Bargain or Value Trap?

I am formulating a new thesis, one that will be revealed over the next week or two. After my refinery thesis, I’ve been drifting in the wind–a feeling that is not desired by “The Fly.”

Looking over some screen, in search for value, the billion dollar question came to mind.

Are these value traps or bargains?

What do you think?

This psychopath wants to create a sonic boom with his face.

Regrettably, I was informed today that one of the crew, iBC contributor, distinguished gentleman of both PPT and 12631, passed away recently. His twitter handle was @dffapa– but his real name was Matt.

I don’t know how he died. All I know is that he was one of us, regular contributor to the stream of consciousness that is one of the most important and valued things in my life. His last comment to me was in early August, a sharp chastising for going long–deservedly so. Perhaps I should’ve listened to him. He was definitely a really sharp dude and good trader.

However, I will have you know that I did once have the honour and privilege of devouring his liver whole in a stock named FOSL. We had a brief competition inside of PPT with it, which carried over onto iBC. It was in good humour, unlike the catastrophe of my very own liver being eaten today in a ship stock named OSG.

At any rate, here is the full archive of Matt’s comments on my blog. Rest in peace, friend.

(Matt’s first comment on Fly blog)

Here are some of his recent comments inside PPT.

Heartfelt condolences go out to his friends and family.

I am looking for reasons to sell OSG, frustrated by the seemingly endless decline in the stock. I went from +10% to -25% inside of 1 week. The stock is getting drilled today, yet there is no news or industry specific clues as to why it’s getting hit. At this point I can only guess there is a big seller. More often than not, this type of drop precedes some fucked up news. I got caught entirely flat footed by this drop, numbed by my fixation with coal.

I have three big positions getting BALBOA’d today, pressing me into a -2.6% drop. Most of yesterday’s gains have been lost and the Dow is up. This is a real fucking mess for me.

On the plus side is ESRX, PEP and DDD–everything else is shit. Luckily I have 20% cash and can use it to average down. But I’m not about to do that when the fucking dow is barely down for the day. I sense a swift and catastrophic correction is in order, for me specifically. Just yesterday I was feeling my oats, long the other black gold, elated with the prospects of maiming short sellers. One day removed from all of that hubris, I’m next on line to have my genitals chopped off.

Fuck me.

My ANR is getting hit this morning because of two analyst downgrades. Should I give a shit about what two shmucks have to say? In hindsight, absolutely not. Nevertheless, their opinions are hurting my position today. Earlier this week, Goldman downgraded ACI. The result: ACI is up more than 20% since then. It goes without saying, often times analysts are reactionary asshats, desperate to make a good call. In my opinion, it’s borderline irresponsible to downgrade coal at the time when a new President can lift EPA restrictions, a cold winter may spur demand and European/Asian exports are on the rise. Plus, has anyone taken a look at natural gas lately? It’s not exactly dirt cheap anymore.

I gather the utilities will be restocking their coal supplies shortly.

JIVE caught a downgrade too. I truly don’t know what to say about that one. My patience is wearing thin on that one.

DDD caught and upgrade and everything else I own is treading water.

Yesterday was a great day for me, making more than 3%. Last I checked, I was down about 0.8%, despite a strong market. Nothing makes me feel worse.

So what do I do on days like this?

I turn off the screen and go to a restaurant or occupy myself with a productive task, separate from the market. It’s impossible to micro-manage all the time and not burn out. In order to stay fresh, sometimes it’s important to let things go, fall subject to the whims of nature.

So there I was, minding my own business, merrily picking away at the rock in search of coal when two men, one French (credit agricole) and the other Japanese (nomura), came up to me and said “your mine sucks dick, hahahahah.” Well, you could imagine how’d that make me feel, darn foreign varmints getting in the way of a little coal production. In these parts, significantly less will get you shot in the face, with a sawed off 12-gauge.

Anyway, I told those two gents (heavy appalachian accent) “why don’t ya’ll get the hell out of here before I hit you with this pick ax. I don’t want no trouble; but if you want some, I got it. Plus anyway, we don’t take too kindly to your type around these parts (spits chewing tobacco onto the ground)”

The two gents said to me “we are downgrading your mine. We don’t think it’s worth as much as people think.”

Aside from not knowing what in the hell they was talkin’ about, I didn’t take to that tone very kindly. The nerve of these two celestials telling me what my business was or is worth. I done had enough of them and asked them boys to kindly leave.

The French fellow said to me “oh yeah, Monsieur, tell your friends down the block we are downgrading them too. We don’t think their coal mines are worth as much as people think either.”

By that time I had enough. I hit the two invaders with my handy union pacific railroad pick ax and buried them in my backyard. It makes for good fertilizer. Just last week a good friend of mine said there was a guy from New York, some yankee fellow, who told him the same thing! I’m not too sure what’s left of him. But I know Arch isn’t exactly the type you start trouble with, if you get my drift.

I have learned through back channels, under confidence, that the next President has been elected this evening, setting up for the “mock election” this November. It was a close race and many of you will be disappointed; but it’s time to shut up now and get back to the business of banking coin.

Do not ask me who will be President, for I swore under allegiance to hold it a secret.

With regards to the debates, I feel it was a draw. I live tweeted it. For those who are interested, peruse my stream here. My bias says Ryan cut his dick off, due to his stoic look versus Biden’s retarded teeth. Nonetheless, Biden was good enough to make democrats feel all nice and cuddly about themselves again.

Live stream videos at Ustream

Today I was gifted with a COCAINE GORILLA RUN in coal, long to tits in ANR. I didn’t take this generosity for granted by sitting idly by–doing nothing. I sold out of PPC and SVU, not because I couldn’t take the losses–but because I could. The losses in both names were a mere trifling, compared to the magnanimous advances made in ANR. Hence, I sold and started a new position in a name more aptly suited for today’s tape: TC.

It’s worth noting, already, I am +3% on TC.

Moving on, I feel today’s action was both bullish and bearish. Bearish for the obvious reasons: selling off from nice high spots is deadly for your financial futures. On the other hand, basic materials showed some gumption, a sector sensitive to both global growth and the superfluities of the Chinese central bank. It’s always been my belief that the Chinese will stimulate their economy, like a motherfucker, when the 18th congress seizes power.

We’re into banking coin, here at iBankCoin. I’ve got a good eye for these sort of things and generally make it my business to succeed, no matter the clime.

NOTE: short seller in the video below isn’t scared of the cocaine induced gorilla. He’s eating that fuckers leaves, petting his baby.

NOTE II: PPT members- I will be issuing today’s report a little early, about 4:45.

I started a position in $TC, using some of the PPC and SVU proceeds.

Cash is now at 20%.