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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Bond Hostages

Tonight, I saw Cramer on tv lying about why the market is going down again. You know, it’s real easy to blame short sellers, via SKF purchases (how absurd and laughable), for bringing down this financial system we call “capitalism.” Then again, this is not capitalism, but gangsterism.

Nonetheless, it’s not me and my friends buying 20,000 SKF, market order, with a $10 stop, that is causing the meltdown—trust me. Quit fucking lying to people, jackass, then maybe your bullshit stock price will get above $3.

SHAME ON THE HOUSE OF CRAMER.

The reason why we are in this situation is because the growth we have enjoyed, over the last 20 years or so, was built upon a lie. It was financed by vultures, who are now holding the entire tax base hostage.

The reason why GM, F, AIG, C, BAC, MS or any other piece of shit is not allowed to fail is because of the bond holders. They own this country, from the top down. They own trillions of dollars in corporate and treasury debt. They are the people or entities who have financed and will continue to finance our lifestyles and/or stupid shit.

Without them, this country would be forced to start making our own shit, because China would be like “get the fuck out of here with those bullshit dollars.”

Let truth be told, Bill Gross and his fucking friends need to voluntarily step up and tell C, BAC and GE that they will take a 60% haircut on their bonds, in order to save America. But they will never do that.

All they care about, all anyone cares about is themselves. So why should we act any differently?

I should stop paying my mortgage.

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K A R A B E L L ‘ D

Don’t try to paint this fucking pig; we’re about to crash through the floorboards. The Government just threw away $150 billion in AIG and are on the verge of making themselves look totally inept, as opposed to ambiguously gay.

I want to short oil stocks, via DUG/ERY, until XOM prints $55. You know I hate Commercial Re; however, I want better prices, before initiating shorts. One name worth shooting at right now is STC—big stupid title insurance company.

On the long side, I like guns—lots of them. I’ve been buying SWHC and RGR, figuring if we head towards civil unrest, loads of egregious Southern gentlemen, like Woodshedder, will head over to their local gun stores.

The country is hemlocked in a way that cannot be reversed. Years of reckless spending and stupid Congressmen have finally fucked the world for good.

America, it is time to pay that fucking piper, else get “KARABAELL’D” to death, amidst fascinatingly obvious capital losses.

NOTE: Those of you who signed up for The PPT, tonight I will post my top 10 positions, with a few other thoughts on commercial Re.

NOTE II: As predicted, the scamsters at MOS, POT and AGU got lumped today. That’s all.

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End Game

What’s the end game, you ponder? Well for me, it’s all about food and guns. Get your food game up and your gun game ready.

Here in NY, next thing you know, homeless men are eating your best friends brains, like Night of the Living Dead. I am well prepared for such events, with a portable safe, stacked with 30k in cash and 50k in precious gems. And, I have a large bin, ready for mobile usage, filled with food.

“The Fly” all all about winning, even when the country is losing. So, it’s my duty, as a patriot, to keep the “The Fly’s” state of perpetual “winship” intact, if you know what I mean.

Frankly, I’m making a bundle in my oil shorts. XOM is worth $50 tops, with oil down here. Fuck what Cramer says, that son of a bitch trades lower.

I don’t have the balls to get short down here, in any real size. Instead, I intend to build upon my 9% YTD gains, through smaller trades.

At the present, I like short oil/long guns.

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Fly Buys: SWHC, RGR

I bought 25,000 SWHC around $3 and 5,000 RGR @ $6.77 ish.

Disclaimer: If you buy RGR and SWHC because of this post, when the revolution begins, you will find yourself gunless. And, you may lose money.

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Fuck Your Mustard Seeds

Believe me, I am not going to turn this classy joint into some sort of fucked up internet infomercial for my “premium products.” We worked really hard on developing and rolling out the product. So, I had to give it a little face time.

For those of you who signed up, thank you very much. For those of you who did not, you are now my enemies.

As for this tape:

The assholes in the government are fucking brain dead. The market says “BOOOO!” to the Citi deal, mainly because we all know C is dead. On top of that, we have a serious problem in the commercial Re space.

I am telling you now, the mess in Commerical Re is going to make the banks look like a fucking 3 year olds birthday party. What the fuck are they going to do with all of those damn buildings?

Once again, shorting ESS, FRT, MAC and SLG makes sense. Just so you know, I gave a few new picks in The PPT and I will have no intention of sharing them here.

Don’t mind me, I’m just being an asshole.

With my money, I want to lean on the euro here, via DRR. As for my longs: none of them are really significant or worthy to speak of.

I am not buying or selling anything, as tempting as it is. The only thing I am fixing to do is bring cash levels up to 60%, while gingerly adding, on occasion, to my robust ERY/DUG positions.

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My PPT Sales Pitch

Let me know how I did. Thanks.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWRb9bqB-Y&feature=channel_page 450 300]

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THE PPT IS HERE!

