Fly Buy: PPC

I added to my PPC position.

I am officially “disenchanted” with stocks, especially after today’s bloodbath, courtesy of the good folks over at NFLX. I cannot believe I am in this stock large, into the teeth of a fucking calamity. I can only blame myself, as I had no good reason to be long other than to be a contrarian.

Sometimes the herd is right. In this case, I am a regular jackass.

PPC is also getting hit, following numbers out of SFD. However, the numbers were solid and investors are just being bitches about the whole thing. I am not concerned.

What’s important to note, as the indices slide to new intra-day lows, is strength in healthcare, alcohol and tobacco stocks. One cannot deny the possibility of grave and heinous danger when old man stocks start to catch a bid. Having said that, aside from my 35% cash position, MCK is my largest equity holding.

I like the look of silver and gold, especially NAK. Barring some news event that can fuck the stock, I like NAK the best as a barometer on Romney. Should Romney get elected, perhaps he will reign in the fucktards over at the EPA. If that happens, NAK may be permitted to mine in what is estimated to be one of the largest copper/gold mines in the world. On that news, NAK goes to $20.

It is a lotto ticket, nothing more or less.

My HDGE is trending higher again. I am not long the name to make a great deal of money, however. It’s more of a place to safely park cash, than an advantageous bet on declining stocks. Should I make 5-10% holding it, so be it.

In short, stocks look like shit. I feel like selling everything because I am an emotional roller coaster. During times like this, I force moderation by preoccupying myself with things to do. I might go read a book or create some new PPT screens. Or, I might just say “fuck it” and start selling some of my losers.

The big talk out of Jackson Hole is Woodford’s paper regarding Fed policy. Apparently, there is a movement to discard of the Fed tracking 2% inflation in exchange for tracking nominal GDP. In other words, POMO Gorillas highs on cocaine forever.

Forget inflation; focus on growth, by any means necessary.

My opinion is meaningless on the matter and I know far less about economics than a gentleman scholar like Woodford. Instead of debating whether this is a good idea or not, I’d rather focus on the potential outcomes for such a radical policy change at the Fed. It would usher in a new era of free money, buoy stocks to new highs, establishing a nouveau rich like you’ve never imagined– all the while tossing the poor and middle class families directly in front of the fenders of rapidly rising commodity and food prices.

Under a Federal Reserve policy that targets growth, one could not be foolish enough to risk shorting stocks anymore. That would be viewed as “old hat”, a relic of yesterday, left behind like the 8-track or kerosene lantern.

In other news, JPM just cut its target on FB from $45 to $30. How timely of them? I wonder if that analyst even cares that he sucks dick and no one respects his opinion? Does that even matter to him ?

Before passing judgement on today’s tape, I need to see how prices respond to Europe’s sell off. I’m not overly concerned over a potential sell off. Nevertheless, the winter is coming and stocks can’t go up forever. We’re overdue a good miniature panic, in order to properly introduce investors to the seasonal change from summer to fall, as is customary for this business for more than 100 years.

Europe was higher and Italian and Spanish yields got crushed, especially the 2 year. Commodities are robust, earnings are behind us and the Federal Reserve has our back. What can go wrong?

If it wasn’t for seasonality, I’d be balls to the wall bullish right now. What exactly do we have to fear, that hasn’t already been tossed on top of the dinner table like a dead lamb? With earnings in the rear view mirror, stock picking prowess will be the most important aspect of trading over the next few months.

For the uninitiated,  ChessNwine just published the most thorough and comprehensive market summary and outlook the world has ever seen today, provided for Weekly Strategy Session members, as well as 12631. To be a member of the 12631 trading club, you need to be a PPT member first, due to the intertwixting of both services. If you are a novice or a pro, I highly recommend investing your time and money into this service, as Chess and RC do a phenomenal job at maintaining and upkeeping a rich and vibrant trading room. It’s also worth noting, the members of The PPT and 12631 are seasoned and contribute a great deal to the daily idea flow.

As an aside, we are working diligently on PPT 2.0 and should be able to launch it this fall.

Starting November 1st, the Godly folks over at iBankCoin will be launching a contest of sorts for 12631 members only. As you know, every year we have a March Madness contest for PPT members and we always give out $1,000 to the winner. However, this year, I am feeling a bit generous and will grant $2,000 to the winner of the 12631 contest, as a small token  of gratitude for your ongoing business and prayers to the stock Gods.

The details for the contest will be revealed soon. It will last from November 1st to the latter part of December, so bring your A game.

Finally, I am dead serious about plucking one of you from the Blogger Network to become iBankCoin’s next tabbed blogger. I am in the market for someone who can call the markets and express his/her opinions without committing 8th grade grammatical errors. The grammar game is very much an integral  part of being a tabbed one, so step your game up–son. If you are interested in joining the iBankCoin team (salary is the ancient Roman minimum wage), let your voice be heard and loud. There are good people vying for such a position. I suggest you do not squander such an opportunity, as it comes around once every 3 years or so.

This summer brought great gifts of drought and low crop yields. As a result, ag prices screamed higher and protein stocks tanked.

Over the past three months PPC is down 31%, SAFM is down 18%, TSN is down 16% and SFD is down 20% year to date.

The time for half measures and cowardice is over.

Based upon historical precedence, this is not a good time to buy protein stocks. During the months of September and October, historically, they’ve been serial underperformers, which is why I will buy them with vigor and imperious tenacity (extra Costanza!). The protein trade, mind you, will be my next thesis trade, climaxing during the gluttonous month of Thanksgiving.

