I always err on the side of high probability trades. In many respects, investing is simply a game of percentages. There are seasonal factors that can tilt the odds in your favor, if studied correctly. At times, outlier events can throw your high probability trade into a furious tornado, commingled with cows, cars and dumb southerners. Case in point: my decision to get defensive in mid-October, following an 8% run. Little did I know, we were only getting started.
But that’s life and most certainly the market.
Entering November, we have a whole new set of high probability trades. For example, the odds of a positive month, following a gangbuster October, are very high. At the very minimum, you should not be aggressive with shorts here. But the story of November is more complex than other months, all to do L-tryptophan.
THE TURKEY GODS DESCEND UPON YOU and will punch your mustaches off–should you defy their will.
Americans are a great fat and lazy society, a gluttonous people. We like nothing more than to steal land from Native Americans, then have gaudy feasts to celebrate our felonious ways. Once per year, we stuff our faces with meat, potatoes, cranberry sauce and lots of gravy, in an effort to “thank” someone for shit we have no clue about. Thanksgiving is a nonsensical holiday, when grocery stores pillage the checking accounts of the working class, poisoning their bloodstreams with chemical laden meats and vegetables.
Having said that, as a people, we are far too busy focusing on food than to worry about stocks. In addition to food, X-mas is right around the corner. How “awesome and amazing” is that?
You don’t bet against stocks going into Thanksgiving. Period.
There is a time and place for almost anything, sans shit filled protests by vagrants at Wall Street. If you want to bet against America, do it after New Year’s, when we’re too drunk/hungover to realize we’re fucked.
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