Brushing Off the Fire From My Chest

Well, I caught a respite and sold into it, discarding of MCP like a deformed Spartan baby from mountain top in exchange for menial positions in EXK and ANR. Yes, both EXK and ANR are part of my new thesis, so you can shut the fuck up about it from now until infinity.

My TC ripped higher, making me feel somewhat good about myself. And DECK and FFIV bounced, like all dead cats should.

Semis charged higher, helping my IDTI position too. But this isn’t about me. The market, as a whole, needed today. We needed a big lift to soothe the spirits from the specter of damnation, going into Turkey Day.

Make no mistake (no Bush), I am still incredibly somber on the markets and fear being heavily exposed ahead of the elections. But there’s lots of money swashbuckling around and its always been my place to grab some, whenever the the opportunity arises.

The heart of this bull run is in housing, banks and basic materials. Tech has been fickle, subject to dramatically gay earnings pitfalls. I need to make back a quick 5% before I am able to take on risk again. Today’s 1.75% helped, but it’s merely a trifling compared to the elephantine, “colossus” losses incurred at The House of Fly these last treacherous weeks.

I sold out of MCP, took my lumps and I’m gone.

I started a small position in ANR and a decent sized one in EXK.

Cash is at 22%.

If Romney is up by 5%, according to recent polls, how the fuck is it a close race? From my vantage point, this election is going to be a runaway landslide, not even remotely close. After King Romney wins, coal will soar, as well as banks and brokerages. People will rejoice in the streets, throwing $100 bills at one another, discarding the cocaine for a more appropriate form of illicit substance: near extinct animals cooked to perfection.

But a Romney-Ryan administration means austerity, balanced budgets and the end of QE. That’s right kids, Romney will fire Bernanke, which is sure to upset the markets.

So I am at a cross-roads of sorts, currently building my new thesis through a comprehensive watchlist–just looking at my 18% cash position collecting dust, as all of my “to buy” stocks rip to the upside. I am a deer in headlights, doing nothing, as the fast cars pass me by.

I wanted to buy CIEN and ABFS yesterday, but opted against it because it no longer conformed with my thesis. That’s the problem with discipline: you miss out on all the fun. But in the long term, the (AS I WRITE THIS FUCKING BLOG, I JUST SPILLED FRESHLY SQUEEZED ORANGE JUICE ALL OVER MY WHITE SHIRT).

I don’t even feel like finishing that sentence anymore. This shit is boring me to death. Fuck this shit.

I’m up 1.3% for the day, trending higher, and the markets are going up. Let’s just leave it at that.

You were just about to give up hope. The market was behaving sick–but now you feel better. Consumer confidence spiked because The Bearded Clam instills confidence in the populous. The people love The Clam–they just don’t know it yet. Nevertheless, my current roster of holdings isn’t doing it for me. I am waiting for a small spike in my oversold portfolio of shit, before I sell it out and focus on the future.

Most of my reader base is without electricity. Therefore, traffic stats have plummeted to 2007 levels. This little storm, a cat 1, really fucked up the tri-state area. Can you imagine if a real storm hit us? We are woefully prepared to deal with existential circumstances. I am 100 miles west from the carnage and my grocery stores are completely depleted. I think it’s fair to say it is prudent to keep ample food supplies in the pantry at all times.

VHC is at trial with Apple now for patent infringement. If they win, the stock will rip 20 points to the upside. Last time they went to court was with MSFT. Twenty days into trial, MSFT settled with VHC for $200 million. The Devil feels confident that AAPL will ‘bend the knee’ to VHC, and before presiding Judge Davis, or settle for billions. On edge.

I haven’t opened up the trading turret since last week. I bled out 0.8% yesterday. For the day I am up 1%–big fucking deal.

Add NFLX to the list of stocks that I sold near the lows. It’s sickening to me, having missed out on so much. Just yesterday I blogged about ‘Hurricane Plays’ and mentioned AZZ’s municipal infrastructure business. Shortly after my post, the stock went from +0.50 to +4.00!

Fuck the stock Gods and whoever else is cursing me with inverse winship.

The recovery may cost upwards of $50 billion. Whether you care to acknowledge it or not, housing is in full recovery mode, with values soaring nationwide (Phoenix +20%, Miami +8% yoy). Now with Sandy, people from the tri-state will need to rebuild, drawing from an already constrained building materials markets.

Sheetrock and insulation will be in high demand, helping shares of USG, OC and EXP.

Generator plays: GNRC, BGG

Rebuilding municipal infrastructure will help VMC, AZZ and WCC.

Specific to home owners, people will need to paint over new sheetrock, helping shares of VAL, SHW. CE makes chemicals that go into paint, and BLL makes the cans.

Heavy construction will be needed. Hence shares of HEES, CAT and CNH are higher.

You can’t build without wood. WY, LL, UFPI, BXC and LPX are your plays.

If Sandy ruined your deck, don’t worry–TREX will provide you with the materials for a new one–cheaper than real wood.

Need new kitchen cabinets? MAS is your play.

Top rated general contractors inside of The PPT are: EME, PIKE and PWR.

All of this new material will need to be trucked in. ODFL, LSTR, YRCW, MRTN, HTLD and ABFS are your plays.

You can’t build a new home without concrete, flooring and a roof. BECN, AWI, MLM, CRH, TXI and CX.

Nuts and bolts? FAST.

Are you interested in buying some power tools? MSM, SWK are your plays.

Too cheap to buy new tools? Don’t worry, URI has your back.

Is your car filled with water? See about KAR, SMP, GPC and TRW.

