WE HAVE A EURO DEAL!

Okay, news is coming fast, but it appears the EFSF deal has been reached. As expected, it will be 1.4 trilly, by using 400-500% leverage on cash. Haircuts on Greek debt will be 50% and that does NOT include ECB holdings. In other words, they are openly committing accounting fraud. The fund must be set up by next month and Italy swears on a stack of King James bibles they will get their shit together. Lastly, like TARP, Euro banks will be funded with 30 billion for recapitalization. No word on how many banks and which banks need the funding. My guess they reside in Germany and France.

What does this mean?

Well, it means gold and silver will soar. On this repeated news, stocks should not go higher. However, they’re going higher anyway. People want a reason to go long and this puts visions of QE3 in the minds of people. Ultimately, the debasement of the money supply will lead to artificial inflation, readily seen in oil, copper, gold, silver etc.

Under normal circumstances, we should sell off on this news. You know, buy the rumor, sell the news sort of thing. But it’s too early to judge, especially with futures up 14.

Either way, I will be getting my JAKEGINT on tomorrow via additional purchases of EXK and AG.

Vagrancy. That’s the word best used to describe the west today. Forget about the lies of American “exceptionalism.” The old whigs in Europe have managed to denigrate their finances to the point of asking for handouts from the Chinese. All western nations are fat, bloated pigs, suffocated by corrupt bureaucracies.

Since when is everyone entitled to a nice comfortable life?

We all have opinions and derive said beliefs into market positions in order to profit. I take nothing away from those of you who want the charade to continue for the benefit of your portfolios. I am made from the same cloth. However, investments aside, this is devastatingly tragic, seeing once proud nations diminished to nothing more than 1st class subways beggars.

The Chinese will gladly keep the music playing, in order to further fleece the west. Our western leaders have presided over the greatest transfer of wealth, from west to east, in the history of mankind. The only somewhat responsible party, Germany, is being choked into submission, to further denigrate their populace for the benefit of degenerate oyster shuckers in Greece. After this EFSF business is complete, artificial, self induced inflation may return, further expediting the transfer of wealth, from us to the oil barrons in the middle east.

Our leaders say we need “green energy” in order to keep the charade going. If they were serious about helping Americans, they’d permit oil exploration on an unprecedented scale. Instead, they give tax breaks for fucking solar panels that no one can afford. What’s next, windmills on cars?

I’m past the stage of buying into schemes. Therefore, I am protesting this rally through inaction.

The biggest standout for October, with regards to seasonality, was FFIV. I bought and sold the stock in September, but never played in October, regrettably. Like many of you, I am skeptical of seasonality and use it as a form of entertainment, instead of something tangible.

With today’s move in FFIV, it is within 1% of its historical average gain in October, a staggering +26%. Other top names for October that have done well include MSTR, HS, RNOW, SYNA, DGII, just to name a few.

What’s in store for November? A comprehensive seasonality toolset is available via The PPT and I will be posting a few screens worth member perusal soon. There are many ways to look at the data, stemming from average % gains to average win rate. A few that stand out are RMBS, CCOI, EXK, FSM, CCBG (flawless), MTD (flawless) and UPS. The overall prevailing theme is gold and silver. Aside from individual seasonality data, we provide information for over 200 sectors.

During the month of November, silver stocks had an average win rate of 60% for an average return of +6.35%. For the month of October, the average loss for silver stocks was 7.21%, by far the worst month of the year for silver.

All in all, over the past 17 years, the S&P has been up in the month of November 70% of the time, for an average return of 1.75%. Knowing this information, it’s important to position into the right sectors to take full advantage of a possible run. That entails buying into sectors that do well during November, in addition to all of the other things you may do to pick stocks. For example, a wide array of solar stocks do poorly in November. This is definitely something you want to know ahead of initiating a long position.

As an aside, be careful about bottom fishing in these high multiple momo stocks getting smashed. Names like HANS, AMZN, NFLX and GMCR may be tempting. However, more often than not, pikers like you get blown out in these names, due to lack of liquidity.

