18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Seventy five percent of stocks are lower this morning. Breadth this bad suggests we are going to stay down all day. Any efforts to buy dips in the morning are activities of a child, one who has never learned the lessons of hardship. Nonetheless, this is exactly the sort of day that makes you look around for bargains.
Get your fucking watch lists handy, lads, for they will become useful soon.
At the very bottom of the barrel is aluminum stocks, down an outrageous 6.5% as an industry today. Fuck them and to hell with all commodities. I trade in and out of oil and have stated that I am long until April. Aside from that, I am keenly interested in free cash flow generating machines on sale.
Here is my short list of stocks that I will buy on dips.
AMCX
SSNC
GRUB
MD
WYN
CTSH
ALXN
SBNY
FL
and maybe WYNN and RL.
Gone are the days when you could play Amazonian cell phone operators and sleep well at night. Today, all that matters, and trust me when I say this, is earnings per share, top and bottom line growth, and gross margins. Any other method of procuring stocks is simply asinine.
You’re very concerned about domestic economic growth. After all, rates are so low; it must mean something.
As a bear, I’d like for you to explain to me, the layman, exactly what’s so bad about this investable environment.
Let’s go over the boolish check-list.
1. Low rates
2. Cheap energy
3. Cheap commodities
4. The economy is producing 250k jobs per month.
5. The market is at new highs.
6. Innovation in tech/biotech is booming.
7. Cash levels are at new highs.
8. Earnings are at new highs.
Ok, now it’s your turn.
You can cite high levels of sovereign debt all you want. The simple fact of the matter is the market doesn’t care, as evidenced by rates.
Futures are soft this morning and BABA is pulling a FB on their investors. I fully expect BABA to flush out into the $60’s before recovering. Using Exodus (the second iteration of The PPT), I am able to run models, in an effort to find the ideal traits in a stock portfolio to reach maximum returns. I have no interest sharing my findings with the likes of you, since giving it to you would be a waste. But, I will tell you this: had you simply avoided Chinese stocks, as a whole, over the past year, 2, 3, 4 years etc, your investment returns would be markedly higher.
While it’s true, Chinese stocks offer great trading opportunities, on occasion. Nevertheless, it’s not worth the hassle. Say no to the burrito, every single time.
I loved the action in SLCA so much today, I started a new position in EMES and added to FMSA.
Both EMES and FMSA are short term trades, while SLCA is longer term oriented. The pin action in oil was great today. But don’t let that trick you into believing there is instant-cash to be had here. I am prepared to buy both EMES and FMSA lower, just one time, before I my cost basis is fixed.
Yesterday I sold WFT because I was afraid of a short term move lower. That was a mistake. As you know, my thesis is to be long oil through April, which is why SLCA is one of my largest positions. I demonstrated profound conviction as SLCA went lower, buying its shares down to $24.
Before I give you a lecture about conviction, it is important that you know it is impossible to have if your weighting is wrong. If you are invested too heavily in a stock or a particular sector, it’s like having a gun held against your head, which is attached to a trigger that is controlled by a clock. If you’re interested in longer time frames, start off by buying in small increments, anywhere between 1-4% of assets and move up.
It’s meaningless to sell a 2% position for a small, short term, profit. I’d much rather build up a position over time, then sell as the share price hits my targets.
Over the past year, here are some of my biggest winners, all of which I still hold, with entry points.
BX +18% ($33, $31)
STZ +32% ($87)–it never gave me a chance to buy lower
HAIN +40% ($44)
HAR +45% ($105, $95)
GILD +25% ($80, $93, $100)
JAZZ +25% ($143)
PANW +63% ($99, $81)
BID +13% ($40, $35)
WFM +46% ($40, $38)
ICPT +20% ($236, $154)
AAPL +32% ($90, $103)
There are other stocks that I’ve stubbornly held onto, which haven’t panned out yet, such as: YELP, NDRM, SLCA, MU and of course your favorite HABT.
The moral of the story is, if you’re not sure about what you’re doing, then you’re just wafting in the wind, controlled by small moves, churning your face away into a blender. We’ve all been down the road of indecisiveness and it’s an unpleasant trip.
I am absolutely convinced, thanks to the advice of ancient spirits, that this market will trade higher. Greedily, I want to capture as much of the upside as I can. To do that, there is only one course of action, which is to shut the fuck up about down days, take the hits when the come, and plan for the future.
