. Like tonight, the China billet, Rebar Futures and Wire went wild with China closing 18 mills for a month and this http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-06/china-should-establish-state-mineral-reserve-system-group-official-says.html
This is gold. Especially the quotes about his Facebook page:
Another Space Alien Magician from the Dutch Island?
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Does that make him a seasoned suicide bomber?
Someone who blows up their account should be so lucky
Looks like the prez will propose SSDD. Fifty billion in asphalt, concrete, and aggregates anyone?
shut up, im trying to sleep