It’s Time to Fly High Again

Airlines are at rock bottom hybrid levels, courtesy of Captain Broccoli aka The PPT.

Hybrid levels are super depressed, at the same time levels for oil and gas stocks are near the high end of the range. The range-bound Gods demand satisfaction. Fade oil; get long airlines is the trade.

Top picks: AAL, ALGT, VA

I didn’t even look at the screen once, god damn it. Why bother? We were destined to trade down, mandated by the Greek gods. Nothing has changed, lads. We’re still in the single best investable environment since 2009. Energy is cheap. Borrowing costs are nothing. Profits are bountiful.

Today we had upside in oil/gas stocks. Tomorrow we shall bathe in the profits of tech/biotech.

This stalemate, this battle of the bulge, is going to end soon. And when it does, your dumb ass is going to be roasted alive inside of my brazen bull.

This Greek story doesn’t seem to ever want to go away. It’s like a recurring nightmare that haunts you nightly. What people forget is that it’s only a nightmare and not real, just like Greece. They are not a ‘real’ country, haven’t been for 2,000 years. Naturally, everyone is sizing up Greece’s debt and declaring it ‘the next Lehman’ event, which is 100% horseshit.

The ECB hasn’t lost control of anything, despite what the great sages from the internet say. As a point in fact, sovereign borrowing costs are not only at record lows; but rates are NEGATIVE, pan europe, introducing a brand new form of absurdity to this day and age. It’s amusing to me that you believe “they” lost control, when you are lending them money and paying them for it!

In my book, you, the idiot lender, purchaser of bonds/bunds, have lost control.

Stocks moved higher by 5% last week and now we’re setting up for some weakness. At the same time, oil has caught a bid and those stocks are responding in kind. It actually pays to be diversified sometimes.

This too shall pass. Eat a sandwich and go watch some re-runs.

This market is capable of exacting extreme pain on you. The very essence of who you are is at stake. Don’t lose your lives betting against it. The lack of any discernible momentum has led to an apathy not seen since the Tulip bubble collapse of 1637. Our society doesn’t appreciate stakes in highly profitable companies anymore. Instead, they buy paintings for $300 million.

Eventually, this paradigm will turn on a dime and make you regret the day you were born. All defensive positions, such as bonds and gold, will be tossed into the fires of redemption and stocks will careen higher, whistling and screaming all the way towards its inevitable glory.

Why I am so confident?

The writing is all over the walls, lads. Your lack of faith in the American people is downright traitorous. Your path is a ruinous one and you will be punished for it.

We have a robust jobs market, cheap energy, benign government, corporations are flush with cash, and governments are able to handle their debt with ease, with interest rates at record lows.

The perpetual crisis economy that you underwrite does’t exist. All of the cancerous statements regarding the future of our great nation is merely a reflection of your disappointment of who you’ve become. Life is filled with peaks and valleys. We ebb and flow thru these troughs with purblind guidance, spread by psychotic addled sociopaths in a position to eschew good news in favor for headline grabbing nonsense and despair.

These are the good times. Let’s at least pretend that we know it.

GOD BLESS THE GODS UPDATE: The iBankCoin iPhone/iPad App has been rebuilt from scratch and is now available. Thank the good folks from Cypress North for their generosity in providing your worthless asses with scripture that will be recorded in the annals of finance history for  thousands of years.

While cavorting on the Twitter last night, amidst the savages, I posted this seasonal graph of oil/gas exploration stocks, lifted from the second iteration of The PPT, Exodus.

If you’re wondering what some of these names did in 2008, when the lot of you were hoping to get hit by automobiles and die, instead of having to endure the agony of the market each and every day, I bring forth data!

2008 returns (Feb, March, April)

CXO +15.5%, +10.04%, +7.5%

CLR +12.7%, +13.5%, +34.8%

HP +14.1%, +4.5%, +14.5%

This story seems to repeat itself each and every year. Following a nice week of oil gains, most analysts and ‘exBERT’ pundits have soured on crude. Not me.

I shall hold onto shares of SLCA, FMSA, DVN, OXY and PACD until I am rich with profits, bathing in the blood of the very people who commit grave market sins. Those people, all of them, shall be punished in my fires of retribution.

In all actuality, being down a hundred after the melt up we had isn’t such a horrible thing. But it’s the manner in which we declined, post bullshit “good news” futures melt up. I hate it.

This market is a widow-maker, destroyer of capital, bastard of bastards. The one ace in the hole, oil to zero, has completely turned on a dime and now is the single best place to put one’s money. Fuck me running sideways. But I’m not complaining, as I saw it coming and have plenty of oil longs.

But, if you look closely, each and every morning, Wall St. analysts have been downgrading oil stocks, post 65% sell off. These monsters missed the top and ate crow the whole time. Now that the sector is bouncing and crude caught a bid, they are taking this opportunity to downgrade. Puhleeze. No one knows where oil is heading, certainly not those clowns.

All in all, it was a good week. Stocks responded in the oddest of ways, despite the soviets in Greece attempting to ruin the ECB. Let’s cross our fingers and party to the Gods that next week brings us similar fortunes. Although I am reticent to believe in any form of momentum, up or down. The conditions are present for a face ripping rally though May, with the exception to individual names like GPRO and YELP who can and will ruin you via earnings shortfalls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY1o5eL8DY4

Ooh, the jobs numbers were good; therefore, we should all margin out our accounts and throw fistfuls of cocaine at our cold callers, ordering them to smile and dial.

You know what? Fuck this market and the sick, twisted, people who trade it. You know damned well we are going to reverse and get tar and feathered today. For almost a year now this story has replayed itself over and over, luring me in like a sucker on a stick. Well, I have news for you, I’ve reached the maximum allowable limits of jadedness and will do the exact opposite of what logic dictates, hereinabove, for as long as it takes to re-establish market dominance over my peers.

I am not fooled by Mother Market and know her devilish ways.

As an aside, social media is now uninvestable. I am left with a small, legacy, position in YELP and couldn’t be more disappointed in the direction the company is taking. It’s not just YELP. This entire industry, save LNKD, FB and TWTR, is riddled with bullshit. And there is one common denominator: FREE CASH FLOW.

From herein out, I am going to focus, exclusively, on companies generating significant free cash flow. The market has matured to the point of apathy with these high growth money losers. The illusion, the facade, has been lifted and the bottom line is all that matters.

I strongly advise you to heed this words of caution and to reconfigure your holdings to preclude degenerate gambling stocks before the hammer of death strikes us all again.

Now shut the fuck up and get back inside of the garbage can.

NOTE: I hope GPRO shorts die in hell today.

I bought PACD, not for fun, but for the win.

But I love YNDX.

With some of my available cash, I started a position in YNDX. I like this until $20.