iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

Art Hogan Here We Come

Art Hogan’s infamous bottom call of 7,800 and change shall and will be broken soon, much to the chagrin of Andy Swan. Men in tight green leotards were buying stocks today, with the fervor of small head lice inside a bottle of vinegar. As you know, they were run over by large monster trucks today.

I, on the other hand, roamed my office, while listening to the music of the Gods. And, I ordered the burning of obscene amounts of incense. I ought to be careful, for the love of privacy. Soon enough the fire department will be dispatched to my office—no doubt.

With the market closing near the lows, I find myself making accurate calls, but not fully taking advantage of the slide. I find myself here, in a most egregious fashion, long stocks.

This is concerning, since I espouse the belief of much lower equity prices. To hell in a hand basket, I’ve done lost my mind and marbles.

Thanks to the abject failure of the U.S. Treasury, the market will go lower than any of you goat fuckers imagined. The pain will be so severe and so dreadful, you will wish and pray for a howitzer shell to the face.

With my money, at the close, I tilted my shorts to outweigh my longs. However, I still have lots of cleaning up to do. My guess, sometime tomorrow, I will figure this madness out and begin trading without manners, but with a certain amount of certitude.

Top pick: [[EEV]]

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65 comments

  1. Market Fool

    Homo hammers for every stock on the exchange via BIDU style men in leo-fuck-tard!

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  2. Jakegint

    Bumped:

    Splain somethin’ to me Loosey:

    Why is the SPX down 2.58% end of day and the SPY (admittedly, still trading) down only 1.40%?

    that’s 118 bips, and that’s about where the spread was at 3:59 too.

    ________

    Update: SPY @$85.54 (down 1.09%)

    ___

    What gives, market denizens?

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  3. de

    whad you call a fly in a blender?

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  4. The Fly

    De:

    Jamba Juice?

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  5. Small Fry

    How is HK unchanged from Friday close? HOW?!

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  6. Itchy & Scratchy

    Here’s to The Jamba Juice then:

    Well done oh blended and fruited one.

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  7. goon

    I agree; but the market can ho-ho-ho higher in to christmas and trick people the worst is over then proceed to fuck all the longs in the goat ass.

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  8. Damon

    GOP Senator seeks freeze on Paulson/Haji $$, says he was giving money to his “friends”

    http://inhofe.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=a527339b-802a-23ad-4d93-9721777cb403&Region_id=&Issue_id=

    And this just in……

    CNBC anchors are robots, require no sleep, and are plugged into rechargers at night…..developing…

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  9. Juancho

    It’s time to celebrate with an $8 burrito.

    Odd, no?

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  10. goon

    By the way I have three sisters named Ho, Ho and Julie

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  11. Damon

    Small Fry:

    HK is an institutionally protected stock. They won’t let you have your way with their “girlfriend”

    On the other hand, MOS volatility is all you need for the long and the short of it, as of late. (just be prepared for a potential moon shot on MOS at some point)

    Oh yeah, also, be glad you don’t work for Citibank.

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  12. The Fly

    HK will die, with time.

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  13. Ass Napkin Mike

    Short GameStop.

    ATVI sucked
    ERTS sucked
    BBY sucked
    etc.

    nuff said.

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  14. Gio

    Covered HK today 🙁

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  15. Andy Swan

    While it is true I believe the market is going higher, your description of my wardrobe was misleading. I had on snake-skin cowboy boots, two six-shot revolvers and a canteen of moonshine.

    In other words, I don’t fear your crash. It’s a high noon draw, and someone is about to die. Whether it’s the bear or myself is merely a detail….the time for hedging bets has passed.

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  16. TraderCaddy

    de Says:

    whad you call a fly in a blender?

    Fly nog (if it’s Christmas time).

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  17. JAB

    Bush Said to Tell Aides He Won’t Seek Bailout Funds

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQL5JNw5bVFw&refer=home

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  18. Ass Napkin Mike

    FLY-

    Have you ever farted on your finger and smelled it?

    Dont lie either.

    Everyone has, few admit it.

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  19. Ass Napkin Mike

    Does anyone know what a California Snowball is?

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  20. scum bucket

    whad you call a fly in a blender?

    To dumb mofo above, here’s how the joke is supposed to go:

    Q: What’s black and red and goes ninety miles an hour?

    A: Fly in a blender

    BUA AH AH!

