I always err on the side of high probability trades. In many respects, investing is simply a game of percentages. There are seasonal factors that can tilt the odds in your favor, if studied correctly. At times, outlier events can throw your high probability trade into a furious tornado, commingled with cows, cars and dumb southerners. Case in point: my decision to get defensive in mid-October, following an 8% run. Little did I know, we were only getting started.
But that’s life and most certainly the market.
Entering November, we have a whole new set of high probability trades. For example, the odds of a positive month, following a gangbuster October, are very high. At the very minimum, you should not be aggressive with shorts here. But the story of November is more complex than other months, all to do L-tryptophan.
THE TURKEY GODS DESCEND UPON YOU and will punch your mustaches off–should you defy their will.
Americans are a great fat and lazy society, a gluttonous people. We like nothing more than to steal land from Native Americans, then have gaudy feasts to celebrate our felonious ways. Once per year, we stuff our faces with meat, potatoes, cranberry sauce and lots of gravy, in an effort to “thank” someone for shit we have no clue about. Thanksgiving is a nonsensical holiday, when grocery stores pillage the checking accounts of the working class, poisoning their bloodstreams with chemical laden meats and vegetables.
Having said that, as a people, we are far too busy focusing on food than to worry about stocks. In addition to food, X-mas is right around the corner. How “awesome and amazing” is that?
You don’t bet against stocks going into Thanksgiving. Period.
There is a time and place for almost anything, sans shit filled protests by vagrants at Wall Street. If you want to bet against America, do it after New Year’s, when we’re too drunk/hungover to realize we’re fucked.
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gobble fig
Amen brother.
I think this year its looking more like a dont bet against the dolla….
Hmm…Italian yields blowing up this morning (all time high 6.35%)…margin could trigger soon.
Maybe why futures just tanked?
This article is not advice for today, but the entire month.
I don’t frequently comment on blogs, but the writing in this post was positively sublime. Well done.
thank you sir.
The economies of the whole world blowing the fuck up, but the hell with that! Time to gorge ourselves and bet the farm. Game on!
Fat people rule. They are strong.
GSVC had a good start, but sitting flattish. I’m hoping for a lunchtime martket run-up.
Ouch wrong
Extremely wrong!
LMLP earnings late next week…Stock should trade 2.65 to 2.85….just watch
I am betting against the Fly on this next market move. I think it is down. The weekly technicals are saying the larger trend is downward, which has more power than the daily trend, which is upward.
lol taco,he still beat ya to it. he saw the future,it has low stock prices in it. rof. mother fucker wins when you think he’ll looze. rof bro
I usually bet with the Fly, since my technical analysis-based trading generally follows his own system. This time I happen to be betting against. I am out of the market until the weekly and daily technicals match in their signals more closely. Right now they are at odds, causing much volatility. Volatility trades are good for now, IMO.
The Columbia Restaurant, near Orlando, is featuring “traditional Vermont roast turkey” on their T’day menu. My interrogatory is, what do you suppose the odds are that the “turkey” they serve was actually bred, born and raised in Vermont from native Vermont birds.? This reeks of a Corzine operation.
it’s all in the packaging. people believe anything.did that to the father in law some years ago,told him it was a butterball when it wasnt. dude didnt know the difference
I guess it’s a good thing I buy all of my meat and produce direct from organic farmers. No middleman or packaging of any kind. Keeps the prices much lower, too.
Maybe so but, did the father-in-law ever, at any time, refer to you as a prick?
Did your father-in-law tell you that his daughter used to be his son?
The Columbia is supposed to be a Cuban place.
The original in Ybor City section of Tampa is excellent. The one in Orlando (Celebration) is overpriced, although I haven’t been there in about 7 years.
The original also used to serve a lunch special consisting of a filet, plantains, a veg and iced tea for $5 when I was first out of school.
It was a crowd of mostly youngsters trying to keep our ties out of our food and old Cuban expats.
Good times.
Now a days some of the best Cuban places are still on Calle Oche in Miami.
Just need to stay away from the tourist spots and eat at the ones where the old Cubanos are playing dominoes and are all hyped up on Cafe Cubano and Chicharrones.
Chicharrones … also known as :
Pork Skins ?
Pork Rinds ?
Pork Cracklins ?
—
Love those things !
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We also have one next door to me at the shit hole Pier in St. Pete; 1905 salad all the way. You’ve never had veggies prepared so well (soaked in oil and covered in ham and cheese).