Avoid.

Let’s be realistic here. Germany represents just 27% of the EU GDP. Moreover, Italy and Spain represents a combined 29% of EU GDP. So, please tell me, how in the world do you expect the Germans to bail them out? Mathematically, it is impossible.

The only way out, sadly enough, is to print euros and legalize accounting fraud, just like we did in America. Here in America, our banks are allowed to lie about their balance sheets and our Fed are serial money printers, of the worst kind. Eventually, the chickens will come home to roost. This is bullshit, all of it.

The only thing I intend on buying is EXK, but not now. I am hoping for lower prices, in order to position myself for a November surge.

Just know this, whatever deal concocted out of Europe will be fallacious. Anything short of default is legalized accounting fraud.  They are asking for a “voluntary” 50% haircut from Greek bond holders in order to prevent CDS from triggering. Tell me, how the fuck is that possible?

artwork done by a certain Henry Fool 

Okay, in all seriousness, I had to literally torture and threaten to commit heinous acts of arson in order to get this done for you guys. The IT department at iBC is dedicated towards refining trading algorithms– this side of retail has never seen before, for absurdly affordable prices. If you consider that for a moment, then consider how expensive it is to hire IT talent these days, you know that “Dr. Fly” is a regular FOXCONN slave-camp Overlord.

Having said that, we’ve been working on this project for months and it is a great addition  to the site, a gift from me to you.

What the fuck is it, you ask?

It is your own blog, jackass. Honestly, I felt bad for you Peanut Gallery contributors. You were like orphans sleeping on a cardboard box on top of a lukewarm radiator.

Let’s get down to business.

SIGN UP HERE.

This is what you get:

Your own blog.
Free hosting.
Free IT support.
Exposure to iBankCoin’s 1.5 million page views.
All blogs will auto-tweet on iBankCoin’s corporate Twitter account that has over 18,700 followers, in addition to the iBC Blogger Network account.
Last but not least, you get to blog alongside the BlogFather aka “The Fly” aka “The Baddest Fucking Blogger in the Western Hemisphere” (the Eastern Hemisphere isn’t worth shit).

Without a doubt, this is going to be a huge success for iBankCoin and the financial blogosphere as a whole. Moreover, if you have a blog elsewhere and desperately seek readers, feel free to share your content here and link back to your blog. “The Fly” is benevolent that way.

In summary, consider every blog coming out of The iBC Blogger Network a punch in the face to the degenerates over at Seeking Alpha and other untoward internet sites.

NOTE: Readers will be able to sort by page views, comments, stars, tweets etc. In other words, the cream will rise to the top, whilst the miscreants get laser beamed to the fucking face. Also, once per month, similar to the KOPG title, the executive committee for proper blogging at iBC will honor one of you with a “Featured Blogger of the Month” title, which will come with isolated front page exposure on iBC (this is an excessively great honor).

BEHOLD: The iBC Blogger Network

To a default party, featuring “the original butt-fuckers” Greece, with guest stars “The Idiots from Italy”, “The Pricks from Portugal” and the “Seahorses from Spain.” This party will be hosted by “The Fucking French” and “Gregarious Grenading Germans.”

If you care to attend this party, please buy Greek, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese 10 yr bonds.

Refreshments will be provided by those dogs, the Americans.

The “Hail Mary” pass that has been tossed over three weeks ago, for the benefit of hedge funds, might end up getting intercepted by FUCKTARDED earnings shortfalls. Let’s face it, this whole rally was concocted for the benefit of asset managers and pension funds deep in the red. The reality is, the news isn’t good.

AMZN just missed by 100 yards and NFLX is dead and buried. Coupled that with an AAPL, CMI and MMM miss, alongside the GMCR-FSLR debacles, one could make the case momentum is in danger of slowing, and fast.

The PPT flagged OB yesterday, after coming within .01 of OVERSOLD on 10/17. I will not tell you the current score, out of respect for members. However, I will say, betting against The PPT is not a high probability trade.

