COLLAPSE AHEAD OF $NVDA EARNINGS MIGHT BE BOOLISH

Good day

I’ve been hedging my longs all morning and still sit with losses of 55bps, which is ok all things considered. The NASDAQ is hammered down by 250 and High Beta stocks are lower by 3.3%. What that means is, if you stepped into today trying to be a hero, you’re leaving bankrupt.

The market gives and takes. The trick is to take more than you give and try not to allow your egos to get in the way of your trading. I had been very eager to see market break higher, but we’ve been basing out after the initial V shape bump. Check it out.

This right here, right now, is a bad tape, expected for end of summer heading into September shenanigans. However, being down so much ahead of $NVDA earnings is interesting, since it seems the worst is being priced in and should they beat and guide up, we might have ourselves a fucking ripper tomorrow.

OR, the alternative course of action is they soil themselves and we truly collapse by 1000 NASDAQs tomorrow in a session crafted in hades itself. Your call.

With my money, I remain long $NVDA, no more than 3% of equity, and look forward to seeing some upside into this fucking tape. Meanwhile, I will try to limit my losses via some well timed hedges and use the skills given to me by God himself to outperform.

Some brief thoughts on $NVDA.

I am up nearly 1000% on the stock, which is held in my family trust accounts. I have no intention of selling any time soon. The narrative of AI isn’t mature, more about the 3rd or 4th inning, which gives $NVDA leg room to expand further. But make no mistake, this is $CSCO circa 2000. They are providing chips to a sundry of young companies financed by them. In other words, their customers are paying for their chips with their money.

What.could.go.wrong?

Having said that, I don’t view tomorrow’s earnings report as central to the narrative and they should beat expectations, which very well might lead to a ripper of a rally from now until the elections.

Mag 7 stocks are higher by 0.3%, whilst a list of 100 high beta stocks are lower by 1.2%. Cryptos miners and meme stocks are heavily sold with losses ranging from down 2 to down 4%, while secular low beta stocks are up 0.2%.

For whatever reason, aluminum, autos, semis, REITs and insurance stocks are up, while gene editing, trucking, cannabis and solar stocks are hammered.

I, on the other hand, am in possession of gains, of the mediocre varietal, +52bps in slow yet methodical trade. People often ask me what my core thesis or brand is and it is this: I never blow up or fold during hard tapes. I persevere and achieve wanton success, especially during times when you’re all bedraggled and lost in the sea of shit. This is my speciality, to navigate the storms you can’t even see in front of you, let alone the one’s looming.

I expect little change from now till the end of day, as we all eagerly wait for $NVDA earnings tomorrow.

None of what you see today is real, per se. Sure there is a minor resurgence in commodity based stocks, but other than that we’re all just sitting around and waiting for $NVDA to drop the BOOM or DOOM. Odds are it’ll be a boom. My suspicion lies in the lack of insider trading taking place in the options market, suggestive that the report will be good or as expected. The report is due out on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s tape was pretty dreadful and it looked like we were getting another one pre market. As soon as stocks opened I peered at one of my tells, The SAAS sector, and it was barely down, which encouraged me to close out my $SQQQ and $UVIX. In regards to $UVIX, it should almost always be closed out before 10am if holding for an overnight hedge. The purpose of hedges is to avoid losses of the largess varietal and once closing them out to permit your stocks to increase in value. Timing is everything and although we are heading up now, that doesn’t mean we won’t crescendo lower this afternoon in one of this GIANT fuck you red candles from hell.

I really gave it the olde college try today, leveraging up with longs unafraid and unabashed, attempting to get my share. But it didn’t work out. If it did work out, I’d be talking extreme shit on here right now. The way I see it, I gained 1.58% on Friday and lost 0.49% today, so now my job is to not lose anymore. The only way to ensure that is through hedges, so I took some $SQQQ and $UVIX into tomorrow. In addition to that, I tossed on some old man stocks into the mix: $KMB, $KO and $CLX. We had very strong action in secular stocks today and should tech trade down again tomorrow, we will most likely continue this trend.

To bring you up to speed with my reentry into the wonderful world of money management, I was going to join a firm because I needed support, having hundreds of people interested in my services. But after speaking to this animals, I was reminded as to why I hated them in the first place: they’re all loser, fee collecting know nothings who delegate expertise and live vacuous and stupid lives. They are beneath me and if I cannot learn from them, I want nothing to do with them.

Ergo, I will establish my own RIA. This might take more time, perhaps 3 to 4 months; but it will be on my terms. I started the process today, so I am guessing by December I will be up and running. Only during this time will I talk to prospective clients, since once I lock in I am going to be fixed on markets and management.

Ciao

Markets are weak, focused in tech. But there is strength in oils and materials and much of the 2022 trade when World War 3 was thought to be a foregone conclusion. Two years hence and we yawn at Ukrainian drones partaking in 9/11 terror attacks into Russian hi rise buildings. Amidst the tumult, there is a worsening in relations between the East and the West, but to be cautious about war is also synonymous with being ‘fooled’ because Russia hasn’t attacked Warsaw with nuclear devices.