I prefer my Cuban sandwiches at the Publix in St.Pete Beach. I’ve been told they are very authentic and organic. Doesn’t matter, since it’s as close to Miami as I wish to get.
Florida, Publix, hurricanes.
Oh the memories.
Publix: the grocery marvel that has yet to infect the rest of the U.S. One day they’ll get it and ban the Krogers and Super Wal-Marts in every municipality.
Out west, we’ve got “Stater Bros.” and “Vons” (tho the latter is becoming a runt, soon to be dead).
In other news, if “WinCo” (Idaho based) keeps spreading, I’d buy that baby when she goes public (no dis’ to Publix).
WinCo’s a “Costco” for the un”memberized” of the world.
“Word”.
Also, I wonder what disorder causes writer’s to use excessive quotes? Any licensed “therapists” on this thread???
MSFT looks ugly even compared to the rest of the ugly going around today.
VERY UGLY
GRPN up 40% GSVC down 10%. WTF!
Looks like the smart money got out of GSVC early this morning, Fuckers!
Nope, got out yesterday afternoon.
FUCK THIS SHIT, ONCE WNR NOW GSVC FUCK IT
I’m a little concerned about the heavy PC content of the middle paragraphs of this post. You might want to check your water for some sort of Bloombergian chemical influence.
__________
For the reason(s) stated above.
I CONCUR.
Groupon trading is a huge disappointment, only CNBC won’t admit it since they pumped it so vigorously.
This is not the 90s, these Internet IPOs will not be good mo-mo stocks. Their valuations are too high coming out of the box. LNKD will be in the 50s soon, then 30s, then teens.
CNBC pumped it? I thought they were all kinds of ways negative, and had people on who were putting Groupon down.
Boo Ya ! GSVC down, NFLX down, RENN down – but The Fly is up 10% !
Precision of mathematical harmony.
Is the best way to play GRoupon to buy at 3:30, assumings it near the low of the day, and then cash out 3:55 when all the institutional investors pile in at 3:35 for hockey stick save?
This market’s movin like Bernie (as in wk end at bernies
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRBLmogRL4c
On a positive note, crack spreads are up 4.8%.
That’s good news for CVI and WNR.
If I were you, I’d take 10-30 % off the table, form some kind of limited liability corporation, and buy “middle ‘tur(n)key)'” houses and hire an underemployed who can manage the rental profits for you.
In five to ten years, I will accept your fine wine gifts as well.
Now. Most persons in the securities industry abhor such rabble, but a “man in full” (credit Tom Wolfe), should never be too fully invested in solely one penumbrae of proprietary advantage.
The usual warnings about loosing [sicKening] your economique shirt WHILST, en réalité, I enrich your life, as who knows, Stalin may be rebirthed and crush your financial wealth 0bama style (no Shitcago “Ramm” style).
You’re already on your forth beer at midday?
Yep, I know… A-game.
Beer spiked with mercury, you know, the usual.
But plutonium elixirs later, my glowing hair means I don’t need a night light.
BTW: as an FX and futures trader, the idea of clock-confines, well, they don’t bind me.
Have another cup. X [
Your mom was a “Radium Girl”, right?
I’ll have “NUN” of that!
!!!TOP SECRET!!!
p.s. I was born on a shooting star. Aliens are real, get your Alien jerky.
For the day I will bet with the ADX, but I will not leave that bet on for the evening (so the Turkey gods don’t eat my lunch at dinner time).
Bot some GSVC; sold some ILMN. This groupon deal is highly overrated as pertains to GSVC.
Todays leaders are FSLR and NFLX?
Looks like shorts are starting to cover on X.
AAPL goes with $400 … like Peanut Butter goes with Jelly !
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GSVC explained:
http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/groupon-ipo-to-test-nascent-private-stock-markets/883757.html
Looks like the comments logicalthought made yesterday were right.
ahem..
http://ibankcoin.com/rcblog/2011/11/02/top-pick-gsvc/#comment-56704
This year I bet against the Turkey gods. And as I said before when Fly is buying more stock, I sell it and buy $TZA.
I do not know how in fact it will play out eventually.
Time will tell.
With the price of iron ore going up they better.
Beeks is worse than Dennis Kneale.
… with all due respect, nobody is that bad !
I actually kinda like Brian Kelly ! fwiw
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