Interested in some huge upside plays? Look no further than SBNY, a NYC centric super-regional bank growing deposits 30% year in and year out. Or how about ICPT? Their trials attest to a cure for fatty liver. Or how about SHAK and HABT on the food front? Interested in clothing? Might I interest you in KATE or UA?
Do you watch television? Sure you do. If you are an avid fan of television you know we are in the golden era of programming, which is why A list actors are popping up on shows all over the place. In the old days A list actors wouldn’t be caught dead on television. It was where careers died. But now, the production quality is as good, or better than, most movies. Budgets are massive, talent is abundant, and most importantly, people are interested.
It is the reason why NFLX went from $60 to $400. The subscription numbers soared after House of Cards lured people in. I have another play, perhaps not as lucrative as NFLX, but equally meaningful.
AMCX.
AMC is a leading cable channel, with plenty of quality programming. All of you know Breaking Bad, right? That was an AMC show. How about Mad Men, The Walking Dead, Hell on Wheels, or Turn? Most importantly, have you heard or seen the new Breaking Bad spin off Better Call Saul? About 5 episodes in, the reviews are fantastic. If this show can pick up where Breaking Bad left off, ad dollars should remain very strong and AMCX should spring higher.
Is there anything else to look forward to? Excellent question, young man. As a matter of fact there is.
This spring, legendary actor from the smash hit show House ( a personal favorite of mine), Hugh Laurie, is teaming up with “Loki” from the Avengers, in a new show called Night Managers. AMC Networks owns BBC America. If this show is a hit, which I cannot see how it won’t be, AMCX will make a bee-line for a hundy roll.
Back in 2000 the father of a childhood friend of mine had a few hundred thousand invested with me. He was a big exec at a large multi-national bank and threw me some ‘fuck you money’ to help a kid from Brooklyn out. We made some nice gains and then in March of 2000, after the NASDAQ topped out above 5,000, all fucking hell broke loose.
He ignored my pleas to “hang in there” and to “average down”–because he knew better. I remember the time he called to close his account like it was yesterday. While chuckling, he said to me “you are screwed for another 15 years. The NASDAQ isn’t going to come back for at least 15 years.”
Naturally, being inexperienced, in my early 20’s, rich as fuck, I laughed at him and called him a ‘crazy old man’ and we parted as friends.
Well, lo and behold, here we are, almost exactly 15 years to the date of his prediction and the NASDAQ is once again at 5,000.
Last go around, the big money was made in tech stocks. This time around, the spec money is being made in biotech. Will the market top out again at 5,000?
PFFFFF.
You have to be fucking kidding me. NASDAQ 6,000 here we come.
I was going to let you off the hook, but now I’ve decided to bring you into my clinic for thorough examination.
There is never a good excuse for being cash heavy in a bull tape. At times, truth be told, these blunders happen. I recall being in cash during a bull run and it felt worse than being wrong. For me, to do nothing was equal to death. But some of you relish in nothing, you wallow in it like fat pigs.
We’ve been shooting higher for 6 years now. All the way higher you fight me, the Fed, and whoever else disagrees with your fucked up assessment. You either nailed the 2008 crisis or completely missed it and crave a big win. The biggest win, naturally, is when everyone else loses. You’re simply an unhappy man, discontent with the way things turned out. You galavant about the internets like a fucking idiot, predicting pain and tragedy. You’re a jackass of the first order, owner of nothing, destroyer of hope.
There is nothing worse than a man who seeks to destroy the faith of man. I am not talking about faith in the religious sense, more of the philosophical.
As members of a society whose achievements date back to the fucking wheel, it’s imperative that we feel confident in our progress. We want understand the risks, but above all, we want to believe that our actions will improve upon the plight of mankind.
Short sellers have been around since the beginning of time. Some people short sell life; they’re called murderers. Others short sell integrity; they’re called frauds. The truth is, some companies, like LL, deserve to die and short sellers provide society with a noble duty– by executing these companies for the benefit of all. But like all things in life, avarice, greed, combined with outright ignorance and delusional thinking, just causes morph the good deeds of a few into a gross perversion of the many. Therefore, from time to time, you gremlins eating chicken legs after midnight must be exterminated for the benefit of all. Such a time is now.