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  21. Fly Swatter

    Fly, you can’t be banking any coin the way you flip flop on an hourly basis. Sorry, we don’t believe you.

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  22. Jakegint

    The following is an explanation of why there’s an age limit on this blog.

    Warning: You may go to Hell if you laugh at this.

    __________

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  23. Topper Harley

    Jake, ROFL at that video

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  24. alphadawgg

    “The pain will be so severe and so dreadful, you will wish and pray for a howitzer shell to the face.”

    That, my friend, is a helluva lot of pain.

    The market is a black bottomless pit. I’m fully convinced that within 3 years from now, we will not have the same financial system as it exists now.

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  25. Jakegint

    The market is a black bottomless pit. I’m fully convinced that within 3 years from now, we will not have the same financial system as it exists now.

    What are you envisioning? Little sheets of yellow and red ration scrip with Barack and/or Michelle’s face on one side and the “Obama Rising Sun” on the other?

    _______

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  26. El Tiberon

    Fly,

    Your obsession with little men in tight green leotards has me gravely concerned…what the fudge pack is that…

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  27. Interactive Brokers Guy
    Interactive Brokers Guy

    I hate when my Broker needs a bailout and has to sell stock just to stay alive!

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  28. colombian guy

    when it al started going down it wasnt all a surprise..
    but 7800 is getting closer everyday.we just have to sort a few bulltraps where naive shorts will get shaken out.

    mr. fly.. as always thanks for the insults, this seems to be the only blog i can learn from, the others treat me well and i get naughty.

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  29. CAP

    ^^
    II

    Fly , is he your cocaine dealer ?

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  30. canuck visionary

    Guess what folks we have to repay our debts. Its that simple. everyone on the planet can.t be leveraged to the hilt. It makes no sense. The japs can.t save enough to finance our bullshit cocaine lifestyles. So the market is different now. Suck it up and play this fucker cause “investors” will be fucked over here.

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  31. Jakegint

    Albert Haaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyneswoooooooorthh!

    Ahm comin’ for yoouuu mothah fluckaahh! ROAAAAAR!!

    _____

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  32. Jakegint

    I say we invade Canuckistan and pillage their natural resources, instead.

    Why should I give up my extravagent lifestyle, after all?

    C’mon, you guys are pretty much a vassel state already, right?

    _______

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  33. mrkcbill

    Jake– he didn’t get that body doing bench presses and eating skinless grilled chicken breasts did he?

    mkrkcbill power rankings

    NY Giants
    Tenn Oilers
    Dallas Cowboys
    Carolina Panthers
    Pittsboig Steelers
    GB Pack
    Ny Jets
    AZ Cardnials

    Super Bowl Winner …”The Stache” over the Boys– As you know the Fly always Wins.

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  34. Jakegint

    You think that’s ‘roid rage? Could be. Whatever works, I say.

    ____________________

    As for your Superbowl lineup… did I read that right?

    Crackboys?

    You think they’ll even get in the playoffs?

    It will be very difficult after their second game with the Giants, you know.

    What, with Romo’s passing arm ripped off and forceably impacted into his posterior execratory orifice, and all.

    And TO in a wheelchair.

    _________

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  35. Jakegint

    How sweet would a Giants-Jets Superbowl be?

    What?

    All the Jets would have to do is get past New England, Pittsburgh and the ‘Stacheans.

    I can dream, can’t I?

    One more for the grizzled, wiley pill popping vet?

    _____

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  36. Tim the Enemy

    Wanted: Stupid People

    I actually had a pretty good day today. The only reason I had a pretty good day today is because I sold a bunch of ES when it was at about 880. The market closed down hard again, so the account holding that ES short did well. My really big account – – the super giant one – – has an even balance of long and short positions, and in spite of being a very large dollar value account, it closed down $300, which is basically unchanged. Ridiculous.

    There are plenty of great technical reasons to go long this market – Gary Savage has laid them out extremely well – but I’m getting the feeling that Gary and others with similar dispositions are in the same boat I was back in the middle of 2007 – – – that is, absolutely right about their point of view, but not having the market cooperate. I know exactly what that feels like. There is chart after chart after chart showing why the market show explode higher (even within the context of a multi-year bear market), but it simply isn’t doing it.

    The reason is pretty obvious; we are headed for a depression, and there is no reason to buy stocks. Unemployment is going to soar. Prices are going to collapse. Crime is going to rapidly escale. Even the survival of the United States in the form we know it today is at stake (and I can’t see how it can survive). So why in God’s name would people buy stocks?

