SLUMMING IT

I only made 0.6% today because stocks reversed and went lower. I know your machines tell you a different story. But stocks were lower today. Rest assured, young lads, “The Fly” would never lie to you.

Biotech was weak and a few of my play money positions took a breather. Is it the end of the world? No.

Chinese lottery stocks were ape-strong to the upside. The Option Addict has been all over them and solar. This is a very speculative tape. The money is sloshing about from one place to the next. Where will it stop next?

I WILL TELL YOU EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL LAND, YOUNG LAD.

It’s going to land, yet again, on the shippers–like a belly flop from 1,000 feet.

QED.

I sold BLOX, SPCB and leveraged up some more to add to the above positions.

We are seeing a real divergence in the market today, with mainstream stocks getting hit and low brow, under the radar, degenerate stocks ripping higher. This has all of the wonderful trappings of a market top, at least in the interim. You’re probably wondering why I am not selling stocks. The answer is quite simple, almost infantile.

Well, I have a bit of an issue selling out of my large cap holdings in BBBY, MA, GNC and others, just to raise cash and leave me stranded with a bunch of lunatic biotech names. Believe you me, I love how these mad cappers are trading now and feel as if I were bullet proof, as if I could literally punch a hole through a subway car and rip people out from their “decadent seats.”

But you and I both know, this isn’t going to last. It never does. The market will top, fantastically, and begin a decline that will utterly crush the souls of those leveraged to the hilt in low brow stocks. During my illustrious career of ignoring new business opportunities and not cultivating important client relationships, each and every time I got caught holding the bag— it was a bag filled with feces.

These are the decisions you are faced with today: raise cash and wait for the dip that never comes. Or, continue your reckless buying spree into illiquid hobo stocks. Or, do the opposite of what everyone else is doing and bore yourself to death by buying some MA, GNC and BBBY here, do nothing whilst all of the cool kids make bank in a wide array of lottery stocks.

I am very happy to report to you that I have zero cash, leveraged at 140% of assets (a new record!!!) and own a pastiche (no homo) of large cap names, nicely paired with several, mind you, ghetto stocks, which has resulted in an intra-day gain–thus far– of 2.3%.

(tips hat, runs over homeless man with 1980’s style stretch limo)

Huge earnings beat today. Trust me, no one is talking about IFON’s “iPhone”, dubbed “Very Kool”, sold as a premium electronic device to the innocent people of South America. They’ve carved out a nice niche. Look at these numbers.

SAN DIEGO, March 6, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — InfoSonics Corporation (IFON), the provider of verykool®wireless handset solutions and tablets, today announced results for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2013.

“We are pleased to report a second consecutive quarter of profitability,” said Joseph Ram, president and CEO of InfoSonics.  “Sales in the fourth quarter grew 40% over the same quarter last year, gross profit grew 48% and operating expenses declined by 26%.  It was a record quarter for verykool® products in terms of both sales dollars and units shipped.  Unit shipments during the quarter rose 96% compared to the prior year and resulted in another record year with over 1.9 million units shipped during 2013.  We are beginning to see a higher overall demand for smartphones, and are adjusting our portfolio of products accordingly.  In 2014, we also plan to increase our sales efforts in the United States.”

InfoSonics reported net sales for the 2013 fourth quarter of $11.9 million, which represented a $3.4 million, or 40%, increase from $8.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2012.  The Company reported growth in a number of geographical areas including Mexico, Puerto Rico and Peru, as well as increased sales to private label customers in EMEA and APAC.  Unit shipments during the quarter nearly doubled compared to the prior year, and the average selling price declined by 28% as carrier customers in Latin America purchased more low-end feature phones.  Net sales for the year ended December 31, 2013 amounted to $37.9 million, which represented a $3.6 million, or 11%, increase from $34.3 million for the 2012 year.  Excluding the $2.7 million of distribution sales in the first quarter of 2012, the quarter in which the Company ceased its third-party distribution business, sales of verykool® products during 2013 grew by $6.3 million, or 20%, compared to 2012.

Gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2013 was $2.0 million, a 48% increase over $1.4 million in the 2012 fourth quarter.  The gross profit margin as a percent of sales in the fourth quarter of 2013 rose to 16.9% compared to 16.0% in the 2012 fourth quarter.  Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2013 amounted to $6.9 million, a $136,000, or 2%, increase from $6.8 million for the 2012 year.  The gross profit margin as a percent of sales for 2013 declined to 18.3% from 19.9% in the prior year, reflecting an increase in the sale of low-end feature phones at lower margins during the year.

Operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2013 were $1.9 million, a decrease of $654,000, or 26%, compared to $2.5 million in the 2012 fourth quarter.  This reflects a $176,000, or 10%, decrease in SG&A expenses and a $478,000, or 69%, decrease in R&D expenses.  Operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2013 amounted to $8.1 million, a $1.2 million, or 13%, decrease from $9.3 million for the 2012 year, reflecting decreased bad debt and other expenses, partially offset by increased legal fees, and substantially reduced R&D expenses incident to the Company’s restructurings during 2013 of its China-based development team.

Net income for the fourth quarter of 2013 was $125,000, or $0.01 per share, compared to a net loss of $1.2 million, or $0.08 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2012.  The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2013 was $597,000, or $0.04 per share, compared to a loss for the year ended December 31, 2012 of $2.5 million, or $0.18 per share.

At December 31, 2013, the Company had $2.4 million in cash, $15.9 million of net working capital and no outstanding indebtedness.  Cash and restricted cash balances declined by $3.9 million compared to the December 31, 2012 balances primarily as a result of the growth in receivables and prepaid inventories.

This stock is going much, much higher, to at least $10.

CRTO is doing an offering, which is good for your losers trying to buy in. Look, you missed the run because you didn’t know what CRTO did. It’s not your fault, as you are busy tossing the trash and getting cappuccinos for your boss. But truth be told, if you’re going to be in this business, you should be doing a lot more research. When I was younger, a small punk new to the business, I lived on the Bloomberg terminal. I hogged it like it was my personal property and would scowl at others who interrupted my learning experience.

If you have the money, I strongly suggest getting a BBG terminal for your office. It will open up a new world to you, one where information drives your decisions not voodoo.

I keep thinking about RVNC, regretful for not buying yesterday. These guys are making topical botox cream. If approved, AGN will probably buy them for multiples of what it’s trading for today. Can you imagine how many women and vain men would use it, if it was delivered via cream and not needle? Huge.

The bulkers were upgraded this morning, specifically SBLK, NMM and PRGN. Ignore the specificity of the calls and understand that Capesize rates leapt by another 6% this morning, above $22,200 per day. Again, huge.

Biotech and bulkers. That’s all I have for you this morning. Now get to work.

Let me start off by saying I was right before I was wrong. In the beginning of my Dry Bulk thesis, I felt and stated that BALT should trade up to $15, as rates normalized. Then day rates plunged by 70% in January and I decided to sell my position, in the $6’s for gargantuan gains. I then chilled, like a lobster in Maine, watching the BDI get dismantled and BALT down to low $5’s. I was not prepared, however, for what came next.

Capesieze rates had fallen from $45,000 per day to $7,000. They bottomed, first slowly, then exploded to the upside, like a volcano out of hell. They closed the day at around $20,000. This is a very profitable level for Capesize players. Companies like DRYS, BALT, SB and SBLK should do well.

But the run isn’t over.

The head fake was January. The BDI should continue to do well, especially with signals out of China that they might begin monetary loosening. Commodities are doing quite well and demand for iron ore is persistent. This time around, I am going to see it through–but not on the BALT ship. I am long SB (Safe Bulker) and have no qualms about opting for the safer play, in a world filled with pirates and drunken sailors.

PRGN, NM and EGLE are also interesting. DSX is a charter rate play, so I am not interested in them.

I consider this a high probability play and do not feel as if there is much risk associated with the trade. It’s a fairly straight forward business and earnings are not an issue yet, since expectations are so low. The only real risk is dilution, as these bozos shift around, trying to recapitalize their insane balance sheets. SB, however, has one of the better looking balance sheets in the biz, another reason why I am long.

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You cannot get more distasteful than making light of cancer. Then again, we all get it, especially men and the prostate variety. Let’s face it, we’re going to die and there’s no escaping inevitability. The least we can do is have a good laugh or two at our murderers expense.

What I really meant to say was I am preparing for the cancer conferences in May (ASCO) vis a vie getting long a variety of cancer related biotechs. FLXN is not a cancer treatment play, however. I am long this because both Pfizer and Novartis are investors. The stock is barely above its IPO price and I feel, rather emphatically, demand will soon outstrip supply–pushing the stock much higher.

The same goes with EGRX. These stocks are in play. Biotech IPOs are outperforming everything else and I can’t remember the last time IPOs did this well in after market trading since the dot com days.

Get in while you can.

For the day, I made your annual salary in fees and another 1.83% on my assets under management.

I started a position in FLXN.

I sold out of ARGS for 30%+, NUS for a 5% loss and bought a little EGRX.

I bought SB, in light of the sharp recovery in dry bulk day rates. Yes, BALT has sprung forward without me. But SB hasn’t even begun to get started.

Long for the win. Boat drinks for all.