Just so you know, I am wearing a tuxedo, top hat and holding a cane for the festivities. I hope you are dressed likewise.

I’ve been in the money management business for a long time. I’ve traded in the worst markets known to upright walking apes, and the best. I am a stock market junky, who spends more time reading research reports and mulling over equity data points on a weekly basis, than most investment professionals do in a year.

Anyone who reads my site knows the market belongs to “The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana, in a variety of ways—most obvious is my ability to book gains month in and month out— in a very “ho-hum, nothing to see here” sort of way, if I might be so bold as to say so. Investing comes easy to me. I offer no apologies.

Look, I can make this pitch page into some boring/lame excuse to subscribe to The PPT, giving you all sorts of pomp promises about the greatness of the product and my market hand. However, instead of doing that, just know this, I created The PPT, with the help of my IT guy, to further perfect my researching methods. I use it all day, everyday, prior to making investment decisions.

The PPT, all humor aside, saves me hours of time in research, cutting through all the bullshit, allowing me to isolate companies or etf’s worth investigating further. It is not the holy grail. However, it is, unequivocally, the best investment tool ever created, and by the way, has the blessings of all of the stock Gods.

In laymans terms, The PPT is an analytic engine that was created to grade stocks, based upon a variety of parameters—including both technical and fundamental data points. In addition, we’ve weaved in the price action of commodities (oil, gas, metals, agriculture), currencies (yen, dollar) and t-bills into our scores, all based upon historical correlating factors, and how they affect the share prices of the overall market and/or specific sectors. The system is not a slave to technical or fundamental analysis. It was designed to acknowledge both and, based upon my egregious experiences with other services, offers a much higher degree of market timing accuracy. And, let’s not forget, I created this damn thing. I am, without a doubt, much smarter than you. Indeed.

Finally, in addition to The PPT engine, I will provide direct assistance to subscribers, for no additional fee, which includes access to my top 10 positions, real time buys/sells, and custom screens worth perusing, on a nightly basis. It’s also worth noting, myself and other iBankCoin contributors will host a subscriber only blog and investment forum, all designed to enhance your “sub Fly” investment performance.

I hope you enjoy the product and make great use of it.

NOTE: Exclusive for PPT subscribers, I have a fairly in depth analysis up now, titled: “Betting Against Texas.”

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Trading With the Gods

If you did not read Chart Addict’s post, regarding handcuffing strange men to metal pipes, I strongly suggest doing so. Great stuff.

I want to expand upon what he said, with a little “Fly twist.”

I have tried all sorts of investment methods. During my career, I have been a Warren Buffett type of investor, bond guy, small cap guy, big cap guy, niche play guy, day trader, swing trade and finally, what I am now: “don’t give a fuck ’cause I am right guy.”

Everyone out there, trying to bank some coin in the markets, will endure staggering losses. It’s part of the game. However, with experience you can skirt dumb rookie mistakes, most likely executed by most of you retards— day in and day out.

My “Godliness” came to me, in increments, after the crash of 2000. Naturally, I made obscene coin in 98-2000; but who didn’t? However, only after wiping out my personal brokerage account, within a few quick weeks in 2000, did I learn the value of “Trading with the Gods.”

See, “The Gods” don’t give a shit about bull markets or bear. It’s important to understand your risk threshold and NEVER approach it. All of my big mistakes came when I was pressured to cover a short or sell out a long, due to margin issues. During the years of 2001-2003, I pigeon holed myself, trading only on a cash basis, fucking around with big dividend stocks and distressed debt. An experience of solitude, to say the least. But it gave me time to see things in slow motion, instead of the knee jerk action of idiot high beta stocks.

If you think stocks are stupid, you should see the bullshit that takes place in junk bonds. But that’s a whole new topic.

Before I execute a trade, my mind is already set on where that stock should be, within 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or even 6 months time. And, I always have a general thesis to trade around. For example, in 2006 I loved oil/gas. In 2007 I was a big restaurant/beverage fan. In 2008 I was all about shorting the shit out of China and banks. And in 2009 I am all about shorting commercial Re and oil.

The market runs in cycles and it is important to identify what cycle we are in, prior to setting a thesis.

After that, you need to understand that even though you feel a stock like BAC should go to zero within 6 months, it can triple in two, before going lower. NEVER put yourself in a situation that will force you out of a position, because “the pain is too great.” Whatever plan you have in your little head will likely be tested, via egregious losses. Be prepared for losses.

Fuck all of the greed. Greed is good, but it bankrupts more people than a drunken CDO manager at a Bear Sterns annual BBQ.

I view investing like driving on a road. I know where my destination is, short VNO, BXP, ESS, KIM etc. However, on the way, I might drive off road for a quick snack (scalp trades) or take a nap (cash). Nonetheless, at the end of the day, I know where I am going; and I know that I will be right.

Hence, “Trading with the Gods.”

UPDATE: Santelli still on fire.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlcJOukNsAM&feature=subscription 450 300]

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