    But there are plenty of stupid people out there, and by God, we need their help. I am serious about this. Without them bidding up stocks (naively thinking that the bottom is in), we bears aren’t going to have any real fun again. Where’s Ben Stein when you need him? Where’s AJC? What about Elaine Garzarelli?

    Again, I’m serious about this. Where as the permabulls? Where are the optimists? We can’t fleece anyone without anyone to fleece. This market is nearly impossible to trade. I wish people would take leave of their senses again. I miss that.

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  37. BOOMER

    Open question to the group:

    I’m wondering if I can use stock trading losses to offset the “income” from an early IRA withdrawal.

    My losses are so great this year that I will never be able to use all of my carry forward deductions in this lifetime. I thought it might be clever to yank some money out of an IRA, offset the losses, and pay the 10% penalty.

    I have a tax guy here, but he’s on vaca. Maybe someone could offer a prelim opinion on this?

    Much thanks.

    Your feedback is appreciated.

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  38. Topper Harley

    More Great Depression 2 forecasts:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Well-Great-Depession-2-2011/story.aspx?guid={B28B49B5-EFD1-4941-B57E-A2BA1545BA09}&dist=hplatest

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  39. alphadawgg

    BOOMER–
    no go.

    you can’t offset ordinary income (IRA withdrawal) with capital losses from your trading account.

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  40. BOOMER

    Alpha – thanks. Follow up for you…

    Can my capital losses of ’08, carried forward, offset capital gains at a rate greater than 3k/yr?

    In other words, am I capped at 3k/yr carried forward, or can I exhaust the capital losses earlier if there are capital gains say in 2009?

    I’ve never had to deal with losses like this, so this is new territory for me. It’s my last question, promise.

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  41. Ubunturocks

    Hey all… Quick question for ya.

    The deal between CLR and ANR was called off this evening. Anyone like ANR short here?

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  42. losing-my-ask

    can you offset real estate capital gains with trading losses?

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  43. Ubunturocks

    Depression by 2011? What an idiot. If he’s gonna call a Depression, at least be realistic and admit it will be here before the end of 2009.

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  44. Jakegint

    Boom, you can write all those losses off next year, provided you make the capital gains to offset them.

    Alpha, correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure that’s the way my accountant does it.

    _____

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  45. Topper Harley

    Jerry Yang steps down as Yahoo CEO:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aItPLtoIBHW4&refer=home

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  46. BOOMER

    That is good news, Jake. Cause there aint no way I am making it back this year. But daggum it, I will next year!

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  47. DB

    Ron Paul keepin it real:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COtE1J5NMbo

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  48. GA

    The market will hit 7500, but not before Thanksgiving. The market is itching to rally right now, even the bears are willing to join for a ride, along with everyone else waiting by the sidelines.

    Get long, but hedge.

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  49. PharmPhucker

    Positives:

    Paulson and Rubin pissing all over each other tonight at the WSJ CEO Council Meeting to call an end to systemic risks to our financial system. The sun is rising tomorrow.

    Mauldin’s email this evening making a sensible case for S&P 500 fair value being in the 1000-1100 range EVEN if this were a phucking depression, which it isn’t. 20-30% bounce on the horizon.

    The world is not coming to an end. It’s just going to rain chicks with dicks all over the Wall Street trading floors. Let the gay Wall Street crowd suck each other’s dicks while the rest of America goes about life as usual.

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  50. omfgitsjd

    I have vice grips for sale for the short squeeze.

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  51. DPeezy

    Dear Trent Edwards:

    Please remember…you’re playing for the _blue_ team. That’s blue team. Please stop throwing the ball to the white/brown team. Ass.

    Thank you,
    Bills Fans

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  52. mrkcbill

    PharmPhucker,

    Just exactly what equities do you want to get long right now?

    Do you own your own business? Blue Sky is over with the way I see it.
    This Automotive debate is not going to be productive for a bull market. There is an every man for himself attitude that is growing by the day.
    BHO will be treated like a substitute teacher. Why is everyone so scared and defensive of the word Depression and 1929.

    Don’t get fooled by your Sat.&Sun. parking lot surveys @ Wal-Mart…mosey on down to Cheesecake Factory on a Tuesday night and see whats shaking…see these fuckers build their proformas on doing business 7 Days a week 32 days a month….