It’s all very mundane stuff but one thing we can depend on is our leadership tossing its people into the fires for profit. They exchange Joe Iowa for dollars and they’ll continue to foist Joe Iowa at Ivan or Chen until they run out of Joe’s and that’s just the way it is, the way it has always been.

Investing in this backdrop is deleterious and at times frightful and you must be either brave or really stupid to have faith that it all works out and none of the pieces fall out, leading to COLLAPSE. We’ve had so many of them in recent decades, too many to count, and almost every single trader I know is not only waiting for the next one, but expecting it.

Today we have stocks like $APA, $FANG, $XOM, $CLF, $NUE sharply higher, all of the plays that worked early 2022. That is the war trade: oil, materials, logistics, defense, and sharply lower tech stocks.

Coming off a really nice Friday you’d want either a stable open today or a minor pullback. See the NASDAQ down 200 sucks; but let me remind you that the $IWM is up and most stocks are still up. Either way, this is not exactly constructive pin action; but it does have some redeeming qualities.

We have a sharply higher commodity sector and financials are solid. The weakness is focused in the semis and retail. The move in the $SMH especially sucks because all of the gains achieved on Friday have been erased. But at $242, we are well off the lows of $211 spotted two weeks ago. In other words, don’t jump out of your windows just yet; there might be hope shimmering in the not too distant future.

Speaking of which, September is typically the WORST month for stocks and you might be thinking ‘maybe not this year Fly’ and perhaps that’s true. But the NASDAQ is UP for August and the performance for September, in recent years, has been nothing short of catastrophe.

Junior at the trading turret is going to be kicked off the desk soon and in his place a coked up PM without an iota of decorum and feel for the tape. He is going to sell this market the fuck lower and panic at the first sight of weakness.

Even still, short term I am constructively bullish and will give this tape the benefit of the doubt, since it’s the least I can do. I don’t want to be to hurried or rash and prefer to see how things develop today before setting assumptions.

Reminder #1 billion. We will always V shape bottom; the only question is when.

Now with markets back on its bullward path I think it appropriate to review several items.

That’s a fucking V shape

During the squall, because I’m a lunatic, I created a list dubbed THE RUINS OF 2024. The reason why I build lists is to remind me what works during squalls or exogenous events, such as riots, hurricanes, war, tragedies etc. It’s a diary of sorts and I harken back to these lists all the time to give me a blueprint for the current environment. Now I have been building RUINS lists for every year since I’ve been trading with you fuckers online and every single time the market V shapes up, the stocks that were most down are always the one’s to go back up the most.

Now I know what you catamites are thinking and I would too, providing I was as stupid as you. “Hey Fly, how would I know when to buy?” JFC. I built an entire system FOR YOU to figure this stuff out. Use the toolz; banks ze money.

OS signals in Stocklabs printed a one two punch on the exact days of the recent bottom, with the $QQQ +10.5% since then

Good day.

First I’d like to tell you that I got your emails and will get back to you about managing your piker accounts when I can. Understand something, I’ve been barraged with hundreds of emails from people rich and poor all clamoring for the honor of having me run their money. I am just one man and not an octopus; therefore, and this goes without saying, you’ll need to relax.

I decided on starting my own RIA, as opposed to working for someone else. At first I was open to the idea of working at a firm but the more I thought about it the more I hated the idea. I want to do what I want and when I want to do it and there isn’t anyone alive who can stop me.

Speaking of which, Sirs, do you intend to step in front of the market locomotive? Have you seen the pageantry and all of the market excesses today? Do not be tricked or fooled, young man, this fucking market is going higher with or without you. I have no doubt about it and will place my entire life on the line to prove it.

I closed out the session with solid gains of +158bps. My quant has been on fire lately and was +257bps. I am heavily long and ready to be bourbon’d, appreciative of my people and those adorning me with fancy emails compelling me to “please take my money.”

I will Sir, in good time.

To make further inquiries email me flybroker@gmail. My minimum is whatever your maximum is.

Good day.

All of the important people have convened at Jackson Hole to discuss policy concerns, the things that shape your lives in ways you don’t truly understand.

Want a new home? They’ll decide what you will pay at Jackson Hole.

How about that new car? Jackson Hole.

You and your fiancé want to get married this fall? All Jackson Hole will decide on the costs.

The velocity of money is about to go up. The presumption of the bears is that ‘it doesn’t matter’ because ‘we have too much debt.’ I used to believe in all of that but bur living in the real world and not some fucking fantasy has taught me not to touch the Fed’s kettle when it’s hot. I’ve got the burns to show for my mistakes.

In a sense, the Fed has eliminated the economic cycle. Gone are the days of boom bust boom. Now we just plod along higher with a stable unemployment rate, GDP buoyed by an ever increasing population. The correlation between population increase and GDP is almost 1.00.

But what about how shitty stocks have been recently?

In the short term there are plenty of things that can go wrong. As a trade we remain vigilant and will short this fucking tape into the ground if we must. But in the intermediate term into the Fed cuts, there isn’t a good bear case to be made, lest we are now discussing the specter of WW3, which on the surface might seem scary and foreboding; but ultimately that too is super bullish, lending to all sort of new money creation and industry.

I don’t make the rules; I just follow them.