Thus far, I’ve purchased about 500,000 shares of PPC, a starter position, in order to get accustomed with the caprices of the fucked-faces who trade the name on a daily basis.

Due to The Great Corn Scare of 2012, ranchers and chicken fuckers were forced to cull and kill their stock early, unable to feed their ugly faces thanks to inadequate feed supplies. That trade is over, seemingly. Moreover, I believe the beaten down nature of the protein sector has exhausted itself and will enjoy a revival, based upon my un-shakable belief that humans, particularly of the unseasonable American variety, enjoy to stuff their fat-fucking-faces, continuously, without regard for decorum, wellness or temperance.

I’m not doing shit in this market right now. With the Dow up 100, I am, respectfully, wasting my fucking time–like viagra induced perverts in solitary confinement.

With the cash, coupled with my bitchass positions and HDGE, I am seemingly retarding myself into a coma. I will be picking up the pace next week.

Who knows, perhaps the market wakes up to wet electric shocks next week, sending the bulls aflame down Wall? Nevertheless, one thing is for certain, NFLX is going the fuck out if it doesn’t uptick soon.

The bottom line: it was an uneventful week for me, much to my surprise and chagrin. Taking a step back to gander at the bigger picture, I am up 25% for the year with the best months of the market ahead of me. I am strapped with lots of cash and explosives, so don’t fuck with me. By X-mas, I intend to be up no less than 100%, fulfilling the prophecies laid out in late 2011 that 2012 would be “The Year of The Fly” indeud.

Strong Buy Movie Rec: 13 Assassins

When YELP’s lock up expired, speculators guessed that the shares would drop, in line with other social media disaster who fell victim to a similar fate. But this time, the opposite happened! The stock soared 22%, comically horse raping shorts and sending them sea-worthy inside of “fag-boxes.”

Going into today, we all waited for the mighty Federal Reserve to print more money for us, so that we might enjoy a little unchecked, hedonistic decadence, and prosperity, through never-ending stock market inflation. Those who bet on QE3, did so in gold, silver and other commodities. If QE3 was not enacted, investors knew that gold and silver might plummet lower, amidst crowds of speculators heading for the exits at identical times.

The exact opposite happened!

This isn’t by chance, but by design!

The mythical powers that be are attempting greats feats of magic, right in front of your eyes. Eventually, you will become so disillusioned by non-sensical events, you will simply give up analyzing news, in exchange for VXX like complacency.

Complacency, order and organized chaos is the game plan, gentlemen.

With my money, I remain in a heavy cash position (35%) and have opted to stay that way until next week. I don’t see a sense of urgency to do anything right now. After all, euro-bonds are higher and QE3 is NOT a reality.

So what’s the rush?

Stocks are trading up with or without QE. Life is one giant Costanza trade.

Act accordingly.

Here I am spending a thousand dollars per day, everyday, for the unforeseeable future, all the while some poor schlepp born into some obscure town in 0hio dies from starvation because all of the blue collared jobs have been sent abroad. Am I to feel guilty because my deck has been stacked into my favour? If so, do I deserve this minour success because my Father and Grandfather worked liked dogs, and died poor, just to put food on my table?

The truth is, life is random. Nothing is destined to be and everything is organized chaos. The same rules apply to the stock market. Why did APKT blast off two days ago, yet trade lower yesterday? YELP traded lower 9 consecutive days ahead of their lock-up period expiration and then positively annihilated short sellers on expiration day to the tune of +22%.

Random horseshit.

Tomorrow the Fed will reveal their plans and the market is going to respond. It is entirely possible the market will trade down or up, no matter what. If the Fed says no, markets may bounce because the Fed “may do QE later.” Or, the markets may trade lower on the announcement of QE because “the news is baked in and the Fed is acknowledging a structural problem with the US economy.”

Random horseshit.

The true value of a company can never be determined over a short period of time, same goes for the overall market. Just because the market sold off today doesn’t mean the bull run is over. Furthermore, in the event we trade +300 tomorrow, that will not guarantee higher prices one month from now.

As investors, we need to have convictions. Lukewarm doesn’t pay the bills. If you lack the backbone to bet big when it matters, you will never amount to anything in this business. Having said that, the POMO perversion does not appeal to me because of the headline risk aspect. Because of that, I’ve been forced to suspend core thesis trades in exchange for pussified neutrality. In the not so distant future, I will, once again, allocate resources into companies that I find to be inexpensive.

Once the fucking Bearded Clam is out of the way, I will be swinging clawhammers and heavy battle axes, randomly, at homeless men in wheeled chairs–adjacent to idle manholes.

During QE1 and QE2 the S&P 500 gained about 30%. The biggest winners were found in basic materials. Incidentally, since the Fed stopped QE, basic materials have materially underperformed the market. Once high fliers like CLF, X and JOY now suffer under heavy anvils tossed by weaker than expected Chinese economic data. However, things are about to change, rather dramatically, should The Bearded Clam implement POMO tomorrow.

First off, you need to understand there isn’t a rush to buy now. If QE3 is a go, stocks will coast higher for a period no less than 6 months. It’s foolhardy to jump in ahead of potentially catastrophic news.

So, instead of worrying about QE or not to QE, I’ve been busy exploring the possibility that our moon, mind you, is in fact an alien space-station, designed to spy on us earthlings 24 hours per day.

Below is part of a screen I put together inside of the hallowed halls of The PPT. There you will find the biggest pieces of shit basic materials have to offer. Consequently, under QE3, that shit, mind you, will be turned into 24 karat gold!!!