Most short sellers are simply swinging from the fans, hoping to shoot some poor, unsuspecting, person in the face.
How does one cure oneself from this affliction?
This is very simple. DO YOUR JOB.
Imagine you weren’t an internet economist and was forced to pick stocks, else be tossed into an open fire pit. Fight the demonic forces inside of you, educate yourselves beyond charts, and allocate funds.
Due to recent events in and around the Kremlin, “The Fly” had made an immediate exit from The Russian Federation. In no way does this have to do with President Petrov and his disregard for our President, Frank Underwood. As such, I’ve parted with my positions in QIWI and YNDX. Although I believe both are cheap stocks, the political climate isn’t worth the risk holding these stocks through fascist news flow.
In addition to YNDX and QIWI, I sold out of WFT.
With the proceeds, I bought FL, MD and WYN.
God speed, I am back in America, buying silly American sneaker companies, who sell overpriced Air Jordan’s to stupid teenagers.
I was going to throw fire balls at the bears this morning for betting against stocks for the past 6 years, but then I thought “what’s the point?” We all have roles to play, don’t we? One thing that is consistent in this market, as well as humanity, is behavior. Some people will always see things for what they are, others for what they want it to be, and a small minority want to see nothing at all. In between that spread of optimism and pessimism is a profit margin to be had by shrewd speculators.
Heading into March, I make no assumptions. We just had the best February in years, one for the ages, and to believe this rally could continue, unabated, would be naive. Nevertheless, there is little reason to prattle about the internets about a pending correction either. Stocks at new highs tend to make fresh, new highs. I’ve always found it to be amusing that people hate buying new highs. How in the world do you think AAPL, ORCL, MSFT and CMG got to where they are today? Do you believe buying new highs in those stocks over the past twenty years resulted in poor returns?
Granted, those are exceptional companies and it’s hard to find those early. But we can avoid the disasters, no? We both know the stocks that I lost money in last year, yes?
Let’s review my biggest blunders.
FEYE: bought it when it traded 20x sales, unprofitable.
SPLK: bought it near 20x sales, unprofitable.
WDAY: bought it near 25x sales, unprofitable.
YELP: bought it near 17x sales, barely profitable
GPRO: I didn’t sell it when up 15%, ended up losing 15%. The company isn’t profitable.
Now since 2009, it was fairly easy to make money in a number of sectors, simply due to a high tide lifting all boats. That changed in 2014 and I believe the characteristics of 2014 will continue throughout 2015. Those traits are: avoid high price/sales dice rolls, companies that are unprofitable, and small capped nonsense is simply not worth the hassle.
That doesn’t mean you can’t make coin in small cap trades, directional, over small periods of time. But the time for gambling on unprofitable, small caps, into earnings is over. That’s the main philosophical difference that I’m adhering to throughout 2015.
The overwhelming majority of my holdings are free cash flow machines. I do, however, partake in rampant speculation on a continuous basis. However, that is done with a pre-determined percentage of assets, all done under the framework of certain risk profiles.
Early going the market looks good, sans commodities. More later.
Considered to be something of a novelty by many, seasonality trends are revered here at iBankCoin like God himself hiking down the Rocky Mountains in search of good coconut water.
Bear in mind, had you adhered to the seasonal trends of January and March, you’d be up 13% for the year like me, playing gambling games inside of the oil and gas sector.
Without further delay, I present to you, the lower tier of the barrel, aka the ‘reader class’, seasonal trends for the month of March.
Flawless in March (minimum 5 years, 95%+ win rate)
Most up years (min 20 years)
Highest percentage returns (min +11%)
Industries with most winners (5%+ returns, 75%+ win-rates)
Apparel clothing
Banks
Specialty Retail
Restaurants
Rental Leasing and Services
Oil and Gas
Home Furnishing
Business Services
Worst Industries
Alternative Energy
Chinese Burritos
Biotech
Software
Semis
Resorts and Casinos
Drug Manufacturers
Telecom
Communication and Equipment
Worst Performing ETF
FAZ (-20%)
Best Performing ETF
FAS (+12%)
In summary, if basing investment decisions based solely on seasonal trends, you want to take profits on biotech, semis, chinese burritos and software and get long oil, retail and restaurants. Think consumer and fade the excess.
For members of The PPT, the screen that I used for this post is here.