My timing to take 40% profits on WNR was sublime and my average down on VXX this morning was near perfect. Mind you, I am in the drivers seat again, up over 1.5% for the day, putting my year to date gains near 17%.

If the EZ bails out everyone, gold goes up. If they don’t and panic ensues, gold goes up. Let me be frank, I do not like gold bugs. As a point in fact, they irritate me. Nevertheless, during the month of November, gold and silver outperform. There are certain seasonality trends that are worth paying attention to, such as long FFIV in October.

I warned you to avoid gold and silver during the month of October, due to binding magic that forces those stocks to trade lower in October. But the hex is lifted in November and it is time to revisit the parlour in which JAKEGINT drinks himself to sleep every night, through the explicit purchase of gold and silver.

Already, I’ve deployed 10% of my assets to EXK. I intend to buy or consider buying AG and EGO.

As for EXK, it’s been up in 4 of the past 5 Novembers for an average return of 23.65%. The GDX has been up 4 of the past 5 years for an average return of 10.7%.

Look, I’m having a hard time getting long or short. I am long TLT, VXX, TZA, GSVC, EXK, WNR (sold 75% of my position yesterday) and short EXH. I am studying a number of interesting food and beverage names, hoping to buy them on dips. But gold and silver is unique, in that it is favored by both longs and shorts.

In my estimation, gold and silver stocks are the only longs worth pursuing, at this point in time.

Consumer confidence numbers were so bad (39), it’s almost comedic. People in this country would rather punch one another in the face than buy another pair of jeans. Coupled with the fact that things are starting to look dicey again in Europe, there are numerous reasons to sell stocks. Keep in mind, CMI and MMM missed, as well as AKS. Letter X had bullshit numbers; but people with goat brains are buying stocks, nevertheless.

You do understand that buying here means you are Eddy Barzoon, don’t you? The people who are telling you to buy now, after a 16% rally, are idiots. Plain and simple, Cramer doesn’t manage money for a living anymore and is out of touch with reality. Might I suggest he bulk up on some psychotropics?

It’s very possible the Europeans concoct some plan that looks good on the surface. However, you cannot insure your way out of insurmountable debt. You either default or print money. Having said that, the news should be sold, several times over.

Gold is sprinting and refiners are getting crushed. The problem with the refiners here is collapsing 321 crack spreads. This is occurring due to run away speculation in WTI, which, incidentally, is compressing the spread between Brent and WTI as well. This is a lose lose for WNR. However, the moves that pissed you off last quarter with WNR may end up saving them. I am talking about their aggressive hedging strategies that stunted profits. With 35%+ of production hedged at $27, WNR is in a great position to unwind those hedges, smartly, into weakness.

321 cracks are down 15% today to $22.5.

Finally, what more can I add to the NFLX story? This is an unbelievable collapse. I am sure there will be a trading opportunity. But the downward momentum in both the stock price and business is too fast. It’s best to spectate, while poking fun at the trials and tribulations of a certain REED HASTINGS.

UPDATE: I bought EXK to get my silver on.

Typically, I ignore Cramer’s nonsensical rants. Not today.

Let’s not even mention his long term love for NFLX, even at $300. On the CMI earnings miss, Cramer told viewers of CNBC to “buy the stock down 9” and how the CEO is just “so self deprecating.” Cramer envisioned the CEO whipping himself during the conference call. Later on, Cramer had the balls to say CMI “would not have warned if the stock was trading at $78.” WTF?! He furthered, because the company’s stock price was in the 90’s, they had room to warn.

With regards to MMM, Cramer called them “serial underperformers” and how they were simply “outliers.”

To summarize: macro-trends do not exist for stocks. When they report good news it’s because they things are terrific. When they report bad news it’s because the CEO sucks and/or they are just trying to beat next quarters estimates.

Bob Pisani called Cramer out saying “MMM is not an outlier,” pointing to weak sales amongst a variety of industries.

Ho-hum