After that, appliances will be in demand, helping SHLD, WHR, LOW and HD.

BLDR offers a wide array of building supplies and CLH, ECOL cleans up hazardous materials.

In short, if you were a bull on housing before this tragic storm, you have to be foaming at the mouth now. Beware of quick traders and profit taking, which is typical after an event like this. And of course, one must be vigilant ahead of the elections. Should Obama be elected for a 2nd term, dollars to donuts this market is going down 10% in fairly short order.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQcdsZVcJ5A

Following 4 straight months of gains, the SPY stands to lose about (BRACE YOURSELVES) 1.9% in the month of October. It feels much more than that because we relinquished gains and the tech heavy NASCRAP is off by almost 5%.

For me, October was a catastrophe, halving my annual gains thanks to gross stupidity.

Last year the market did very little in the months of November and December, basically trading flat.

I bring bad news for you market players out there.

This will be the 3rd worst October since 1999. The only other years when the NASDAQ traded off by more than 4% was in 2000 and 2008. Generally speaking, October is a very good month for stocks. In those down years of 2000 and 2008, the next month the market was destroyed, trading off by 22.9% and 11.4% respectively.

Of course circumstances were unique, with the dot com and housing bubbles contributing to the panic. However, it’s worth noting, is it not?

With my money, I am growing impatient and feel like raising more cash, not for safety, but so I can work from a clean slate–as I feel my current roster of stocks are infected by demons.

Hurricanes happen. DECK happens. Cancer happens. This is a message going out to the world: please shut the fuck up with the platitudes, like “NYers are strong and will persevere through this.” Give me a fucking break.

Disasters are Fukushima, New Orleans via Katrina or Berlin after the allies got done with it.

This is a logistical mess, mostly because local governmental retards had no contingency plans to deal with this unnatural disaster. People lost things, personal items, health, and some lost their lives. But the slogans need to fucking stop, else I’m gonna direct my orbital space cannon at your back up generators, leaving you cold and haunted on Halloween.

Also, the NYSE should continue to suck 10 dicks for closing the exchange for 2 days. America equals liquidity, in stocks, bonds and currency. You can’t depend on Tom, Dick and Harry to swim to work, in order to allow global trade to commence. NASDAQ and BATS were ready to go, but the antiquated NYSE decided to suck 10 dicks instead of conduct business-first time since 1888.

A fucking shame.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_MXKDgR5E

“Fun time” is over. It’s time for you to get out from your flooded basement and GET BACK TO WORK.

Wall Street will be trading tomorrow; as a result, I intend to start banking coin again.

There was some negative news out of AAPL, with regards to executives leaving the firm. But the hurricane clean-up will take precedent, buoying an already buoyant construction materials market to the point of bliss. Everything from sheet rock to paint will be in demand. Contractors will be busy for months, cleaning up the mess.

My friend’s house was all but destroyed. This morning bull dozers are knocking down 900k homes, because they cannot be repaired. Down the block from him a father and his 13 year old daughter perished by drowning. In Queens a 6 alarm fire ripped through 100 homes. The northeast is ill prepared for these type of events. We’re not supposed to get hurricanes, let alone two years in a row.

From what I understand, ChessnWine is fine, but without power.

The lights are out here in Princeton, NJ. They’ve been out for about 2 hours now, forcing me to fire up the back up generator. It’s truly a vagabond thing to do in this day and age, when there are natural gas (whole house) generators on the market. I was going to have my electrician install one this summer, but opted to hold off for next year.

Without a back up generator, my sump pumps would fail. From what I was told, this very house flooded not once, but twice!, during last year’s storm. The previous owner installed another sump pump for good measure, which might come in hand this time around.

There are trees down everywhere, none on my property that I know of.

A very good friend of mine had to evacuate his home on Staten Island, tough son of a bitch who’d only evacuate if his life was on the line. Apparently the ocean made its way to his front porch and streamed right in. He is without flood insurance.

I have enough gasoline to power my generator for at least two days. There are two back up batteries, just in case, with 8 hour of life span attached, just in case.

So far, so good. But it’s getting fucking dicey as fuck out here. The Deacon of Death is upon me, in the most ironic way possible.

NOTE: Isn’t this fun, from a government conspiracy theory point of view?

BREAKING NEWS-

It’s raining and windy in New Jersey. Thus far, the electricity is holding up ’round these parts–but might go out later tonight. In any event, there is a generator and 20 gallons of gasoline in the garage to defend The House of Fly against such extremities. We are not in a flood zone. However, without electricity, sump pumps fail and basements flood.

Last I checked, futures were lower. For the love of Donald Trump’s unparalleled generosity, I don’t know why. Natural disasters are good for GDP, in a macabre sort of way. People need to chill the fuck out and acknowledge the power of The Turkey Gods.

Get out there kids and stock up on some furry boots from DECK, for The Winter is Coming and your feet are going to be cold.

GNRC is killing it with generator sales. HD and LOW were positively jam packed.

Refineries do well because people horde gasoline, not just for cars, but for generators. My friend owns 3 gas stations and hasn’t slept in a week. Business is booming.

Many moons ago, I created a “Hurricane Watchlist” inside The PPT. Whenever an event moves a specific sector, I like to create a watchlist and save it for future reference. Think of it as a stock market diary of sorts, a reminder to buy certain stocks under specific conditions, like hurricanes, terrorist attacks, war etc.

Here are some stocks of note from my Hurricane Watchlist (members can click on link for actual list)

ALJ
GNRC
DK
WNR
PIKE
USG
LL
ENR
VLO
PGTI
RSG
WM