We’re Not Out of the Woods Yet

I know the market appears to be constructive now, especially since we’re near new highs and all of the high beta stocks are rallying again. However, as of now, we are simply dead cat bouncing. The reason why I can say that with absolute certainty is because it’s true. The biggest losers over the past three months are now the biggest winners. All you have to do is screen for stocks down more than 30% over the past 3 months, and layer atop of that some technical factors and price action magic and voila: you have yourself a nice winner.

Be on guard for false breakouts.

As of now, I am still in the camp that this is simply a respite, along the lines of 2000. This is the bounce after the dip. We will rally until late June, then sell off through July. The market will, once again, rally in August, topping out in September, then enter a most horrendous and miserable Samsonite Hamburgalar bear market through December.

I can only hope to recover half of my losses, realistically. Perhaps by August I will be in a position to short stocks and double my gains as the market vomits on itself, salvaging my year. There is a long road ahead of us. Try not to let your weak-minded emotions get in the way of seeing things clearly.

NOTE: The PPT‘s 7 day hold on the QQQ’s, which was closed out yesterday, was sublime.

The only way to overcome a massive deficit

Congratulations to me: my year to date losses are now just 29%.

Thanks to the move in XON, I’ve cut down my losses to under 30%, which is entirely woeful by any standard north of Mexico. Go ahead and short the markets. Fall victim to your own idiocy, tricked again by the action in TLT. Let me remind you that TLT is going up because of foreign money and not because we are heading toward catastrophe.

Right now I am focused on two stocks: XON and JAZZ. I am looking over my lists (extra Santa) for new stocks to buy, ones that go higher and make people rich. As soon as I figure this stuff out, you’ll be the last to know.

Ciao.

I have a true story for you this morning. My window cleaner texted me this morning, complaining about the stock market and how it keeps making all-time highs despite the economy underperforming. He’s a gold guy, Tea Party extraordinaire, hater of Obama to the third degree. Guys like him, and Rick Santelli, would love nothing more for the country to burn under the leadership of Obama. It would justify their missing out, so to speak, on one of the greatest bull runs the market has ever known.

My response to his text isn’t important. What is important is the wall of worry that we seem to overcome each and every time the market runs into a snag. This time the depths of the decline in some of the high tech stocks was a little more worrisome than previous declines, causing a full Edward Longshanks rout of the sector. Lo and behold, all appears to be good now. The weather is getting balmy. Restaurants are buzzing and people are getting drunk again.

Gold and silver stocks are placed back into the ‘fag box‘ and WDAY beat earnings again, for what is probably a record for any single management team in the history of publicly traded companies.

I’ve upped my risk profile a little bit and hope to take some short term profits soon. I am not going to just sit back and watch my positions climb or drop. I intend to be very hands on with my holdings, as it is the only way for me to outperform the market.

I’m expecting a little profit taking this morning, followed by a late day recovery. We should post another up week and continue to rally from now until late June.

I have a whole list of stocks that are prime, ready, to rip. The common denominator of all the recent winners simply lies in the fact that they’re down more than 20% over the past 3 months. Indiscriminately, the market is bargain shopping in the trash heap, bidding up stocks that were tossed aside a few weeks ago: classic dead cat bounce.

I am going to give you tonight’s list of potential screamers, but accentuate one single name: XON

While it’s true, I am talking my own book here, having bulked up on the name over the past week. It has all of the rich characteristics of a stock ready to slap the ears off short sellers. More than 70% of the float is locked up by insiders and/or activist shareholders, leaving very little in the float left to trade. With about 20% of the float sold short, this could get very ugly, very quickly, should XON catch some fire. I believe it will, very soon.

Here are the other names on my list:

ALNY
IMPV
ICPT
ECOM
CRCM
MKTO
NOW
WETF
LNKD
RNG
N
SCTY
CNQR (OWN IT)
MBT
FUEL
YY

For the sake of my sanity, I will keep this brief.

Everyone believed when David Einhorn said we were in a bubble. They followed him into his bubble basket and then went to the SALT conference, to cavort with one another, drinking champagne and eating coconut shrimps. They made great speeches about “the end is near” and how the current stock market was to be “unsustainable” and we should “sell now” or forever hold our penises. The truth of the matter is, the retarded folks at SALT are now the sheep. They eat the grass fertilize our crops.

Since everyone is a hedge fund manager these days, no one is a hedge fund manager. I mean that in the colloquial sense that hedge fund managers are synonymous with smart money. Right now, they’re the dumbest money around.

Everything’s up again. The broken elevator action has been stopped and we are back in the black. As such and accordingly, I applied risk to my portfolios today by selling PG, FANG and buying loads of XON, IFON (very little) and CNQR.

I also sold out of my program purchase of QQQ, that was flagged by The PPT‘s oversold signals, for a 3 point profit.

I believe we have a window of opportunity here and I am trying to maximize my potential, without taking on too much risk. It’s a delicate surgery to perform. Then again, I am a Doctor in blogging, god damn it.

I overweighted this position, up 8% from basis. My short term target is $20.

Going to overweight a speculative stock soon.

I sold out of FANG, despite loving the name. It was down 3% from my basis and I have zero tolerance for underperformance. I replaced it by adding to CNQR, which wasn’t a core holding until now.

Aside from that, I nibbled, again, on IFON and am quite pleased by today’s showing, up nearly 1% thanks to JAZZ.

Two weeks ago this blog was seething with pessimists, men clowning about the site in burlap’d clothing attire–screaming at me for being “long and wrong.” Although I was wrong, I made the right decision by staying long and resisting the temptation to go short. My problems are far from solved here. However, the point is this: the crowd is always wrong. Period.

There are very few times, save the social media bubble post FB IPO, when the crowd, the unwashed masses, are ahead of the curve. More often than not, when an opinion is so universal, so absolute, it’s time to go the other way.

Then again, we’re in a roaring bull market and have been since 2009.

Early this morning, on the Twitter and elsewhere on this site, most people are foaming from the mouth to get long again. The church of technical analysis permits this sort of “side-switching” because “the trend is your friend.” This is all inane rabble, as you know. Nonetheless, the market appears to want higher again.

My game plan is to follow the roadmap of 2000. Our bubble blew up last month. Now we will recover and offer false hope to the masses, before the “hammer of certain death and despair” strikes a fatal blow in late August.

By the way: in case you missed this gem, Jon Stewart, America’s only main stream journalist, skewered Tim Geithner in a 45 minute interview last week. Check it out.