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  53. scum bucket

    I had this funky feeling shortly after the open that they were shooting for SnP 850. Lo and behold where do we end up? Op ex will be interesting, we may get another 100 point rally.

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  54. Juice

    DB – thx 4 the Dr Paul vid … Obama should have him on his team , but he won’t

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  55. Axeman

    Tone here so overwhelmingly negative right now, I just can’t bring myself to get on the short bus.
    As for Tim the Asshat’s inability to find a permabull, that speaks volumes – just nothing to support your position. Keep trying to figure out who the chump at the table is, Tim; seems to be working for you.

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  56. mrkcbill

    from the comment section on TBP
    Sign of the times fun fact: Despite being down about 10% ytd JNJ (165 bn) is now worth the same as BAC (69 bn), C (48 bn), GS (25 bn), MS (12 bn), AIG (5 bn), GM (2 bn) and F (4 bn) combined.

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  57. DPeezy

    Ron Paul on Obama’s team…now THAT would be something! We can all dream, I suppose.

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  58. ottnott

    BOOMER: Jake and alpha have it right.

    IRA withdrawal is treated as ordinary income, and so doesn’t impact your capital gains tax.

    You can use capital losses to offset capital gains, plus claim $3000 in cap losses above the amount you offset. You then carry forward any remaining losses and repeat the procedure above.

    In the hypothetical case of an unhappy invester we will call BUSTER:
    Year 1: 50k in losses and 30k in gains – BUSTER claims a net 3k capital loss and carries forward 17k in losses (50k less 30k netted out less 3k claimed).

    Year 2: 10k in new losses and 20k in gains – BUSTER claims a net 3k capital loss and carries forward 4k in losses (17k plus 10k less 20k netted out and 3k claimed).

    Year 3: 6k in new losses and 60k in gains – BUSTER claims a net 50k in gains and has no losses remaining to carry forward.

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  59. Steph

    FWIW, currently oversold: crude oil; POT; UYG and obviously many individual financials, especially BAC.

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  60. Dave

    From Martketwatch:

    30 ‘leading edge’ indicators of the coming Great Depression 2

    1.
    America’s credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
    2.
    Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new “shadow banking system”
    3.
    Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson’s Wall Street Trojan Horse
    4.
    King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
    5.
    Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
    6.
    AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
    7.
    American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
    8.
    Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
    9.
    State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
    10.
    State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
    11.
    Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
    12.
    Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
    13.
    Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
    14.
    Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
    15.
    Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
    16.
    Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
    17.
    Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
    18.
    Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
    19.
    Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
    20.
    Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
    21.
    Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930’s photos of soup lines
    22.
    Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
    23.
    China’s sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
    24.
    Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
    25.
    The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
    26.
    Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
    27.
    New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
    28.
    Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
    29.
    The “antitaxes” message is a new bubble, a new version of the American
    dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises

    Will the next meltdown, the third of the 21st Century, trigger a second Great Depression? Or will the 2007-08 crisis simply morph into a painful extension of today’s mess to 2011 and beyond, with no new bull market, no economic recovery as our new president hopes?
    Perhaps some of the first 29 problems may be solved separately, but collectively, after building on a failed ideology, they spell disaster. So listen closely to “leading indicator” No. 30:
    At a recent Reuters Global Finance Summit former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead was interviewed. He was also Ronald Reagan’s Deputy Secretary of State and a former chairman of the N.Y. Fed. He says America’s problems will take years and will burn trillions.
    He sees “nothing but large increases in the deficit … I think it would be worse than the depression. … Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody’s and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds.” It’ll get worse because “the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs, all very costly and all done by the government.”

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  61. starving artist

    gulp…

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  62. de

    Cheery! Nite Nite!

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  63. omfgitsjd

    1. The US Dollar has been changing drastically in the background with very little media attention. Up 17% in value against the Euro this year. Rally.

    2. Gas pumps are going down in price increasing liquidity. Rally.

    3. Global interest rates are dropping increasing liquidity. Rally.

    4. Governments have pretty much declared war on the short sellers of banks. Rally.

    5. The S&P 500 had dropped from 1550 to 850 in a very rapid fashion and it’s stochastic recently registered a bullish signal. Rally.

    7. Tons of fear and paranoia generated by the media about economic collapse. Rally.

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  64. tafefreerse

    hello! I love your page 🙂
    If u r looking for Paid Surveys this is the site for you.
    Start advancing your paychecks on http://tinyurl.com/9eeaop

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